TheGreatGrapeApe :
What do you want to bet on that one?
Cause I can think of 3 just off the top of my head (heck one of which probably the HD3870 beats it in).
And if the GTX280 loses out the the GF8800GTX from time to time, it's very likely we'll see some performance holes where the HD4850 could fill the gap.
The 4850 has already been tested, its a good video card for its price point - but its not high end.
Didn't know we had any official reviews yet from credible sources.
There is no official review until the NDA is lifted, however:
xtremesystems tested the 4850, and it is great performance but its not beating the gtx260 - will the launch drivers make a difference? We'll see.
there is a german site which tested the 4850 in crossfire, and its excellent performance, but its still not killing crysis at 1920*1200*4xAA, as in 9 minimum fps and just below 30 max fps (4870 Crossfire might be Crysis stomping territory, we'll have to wait and see to find the truth on that)
Tweaktown did a gtx 280/280 SLI/Tri SLI test and they noted at the end of the test that the 4850 crossfire is really exceptional performance and that it might beat the gtx280 in some benchmarks, but he didn't get into specifics.
I think reality is going to show us exactly what AMD's themselves said: 4850 will be a little bit better than 8800 GT, which means 2 4850s will beat a gtx260 solidly and a gtx 280 by a small amount; 4870 will beat a 9800 GTX solidly, which means 2 4870s will beat a gtx 280 solidly by all rights as well
Factually grape, the 4850 on its own probably doesn't have the power to beat the gtx 260, but given that you can tentatively get 2 4850s for the same price as a single gtx 260, it should be the #1 bang for the buck graphics combo
Here is the problem in all of this though, I did a lot of searching, and I mean a lot of searching to try and find a quad crossfire board in a 775 socket that had space for 4x dual slot pci-e cards for quad crossfire like the 790FX from MSI - but I couldn't find one, which saddened me a lot because quad 4870s on an intel setup would be dandy.
Now what this means for me is this: as a current Nforce user, I can either switch to an AMD platform (which I don't intend to do), or I can switch to SLI gtx280s (which I might do depending on the 4870 benches with antialiasing enabled), or I can wait for 4870x2 to do a Quad Crossfire on a new socket 775 motherboard
Option 2 and 3 are both very expensive - option 2 is about 1252$ from my preferred e-tailer for dual evga cards, and option 3 will likely be 1270$ ish but it won't be an option until some time from now - that is the 4870x2 release
I'm actually not in a big hurry to upgrade my graphics cards - i'm waiting until at LEAST the 4870 has been benchmarked in Crossfire with antialiasing enabled to pass a judgment call for certain as to what I would intend to do.
I think the 4870x2 is going to be the top of the litter at the end of the year for sure - but there is a lot of time between now and then, and if the 4870s launch well it could drive the nvidia gpu price down a bit
Anyways, we'll see what happens yet =)