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Analysts on AMD: Business Model Is Busted

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January 14, 2008 1:18:53 PM

http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/technology/01/14/0114amd.html

Some Quotes:

Quote:
"They are feeling the pressure," said analyst Rob Enderle of the Enderle Group. "Everyone thought they were going to go through some pain (with the ATI acquisition), but I would bet you they never thought there was going to be this much pain."

"They got too happy, and now here we are with a pipeline of products that is increasingly weak and a cost structure that is out of whack and chips that are slow and late and still have problems," said Hans Mosesmann of Raymond James Financial Inc. "The (business) model is busted."

"The pressures on management are monumental," Mosesmann said. "It is tough when you are trying to be a global player and competing for customers with Intel. When you have continued delays and issues with all major new products, it gets tougher and tougher. They are running out of money, and they continue to lose lots of money. I don't know how they fix it."

"The company has a sort of natural tendency in times of trouble to shut down communications and put on a happy face and say everything is getting better," Brookwood said. "Until they start showing they can deliver (advanced chips) in volume and at operating speed that put them closer to (Intel's best chips), the skeptics certainly have every right to remain skeptical."

"People are hesitant to step in," Acree said. "There are fearful sellers and a vacuum of buyers, and no one has enough information to take a chance."


There are balancng opinions, and overall it is a reasonable articel.
January 14, 2008 4:34:40 PM

Analysts are about as good as predictors of the future as seismographs are at predicting an earth quake.

the analysts looks at the numbers from the past to predict the future and tells you nothing about what is really happening.

take the tech bubble - all the buy's and after market tanks 20-30% its time to sell! useless


everyone new amd chips had issues months ago - now that things are about to probably get better the stock has lost 80% of its value, the geniuses that paid 100's of thousands to tell their clients how to invest are telling us "wow amd has problems"

wow what geniuses! just like the seismograph is useless in predicting earth quakes they only tell you after the fact how big they are - we all know how bad amd cpu;s preform and how bad the r600 was 7 months ago or longer!

the products are coming along its market perception of nvidia superior peformance that has to be changed.

business model is busted? not!

amd speed is nothing and speed is everything, intel just did what amd did with faster and now even faster chips.
January 14, 2008 5:15:12 PM

I would agree that the model is not busted. But the guy who's building the model is.

All the way back in the time peroid of the 939, they guy on top should have been building a better chip. Instead, he panicked and laid out what was essencially a server platform with a couple overworked chips and called it the 4x4, later known as the QFX. That should never have happened. The AM2 was a good idea, but it lacked any performance advantage. It should have had things like the 6000+, 6400+ and 5000+ BE from the start. It may not have been as fast as C2D, but it would have sold a lot better then than AM2 ended up selling. And then there was the endless string of lies from management. I like the concept of Phenom (K10), but I don't like the execution. Even then, the recall/stop shipment, about the errata leaves me wondering. If the errata isn't that bad, just something that only occurs in labratory conditions, I don't see why there should have been such a fuss made over it. So I wonder, was there something worse which isn't being admitted?

And then there's the 790FX Spider platform. Hardly anyone uses Crossfire in the first place, so why spend so much time and money developing a a motherboard that can use up to 4 video cards? And the 790FX uses the SB600 south bridge which has been causing trouble. Wouldn't the time and money have been better spent getting out a SB700 south bridge and no four card platform?

No, I like the business model. Like Dragonspayer said, the analyists can tell about past mistakes, but nothing about the future. But I also think that those past mistakes should be studied so that they aren't repeated.
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January 14, 2008 5:24:58 PM

Are these the same analysts that are predicting the US economy is going to collapse due to mortgage foreclosures and defaulting sub-prime loans?

The only credible statements are the comments about AMD paying too much for ATI and assuming too much debt from the acquisition. Talk about an 800lb gorilla!

The Board trimming the management tree of a few dead branches would not be a total surprise, either.

A few more note worthy quotes...


Some observers of the personal computer industry say Wall Street's vote of no-confidence is an overreaction.

AMD has several strengths: the largest and strongest engineering team in its history, a productive research partnership with IBM Corp. and some promising new graphics chips. In addition, the company has a plethora of new computer processor chips, and graphics chips for desktop and notebook computers as well as servers, the powerful machines that run business Web sites and other operations.

"Rumors of AMD's death are greatly exaggerated," said analyst Nathan Brookwood

"AMD is not in terminal decline," said analyst Ashok Kumar of CRT Capital Holdings LLC. "They will fix it and turn the ship around. The (personal computer) market needs a credible second source, and AMD is that."

"The (computer makers) don't want to go back to the days when they gave Intel a license to print money," Kumar said.
said:


Some observers of the personal computer industry say Wall Street's vote of no-confidence is an overreaction.

AMD has several strengths: the largest and strongest engineering team in its history, a productive research partnership with IBM Corp. and some promising new graphics chips. In addition, the company has a plethora of new computer processor chips, and graphics chips for desktop and notebook computers as well as servers, the powerful machines that run business Web sites and other operations.

"Rumors of AMD's death are greatly exaggerated," said analyst Nathan Brookwood

"AMD is not in terminal decline," said analyst Ashok Kumar of CRT Capital Holdings LLC. "They will fix it and turn the ship around. The (personal computer) market needs a credible second source, and AMD is that."

"The (computer makers) don't want to go back to the days when they gave Intel a license to print money," Kumar said.


January 14, 2008 5:36:32 PM

To be honest amd would have no reason to chuck out its management now, as its fate is currently and for some time to come all in the hands of the engineers working on r680, r700 and the b3 phenoms. All it would do is bring the market optimisim that a turnaround is more certain/less uncertain, but then again just getting the phenoms finished and out the factory gates would have a greater effect than sacking hector. In a very strong sense the horse has already bolted, just have to wait for it to wander back.
January 14, 2008 6:10:55 PM

dragonsprayer said:
Analysts are about as good as predictors of the future as seismographs are at predicting an earth quake.


Obviously you have absolutely no idea how a seismograph works, or what uses it has. It CAN predict earthquakes, AND volcanic eruptions/ measure activity. They can also let us know when foreign countries do nuclear tests!

On a lighter note.. business analysts can do none of this.
January 14, 2008 6:21:44 PM

"On a lighter note.. business analysts can do none of this." lol !
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January 14, 2008 7:31:28 PM

OlSkoolChopper said:
http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/technology/01/14/0114amd.html

Some Quotes:

Quote:
"They are feeling the pressure," said analyst Rob Enderle of the Enderle Group. "Everyone thought they were going to go through some pain (with the ATI acquisition), but I would bet you they never thought there was going to be this much pain."

Quote:



DELETED

Face facts AMD have entered crappo land, and if the results are going to be as low as we think - ok how many people bought the 2000 series radeons let alone the 3000 series.... And as for BE processors - no one in the trade stocks them yet.....

We were all told AMD have got something up their sleeve, but it seems AMD havent even found it yet either......

Hey AMD, employ Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell - They spun us along for 10 years... They Bankrupted us too, but it has taken them ten years to do it, where Hector Ruz ( or whatever is on his unemployment benefit slip ) only took one a year and a half......
January 14, 2008 7:36:48 PM

skittle said:
Obviously you have absolutely no idea how a seismograph works, or what uses it has. It CAN predict earthquakes, AND volcanic eruptions/ measure activity. They can also let us know when foreign countries do nuclear tests!

On a lighter note.. business analysts can do none of this.


i do and it can - but so can a fortune teller

there is no way to predict an earth quakes

little quakes do not mean a big one and a big one does not have to have little ones - it works like a glass of water next to bomb and its not much more complicated then that!

ps: i only used that since i was flipping channels and an earth quake made for tv movie was on!
January 14, 2008 8:22:54 PM

They dont do predictions on a microscale... but on a macro scale earth quakes generally are on a pretty regular schedule (unlike AMD). And there are signs that earth quakes are imminent.
January 14, 2008 8:30:12 PM

skittle said:
They dont do predictions on a microscale... but on a macro scale earth quakes generally are on a pretty regular schedule (unlike AMD). And there are signs that earth quakes are imminent.


Back when I lived in California, earthquake prediction were a regular thing. Most people seemed to stop paying attention to them though, as too many predictions turned out to be nothing. Either that, or there would be a prediction that read something like "Earth movement shows that there will be an earthquakes sometime in the next ten years". Yeah, and by the time it happens, if it happens at all, I will have forgotten about the prediction.
January 14, 2008 8:34:49 PM

sailer said:
Back when I lived in California, earthquake prediction were a regular thing. Most people seemed to stop paying attention to them though, as too many predictions turned out to be nothing. Either that, or there would be a prediction that read something like "Earth movement shows that there will be an earthquakes sometime in the next ten years". Yeah, and by the time it happens, if it happens at all, I will have forgotten about the prediction.


seismologists got to make money somehow!
January 14, 2008 9:06:51 PM

Is this Thread about AMD or Earth Quakes ?

Let me pull them together for you

In the Movie Phenomenon(phenom AMD refrence)John Travolta Gains incredible powers of the mind. At one point in the movie
he predicts an earthquake because he sense's it (Seismoligy refrence)
couple hours later earthquake happens :) 
January 14, 2008 9:08:52 PM

I gotta stop smoking non filtered cigerettes :) 
January 14, 2008 9:13:27 PM

dragonsprayer:

Analysts get paid more than you because the know much more than you. They are experts at what they do and there observations, opinions and analysis should be taken as such. I'm not saying they're always right but you shouldn't discount them because it's not what you want to hear.

chunkymonster:
Was there some economic news that indicates that the US isn't headed or in a recession? While these aren't the same folks I think they're spot on as well so what's your point?

AMD is in very sad shape right now and I have yet to see any light at the end of the tunnel. In fact the have mislead the consumer every step of the way. They've done so much damage that my server sales person bad mouths them. Pretty soon they'll have to adopt Intel tactics just too survive.
January 14, 2008 9:21:58 PM

In order for amd to adapt intel tactics they need money.
January 14, 2008 9:43:06 PM

I wouldn't give analysts too much credit. They are just statistitions. They are just good with using numbers in a particular way. They jgenerally work out lots averages, percentages and probabilities. They use statistics and discrete maths. Very similar to accountants actually.

I'm an electronics engineer and I use numbers just as much as they do but I use a lot less statistics and a lot more pure and mechanical maths.

In their job numbers don't have to be exact, they are approximations because they have some leeway. In my job the numbers must be exact or things don't work. At the end of the day its just manipulation of numbers.

End of wierd analyst rant.
P.s I don't like them because they earn 3 times more then me and have an easier job. lol.
January 14, 2008 9:55:18 PM

Predicting earthquake is possible, just not very accurately. They'll predict stuff like a major earthquake that will happen within 40years or something.

It's like saying "One day you'll die" but who knows when?

Sadly, it is not as simple with AMD. Will they die? Well we'll know after they do.
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January 14, 2008 10:02:09 PM

bydesign said:
chunkymonster:
Was there some economic news that indicates that the US isn't headed or in a recession? While these aren't the same folks I think they're spot on as well so what's your point?

AMD is in very sad shape right now and I have yet to see any light at the end of the tunnel. In fact the have mislead the consumer every step of the way. They've done so much damage that my server sales person bad mouths them. Pretty soon they'll have to adopt Intel tactics just too survive.

It's called sarcasm and irony.

My point is that analysts have no more insight to what's going to happen in tomorrow's market than the you or I do. As they say, past performance is not an indicator of future return.

AMD has been around for 20 years and this situation is not going to cause them to close doors any time soon. I maintain that AMD will be here in another 20 years.

Complaining that AMD "has mis-lead the consumer" is like complaining about the Ford Hybrid Escape or the Nissan Altima V6 not actually get the EPA estimated MPG. What did you expect?!

If the US economy was in a recession, right now today, we wouldn't know it for another 6 months when the reports are published and the dollars are totaled; but by then, it would be too late to do anything about it. Just remember that this is an election year, the financial outlook for any election year is always tenious. And even if CitiCorp does divest $24B in losses due to defaulting sub-prime loans, there are enough investors and banks in the world to pick up the losses and move the economy forward. It comes and goes in cycles.

AMD has done so much damage that your server person bad mouths them? Damage to what and whom?! Did the server room blow up? Have the psu's throughout the data center all fried because of Barcelona's thermals?
January 15, 2008 12:28:58 AM

dragonsprayer said:
Analysts are about as good as predictors of the future as seismographs are at predicting an earth quake.


LMFAO!

Nice one!
January 15, 2008 12:37:50 AM

chunkymonster said:
Are these the same analysts that are predicting the US economy is going to collapse due to mortgage foreclosures and defaulting sub-prime loans?

The only credible statements are the comments about AMD paying too much for ATI and assuming too much debt from the acquisition. Talk about an 800lb gorilla!

The Board trimming the management tree of a few dead branches would not be a total surprise, either.

A few more note worthy quotes...


Quote:
Some observers of the personal computer industry say Wall Street's vote of no-confidence is an overreaction.

AMD has several strengths: the largest and strongest engineering team in its history, a productive research partnership with IBM Corp. and some promising new graphics chips. In addition, the company has a plethora of new computer processor chips, and graphics chips for desktop and notebook computers as well as servers, the powerful machines that run business Web sites and other operations.

"Rumors of AMD's death are greatly exaggerated," said analyst Nathan Brookwood

"AMD is not in terminal decline," said analyst Ashok Kumar of CRT Capital Holdings LLC. "They will fix it and turn the ship around. The (personal computer) market needs a credible second source, and AMD is that."

"The (computer makers) don't want to go back to the days when they gave Intel a license to print money," Kumar said.


I wouldnt say, in the case of AMD, the analysts vote of no confidence is an over reaction. Even discounting all the fanboy hype, which artificially exagerated expectations (even where AMD itself wasnt hyping) AMD still had more than enough notable failures that I find myself wondering why the analysts and stock ratings didnt fall sooner.

I cant speak for you, or anyone else, but I know I view QFX as a knee jerk reaction rather than a pre-planned product. Had it worked, who would have cared? But it didnt, and not ony didnt it not work, but it failed spectacularly....so much so, I still find myself wondering, did AMD really misread the enthusiast segment that much, and honestly beleive people would buy into the 'more expensive, lower performing sockets are better' schtick??

And QFX's still birth wasnt the first of AMDs failures during this time frame. Killing 939 was. Given the circumstances, 939s premature demise, however unpalatable, is perfectly and easily understandable....they really didnt have much choice, so they did what they had to, but none the less they shafted people in the process.

AM2 was overhyped by the fanboys, but even so, it was and still is a strong perfromer, yes, not as fast as C2D, but it still rules the value segment, and is a strong contender in midrange. Its only failure (if you could call it a failure) is that the SOI process was just too limited to give the same clockspeeds as C2D.

Brisbane, on the otherhand is a failure....of sorts. Not the Uarch, but the increased limitations of SOI @ 65nm. AMD has yet to resolve those issues and match K8 @ 90nm, but there is the benefit of 65nm, obviously,....greater # of dies per wafer...kind of a net sum zero tradeoff in that respect, but it certainly wasnt the C2D killer the fanboys hyped it to be, nor do I suspect, was it what AMD hoped it would be or projected it to be.

K10-----nuff said.

That leaves the ATI purchase. I didnt like it then, and Im still not sure if I do, but I do understand it, and IMO still think it was a good idea. Yes, it hurt them financially, but, long term, not buying it could have hurt them even worse. ATI was like a tetnus or hepetitus shot. You dont want it, it sucks getting it, but long term, its a good thing in your best interests. Not getting the shots leaves you in a far worse situation long term. In the case of ATI, not getting it would have left AMD in a far worse situation IRT platforms....and Im not refering to spider, which really isnt a money maker, but to enterprise systems, where they could have been selling dozens, hundreds, even thousands of platforms per contract.

So, AMD killed 939 early POing everyone who bought them, lost some performance early on with AM2, then couldnt deliver to the channel, bought ATI (who had their own problems with the 2900s) spewed QFX onto the market where it promptly failed, had SOI @ 65nm problems with Brisbane, problems which still, to this very moment plague them, and then.....then there was K10. Intel had netburst....a mighty big failure, and one that lasted a long while, but they corrected with C2D. AMD has had several failures and net sum zero gains, where they kept promising success.

How many times must the little boy cry wolf before you dont even bother opening the door for him anymore? IMO, everyone who knows anything at all about CPUs was waiting for K10 to set right all the wrongs AMD had endured....but it didnt. Perhaps K10s shortcomings could have been overlooked had its problems not been so pronounced, but with the exception of being a native quad, it missed every mark it aimed for.



January 15, 2008 12:44:25 AM

1783124,22,60934 said:
Quote:
still find myself wondering, did AMD really misread the enthusiast segment that much, and honestly beleive people would buy into the 'more expensive, lower performing sockets are better' schtick
Quote:



high end drives the low end - the corvette affect that sells chevetts (ok that's the 70's sells cavilers)
January 15, 2008 12:53:28 AM

dragonsprayer said:
1783124,22,60934 said:
Quote:
still find myself wondering, did AMD really misread the enthusiast segment that much, and honestly beleive people would buy into the 'more expensive, lower performing sockets are better' schtick
Quote:



high end drives the low end - the corvette affect that sells chevetts (ok that's the 70's sells cavilers)
said:
Quote:
Quote:



Thats not what I meant. K 10 wasnt a corvette. It was a Pinto with a 351C shoehorned in. Fast, yes, but not fastest, and with so many problems as to be little more than a curiosity.....the catagory of "Oh, thats clever, but why bother? Id never want one myself"

AMD didnt misread the market IRT "win on sunday, sell on monday" but IRT 'lets glue 2 mobos together. It will be fast, but not fastest. It will suck tons of power, generate tons of heat, and be expensive, but it will be 'kuul', so people will buy it because it is 'kuul'. i.e. a novelty
January 15, 2008 12:59:12 AM

Hellboy said:
DELETED

Face facts AMD have entered crappo land, and if the results are going to be as low as we think - ok how many people bought the 2000 series radeons let alone the 3000 series.... And as for BE processors - no one in the trade stocks them yet.....

We were all told AMD have got something up their sleeve, but it seems AMD havent even found it yet either......

Hey AMD, employ Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell - They spun us along for 10 years... They Bankrupted us too, but it has taken them ten years to do it, where Hector Ruz ( or whatever is on his unemployment benefit slip ) only took one a year and a half......


As far as I know, the 3XXX radeons are selling quite well. I have been seeing people recommend them quite often on these forums, and my cousin just put together a X-Fire 3870 system, with a Q6600. And, I don't know if he is being honest, but with everything OC'ed, he said he was playing crysis, max settings, @ 1600X1200 (might have been 19X1080.... can't remember which).

Still, from what I can tell the 3XXX cards are selling quite well because they compete well and are priced in a pretty nice spot.
January 15, 2008 1:06:21 AM

chunkymonster said:

As they say, past performance is not an indicator of future return.

AMD has been around for 20 years and this situation is not going to cause them to close doors any time soon. I maintain that AMD will be here in another 20 years.


That's so paradox that it is giving me a headache just looking at it.
January 15, 2008 2:15:14 AM

Hellboy wrote :

DELETED

Face facts AMD have entered crappo land, and if the results are going to be as low as we think - ok how many people bought the 2000 series radeons let alone the 3000 series.... And as for BE processors - no one in the trade stocks them yet.....

We were all told AMD have got something up their sleeve, but it seems AMD havent even found it yet either......

Hey AMD, employ Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell - They spun us along for 10 years... They Bankrupted us too, but it has taken them ten years to do it, where Hector Ruz ( or whatever is on his unemployment benefit slip ) only took one a year and a half......


Geeze! I must be in crap land cause I've got both the 3870 and BE 5000. Oh shame on me, spank me a thousand times and I still don't regret buying them. And yes the 3870 flies.
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January 15, 2008 2:33:50 AM

ZOldDude said:
http://www.nyse.com/interface/jsp/NHDetail.jsp?RequestI...

AMD also has a large part of the cellphone IC market...currant CPU and GPU products are only a slice of the pie.


I still get sick of AMD reaping the rewards for what ATI created and brought forth. that was all ATIs doing. AMD had only the CPU market until the bought ATI. Even though Intel has more than CPUs and GPUs. The have their chips in all kinds of consumer electronics with plans on CPUs that use roughly .5volts to power internet devices and other mobile devices.

I don't think the R600 is a bad card just the drivers were immature to begin with since ATI was bought and probably got side tracked revamping their chipsets for AMD CPUs. I still think that their 512bit bus has yet to be full utilized. I have a 2900Pro(1GB of course cuz I am crazy) and am able to play Crysis on all high and a few on very high like shader and others without it dropping below 30-40FPS.

AMDs business model is not busted just slightly tilted from what it used to be. They used to actually try to produce a good CPU. Now they over hype and talk and talk and talk and show all this fancy paper with no solid backing. Only the ATI cards have had solid proof going based on the HD3k series that performs quite well for the price. But AMD needs new leadership. Someone who will take them back to the once great Intel rival. Right now they are not even a thorn in Intels side. just a fly on the wall. Maybe that will change but if Hector continues down the current path it might not.
January 15, 2008 3:46:52 AM

jimmysmitty wrote:

"I still get sick of AMD reaping the rewards for what ATI created and brought forth. that was all ATIs doing. AMD had only the CPU market until the bought ATI."


Well consider yourself extremely lucky that it's a free market and you don't have to buy that crap. :-) lol
January 15, 2008 3:53:31 AM

I am blaming the ATI GPU problems on ATI. R600 was nothing that they promised.

ATI screwed that pooch, and AMD bought into it and got burned. R600 was so hot they couldn't even release the 2900XTX version. ATI really botched something on the high end R600 cards.

On the other hand, the 3XXX cards are competing quite well. I think the shrink is the biggest difference (don't quote me on that).

It's obvious you don't like AMD, and neither do I right now. But, I think it's wrong to blame AMD for the mistakes ATI made on the 2XXX series.

That one falls on ATI all the way as far as I am concerned.
January 15, 2008 6:43:46 AM

Agreed, r600 was in the works long before amd bought ati. If amd hadnt bought ati ati would have collapsed post r600. It didnt sell well and would have left them with no cash to design a successor or refresh.

I like the r600 by the way before the flames come, i have a 2900pro and am very happy with it thankyou very much. It took a long time to mature but it lived up to its promises eventually. The realistic ones, that is, that said it would be equal to a 640mb gts. AMD buying ATI saved atis bacon.
a b à CPUs
January 15, 2008 11:10:14 AM

My prediction that Hector would get the boot in a week has expired.

I'm being transferred to Seismology, Astrology, Economics or maybe Gartnerology ... LOL.

The Gartner (ologists) seem to get payed a bit more ... hacks with ties !!


January 15, 2008 11:23:35 AM

"Face facts AMD have entered crappo land, and if the results are going to be as low as we think - ok how many people bought the 2000 series radeons let alone the 3000 series.... And as for BE processors - no one in the trade stocks them yet.....

We were all told AMD have got something up their sleeve, but it seems AMD havent even found it yet either......

Hey AMD, employ Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell - They spun us along for 10 years... They Bankrupted us too, but it has taken them ten years to do it, where Hector Ruz ( or whatever is on his unemployment benefit slip ) only took one a year and a half......"

1.) 2000 didnt sell well but it did sell: theres alot of happy 2900pro owners for a start
2.) 3000 series is very popular, take a long look on the forums for a start
3.) Britain is not bankrupt, not by a long shot. You think campbell and blair were bad? you dont remember John Major obviously, the man who campaigned for us to join the e.r.m, took interest rates to 16% to keep us in and triggered worst recession since the start of ww2. Then we left it. Oh, national debt took a teeny weeny bit of a turn for the worst back then too.
January 15, 2008 11:25:29 AM

jimmysmitty said:
I still get sick of AMD reaping the rewards for what ATI created and brought forth. that was all ATIs doing. AMD had only the CPU market until the bought ATI. Even though Intel has more than CPUs and GPUs. The have their chips in all kinds of consumer electronics with plans on CPUs that use roughly .5volts to power internet devices and other mobile devices.

I don't think the R600 is a bad card just the drivers were immature to begin with since ATI was bought and probably got side tracked revamping their chipsets for AMD CPUs. I still think that their 512bit bus has yet to be full utilized. I have a 2900Pro(1GB of course cuz I am crazy) and am able to play Crysis on all high and a few on very high like shader and others without it dropping below 30-40FPS.

AMDs business model is not busted just slightly tilted from what it used to be. They used to actually try to produce a good CPU. Now they over hype and talk and talk and talk and show all this fancy paper with no solid backing. Only the ATI cards have had solid proof going based on the HD3k series that performs quite well for the price. But AMD needs new leadership. Someone who will take them back to the once great Intel rival. Right now they are not even a thorn in Intels side. just a fly on the wall. Maybe that will change but if Hector continues down the current path it might not.


Mate what clocks have you got your pro at? what settings and res? xp or vista? how did the crysis patch work out for you?
I got a pro the day before i had to go overseas again for another 6 weeks, so I cant test any of this out for a while.

Cheers
January 15, 2008 11:27:21 AM

for the record i bought 3 R600's that's not many for me


first was the 2900XT supper cooker - i pwn it on someone that like ati - they are happy but it did lag up with CoD4

second was 2 for me when they renamed it the 2900 pro and dropped the price to $250 then $170. If you can get one of these for $170 buy it! The lower clock speed helps alot for the heat - it appears to run significantly cooler.

the 3870 is different story its a good come back, these babies will sell like hot cakes after the dual gpu (3870 X2) reviews come in.

the problem is amd can not scale past 3.2 or so ghz. intel is pushing past the 4 ghz barrier that has existed since 2004? or so.

regardless of the cpu these barries have remained from cpu to cpu for years- while intel has broken them amd has not. so when amd fixes the "true native quad core" they be stuck once again at 3-3.4ghz max. while intel is pushing 5 ghz. 560j in 2005 ran to 4.25 the EE965 runs to 4.5 and now the 9650 and e8500 is pushing past 4.5. all single core amd chips are below 3.4, fx-60 held up at 3ghz and the fx-62 at 3.2

amd will be the one laptop per child supplier and intel the rest
January 15, 2008 11:54:22 AM

Yeah, the latest I heard is Ruiz will NOT get fired as someone I spoke to thought before. I guess they might be clearing out some of the lower profile people.

The funny thing is, NO ONE at AMD (according to this person) likes Ruiz either. They all want him gone, but apparently enough guys at the top like Ruiz enough to not fire him.
January 15, 2008 12:00:41 PM

weskurtz81 said:
Yeah, the latest I heard is Ruiz will NOT get fired as someone I spoke to thought before. I guess they might be clearing out some of the lower profile people.

The funny thing is, NO ONE at AMD (according to this person) likes Ruiz either. They all want him gone, but apparently enough guys at the top like Ruiz enough to not fire him.


Sure! When the s*** hits the fan just point fingers and make the undrelings take the fall. The fish stinks from the head, and this head is roten all the way through.

CEO has to be the best job in the country. You get paid milions and when you screw up and stick your compnay into the ground... you get paid milions! If I screw up a frame weld and some dude does a faceplant at 70 mph Im gonna get driven into the ground... by his fists. Dr. Ru(e the day he was hired by AMD)iz desreves nothing less!
a b à CPUs
January 15, 2008 12:16:06 PM

Anger management problem ??
January 15, 2008 12:16:34 PM

Yeah, I can't stand the guy, and apparently no one on the internet likes him either, not even Baron has been defending him. The person I spoke to basically says just about everyone over on the green team wants him gone as well. I guess the rumor was that he might be on the chopping block, and maybe that rumor was dealt with pretty quick after that.

We can all hope though.
January 15, 2008 12:30:57 PM

Reynod said:
Anger management problem ??


Ya. I picked it up from my clients. Its contageous. Their all nice guys but one little minor thing like kissing their girlfreinds and they start whiping you with chains. :lol: 

weskurtz81 said:
Yeah, I can't stand the guy, and apparently no one on the internet likes him either, not even Baron has been defending him. The person I spoke to basically says just about everyone over on the green team wants him gone as well. I guess the rumor was that he might be on the chopping block, and maybe that rumor was dealt with pretty quick after that.

We can all hope though.


Not even Baron, huh? Thats realy saying something since hes probebly over at AMDZone spining about how fast chips are counterproducteve and why everyone needs a 1.8GHz Quad so that they can save the electrcity it takes to keep my nightlight on. Savin the planet, 4 watts at a time! AMD4LIFE! :pt1cable: 
January 15, 2008 12:38:35 PM

OlSkoolChopper said:
Sure! When the s*** hits the fan just point fingers and make the undrelings take the fall. The fish stinks from the head, and this head is roten all the way through.

CEO has to be the best job in the country. You get paid milions and when you screw up and stick your compnay into the ground... you get paid milions! If I screw up a frame weld and some dude does a faceplant at 70 mph Im gonna get driven into the ground... by his fists. Dr. Ru(e the day he was hired by AMD)iz desreves nothing less!


Why do you think I had a little rant about analysts. They get paid a fortune to guess the future. An engineer on the other hand works like hell in a crap hole to get paid with biscuits, everything has to work, you can't just guess and on top of that you don't even get credit for your achievements the company does. If he doesn't predict the future correctly he gets away with it. If as an engineer something doesn't work you generally get the sack.

This is why I don't blame AMD's engineers for Phenoms short-comings. I blame the accountants, marketing and that prick Hector. The company said they were going to make a "native quad" at 65nm with their current manufacturing abilities. I bet that at least 1 most likely more said it can't be done. We need more time and more money and better equipment. Marketing says it has to be "native" because we already said it would be. Accountants say no more money because there isn't any. So the engineer does what he/she can. It turns out crap. Guess who's fault it is. The engineers. But if it was succesful Hector would have got the praise.

The Bugatti Veyron is the perfect example. It was a technical exercise. Why did they have so many problems achieving there aims. Money wasn't a factor. Getting a 1000bhp out of an engine wasn't a problem. Carbon brakes wasn't a problem. The gearbox was a pain. The largest problems were to do with cooling and aerodynamics. However what most people don't no is that the marketing people had already shot the engineers in the foot. The marketing people and the designers had decided to release pictures and a concept of a Bugatti Veyron before any work had started. This meant that the engineers were forced to use that shape and body shell. It looked impressive but no aerodynamic thought or any other considerations had been taken in. So the engineers had to make it work in that shape rather than create the shape around the mechanical parts and then refine it like Gordon Murry did when he designed the Mclaren F1.
January 15, 2008 3:01:52 PM

1783231,33,299418 said:
"Face facts AMD have entered crappo land, and if the results are going to be as low as we think - ok how many people bought the 2000 series radeons let alone the 3000 series.... And as for BE processors - no one in the trade stocks them yet..... /quotemsg]

If you mean the 9600 BE series chips, look here:
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E168...

Ok, the 9600 BE's may not be very good, but they do exist for anyone who really wants one. There seem to be some people who want it, but not many as of yet.
January 15, 2008 4:37:19 PM

sailer said:
Ok, the 9600 BE's may not be very good, but they do exist for anyone who really wants one. There seem to be some people who want it, but not many as of yet.


I'll betcha right now $20 that it outsels the QFX! :pt1cable: 
January 15, 2008 4:59:41 PM

OlSkoolChopper said:
I'll betcha right now $20 that it outsels the QFX! :pt1cable: 


Not taking that bet. Not even the Baron would buy the QFX! :ouch: 
January 15, 2008 6:06:43 PM

I think Elvis would struggle to justify buying QFX and he's dead and loaded.

Hmm! Maybe he's not dead and he's the only person who did buy QFX.

NEWS FLASH! Elvis has just died of a heart attack when he read the electricity bill!

AMD plans to grind up his body to make Phenom cpu's. Having made 4 cores there isn't quite enough left of him to make another 4 cores so we shall just make 3.5 cores and call it a triple and a half core.
Phenom 8600 X3.5 Fat Edition
a c 127 à CPUs
January 15, 2008 7:45:22 PM

spoonboy said:
Mate what clocks have you got your pro at? what settings and res? xp or vista? how did the crysis patch work out for you?
I got a pro the day before i had to go overseas again for another 6 weeks, so I cant test any of this out for a while.

Cheers


I have it at the stock speeds until I find a 6 pint to 8 pin convertor wich is 601MHz GPU and 900MHZ/1800MHz memory. I have seen it being flashed to the equivalent XT(512MB/1GB) and also being OCed to beyond XT speeds easily. Unfortunately there are no real good benchmarks for the 512MB version and almost none for the 1GB version. I plan on getting another for CF for tax time(if I get money back :o  ) and OCing them both to probably 743MHZ GPU and 1100MHz/2200MHz memory.

I have it set to 1280x1024 on Vista Premium and the patch helped a bit. about 20% better. In fact compared to the demo even the cut scenes ran faster than the demo. It has run great except at the part where you have to take out the AA guns in the begining since there was a lot of explosions that would bog it down but under normal play conditions its great. Although even with 2GB ram it used up almost 90% and then crashed when I tried to exit. Might be a memory leak in the program or I just played too long.

BTW once you get the sniper scope use the strength and the heapshots get fun. All of them except when you hit their head and only the helmet flys off for some reason and they live..... dare I say super Koreans?
January 15, 2008 8:59:37 PM

Sailer and gpippas, good ones! We are not worthy! :) 
!