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AMD has bottomed - thank god!

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January 11, 2008 4:53:47 AM

I am calling a bottom on amd in a bear market

1st the intel lawsuits should give amd the time to straiten out their problems, look for new stepping in a few months.
2nd i am selling amd again after ..... well..ok.. fine fx-60 really! The ati buy out is going to pay off for amd now.

ok look for amd to hold $6 and trade up to $8 over the next few months - soon as amd releases good news it will travel back to 15 slowly.

amd will bounce off 10 then 15

after that it will fall back in the 12-13 area

look for amd to trade in the 12-15 area this summer

YW!


ps - i just read a post on the 3870 x2 - it rocks 1250p sdmark06 of 9k vs. 7.5k for the 8800GTS

as i predicted the 3870 X2 crossfire will beat out both the dual 9800 card and the 9800GTX

nvidia is hidding the 9800GTX while they figure out how to beat the 2 gpu on on pcb solution - the ati solution is both technically faster, better to cool and cheaper to make. this technology was proven last with the dual gpu 1950 pro by sapphire.

nvidia is holding back the 9800GTX

the 780i 3way is doomed by the third lane at pci-e1.1 speeds, the third card is only 20% effecient

quad and triple crossfire should help amd

dual hd 3870 X2 with intel chips clocked to 4.2-4.5ghz will rule this year with 3dmark06 scores over 25k

nvidia stock will fall by 50%

More about : amd bottomed god

January 11, 2008 5:51:06 AM

All i can say is for everyone;s sake lets hope AMD has bottomed.

Ouch for Nvidia lol btw
January 11, 2008 5:57:25 AM

yawn..
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January 11, 2008 6:24:56 AM

id pay this, everything said was straight forward and legit. (so far)
January 11, 2008 6:25:38 AM

Quote:
The ati buy out is going to pay off for amd now.

So you think the massive profits ATI had before the buyout will put AMD in the pink?
Thier best quarter ever was ~ $50M.
That will probably not cover the interest on the buyout loan.
AMD's biggest problem is thier distance to profitability. They have to cover the capex on Fab 36 and the cash paid out for ATI, before they can break even.
Having said that, Hector has a plan, so it's all good right?
Personnally, I'd say $20 by nov., but only if I dont buy any shares.
January 11, 2008 9:52:37 AM

Even if ati dont deliver bumper profits, them potentially moving into the black will represent positive news for the ATI/AMD group, something lacking of late. A boost to investor confidence, reduction in investor/market unconfidence. To be brutally frank, things cant get much worse for AMD, so the bottom could represent something like todays share price.
January 11, 2008 10:31:49 AM

I few years ago (2002-2003) AMD shares were around $3 usd i decide to spend my $$ in another place .. a few years later they rise to almost $30. No good for me, but at least i was happy with my FX 51 by the time.
January 11, 2008 10:42:19 AM

dragonsprayer said:


quad and triple crossfire should help amd


Nvidia also has triple sli, and the only way triple/quad sli/crossover will help either company is you need to buy more cards. BUT does quad crossfire even sound practical? Triple doesnt even seem realistic, and i have yet to try sli/crossfire for myself. I DOUBT even the rich people will try the quad crossfire (you know the money burners where they ask you to help them burn money on their rig).

dragonsprayer said:
dual hd 3870 X2 with intel chips clocked to 4.2-4.5ghz will rule this year with 3dmark06 scores over 25k


The intel chips that people would be buying would hurt AMD (maybe even hurt as much as the profit of the new cards), and yes that is stating the obvious.

dragonsprayer said:
nvidia stock will fall by 50%


Over how many years is this? Even if no one bought Nvidia i dont think this would happen over a year.

I am hoping AMD catches up, It is time Nvidia lowered those 8800 ultra prices, I haven't seen a single price reduction in the GTX or Ultra prices and the new GTS is literally right next to GTX speeds for $100 less, and yet people continue to buy GTX's.

I hope AMD puts 3 Gpu's on one PCB for their high end, that would for sure totally own nvidia's next high end card.
a b à CPUs
January 11, 2008 10:44:57 AM

Repeat After Me: Dead Cat Bounce
January 11, 2008 10:46:46 AM

well it reached the bottom but its going up now
January 11, 2008 10:48:54 AM

You know what i just hit 18 do you think this is the time to invest in AMD? shoot if i invested now and they made a severe come back that somehow Nvidia went bankrupt, i could end up rich.
January 11, 2008 10:58:10 AM

chaosgs said:
Nvidia also has triple sli, and the only way triple/quad sli/crossover will help either company is you need to buy more cards. BUT does quad crossfire even sound practical? Triple doesnt even seem realistic, and i have yet to try sli/crossfire for myself. I DOUBT even the rich people will try the quad crossfire (you know the money burners where they ask you to help them burn money on their rig).



The intel chips that people would be buying would hurt AMD (maybe even hurt as much as the profit of the new cards), and yes that is stating the obvious.



Over how many years is this? Even if no one bought Nvidia i dont think this would happen over a year.

I am hoping AMD catches up, It is time Nvidia lowered those 8800 ultra prices, I haven't seen a single price reduction in the GTX or Ultra prices and the new GTS is literally right next to GTX speeds for $100 less, and yet people continue to buy GTX's.

I hope AMD puts 3 Gpu's on one PCB for their high end, that would for sure totally own nvidia's next high end card.


Your wrong about quad cross-fire and rich people mate, there is ALWAYS some rich guy who will try the latest and greatest thing. Quad crossfire wont need an inch thick power cable for your pc for a start lol which is one advantage. Just 3/4 inch :) 
January 11, 2008 10:59:03 AM

Plus I think part of the idea is you could start off with one card and just keep adding as your budget allows. You dont have to splash on the complete setup all at once.
January 11, 2008 11:05:54 AM

yeah but by the time you get to the 4th card god knows what new thing has hit the shelf.
January 11, 2008 11:07:01 AM

^^ and that is just over a 4 month period for 4 cards.
January 11, 2008 11:16:23 AM

Crossfire doesn't require 4 of hte same card the way SLI does.

Also, because AMD rebounds one day does not mean its hit bottom. Show me at least 2 weeks without closing below where it opens and I may believe its hit bottom...
January 11, 2008 11:22:35 AM

deuce271 said:
Crossfire doesn't require 4 of hte same card the way SLI does.



:ouch:  :ouch:  :ouch:  :ouch:  What? I didnt know that, But surely there has to be a problem with that, (i dont know all the ATI cards so ima use Nvidia) So assuming Nvida's sli was like crossfire, If i Slied a Geforce 7950 GX2 with a Geforce 8800 GTX wouldn't there be A serious problem somewhere?
a b à CPUs
January 11, 2008 11:24:00 AM

deuce271 said:

Also, because AMD rebounds one day does not mean its hit bottom. Show me at least 2 weeks without closing below where it opens and I may believe its hit bottom...



Hence my earlier comment: It's a Dead Cat Bounce.
January 11, 2008 11:29:42 AM

I think he is just trying to make predictions. Trying to predict the future is both futile and fun.
January 11, 2008 11:37:50 AM

dragonsprayer said:
I am calling a bottom on amd in a bear market

1st the intel lawsuits should give amd the time to straiten out their problems, look for new stepping in a few months.
2nd i am selling amd again after ..... well..ok.. fine fx-60 really! The ati buy out is going to pay off for amd now.

ok look for amd to hold $6 and trade up to $8 over the next few months - soon as amd releases good news it will travel back to 15 slowly.

amd will bounce off 10 then 15

after that it will fall back in the 12-13 area

look for amd to trade in the 12-15 area this summer

YW!


ps - i just read a post on the 3870 x2 - it rocks 1250p sdmark06 of 9k vs. 7.5k for the 8800GTS

as i predicted the 3870 X2 crossfire will beat out both the dual 9800 card and the 9800GTX

nvidia is hidding the 9800GTX while they figure out how to beat the 2 gpu on on pcb solution - the ati solution is both technically faster, better to cool and cheaper to make. this technology was proven last with the dual gpu 1950 pro by sapphire.

nvidia is holding back the 9800GTX

the 780i 3way is doomed by the third lane at pci-e1.1 speeds, the third card is only 20% effecient

quad and triple crossfire should help amd

dual hd 3870 X2 with intel chips clocked to 4.2-4.5ghz will rule this year with 3dmark06 scores over 25k

nvidia stock will fall by 50%


3870 better than 8800? http://www.tomshardware.com/2007/11/15/amd_radeon_hd_38...
looks like the 3870 so quite a bit slower? Could you post some benchmarks or facts to back this up? I really dont care who is better based on someones opinion. I am not a fan boy, I am a gamer so facts, price vs performance is what rules here..

PS- you sound like an ati/amd fanboy fyi... Give us some facts hard evidence, links to legit reviews and actual benchmarks comparing the two...

Oh and I could care less about 3dmark I like actual game benchys... Also are you comparing the 8800gtx single gpu to the 3870 that has dual gpu's on it? If you are LOL I would hope it would be at least a little faster since it has twice the GPU's LOL LOL LOL

Oh and everywhere I have read mentioned that the 780i 3rd lane isnt even close to being saturated so who cares?
January 11, 2008 11:43:29 AM

3870X2 is trying to compete with 9800GX2 not the "old" 8800GTS. I've yet to see a dual 1950 pro in any pertinent benchmark.

The 2900XT did really well in 3dmark scores but was horrible as a high-end card compared to 8800GTX in performance/watt and overall performance
January 11, 2008 11:44:30 AM

chaosgs said:
:ouch:  :ouch:  :ouch:  :ouch:  What? I didnt know that, But surely there has to be a problem with that, (i dont know all the ATI cards so ima use Nvidia) So assuming Nvida's sli was like crossfire, If i Slied a Geforce 7950 GX2 with a Geforce 8800 GTX wouldn't there be A serious problem somewhere?


In your brain perhaps yes lol

on a more serious note, I think ive seen a 2900xt crossfired with a 3870, it kinda worked but not perfectly, but i think it showed there was some flexibility in the whole system.
January 11, 2008 11:47:54 AM

ap90033 said:
3870 better than 8800? http://www.tomshardware.com/2007/11/15/amd_radeon_hd_38...
looks like the 3870 so quite a bit slower? Could you post some benchmarks or facts to back this up? I really dont care who is better based on someones opinion. I am not a fan boy, I am a gamer so facts, price vs performance is what rules here..

PS- you sound like an ati/amd fanboy fyi... Give us some facts hard evidence, links to legit reviews and actual benchmarks comparing the two...

Oh and I could care less about 3dmark I like actual game benchys... Also are you comparing the 8800gtx single gpu to the 3870 that has dual gpu's on it? If you are LOL I would hope it would be at least a little faster since it has twice the GPU's LOL LOL LOL

Oh and everywhere I have read mentioned that the 780i 3rd lane isnt even close to being saturated so who cares?



You still didn't read what he wrote. He's talking about the 3870 x2 vs the soon to be released 9800 dual PCB board AND the yet to be seen 8800 GTX G92 or 9800 GTX(whatever it will be called). So yes, it's a big deal. AMD will have the edge again in high end. I hope this ends up being true as well. This is what AMD needs. Something to call the king of anything right now would be a huge boost for them. The only bad thing about that is they might take the opportunity to over-price these beasts.
January 11, 2008 11:50:51 AM

Nah if the 3870 x2 came out tops i dont think with its parent group being so buggered ati would do that/be allowed to do that by its parent group. i think they would want to gain maximum brownie points all round and price reasonably.
January 11, 2008 12:04:41 PM

dragonsprayer said:


ps - i just read a post on the 3870 x2 - it rocks 1250p sdmark06 of 9k vs. 7.5k for the 8800GTS


Why would you even bother posting garbage like that without some kind of proof to back it up, or are we supposed to believe that the post you read came directly from God?

Quote:
as i predicted the 3870 X2 crossfire will beat out both the dual 9800 card and the 9800GTX

nvidia is hidding the 9800GTX while they figure out how to beat the 2 gpu on on pcb solution - the ati solution is both technically faster, better to cool and cheaper to make. this technology was proven last with the dual gpu 1950 pro by sapphire.

nvidia is holding back the 9800GTX


Again please provide the proof that your "prediction" is true. I need to see some benchmarks. The ones I currently see show ATI getting crushed on the high end. Sorry, you loose.
January 11, 2008 12:08:55 PM

Bounced maybe, but not bottom... There are plenty who will be trying to get out of AMD at $6.
January 11, 2008 12:09:23 PM

blackened144 said:
Why would you even bother posting garbage like that without some kind of proof to back it up, or are we supposed to believe that the post you read came directly from God?

Quote:
as i predicted the 3870 X2 crossfire will beat out both the dual 9800 card and the 9800GTX

nvidia is hidding the 9800GTX while they figure out how to beat the 2 gpu on on pcb solution - the ati solution is both technically faster, better to cool and cheaper to make. this technology was proven last with the dual gpu 1950 pro by sapphire.

nvidia is holding back the 9800GTX


Again please provide the proof that your "prediction" is true. I need to see some benchmarks. The ones I currently see show ATI getting crushed on the high end. Sorry, you loose.



THANK YOU ANOTHER SANE PERSON!!!
January 11, 2008 12:44:16 PM

His arguement regarding the AMD x2 GPUs is absolutely true. No need to benchmark tech specs. It IS a)faster core clock b)easier to cool c) cheaper to produce.

How can you prove a prediction anyway....

Some people are way too high strung here....
January 11, 2008 12:49:47 PM

Thanatos421 said:
His arguement regarding the AMD x2 GPUs is absolutely true. No need to benchmark tech specs. It IS a)faster core clock b)easier to cool c) cheaper to produce.

How can you prove a prediction anyway....

Some people are way too high strung here....


The problem with all that is everyone said the same thing about the new DX10 cards from ATi and Nvidia over a year ago.. And you know what? They were all wrong.. Not only was ATI a year late, their performance was not up to snuff. So until I see the benchmarks proving they can compete on the high end, then I will not believe it. Period. You can predict all you want, it didnt work last time. Maybe my requirements for proof are too high, but I blame ATI for that.. They didnt deliver on the performance for the 2xxx series or the 3xxx series and you still cant show me the proof. You still loose.
January 11, 2008 12:52:09 PM

Thanatos421 said:
Some people are way too high strung here....


How can you say that? HOW CAN YOU SAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY THAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT? I'm not high strung! If you say that one more time, I'm going to hunt you down and go medeival on you and every person you've ever met! Do you understand me? Do you get it? Huh? HUH? HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUH? AAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:pt1cable: 

Edit: P.S. Dead cat bounce. No doubt about it. :) 
January 11, 2008 1:36:18 PM

AMD @ $15 ? I LOL'D !!
January 11, 2008 2:12:55 PM



The question is not how high will AMD bounce, but how far before it falls back to the ground or below. The entire market is up at the moment because of the proposed buyout of Countrywide by BofA (at taxpayer expense, if you read the fine print) and the promise by Bernake that the Fed will attack the housing problem with cheap (read deflated) money. As soon as the Arabs decide they want more of the worthless dollars for their oil, all commodities will go up in price and the market will plunge again, taking AMD with it. Other than some succussful video cards, AMD has shown nothing that makes money. Just the opposite, many of their chip prices are now falling, like the 5000+ BE going from $130 to $90 at Newegg. That means less money coming in from older style chip sales while there are few new style chips sales.

No, my money is going to be invested in other things than AMD for now.
January 11, 2008 2:15:51 PM

Sailer I'm with you and the other guy who said hed set fire to his nuts before buying AMD. :) 
January 11, 2008 2:33:29 PM

Thanatos421 said:
You still didn't read what he wrote. He's talking about the 3870 x2 vs the soon to be released 9800 dual PCB board AND the yet to be seen 8800 GTX G92 or 9800 GTX(whatever it will be called). So yes, it's a big deal. AMD will have the edge again in high end. I hope this ends up being true as well. This is what AMD needs. Something to call the king of anything right now would be a huge boost for them. The only bad thing about that is they might take the opportunity to over-price these beasts.



Uh dude did you see my mention of the 3870 that has dual gpu's? Isnt that the 3870x2? if not sorry but if it is, it seems he is trying to say here that it smokes everything Nvidia has and will have yet we have NO PROOF.... Hence "fanboy" status....
January 11, 2008 2:36:37 PM

And if anyone doesnt think that the rats are jumpin off the sinking ship, how can this be explaned?

http://www.redflagdeals.com/deals/main.php/electronics/

A full 4000+ X2 system, including Vista, for $309 CDN. Looks like Mike Dell might be havin a bit of a fire sale on his stacked up green chips! :) 

January 11, 2008 2:41:43 PM

OlSkoolChopper said:
Sailer I'm with you and the other guy who said hed set fire to his nuts before buying AMD. :) 


Other then the respect I have for my body :ouch:  , there's this female up in Reno who would object highly if I did that. :pfff:  I think I'll let her handle the subject in question.
January 11, 2008 2:46:26 PM

Well the MACD Histogram's inverse structure indicated that high volume sell offs along with the stochastic trends were based on weak stomached investors. The trend progression in the 13 and 50 day EMA indicated that we will see a solid double bottom before things turn around.
January 11, 2008 2:48:23 PM

mmmm ....solid double bottom .....mmmmmmmmm
January 11, 2008 2:48:42 PM

He's making a prediction based on the facts that we know, and as others have pointed out, they are reasonable and may prove to be true. Nobody knows for 100%, but speculating and having some fun tyring to put the pieces together to form a logical predication in the way he did does NOT make him a fan boy... I know you said otherwise about yourself, but when you vigorously dispute his opinion the way you did you kind of come off as one yourself :) 

I think where we're REALLY going to see the 3870x2 take off is when two of those suckers are Crossfired. ATI's multi-card solutions are way ahead of nVidias at the moment, and are just going to keep getting better. I'll definately pick up a 3870x2 because of the whole price/performance/heat stuff, but also because in a year or two if it starts slowing down on me I can just toss in another one hehe :) 
January 11, 2008 2:54:57 PM

spoonboy said:
mmmm ....solid double bottom .....mmmmmmmmm



Im not sure if a double bottom is such a hot thing.....if its anything like a double chin, im not interested.

:kaola: 
January 11, 2008 2:56:13 PM

3870 X2 scores like 8500~9000 points in 3dmark 06 @ 2550x1600. the ocworkbench link (with the pics) seems down.

According to theinquirer (mmm), it seems the B3 are fine and coming soon. Next stepping won't be B4, it will be Cx, 45nm shanghai core...

January 11, 2008 3:11:30 PM

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jan2008/...

sorry run that by me again, how much does it cost intel to make a cpu!? between $15-$50!?!? I had never imagined we payed such a mark-up. I dont want to start another thread on this, it might not be news to some, but flaming heck gromit!
January 11, 2008 3:15:58 PM

I'd at least wait until after the earnings report next week to declare any "bottom". And yes, it could get worse...
January 11, 2008 3:18:13 PM

spoonboy said:
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jan2008/...

sorry run that by me again, how much does it cost intel to make a cpu!? between $15-$50!?!? I had never imagined we payed such a mark-up. I dont want to start another thread on this, it might not be news to some, but flaming heck gromit!



When R&D and new fab co$t$ $tart with "B", a$ in "billion$", there has to be some pretty huge markup. Innovation doesn't happen on grocery-store margins (though it'd be a real nice, albeit short, perk for the end user).
January 11, 2008 3:52:04 PM

spoonboy said:
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jan2008/...

sorry run that by me again, how much does it cost intel to make a cpu!? between $15-$50!?!? I had never imagined we payed such a mark-up. I dont want to start another thread on this, it might not be news to some, but flaming heck gromit!


The cost of making an individual chip has been low for years, whether it was from Intel, AMD, or whoever. You have to remember that Intel need to make a profit per chip produced, has to pay for all the R&D, pay for all the failed attempts at making better chips, etc. This is business, and it should be expected.

I think there's a few other interesting lines in that article, like "Advanced Micro Devices has enlisted New York State's Attorney General to open another front in a longstanding antitrust battle with rival Intel". Who is the Attorney General working for, the state or AMD? Keep in mind that this particular A.G. has formerly helped AMD get a factory in his state, so he has a personal interst in AMD. So his investigation is also called a conflict of interest.
Further, "Yet even making the case that Intel unfairly priced its products could be difficult, according to Mercury Research's McCarron" because "There's a distinction that needs to be drawn between aggressive pricing and dumping". Aggressive pricing is perfectly legal. It just involves selling a product cheaper than normal, but still making a profit. Dumping is when the product is sold below cost so as to hurt the competition. It can't be shown that Intel has dumped any chips.

Please don't get the wrong idea and call me an Intel fanboy. I have used AMD chips for the past 7 years. I'm just trying to point out the business and legal aspects of this.
January 11, 2008 4:08:56 PM

Just to give dragon sprayer a little support, he said back on August 6th that he was certain AMD would go well below $10. At that time it was still trading in the $12-$15 range. It took some time, but as we all know it tanked.

Now, don't get me wrong, I am not saying that DS is some sort of fortune teller, just that he does have a pretty decent grasp of what's going on, and that he can be right, just like everyone else CAN be right.

I say cut him some slack. He isn't doing anything bad, just making some predictions and having some fun.
January 11, 2008 4:16:56 PM

weskurtz81 said:
Just to give dragon sprayer a little support, he said back on August 6th that he was certain AMD would go well below $10. At that time it was still trading in the $12-$15 range. It took some time, but as we all know it tanked.

Now, don't get me wrong, I am not saying that DS is some sort of fortune teller, just that he does have a pretty decent grasp of what's going on, and that he can be right, just like everyone else CAN be right.

I say cut him some slack. He isn't doing anything bad, just making some predictions and having some fun.


Can't speak for anybody else, but I hope DS is right about AMD recovering, though I think the timeframe will be longer. I do believe that AMD will drop down again, but so will the entire market. By itself, such a drop would be of no fault by AMD. The major need for AMD is to get a working B3 Phenom out and to get a working Barcelona back into the system. If AMD can do that, and the economy picks up so that business begins buying again, Things should go well. But for the moment, I wouldn't invest in much of anything, be it AMD or GE. I think the bottom has yet to be seen.
January 11, 2008 4:25:08 PM

I pretty much stopped investing, with the exception of some stock I wasn't able to get out of in time, and that I didn't have a stop on.... stupid me!

Yeah, as you said.... other than that, I am not even touching the market. I could try to be a short seller, but I am not even willing to do that. I pretty much stopped investing about 2 1/2 months ago. I am focusing my time on more conservative means of making money.
!