"They are feeling the pressure," said analyst Rob Enderle of the Enderle Group. "Everyone thought they were going to go through some pain (with the ATI acquisition), but I would bet you they never thought there was going to be this much pain."
"They got too happy, and now here we are with a pipeline of products that is increasingly weak and a cost structure that is out of whack and chips that are slow and late and still have problems," said Hans Mosesmann of Raymond James Financial Inc. "The (business) model is busted."
"The pressures on management are monumental," Mosesmann said. "It is tough when you are trying to be a global player and competing for customers with Intel. When you have continued delays and issues with all major new products, it gets tougher and tougher. They are running out of money, and they continue to lose lots of money. I don't know how they fix it."
"The company has a sort of natural tendency in times of trouble to shut down communications and put on a happy face and say everything is getting better," Brookwood said. "Until they start showing they can deliver (advanced chips) in volume and at operating speed that put them closer to (Intel's best chips), the skeptics certainly have every right to remain skeptical."
"People are hesitant to step in," Acree said. "There are fearful sellers and a vacuum of buyers, and no one has enough information to take a chance."
There are balancng opinions, and overall it is a reasonable articel.
Analysts are about as good as predictors of the future as seismographs are at predicting an earth quake.
the analysts looks at the numbers from the past to predict the future and tells you nothing about what is really happening.
take the tech bubble - all the buy's and after market tanks 20-30% its time to sell! useless
everyone new amd chips had issues months ago - now that things are about to probably get better the stock has lost 80% of its value, the geniuses that paid 100's of thousands to tell their clients how to invest are telling us "wow amd has problems"
wow what geniuses! just like the seismograph is useless in predicting earth quakes they only tell you after the fact how big they are - we all know how bad amd cpu;s preform and how bad the r600 was 7 months ago or longer!
the products are coming along its market perception of nvidia superior peformance that has to be changed.
business model is busted? not!
amd speed is nothing and speed is everything, intel just did what amd did with faster and now even faster chips.
I would agree that the model is not busted. But the guy who's building the model is.
All the way back in the time peroid of the 939, they guy on top should have been building a better chip. Instead, he panicked and laid out what was essencially a server platform with a couple overworked chips and called it the 4x4, later known as the QFX. That should never have happened. The AM2 was a good idea, but it lacked any performance advantage. It should have had things like the 6000+, 6400+ and 5000+ BE from the start. It may not have been as fast as C2D, but it would have sold a lot better then than AM2 ended up selling. And then there was the endless string of lies from management. I like the concept of Phenom (K10), but I don't like the execution. Even then, the recall/stop shipment, about the errata leaves me wondering. If the errata isn't that bad, just something that only occurs in labratory conditions, I don't see why there should have been such a fuss made over it. So I wonder, was there something worse which isn't being admitted?
And then there's the 790FX Spider platform. Hardly anyone uses Crossfire in the first place, so why spend so much time and money developing a a motherboard that can use up to 4 video cards? And the 790FX uses the SB600 south bridge which has been causing trouble. Wouldn't the time and money have been better spent getting out a SB700 south bridge and no four card platform?
No, I like the business model. Like Dragonspayer said, the analyists can tell about past mistakes, but nothing about the future. But I also think that those past mistakes should be studied so that they aren't repeated.
---------------
Evil lurks in the databanks as it lurked in the streets of yesteryear. But it was never the streets that were evil.
Are these the same analysts that are predicting the US economy is going to collapse due to mortgage foreclosures and defaulting sub-prime loans?
The only credible statements are the comments about AMD paying too much for ATI and assuming too much debt from the acquisition. Talk about an 800lb gorilla!
The Board trimming the management tree of a few dead branches would not be a total surprise, either.
A few more note worthy quotes...
Quote :
Some observers of the personal computer industry say Wall Street's vote of no-confidence is an overreaction.
AMD has several strengths: the largest and strongest engineering team in its history, a productive research partnership with IBM Corp. and some promising new graphics chips. In addition, the company has a plethora of new computer processor chips, and graphics chips for desktop and notebook computers as well as servers, the powerful machines that run business Web sites and other operations.
"Rumors of AMD's death are greatly exaggerated," said analyst Nathan Brookwood
"AMD is not in terminal decline," said analyst Ashok Kumar of CRT Capital Holdings LLC. "They will fix it and turn the ship around. The (personal computer) market needs a credible second source, and AMD is that."
"The (computer makers) don't want to go back to the days when they gave Intel a license to print money," Kumar said.
---------------
Candy asked me if she died if I could go on
Of course I said I couldn't and of course we knew that's wrong
But Candy I said Candy no you can't do that to me
Because you love me way to much for you to ever leave
To be honest amd would have no reason to chuck out its management now, as its fate is currently and for some time to come all in the hands of the engineers working on r680, r700 and the b3 phenoms. All it would do is bring the market optimisim that a turnaround is more certain/less uncertain, but then again just getting the phenoms finished and out the factory gates would have a greater effect than sacking hector. In a very strong sense the horse has already bolted, just have to wait for it to wander back.
Analysts are about as good as predictors of the future as seismographs are at predicting an earth quake.
Obviously you have absolutely no idea how a seismograph works, or what uses it has. It CAN predict earthquakes, AND volcanic eruptions/ measure activity. They can also let us know when foreign countries do nuclear tests!
On a lighter note.. business analysts can do none of this.
[quote]"They are feeling the pressure," said analyst Rob Enderle of the Enderle Group. "Everyone thought they were going to go through some pain (with the ATI acquisition), but I would bet you they never thought there was going to be this much pain."
DELETED
Face facts AMD have entered crappo land, and if the results are going to be as low as we think - ok how many people bought the 2000 series radeons let alone the 3000 series.... And as for BE processors - no one in the trade stocks them yet.....
We were all told AMD have got something up their sleeve, but it seems AMD havent even found it yet either......
Hey AMD, employ Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell - They spun us along for 10 years... They Bankrupted us too, but it has taken them ten years to do it, where Hector Ruz ( or whatever is on his unemployment benefit slip ) only took one a year and a half......
Obviously you have absolutely no idea how a seismograph works, or what uses it has. It CAN predict earthquakes, AND volcanic eruptions/ measure activity. They can also let us know when foreign countries do nuclear tests!
On a lighter note.. business analysts can do none of this.
i do and it can - but so can a fortune teller
there is no way to predict an earth quakes
little quakes do not mean a big one and a big one does not have to have little ones - it works like a glass of water next to bomb and its not much more complicated then that!
ps: i only used that since i was flipping channels and an earth quake made for tv movie was on!
Message edited by dragonsprayer on 01-14-2008 at 10:38:05 PM
---------------
*While we crash and burn, small, low tech, agrarian societies such as the Hmong in the mountains of Laos will continue on without so much as blinking an eye.*
They dont do predictions on a microscale... but on a macro scale earth quakes generally are on a pretty regular schedule (unlike AMD). And there are signs that earth quakes are imminent.
They dont do predictions on a microscale... but on a macro scale earth quakes generally are on a pretty regular schedule (unlike AMD). And there are signs that earth quakes are imminent.
Back when I lived in California, earthquake prediction were a regular thing. Most people seemed to stop paying attention to them though, as too many predictions turned out to be nothing. Either that, or there would be a prediction that read something like "Earth movement shows that there will be an earthquakes sometime in the next ten years". Yeah, and by the time it happens, if it happens at all, I will have forgotten about the prediction.
Back when I lived in California, earthquake prediction were a regular thing. Most people seemed to stop paying attention to them though, as too many predictions turned out to be nothing. Either that, or there would be a prediction that read something like "Earth movement shows that there will be an earthquakes sometime in the next ten years". Yeah, and by the time it happens, if it happens at all, I will have forgotten about the prediction.
seismologists got to make money somehow!
---------------
macgirlfriend:
"Hey I don't get you people, the people on insanely mac were so much nicer"
In the Movie Phenomenon(phenom AMD refrence)John Travolta Gains incredible powers of the mind. At one point in the movie
he predicts an earthquake because he sense's it (Seismoligy refrence)
couple hours later earthquake happens
Analysts get paid more than you because the know much more than you. They are experts at what they do and there observations, opinions and analysis should be taken as such. I'm not saying they're always right but you shouldn't discount them because it's not what you want to hear.
chunkymonster:
Was there some economic news that indicates that the US isn't headed or in a recession? While these aren't the same folks I think they're spot on as well so what's your point?
AMD is in very sad shape right now and I have yet to see any light at the end of the tunnel. In fact the have mislead the consumer every step of the way. They've done so much damage that my server sales person bad mouths them. Pretty soon they'll have to adopt Intel tactics just too survive.
I wouldn't give analysts too much credit. They are just statistitions. They are just good with using numbers in a particular way. They jgenerally work out lots averages, percentages and probabilities. They use statistics and discrete maths. Very similar to accountants actually.
I'm an electronics engineer and I use numbers just as much as they do but I use a lot less statistics and a lot more pure and mechanical maths.
In their job numbers don't have to be exact, they are approximations because they have some leeway. In my job the numbers must be exact or things don't work. At the end of the day its just manipulation of numbers.
End of wierd analyst rant.
P.s I don't like them because they earn 3 times more then me and have an easier job. lol.
