BullDozer is a TOTAL REDESIGN @ 45nm. It will have SSE5 and probably much more IPC.
Throwing those words around like it's simple to redesign and increase IPC.
While it wasn't even a complete redesign, look where K10 stands. Hardly noticeable real-world IPC improvements; good multicore scaling as with K8, but newfound single-thread troubles and lackluster frequency headroom.
Netburst was a complete redesign; look where that put Intel. Complete redesigning is very hard. History has favored conservative refinement because you only have so much R&D time.
i think AMD will have the next round, why? because they already put out a native quad-core and are tweaking it to make it more efficient and faster, whereas intel is shooting for their first native quad core with Nehalem. Intel will probably run into problems like AMD is right now.
I think AMD's mistakes with its first try of quad-core are isolated. Did the Athlon64 exhibit such trouble going x2? Well, they did claim they planned ahead while designing the core. Did Intel's Core Duo fall behind Pentium M?
I don't think we could foresee AMD's problems until their odd transition to 65nm. If at 90nm you go from 1 to 2 cores, then with an equally proficient 65nm process, you should be able to go from 2 to 4 of the same cores. Not only is AMD's 65nm process not up to par with previous node shrinks, but AMD made it worse by further complicating the design.
I think the ramp from 65nm to 45nm will be much kinder and easier on AMD than that of the 90nm to 65nm.
I hold my doubts because of lackluster information on how AMD will address leakage (not simple gate leakage but source to drain I.off) which plagued their transition to 65nm and gets worse with further shrinks. If they do it as well as Intel, then their early transition to immersion lithography can help them leapfrog Intel in process quality.
But immersion lithography alone is not kind. Nor is IBM's focus on quality at all cost, since AMD must take costs into higher concern for desktop/mobile production.