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Could this Intel BK really happen?

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July 19, 2008 4:42:14 PM



http://hubpages.com/hub/Intels-2009-Bankruptcy-A-Cautionary-Tale

Could this really happen? He does bring up a really good point about Nehalem being reliant on DDR3, though.

More about : intel happen

a c 96 à CPUs
July 19, 2008 4:50:36 PM

Well ...

The 13th of November in 2009 is on a Friday.

If they want to make predictions I wonder if they can guess which finger I'm holding up?
July 19, 2008 4:55:34 PM

ummm... the middle one? :) 

I think that the point of the article is that if DDR3 RAM price goes up instead of down that could really hurt Nehalem. That does make sense.
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July 19, 2008 4:55:41 PM

One word to sum that "story" up: B*ll*cks
July 19, 2008 4:57:40 PM

Not so sure... that part about the Arabs selling off AMD for parts sure is likely. How much longer are they going to stand by while the value of their investment diminishes to next to nothing?
July 19, 2008 4:59:55 PM

Quote:
The coup de grace occurred the following month when the Chinese military invasion and occupation of Taiwan sealed off the island nation's manufacturing capacities, eliminating the supply of its RAM memory units from the global marketplace.


hahahahaha
July 19, 2008 5:03:29 PM

I'll bet you Hector Ruiz's future job prospects that China will someday invade. IMHO they've been rattling a lot of swords lately and I think that they are just playing good right now to not spook people from going to the Olympics. Once they're over... watch out!
a c 123 à CPUs
July 19, 2008 5:23:14 PM

For what skittle laughed at, I always thought Taiwan was a Republic of China already.

Here is the flaw in this "theory" that I see. By the time all this happens Nehalem will only be barely on its way and they will still be producing Penryn more than Nehalem so if need be they can hold off on Nehalem and keep production of Penryn at full.

This will be easy considering that Nehalem will not fully replace Penryn until probably mid to late 2009 just like how currently Penryn is fazing out Conroe.

So unless Intel is dumb enough, and I doubt they are, it would have to be in late 2009 for this to be able to truly destory them.
July 19, 2008 5:25:33 PM

Yeah, I can't see Intel dumping Penryn production like it says in that article, but who the heck knows what would happen when Intel found itself as the only player in the world CPUstakes? Absolute power corrupts absolutely! :) 
July 19, 2008 5:35:51 PM

You do know that the Chinese would still have to get past a certain US Navy fleet in the area in which the Chinese very well know that a US Carrier group is one of the most heavily armed fighting force afloat and underwater because of the 2 ssn's that are attached to said group. SSN is the designation for nuclear attack subs. So for that to happen in which the Chinese tried to flex there muscle before no to long ago and the carrier group was sent over to make them think twice. It's kind of hard defeating the Aegis Defense system especially with the new Standard 3 missles which one just took out a satellite not to long ago.
a c 123 à CPUs
July 19, 2008 5:42:03 PM

^This is treu as well. China doesn't have very much in terms of military technological power compared to the US. But they do have greater numbers. By almost 10x really.
July 19, 2008 5:46:26 PM

Come on, can you see President Obama with his goody goody two shoes approach to foreign affairs risking WWIII over Taiwan? I can't. If the Chinese got really pissed off and wanted to invade Hawaii, Alaska, or even the US West Coast, the only way to stop them would be nukes and I can't see any US President ever pushing that button.

Anyway, this is a far tangent from Nehalem's DDR3 potential probs! :) 
July 19, 2008 5:46:44 PM

This is what happens when we don't make our own sh%% !
July 19, 2008 5:49:57 PM

I try to avoid Made In China. I don't think I've been to a Dollar Store in years! :) 
a c 123 à CPUs
July 19, 2008 5:53:32 PM

^the above two post are right. I try to stay away as well. But it truly is hard.

And um who would want to invade Alaska? Nothing really worth it except the oil. Other than that its just a ice wasteland sorta.
July 19, 2008 5:58:19 PM

There is supposed to be around 9.3 billion barrels of oil in Alaska's National Petroleum Reserve. Can you imagine what the Chinese would do to get their hands on that? There's a lot more than chilly moose up there! :) 
July 19, 2008 6:09:10 PM

kg4icg said:
You do know that the Chinese would still have to get past a certain US Navy fleet in the area in which the Chinese very well know that a US Carrier group is one of the most heavily armed fighting force afloat and underwater because of the 2 ssn's that are attached to said group. SSN is the designation for nuclear attack subs. So for that to happen in which the Chinese tried to flex there muscle before no to long ago and the carrier group was sent over to make them think twice. It's kind of hard defeating the Aegis Defense system especially with the new Standard 3 missles which one just took out a satellite not to long ago.


You do realize that China has a population nearly 10x thats of the US, both civilian and military. And I wouldn't underestimate their military tech. They have pretty much free access to most any Soviet military tech that they want. Remember the AK47, which is currently made in china is still one of the single most deadly assault rifles in existence. All China has to do to us is go, guess what, we aren't exporting all this cheap crap we make for you anymore, we're selling it to someone else. China is the main reason we don't mess with Korea for example. People seem to forget that other than Egypt, China is one of the longest standing nations in the known history of our civilization. They've been around as a nation for over 2000 years. We've been around for.....a bit under 250.

I'd see a lot more than Intel being screwed if China invaded Taiwan, pretty much any company that depends on fabs in that country would get the shaft. That includes Intel, nVidia, IBM, Dell, HP, Acer, etc. Pretty much all memory companies. At least if AMD's still around at that time, they've got the advantage of still having their main fabs in germany and the US.
a c 123 à CPUs
July 19, 2008 6:17:48 PM

^You are right in some ways. Although the Soviets tech was great there are very few advancements that they have made since. Yes Russia has worked on a few new jets but some that we have are just amazing. Also China is that old but they have not been a nation that long. They have fought eachother forr hundreds of years before finally being unified.

In the short time the US has been around though and with the small population in comparison to say China we have proven to be more than just a pushover. We became the main reason why WWII was changed when Germany had such super powers as Britain in check along with Russia and Japan was pushing China. So to sum it up the US is not just a pushover and if China does do anything they wont be happy to face reap what they sew even with their massive amount of people.

You also do realize that Intels main 45nm FABs are here in the US right? Chandler is the newest and main one. Also AMD does have their chips diffused in Germany (much like Intels are done in the US) but they are also put together in Taiwan so they would be in the same position as Intel if they were around and China took Taiwan.
July 19, 2008 6:18:01 PM

I'm sure that somewhere in the Pentagon there's a nightmare scenario about 5 million Chinese troops landing on the Olympic Peninsula. Exactly what would the US do in that case? Surrender? Or maybe do a "Red Dawn" (which BTW, is being remade... I love that movie!)

I see your point about Taiwan holding the silicon world by the short hairs. If the guy is right and China invades we could probably all be kissing our computers goodbye. Either that or paying $15K for a PC. That would not be a good thing. :( 
July 19, 2008 6:50:23 PM

^I think you lost me here, Paul. Are you supposed to be posting this in Incubus' HSF thread?
July 19, 2008 7:09:31 PM

antonmadcow said:
^I think you lost me here, Paul. Are you supposed to be posting this in Incubus' HSF thread?


I was about to say the same. :pt1cable: 
July 19, 2008 7:38:33 PM

Uuuuhhhhh, being that most RAM is made in Korea - I don't see what Taiwan has to do with anything.
July 19, 2008 7:53:07 PM

^ Maybe the North Koreans take the opportunity to invade Seoul at the same time and then the Red Menace takes over the world and we will all have to wear ugly Mao jackets! Aaaaaaaaaah! :) 
July 19, 2008 7:56:50 PM

antonmadcow said:
http://z.hubpages.com/u/427982_f520.jpg

http://hubpages.com/hub/Intels-2009-Bankruptcy-A-Cautionary-Tale

Could this really happen? He does bring up a really good point about Nehalem being reliant on DDR3, though.


Definitely, complete, utter, BS.

First of all, Windows will not suspend development of Windows 7, as its a way for M$ to regain their image. It will likely be delayed (which I won't be surprised if it does), but M$ will not seize development of Windows 7. Not to mention that M$ doesn't even plan to launch Windows 7 until 2009, or even 2010. How can an unlaunched product have a significant impact on a very established hardware market? Even IF (and that's a huge if) M$ does suspend development of Windows 7, the coding inefficiecy in Vista will also prompt users to shell out money for a faster computer.

Then, the author seemed to put a lot of weight on Nehalem, which is a processor that's not even launched yet. If its launched in Q4 this year, it will take at least about a year to reach at least 20~30% of the market (if Intel is really pushing it, which I doubt), and that is desktop only. On the server side, Nehalem will be rejoiced by a lot of companies and scientific communities for its pervasive expandability and performance. That is one market where Nehalem will be widely accepted. Therefore I find author's claim that without Nehalem sales, Intel would BK very laughable.

Next, the author also seemed to have little clue about China vs. Taiwan issue. There is very little chance for China to invade Taiwan due to 1. International pressure, 2. Growing economy, 3. Recent reconciliation between China and Taiwan, and lastly, 4. Deficiency in PLA's ability to launch an amphibious attack.

Then, the author also overlooked the fact that TSMC is planning to build a 300mm fabrication plant in China. This means China gets to benefit from this technology transfer, just by sitting idle. In the case that China occupies Taiwan, China will also likely to lose TSMC's technology, which China is in search for. Therefore, its illogical to assume that China will attack Taiwan next year, and DRAM will lose a huge chunk of supply.

Then, the DDR3 argument, which I find it laughable. DDR3 offers superior performance, and lower power consumption, while its price is slowly dropping to DDR2's level. This means that memory die manufacturers have increased their supply, to respond to the demand. If there's no demand, DDR3 price will still be sky high due to limited supply.

All in all, I find the author of this article very ignorant, lack in knowledge, and simply like to stir up the hive. I would treat this less than the Inq.
July 19, 2008 9:05:36 PM

I see your points, but I don't think he was reporting it as news, but rather as fiction. :) 

I do question some of the positions you take however. I think you'll find a fair number of international relations experts who do not totally discount a China invasion of Taiwan. I also think that losing a fab would not exactly serve to discourage that invasion. Then his "let's remember it's fictional" story has Intel dropping Penryn in light of AMD's BK in order to force people to buy Nehalem. I don't think that's likely as if Paul did that he'd be classed alongside Hector as the worst CEOs in history, but if Intel did become a one CPU-family company and that family was a bust, it could threaten the company. After all, Intel's major product is CPUs and the associated products like chipsets and motherboards are all reliant on the CPUs.

Still I give this guy credit for imagination since at least Fudzilla and the Inq call their hallucinations and outright inventions "news". This guy at least calls it "fiction"!
July 19, 2008 9:11:24 PM

I agree with yomamafor1. The Chinese are to busy profiting from their economic developments and would rather participate in technological developments than invade Taiwan.
July 19, 2008 9:20:25 PM

antonmadcow said:
Come on, can you see President Obama with his goody goody two shoes approach to foreign affairs risking WWIII over Taiwan? I can't. If the Chinese got really pissed off and wanted to invade Hawaii, Alaska, or even the US West Coast, the only way to stop them would be nukes and I can't see any US President ever pushing that button.

Anyway, this is a far tangent from Nehalem's DDR3 potential probs! :) 


Canada has announced they will attack the USA in Five Minutes.

There is a Canadian Cruiser parked off the East Coast of the United States loaded with two Cruise Missiles aimed at Washington DC. That Cruiser and two missiles is the extent of the Canadian Military Force, but what the heck they are making a good show of force.

What would President McCain do? I say it would take McCain 2 seconds to order a pre-emptive Military Strike against the Canadian Cruiser and the rest of the Canuks.

What would President Hillary do? I say it would take Hilliary 5 seconds to order a pre-emptive Military Strike agains the Canadian Cruiser and the rest of the Canuks. It would take Hilliary the extra time because she would have to ask Bill where the button was located.

What would President Obama do? Good Question. I suspect the USA would surrender to Canada.
July 19, 2008 9:20:45 PM

First of all, I totally respect yomamafor1 as every post I have ever read of his is full of indepth and well thought-out information, including this one. I'm just stating that there is no way to be assured of future events as anything can happen and it usually does. John McCain believes that China needs to be strongly dissuaded from Taiwan, as he stated in March : "the one thing the Chinese have to understand is if they commit aggression against Taiwan, the consequences will be far greater than anything they might gain from it. It would be terribly destabilizing and harmful to everything in the region, which becomes more and more important to the United States of America." If McCain takes it that seriously, then I think we should not easily discount that prospect.
July 19, 2008 9:24:38 PM

StevieD said:
What would President Obama do? Good Question. I suspect the USA would surrender to Canada.


As a Canadian I can only warn my southern neighboUrs that we have been the butt of your humoUr long enough. We've been listening to "eh", "hoser", and "eskimo" jokes for far too many years, and we are about to retaliate. Americans: Once Canada utterly defeats you, prepare to accept Don Cherry as your President-For-Life, salute the Maple Leaf, learn to drink real beer, and never again win a Stanley Cup! But at least you'll have medical coverage! :bounce: 
July 19, 2008 9:34:49 PM

antonmadcow said:
First of all, I totally respect yomamafor1 as every post I have ever read of his is full of indepth and well thought-out information, including this one.


Thanks, but quit the BS, would ya? :p 

I'm just stating that there is no way to be assured of future events as anything can happen and it usually does. John McCain believes that China needs to be strongly dissuaded from Taiwan, as he stated in March : "the one thing the Chinese have to understand is if they commit aggression against Taiwan, the consequences will be far greater than anything they might gain from it. It would be terribly destabilizing and harmful to everything in the region, which becomes more and more important to the United States of America." If McCain takes it that seriously, then I think we should not easily discount that prospect. said:
I'm just stating that there is no way to be assured of future events as anything can happen and it usually does. John McCain believes that China needs to be strongly dissuaded from Taiwan, as he stated in March : "the one thing the Chinese have to understand is if they commit aggression against Taiwan, the consequences will be far greater than anything they might gain from it. It would be terribly destabilizing and harmful to everything in the region, which becomes more and more important to the United States of America." If McCain takes it that seriously, then I think we should not easily discount that prospect.


For China vs Taiwan... I only have this to say: Its easy to say whatever when you're on the fence, but your head is the clearest when you're in the water.
July 19, 2008 9:39:15 PM

yomamafor1 said:
Thanks, but quit the BS, would ya? :p 


Just a little brownnosing is the least I can do to one of the great Tom's gurus! :D 

For China vs Taiwan... I only have this to say: Its easy to say whatever when you're on the fence, but your head is the clearest when you're in the water. said:
For China vs Taiwan... I only have this to say: Its easy to say whatever when you're on the fence, but your head is the clearest when you're in the water.


I can't vote in the upcoming US elections, but I'm sure I would vote for McCain. Not because of his stand on the issues or anything like that. I just figure that any old coot who can score a hot younger woman with that kind of coin has got to get respect from me! :lol: 
July 20, 2008 12:12:06 AM

antonmadcow said:
As a Canadian I can only warn my southern neighboUrs that we have been the butt of your humoUr long enough. We've been listening to "eh", "hoser", and "eskimo" jokes for far too many years, and we are about to retaliate. Americans: Once Canada utterly defeats you, prepare to accept Don Cherry as your President-For-Life, salute the Maple Leaf, learn to drink real beer, and never again win a Stanley Cup! But at least you'll have medical coverage! :bounce: 


Do I need to remind you that if it weren't for the US government intervening in the 1800s that the Michigan militia would of invaded Canada across the St. Claire River to try and take over that southern peninsula of yours? *sigh* the scary part is, this ones true..

Yeah, china's existence as a nation has been touch and go depending on what dynasty it was in prior to going communist. The end of the Han dynasty, and the other dynasty I forgot the name of (the one right before the Mongol's invaded around 1200ad).

And when did they decide to remake Red Dawn? I grew up with that movie ;) .
July 20, 2008 2:39:42 AM

You Yanks would be welcome to Southern Ontario. That's not Canada anyway. It's some sort of crazed yuppieville where they drink lattes and spend $800,000 on one bedroom condos.

The announcement of the Red Dawn remake was last week. Major studio production. I wonder who the bad guys are going to be?
July 20, 2008 4:24:42 AM

antonmadcow said:
You Yanks would be welcome to Southern Ontario. That's not Canada anyway. It's some sort of crazed yuppieville where they drink lattes and spend $800,000 on one bedroom condos.

The announcement of the Red Dawn remake was last week. Major studio production. I wonder who the bad guys are going to be?


Was the rumor I heard about Ontario threatening to leave the canadian nation, and apply for US state hood if Quebec went Independent? Always wondered about that one, heard a lot of people say it, but thought it was likely complete bs. You'd have to take the cup from Detroit again :) . I grew up in Flint/Detroit area in Michigan by the way :D . Very true, always thought Sarnia and Windsor were a bit different when compared to the rest of Canada.

Now back to the most ram being made in Korea. Assembled there possibly, but the chips themselves are generally fabbed in Taiwan. Not to mention Korea is aligned politically with China. And to think of the gravity of the situation if anything like that happened. Look on the back of almost any computer or electronics hardware you have for the made in label. Tell me how much of it says either China, Korea, Taiwan, or another country closely related to china. Think about the only things that are still heavily manufactured in the US is automobiles, and a lot of weapons. Even my Ugly Stik fishing pole says Made in China on it. On the other hand, perhaps China wouldn't necessarily be bad thing for the US. It would hurt in the short term as we'd be cut off from all the goods, and computer tech fabs that are in Taiwan and China, but in the long run it would finally force a lot of these companies that are jumping ship and moving production overseas to start making things here again, providing jobs.
July 20, 2008 12:38:23 PM

Mathos said:
Was the rumor I heard about Ontario threatening to leave the canadian nation, and apply for US state hood if Quebec went Independent? Always wondered about that one, heard a lot of people say it, but thought it was likely complete bs. You'd have to take the cup from Detroit again :) . I grew up in Flint/Detroit area in Michigan by the way :D . Very true, always thought Sarnia and Windsor were a bit different when compared to the rest of Canada.


Quebec has been bleeting about leaving for forty years. If it was up to me I'd tell them to make sure that the door didn't hit them in the derriere on the way out, but it's just an excuse to keep bleeding the country of all the bribes the Federal Government keeps feeding them. For example... both the City of Quebec and the Province of British Columbia had big anniversary celebrations this year. The government gave Quebec $200 million to put on the party. British Columbia got $150,000! Adieu Quebec... have fun trying to make it on your own! Ontario won't leave since they were powerful once but they're really hurting now! Canada really is only Alberta and British Columbia. The rest of it is just colonial leftovers! Vive le West Libre! :pt1cable: 
July 20, 2008 12:44:26 PM

Quote:
don't know what history lessons you took but you should ask for your money back.


Not to agree or disagree with either one of you, there is no way that the US military could use conventional force against a trained army more than ten times its size. Like I said before you either go to nukes or you lose. And I can't see the US using nukes again.

China is a clear and present danger to Taiwan and the world. To bring the discussion back to the topic and away from politics before the Mods nuke this thread... the point that the guy makes in the original article that Nehalem is stuck to DDR3's fortunes I think is basically a good point. If RAM shot way up in the same way it's done in the past and DDR2 got to $100/GB, then DDR3 could be $250/GB. That would mean that even a more or less basic Nehalem with 4GB RAM would cost a grand just in RAM!
a b à CPUs
July 20, 2008 12:52:16 PM

^ Unlikely...

We have many fabs everywhere anyway. The first wave of running out would not seriously effect anyone... the remaining RAM modules will be interchanged among people and yeah... old USA fabs will be upgraded to support DDR3 and etc.

Sure it will be more expensive, but not that much so...

If they don't use nukes they'll use cluster bombs =)

StevieD said:
Canada has announced they will attack the USA in Five Minutes.

There is a Canadian Cruiser parked off the East Coast of the United States loaded with two Cruise Missiles aimed at Washington DC. That Cruiser and two missiles is the extent of the Canadian Military Force, but what the heck they are making a good show of force.

What would President McCain do? I say it would take McCain 2 seconds to order a pre-emptive Military Strike against the Canadian Cruiser and the rest of the Canuks.

What would President Hillary do? I say it would take Hilliary 5 seconds to order a pre-emptive Military Strike agains the Canadian Cruiser and the rest of the Canuks. It would take Hilliary the extra time because she would have to ask Bill where the button was located.

What would President Obama do? Good Question. I suspect the USA would surrender to Canada.


Nah, if America's President was Tom Clancy (or Jack Ryan (fictional)) people would ask "What is Canada?"... the entire world would be part of America. Tom Clancy would just create a secret army of nuclear submarines, then use the weapons fund to create a defensive inter-continental ballistic missile system... and why do I know this?..
a c 123 à CPUs
July 20, 2008 8:29:51 PM

Quote:
don't know what history lessons you took but you should ask for your money back.


So you are saying that in WWII ifthe US never got involved, never sent supplies to Russia and Britain that somehow they would have beaten back Germany and Japan without any other help?

And you don't realize that even with a smaller amount of people you never underestimate a country that has proven to be very formidable in its short history.

Kinda like Rome. It started off very small but they took over most of the known world at the time.

amdfangirl said:
^ Unlikely...

We have many fabs everywhere anyway. The first wave of running out would not seriously effect anyone... the remaining RAM modules will be interchanged among people and yeah... old USA fabs will be upgraded to support DDR3 and etc.

Sure it will be more expensive, but not that much so...

If they don't use nukes they'll use cluster bombs =)



Nah, if America's President was Tom Clancy (or Jack Ryan (fictional)) people would ask "What is Canada?"... the entire world would be part of America. Tom Clancy would just create a secret army of nuclear submarines, then use the weapons fund to create a defensive inter-continental ballistic missile system... and why do I know this?..


Maybe you have read too many of his books?

I say we vote Freakazoid for president. He will be the right choice.
July 21, 2008 4:37:49 AM

antonmadcow said:
China is a clear and present danger to Taiwan and the world. To bring the discussion back to the topic and away from politics before the Mods nuke this thread... the point that the guy makes in the original article that Nehalem is stuck to DDR3's fortunes I think is basically a good point. If RAM shot way up in the same way it's done in the past and DDR2 got to $100/GB, then DDR3 could be $250/GB. That would mean that even a more or less basic Nehalem with 4GB RAM would cost a grand just in RAM!


Let's assume China did take Taiwan, and RAM prices started climbing. What would stop other companies, not based in Taiwan or affected by China's actions, to start producing DDR2 or DDR3 memory modules? All a company has to do is reverse engineer the memory module. All that is needed are fabs.

Intel, IBM, X-Fabs, Texas Instruments, and those in Europe can start producing RAM modules or even use fab capacity as a foundry (IBM does this already), especially if they become a profitable item. What you might even see are memory companies, like STMicro and Micron in mergers with big companies, for their R&D capabilities in RAM.

Now, where would that leave China? Probably sanctioned (by the U.N. or whatever body) from selling their products globally, for their actions, which in turn will drastically affect their own economy.

Did the author even remember when memory did cost an arm and leg, before quantities were huge? So, the prices will spike, until a few companies start pumping out memory. Then they will stabilize and eventually drop in price. Also, how would MS's cancellation of Windows 7 cause Intel to stop making CPUs? They didn't stop when Windows 95, 98, ME, XP were being developed. So, why would they stop because of Win 7's cancellation? If anything, they would look at other OS's or even back Apple's OS. Windows isn't the only OS around, just the most used. Also, MS would still need to make money, so they would probably release a crappy version of Win7 and expect everyone to live on Windows Updates (similar to today).

Oh, and one last thing that the author is totally off base on. Intel develops a process to switch to, not a product line. 45nm is a process, Nehalem is a product. Intel will not make all their fabs 100% Nehalem products right away. That takes a few years to do. Take the dual and quad cores. If what the author thinks will happen, would mean that Intel stopped making dual cores, as soon as fabs were able to produce quads. That isn't the case. Also, if Intel does see a drastic change, like a lack of DDR3, what is to stop Intel from gaining the IMC design from the Abu Dhabi based Mubadala Development Company, that sold off AMD's assets, to be able to utilize DDR2?

Simply put, while the author does have a vivid imagination, he made it seem as though all the companies have all their eggs in one basket. But reality shows a different story.

Now, if the author made China take over all the silicon ingot manufacturing, that would be a different story.
!