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 Thread : AMD Reports 4Q Earnings; (170)M - Wall Street is Pleased
 
Technology Coordinato r
Factboy
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n°1781846
01-11-2008 at 07:59:41 PM

Update: Taking ATI out of the equation, AMD loses only 170M, and Wall Street is very pleased with the news as the stock jumps up over 10%.

Update: 4Q earnings will be announced Thursday (17/01/2008) after the market closes.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeed [...] 000421.htm

Quote :

Big Losses Projected At Struggling AMD

January 11, 2008: 04:25 AM EST


SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones) -- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. will report fourth- quarter results next week with Wall Street projecting bigger losses at the struggling chip giant.

Analysts expect AMD (AMD) to report a loss of 36 cents on revenue of $1.79 billion, compared with a loss of 4 cents, on revenue of 1.77 billion in the year-ago period, according to Thomson Financial.

The Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company has been struggling to become profitable over the past year as it faced stiffer competition from archrival Intel Corp. ( INTC) and grappled with the cost of a major acquisition.

AMD reported a wider-than-expected third-quarter loss of $396 million in October, largely due to a $120 million charge for its merger with ATI Technologies in 2006. The company has also struggled with product roll-out delays and mounting operating costs that some analysts warned were not sustainable.

"We are lowering our estimates to reflect continued execution missteps, an increase in operating expenses due to engineering costs and continued pressure from Intel's roadmap," analyst Doug Freedman of American Technology Research said in a research note.

Analysts believe AMD could bounce back as a stronger competitor, especially with the graphics technologies it now has after the ATI acquisition. The company also got a boost recently from an Abu Dhabi firm, which invested $622 million in AMD.

AMD executives vowed last month that his company will be back in the black in 2008, and that recent production missteps will not be repeated.

"We blew it, and we're very humbled by it," CEO Hector Ruiz told analysts in December. "We're going to learn from it, and we're not going to do that again."

However, analysts say concerns about weakening demand in North America make it harder for AMD to stage a comeback.

"For AMD, the issue is how much did they get to participate in what is a comparatively weak North America, compared to the footprint they have all around the world," said analyst Crawford Del Prete of International Data Corp.

AMD tends to do quite well in emerging markets, he said, but it's not unclear if that was enough for the company in the fourth quarter.

"It's still pretty tough times for AMD right now," he added.



So the magic mark AMD needs to hit is a loss of 200M. If they lose more than that, expect the stock to go down. If they lose less than that, it wouldn't suprise me if it shot back up to $10+ a share.


I originally estimated a larger loss, but I'm going to revise and say (300)M to (350)M loss is my best guess.

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Message edited by Technology Coordinato r on 01-18-2008 at 07:30:19 PM

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ritesh_lau d
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n°1781856
01-11-2008 at 08:23:06 PM

I'm guessing a larger net loss due to a much larger than expected goodwill impairment charge. :fou:

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OlSkoolCho pper
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n°1781858
01-11-2008 at 08:25:33 PM

ritesh_laud wrote :

I'm guessing a larger net loss due to a much larger than expected goodwill impairment charge. :fou:



Word.

pausert20
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n°1781860
01-11-2008 at 08:26:46 PM

I'm expecting a larger loss than $200 million. I think it will be closer to $320 million.

I also expect Intel to hit record numbers in profit both Gross and Net.


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spoonboy
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n°1781874
01-11-2008 at 08:58:49 PM

TechnologyCoordinator wrote :

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeed [...] 000421.htm

Quote :

Big Losses Projected At Struggling AMD

January 11, 2008: 04:25 AM EST


SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones) -- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. will report fourth- quarter results next week with Wall Street projecting bigger losses at the struggling chip giant.

Analysts expect AMD (AMD) to report a loss of 36 cents on revenue of $1.79 billion, compared with a loss of 4 cents, on revenue of 1.77 billion in the year-ago period, according to Thomson Financial.

The Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company has been struggling to become profitable over the past year as it faced stiffer competition from archrival Intel Corp. ( INTC) and grappled with the cost of a major acquisition.

AMD reported a wider-than-expected third-quarter loss of $396 million in October, largely due to a $120 million charge for its merger with ATI Technologies in 2006. The company has also struggled with product roll-out delays and mounting operating costs that some analysts warned were not sustainable.

"We are lowering our estimates to reflect continued execution missteps, an increase in operating expenses due to engineering costs and continued pressure from Intel's roadmap," analyst Doug Freedman of American Technology Research said in a research note.

Analysts believe AMD could bounce back as a stronger competitor, especially with the graphics technologies it now has after the ATI acquisition. The company also got a boost recently from an Abu Dhabi firm, which invested $622 million in AMD.

AMD executives vowed last month that his company will be back in the black in 2008, and that recent production missteps will not be repeated.

"We blew it, and we're very humbled by it," CEO Hector Ruiz told analysts in December. "We're going to learn from it, and we're not going to do that again."

However, analysts say concerns about weakening demand in North America make it harder for AMD to stage a comeback.

"For AMD, the issue is how much did they get to participate in what is a comparatively weak North America, compared to the footprint they have all around the world," said analyst Crawford Del Prete of International Data Corp.

AMD tends to do quite well in emerging markets, he said, but it's not unclear if that was enough for the company in the fourth quarter.

"It's still pretty tough times for AMD right now," he added.



So the magic mark AMD needs to hit is a loss of 200M. If they lose more than that, expect the stock to go down. If they lose less than that, it wouldn't suprise me if it shot back up to $10+ a share.


I originally estimated a larger loss, but I'm going to revise and say (300)M to (350)M loss is my best guess.



Where does the 200 come from tc?

cheers

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Technology Coordinato r
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n°1781896
01-11-2008 at 10:08:47 PM

spoonboy wrote :

Where does the 200 come from tc?

cheers




Code :
  1. Outstanding Shares * Earnings Per Share = Net Income



Or in AMD's case:

Code :
  1. Outstanding Shares * Loss Per Share = Net Loss



Actual numbers:

Code :
  1. 554,570,000 shares * Analyst estimate of .36 loss per share = $199,645,200





Thanks for asking, I should have included that in my original post.


(PS: I highlighted the positive part in green just for you Spoon!)

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Message edited by Technology Coordinato r on 01-11-2008 at 10:11:17 PM

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turpit
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n°1782065
01-12-2008 at 08:30:02 AM

Well, a $200 miilion loss, while not good in and of itself, could be veiwed as good for AMD at this point. It would be a second consecutive quarter of movement in the right direction, i.e a 'trend' towards profitability. Of course, that discounts last quarters $120 million~ish ATI payments. If you take that into account, then a $200 million~ish loss could be viewed as stagnation. Im quite interested to see what the report states, Ruizs comments and how it impacts stocks.


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yay
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n°1782072
01-12-2008 at 09:18:25 AM

Good company + poor leadership + "evolved" competition + Bad economic state = current AMD.... its sad.

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Reynod
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n°1782083
01-12-2008 at 11:00:35 AM

Since we are all having a bet on the figures due to be released my prediction is:

- $360 million loss.

Hector will also resign ... or goto Freescale (old AMD Peoples Home).



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Technology Coordinato r
Factboy
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n°1782172
01-12-2008 at 06:52:03 PM

yay wrote :

Good company + poor leadership + "evolved" competition + Bad economic state = current AMD.... its sad.



Excellent summary


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spoonboy
If it's not from Yorkshire it's sh1te
Profile: old hand
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n°1782246
01-12-2008 at 09:52:55 PM

TechnologyCoordinator wrote :

Code :
  1. Outstanding Shares * Earnings Per Share = Net Income



Or in AMD's case:

Code :
  1. Outstanding Shares * Loss Per Share = Net Loss



Actual numbers:

Code :
  1. 554,570,000 shares * Analyst estimate of .36 loss per share = $199,645,200





Thanks for asking, I should have included that in my original post.


(PS: I highlighted the positive part in green just for you Spoon!)



Thanks alot TC, I think your an ok guy too by the way. Nothing like a good argument though is there eh? lol

Heard hooters is doing a 'one feel with every 4 beers promotion this wednesday' grab chopper and lets check it out lol

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spoonboy
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n°1782247
01-12-2008 at 09:57:57 PM

ritesh_laud wrote :

I'm guessing a larger net loss due to a much larger than expected goodwill impairment charge. :fou:



Yet but asset write downs isnt quite as telling as actual cash in - cash out. Im sticking my scrawny neck out here and saying net income before write downs as -$90,000,000

Technology Coordinato r
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n°1782254
01-12-2008 at 10:18:48 PM

spoonboy wrote :

Heard hooters is doing a 'one feel with every 4 beers promotion this wednesday' grab chopper and lets check it out lol



Count me in! There's one in Troy (Michigan).


Message edited by Technology Coordinato r on 01-12-2008 at 10:19:01 PM

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wolveriner o79
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n°1782255
01-12-2008 at 10:24:02 PM

Google lists AMD shares as ~550 million, but yahoo lists it as ~600 million.

so the loss would be b/w 199 and 217 million.

With all the (questionable) activity AMD did with stock trading and offers this year, I'm not really sure how much outstanding shares there are.

However, I don't know if they lost that much. I mean, yes they sucked in terms of product, but it was Q4 (you have to suck really badly to not make decent money during Christmas time). I think what we'll see is a bigger loss than 200 million before some random charge that then brings the "reported loss" to less than 200 million (like 50-100). Which would probably make the stock go up to 8-9.

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Technology Coordinato r
Factboy
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n°1782256
01-12-2008 at 10:29:04 PM

wolverinero79 wrote :

Google lists AMD shares as ~550 million, but yahoo lists it as ~600 million.




Not to rain on your parade, but both Yahoo and AMD list the same number, 554,570,000.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMD (Shares outstanding)
http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=AMD (Shares)


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gr8mikey
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n°1782273
01-12-2008 at 11:34:15 PM

while everyone is throwing numbers around, I'm going to say 250 millioin operating loss and a much larger loss on goodwill impairment writeoff. Total loss could be a billion or more. I am going out on a limb here, but why else would the stock tank so bad lately if it was just the same thing that has happened the first 3 quarters this year?
My guess is they are going to get all the trash off the balance sheet that they can since 2007 is gonna go down as one of the worst in the company's history anyway. Then hopefully the 2008 to 2007 financial comparisons will look much more favorable (hopefully).

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surrealdea l
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n°1782274
01-12-2008 at 11:37:27 PM

"Analysts believe AMD could bounce back as a stronger competitor, especially with the graphics technologies it now has after the ATI acquisition. The company also got a boost recently from an Abu Dhabi firm, which invested $622 million in AMD. "

I guess that makes them VIAble.

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gr8mikey
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n°1782276
01-12-2008 at 11:43:15 PM

surrealdeal wrote :


I guess that makes them VIAble.



Yes! we all know how that on-board S3 ProSavage video saved the day for VIA!


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n°1782277
01-12-2008 at 11:43:16 PM