Could this Intel BK really happen?

[antonmadcow]

http://hubpages.com/hub/Intels-2009-Bankruptcy-A-Cautionary-Tale

Could this really happen? He does bring up a really good point about Nehalem being reliant on DDR3, though.

 

[Wisecracker]

Well ...

The 13th of November in 2009 is on a Friday.

If they want to make predictions I wonder if they can guess which finger I'm holding up?

 

[antonmadcow]

ummm... the middle one?

I think that the point of the article is that if DDR3 RAM price goes up instead of down that could really hurt Nehalem. That does make sense.

 

[rtfm]

One word to sum that "story" up: B*ll*cks

 

[antonmadcow]

Not so sure... that part about the Arabs selling off AMD for parts sure is likely. How much longer are they going to stand by while the value of their investment diminishes to next to nothing?

 

[skittle]

The coup de grace occurred the following month when the Chinese military invasion and occupation of Taiwan sealed off the island nation's manufacturing capacities, eliminating the supply of its RAM memory units from the global marketplace.

hahahahaha

 

[antonmadcow]

I'll bet you Hector Ruiz's future job prospects that China will someday invade. IMHO they've been rattling a lot of swords lately and I think that they are just playing good right now to not spook people from going to the Olympics. Once they're over... watch out!

 

[jimmysmitty]

For what skittle laughed at, I always thought Taiwan was a Republic of China already.

Here is the flaw in this "theory" that I see. By the time all this happens Nehalem will only be barely on its way and they will still be producing Penryn more than Nehalem so if need be they can hold off on Nehalem and keep production of Penryn at full.

This will be easy considering that Nehalem will not fully replace Penryn until probably mid to late 2009 just like how currently Penryn is fazing out Conroe.

So unless Intel is dumb enough, and I doubt they are, it would have to be in late 2009 for this to be able to truly destory them.

 

[antonmadcow]

Yeah, I can't see Intel dumping Penryn production like it says in that article, but who the heck knows what would happen when Intel found itself as the only player in the world CPUstakes? Absolute power corrupts absolutely!

 

[kg4icg]

You do know that the Chinese would still have to get past a certain US Navy fleet in the area in which the Chinese very well know that a US Carrier group is one of the most heavily armed fighting force afloat and underwater because of the 2 ssn's that are attached to said group. SSN is the designation for nuclear attack subs. So for that to happen in which the Chinese tried to flex there muscle before no to long ago and the carrier group was sent over to make them think twice. It's kind of hard defeating the Aegis Defense system especially with the new Standard 3 missles which one just took out a satellite not to long ago.

 

[jimmysmitty]

^This is treu as well. China doesn't have very much in terms of military technological power compared to the US. But they do have greater numbers. By almost 10x really.

 

[antonmadcow]

Come on, can you see President Obama with his goody goody two shoes approach to foreign affairs risking WWIII over Taiwan? I can't. If the Chinese got really pissed off and wanted to invade Hawaii, Alaska, or even the US West Coast, the only way to stop them would be nukes and I can't see any US President ever pushing that button.

Anyway, this is a far tangent from Nehalem's DDR3 potential probs!

 

[royalcrown]

This is what happens when we don't make our own sh%% !

 

[antonmadcow]

I try to avoid Made In China. I don't think I've been to a Dollar Store in years!

 

[jimmysmitty]

^the above two post are right. I try to stay away as well. But it truly is hard.

And um who would want to invade Alaska? Nothing really worth it except the oil. Other than that its just a ice wasteland sorta.

 

[antonmadcow]

There is supposed to be around 9.3 billion barrels of oil in Alaska's National Petroleum Reserve. Can you imagine what the Chinese would do to get their hands on that? There's a lot more than chilly moose up there!

 

[Mathos]

You do know that the Chinese would still have to get past a certain US Navy fleet in the area in which the Chinese very well know that a US Carrier group is one of the most heavily armed fighting force afloat and underwater because of the 2 ssn's that are attached to said group. SSN is the designation for nuclear attack subs. So for that to happen in which the Chinese tried to flex there muscle before no to long ago and the carrier group was sent over to make them think twice. It's kind of hard defeating the Aegis Defense system especially with the new Standard 3 missles which one just took out a satellite not to long ago.

You do realize that China has a population nearly 10x thats of the US, both civilian and military. And I wouldn't underestimate their military tech. They have pretty much free access to most any Soviet military tech that they want. Remember the AK47, which is currently made in china is still one of the single most deadly assault rifles in existence. All China has to do to us is go, guess what, we aren't exporting all this cheap crap we make for you anymore, we're selling it to someone else. China is the main reason we don't mess with Korea for example. People seem to forget that other than Egypt, China is one of the longest standing nations in the known history of our civilization. They've been around as a nation for over 2000 years. We've been around for.....a bit under 250.

I'd see a lot more than Intel being screwed if China invaded Taiwan, pretty much any company that depends on fabs in that country would get the shaft. That includes Intel, nVidia, IBM, Dell, HP, Acer, etc. Pretty much all memory companies. At least if AMD's still around at that time, they've got the advantage of still having their main fabs in germany and the US.

 

[jimmysmitty]

^You are right in some ways. Although the Soviets tech was great there are very few advancements that they have made since. Yes Russia has worked on a few new jets but some that we have are just amazing. Also China is that old but they have not been a nation that long. They have fought eachother forr hundreds of years before finally being unified.

In the short time the US has been around though and with the small population in comparison to say China we have proven to be more than just a pushover. We became the main reason why WWII was changed when Germany had such super powers as Britain in check along with Russia and Japan was pushing China. So to sum it up the US is not just a pushover and if China does do anything they wont be happy to face reap what they sew even with their massive amount of people.

You also do realize that Intels main 45nm FABs are here in the US right? Chandler is the newest and main one. Also AMD does have their chips diffused in Germany (much like Intels are done in the US) but they are also put together in Taiwan so they would be in the same position as Intel if they were around and China took Taiwan.

 

[antonmadcow]

I'm sure that somewhere in the Pentagon there's a nightmare scenario about 5 million Chinese troops landing on the Olympic Peninsula. Exactly what would the US do in that case? Surrender? Or maybe do a "Red Dawn" (which BTW, is being remade... I love that movie!)

I see your point about Taiwan holding the silicon world by the short hairs. If the guy is right and China invades we could probably all be kissing our computers goodbye. Either that or paying $15K for a PC. That would not be a good thing.

 

[antonmadcow]

^I think you lost me here, Paul. Are you supposed to be posting this in Incubus' HSF thread?

 

[Grimmy]

^I think you lost me here, Paul. Are you supposed to be posting this in Incubus' HSF thread?

I was about to say the same.

 

[exit2dos]

Uuuuhhhhh, being that most RAM is made in Korea - I don't see what Taiwan has to do with anything.

 

[antonmadcow]

^ Maybe the North Koreans take the opportunity to invade Seoul at the same time and then the Red Menace takes over the world and we will all have to wear ugly Mao jackets! Aaaaaaaaaah!

 

[yomamafor1]

http://z.hubpages.com/u/427982_f520.jpg

http://hubpages.com/hub/Intels-2009-Bankruptcy-A-Cautionary-Tale

Could this really happen? He does bring up a really good point about Nehalem being reliant on DDR3, though.

Definitely, complete, utter, BS.

First of all, Windows will not suspend development of Windows 7, as its a way for M$ to regain their image. It will likely be delayed (which I won't be surprised if it does), but M$ will not seize development of Windows 7. Not to mention that M$ doesn't even plan to launch Windows 7 until 2009, or even 2010. How can an unlaunched product have a significant impact on a very established hardware market? Even IF (and that's a huge if) M$ does suspend development of Windows 7, the coding inefficiecy in Vista will also prompt users to shell out money for a faster computer.

Then, the author seemed to put a lot of weight on Nehalem, which is a processor that's not even launched yet. If its launched in Q4 this year, it will take at least about a year to reach at least 20~30% of the market (if Intel is really pushing it, which I doubt), and that is desktop only. On the server side, Nehalem will be rejoiced by a lot of companies and scientific communities for its pervasive expandability and performance. That is one market where Nehalem will be widely accepted. Therefore I find author's claim that without Nehalem sales, Intel would BK very laughable.

Next, the author also seemed to have little clue about China vs. Taiwan issue. There is very little chance for China to invade Taiwan due to 1. International pressure, 2. Growing economy, 3. Recent reconciliation between China and Taiwan, and lastly, 4. Deficiency in PLA's ability to launch an amphibious attack.

Then, the author also overlooked the fact that TSMC is planning to build a 300mm fabrication plant in China. This means China gets to benefit from this technology transfer, just by sitting idle. In the case that China occupies Taiwan, China will also likely to lose TSMC's technology, which China is in search for. Therefore, its illogical to assume that China will attack Taiwan next year, and DRAM will lose a huge chunk of supply.

Then, the DDR3 argument, which I find it laughable. DDR3 offers superior performance, and lower power consumption, while its price is slowly dropping to DDR2's level. This means that memory die manufacturers have increased their supply, to respond to the demand. If there's no demand, DDR3 price will still be sky high due to limited supply.

All in all, I find the author of this article very ignorant, lack in knowledge, and simply like to stir up the hive. I would treat this less than the Inq.

 

[antonmadcow]

I see your points, but I don't think he was reporting it as news, but rather as fiction.

I do question some of the positions you take however. I think you'll find a fair number of international relations experts who do not totally discount a China invasion of Taiwan. I also think that losing a fab would not exactly serve to discourage that invasion. Then his "let's remember it's fictional" story has Intel dropping Penryn in light of AMD's BK in order to force people to buy Nehalem. I don't think that's likely as if Paul did that he'd be classed alongside Hector as the worst CEOs in history, but if Intel did become a one CPU-family company and that family was a bust, it could threaten the company. After all, Intel's major product is CPUs and the associated products like chipsets and motherboards are all reliant on the CPUs.

Still I give this guy credit for imagination since at least Fudzilla and the Inq call their hallucinations and outright inventions "news". This guy at least calls it "fiction"!