spuddyt :
im placing the bet now the twice-as-expensive gtx 280 will be better
It will be "better" but it might still be a failure, if leaked e-mails are true:
http://www.theinquirer.net/gb/inquirer/news/2008/05/29/nvidia-gt200-sucessor-tapes
Despite the flames made by Nvidia fans to the article, the essential concept that GTX280 at 65nm runs into yield, design and price issues makes sense, and that Nvidia won't have viable cards until a die shrink.
IMHO, the days of monster cards are going fast and this might be Nvidia's last summer of love from gamers who just want an extra 10 fps in Crysis.
Sadly, not only does Huang talk trash about his competitors, and deny the value of dual GPU on one PCB cards, but Nvidia also relies upon promotions to get game companies in line that are as dodgy as Intel's old OEM rebate program.
Yes, it should be faster, but all that gets is the crown if the part is not available at an already overly high MSRP.
darkdisciple :
Just 3 more weeks till we get some benchmarks and find out!!!
The real competition will arrive with the 4870x2 in late summer or fall. Since a 4870 doesn't provide real performance over my 3870x2, I'm waiting to get the next dual GPU on one PCB card.
It will be fun to see if triple SLI GTX280's can match two 4870x2's in CrossfireX. My bet's on the CrossfireX but then again, I am an ATI fan and have been since the Radeon 8500.
Will the GTX280 be Nvidia's next FX5800? Only time will tell, but I bet they release dodgy drivers that affect image quality (Crysis demo water style) to make a bare win in the benchies.
If the linked article from Charlie is right, then Nvidia's in a situation with 65nm monster cards that AMD was in with 65nm quads. The thermals and performance isn't there vs. the competitor and the company has to rely on fan loyalty and a 17% or so increase over the last gen.
Personally, Intel failed technologically once and won in the marketplace still. Nvidia failed with the FX series and stayed ahead. It seems there's just too much dislike of AMD and ATI for Nvidia to really go away. As long as the fanboys set aside their $600 to $900 for cards that are only a smidgen better than ATI's mainstream in a few games, then I think Nvidia will survive.
I'd prefer to see them survive as just Via's partner against the Atom, but that's because I really don't like corporate CEO's talking the way Huang's been doing lately. I like competition that brings both innovation and prices that make consumers and investors happy, but I'm tired of cult of personalities and fan boy marketing empires.