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How low can nVidia go?

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a b U Graphics card
July 8, 2008 6:55:24 PM

OK, we all know the G280 is overpriced. Soon, maybe in a weeks time , we will see the R700, or the 4870x2 previews. Its certain this card will demolish the G280. According to good rumor, this card will be a consistent 15% faster than the 4870 in CF. Itll sell at reportedly 500USD. Thats the current price of the G280, so naturally it will have to come down in price. Thinking this thru, theres also a 4870 GDDR3 version and or a 4850x2 version coming as well. If these solutions use the side port like the 4870x2, there should be huge performance gains usually not seen in CF. So, my point is, being that these cards may come out soon, besides the 4870x2, of course theyll be cheaper, especially a 4850x2 for maybe a little under 400USD, and still be able to kill the G280, wheres that leave the pricing for this card?

More about : low nvidia

July 8, 2008 7:06:10 PM

Oh damn I thought we were heading to nVidia going OTC and selling as a penny stock and/or who's going to buy them.
My Bad!
July 8, 2008 7:09:35 PM

The Green Team are pretty much shafted......
Related resources
July 8, 2008 7:10:38 PM

the only one way you can go when your in the gutter and that's up
July 8, 2008 7:17:44 PM

nVidia plan to come up with a high end monster(like 8800 ultra was for its time) in 2 months time according to nordic. On a side note, if 4870X2 will cost just 500$, whats the use of owning a crossfire mobo.....seeing that mobo costs more, as well crossfire isnt as good as X2 :o 
a b U Graphics card
July 8, 2008 7:20:53 PM

Theyre getting shoved down already, this will really hurt. Im sure G280s would sell well at 350USD, but can nVidia make any money on them? And whats that do to the G260? 275? This may get ugly
July 8, 2008 7:22:22 PM

well, nvidia will have to drop prices and introduce a product to beat the 4870, hopefully it will be a better product and doesn't cost as much as the gtx 280 initially.
a b U Graphics card
July 8, 2008 7:23:58 PM

wrazor said:
nVidia plan to come up with a high end monster(like 8800 ultra was for its time) in 2 months time according to nordic. On a side note, if 4870X2 will cost just 500$, whats the use of owning a crossfire mobo.....seeing that mobo costs more, as well crossfire isnt as good as X2 :o 

Link please? They need a monster at this point, and cheap one too
July 8, 2008 7:26:40 PM

Nvidia is screwed essentially.

However, it all depends on the performance of the 4870x2. As we have seen before, many of ATI's cards get overhyped. I know that the 4850/70 performed above and beyond what was expected, but the 4870x2 may not.

I would agree that there is a very good chance it will blow the GTX 280 out of the water like there's no tommorrow, however as we know, ATI is using a new system to connect the cores which may or may not actually increase scaling and lessen stuttering.

So, as i said, i think that all Nvidia can do right now is pray that the 4870x2 is a flop.

Also, don't forget Nvidia is working on the 55nm shrink of the GT200 core, the GT200b. That will reduce costs and increase performance. If they can get it out fast, they could easily be on par with ATI, at least vs the 4850/70.

I would guess that if they got out the 55nm, they would just cut their losses with the GTX 280/260 and drop the product.

Edit: I'd like to see a link to the "monster" that nvidia will be putting out aswell.
a b U Graphics card
July 8, 2008 7:35:20 PM

From what Ive read, people testing the x2s show a 15% increase, as drivers are being developed. Looks like the real deal for the X2. Theres been too many hints from AMD itself, especially when they said about the PCI-2 going way back.
a b U Graphics card
July 8, 2008 7:39:37 PM

SS, thats true, and its almost exclusively nVidia, as they drug out the G80 series forever, and made a die shrink and called some G80 and some G92, and they had like 10 units in small increments. This is straight forward. You have 2 cards, and possibly, most likely 2 X2 cards from ATI, or essentially just 4 cards at mid to highend. 4 vs at least 10 is an easy do
July 8, 2008 7:41:19 PM

wrazor said:
nVidia plan to come up with a high end monster(like 8800 ultra was for its time) in 2 months time according to nordic. On a side note, if 4870X2 will cost just 500$, whats the use of owning a crossfire mobo.....seeing that mobo costs more, as well crossfire isnt as good as X2 :o 


Dude, I bet they would price it at $800 (and I bet that "many" would even buy it). Regarding the CrossFire mobo issue, well, most enthusiasts own an Intel based mobo with a P35/X38 or above anyway, so, it's no big deal. Most mobos come with CrossFire support nowadays, so, it's not as if there were a "premium" for it (except in X38/X48 cases, although X38 is quite cheap nowadays).

Anyway, check this out, guys: http://www.theinquirer.net/gb/inquirer/news/2008/07/07/...

Nvidia is having some problems with the "can-of-whoop-ass". Well, they can release this "monster" card that rumors are talking about, but don't forget that GTX 280 was already supposed to be this card - leaving ATI with no chance whatsoever in the market - and it failed miserably to deliver. Besides, it's not like they can come up with a different arch every 2 months: they can just improve GT200 under 55nm and that's it. GTX 280X2 would probably be financial suicide, even if they managed to release it without burning your case or using a dedicated PSU. It would also prove to be another shot in the foot when their next arch shows up, just like 9800GX2. They'll probably just screw themselves again.
July 8, 2008 7:44:13 PM

This topic is kinda funny considering that Nvidia still offers the fastest GPU available for purchase.
a b U Graphics card
July 8, 2008 7:48:18 PM

For 1 more week.
July 8, 2008 7:51:03 PM

1. Are we sure there's going to be a 4850X2? (link plz)
2. Nvidia does have the fastest card at the moment but we've already seen the 2 4870 beat the 280 in many cases so it's safe to assume the 4870X2 will do the same

Also, this is gonna sound like the dummest thing ever but, since the 4870X2 is "Supposed" to work more like a single GPU rather than 2 GPUs in CF would it be technicly possible to Tri CF that thing? (getting 6 GPUs to work like 3)
July 8, 2008 7:52:22 PM

JAYDEEJOHN said:
Link please? They need a monster at this point, and cheap one too

I guess that would be the 55nm GT200b, which supposedly taped out a while ago. I wouldn't expect that to completely turn the tides though, based on what 55nm did for G92 (not much).

As for your OP, NVIDIA can go as low as they want, but I don't think selling GTX260s at $300 or 9800GTXs at $200 yields much of a profit. At least not as much as AMD gets on the 4850s and 4870s at their respective price points. NVIDIA seems to be more concerned with holding on to market share than making money right now, kinda like what AMD has been doing with its CPUs since the release of Conroe.
July 8, 2008 7:54:09 PM

didn't ATi say something about not making a card priced over $500?
July 8, 2008 7:54:39 PM

rodney_ws said:
This topic is kinda funny considering that Nvidia still offers the fastest GPU available for purchase.



Which is soundly beaten by ATI's offering for the same price. :) 
July 8, 2008 7:58:12 PM

jonyb222 said:
1. Are we sure there's going to be a 4850X2? (link plz)

I think it's up to the AIB partners, and you can bet at least some of them will be all over it.
jonyb222 said:
4870X2 is "Supposed" to work more like a single GPU rather than 2 GPUs in CF would it be technicly possible to Tri CF that thing? (getting 6 GPUs to work like 3)

Whatever magic ATI has planned for the 4870X2 it will still almost certainly use AFR, and as far as I know AFR doesn't scale past 4 GPUs. Also, even if it could be done with AFR, rendering 6 frames in advance isn't such a good idea...
July 8, 2008 8:02:56 PM

rodney_ws said:
This topic is kinda funny considering that Nvidia still offers the fastest GPU available for purchase.


Not at all. Ask those nice investors who lost 30% of their money this week if they care about the fastest GPU available for purchase. They care about how many they can sell for $???.
July 8, 2008 8:04:12 PM

nvidia: stop not so hard

ait: shut up take it like a man

nvidia: ooo ooo OOO

ati: your ma bitch
July 8, 2008 8:12:46 PM

homerdog said:
Whatever magic ATI has planned for the 4870X2 it will still almost certainly use AFR, and as far as I know AFR doesn't scale past 4 GPUs. Also, even if it could be done with AFR, rendering 6 frames in advance isn't such a good idea...


yes but will the 4870X2 be recognized as 1 or 2 GPUs? :D 

But anyways, I checked for various pictures of the X2 and it seems that it won't be possible to Tri CF the suckers (as in theres only 1 CF connector)

Speaking of which, a friend of mine told me that GPUs are actually many small cores put together or something similar. I'm just curious if he's gone crazy or not
a c 108 U Graphics card
a b Î Nvidia
July 8, 2008 8:21:48 PM

Its going to be like the cpu price war all over again.

I am so getting a 4870 or 4870x2 out of this :) 
July 8, 2008 8:28:43 PM

If you want the fastest single GPU setup (i.e. no compatibility issues... no stuttering issues) Nvidia still holds all the cards. Best value? Hell no... but that is still the reality... they have the highest performing single GPU card this week and for the foreseeable future.

July 8, 2008 8:30:35 PM

^^Nukemaster just gave me an idea, could it be possible to put:

4870X2 <==> 4870 <==> 4870X2

Connected in that order of CF in a huge case?
July 8, 2008 8:30:42 PM

jonyb222 said:
yes but will the 4870X2 be recognized as 1 or 2 GPUs? :D 

But anyways, I checked for various pictures of the X2 and it seems that it won't be possible to Tri CF the suckers (as in theres only 1 CF connector)

Speaking of which, a friend of mine told me that GPUs are actually many small cores put together or something similar. I'm just curious if he's gone crazy or not


He's not that far off. I mean, each GPU core on a HD 4xxx card has 800 shader processors, which could be considered like mini-cores in themselves I guess. Same for Nvidia, except they use around 240 (I think) with their GTX 2xx series, but supposedly each individual one in a Nvidia core is more powerful than an individual one in an ATI core.
a b U Graphics card
July 8, 2008 8:32:29 PM

Compatibility may have hugely improved, and the stuttering issue, well that to each own. Some see it, some dont
July 8, 2008 8:36:24 PM

mathiasschnell said:
He's not that far off. I mean, each GPU core on a HD 4xxx card has 800 shader processors, which could be considered like mini-cores in themselves I guess. Same for Nvidia, except they use around 240 (I think) with their GTX 2xx series, but supposedly each individual one in a Nvidia core is more powerful than an individual one in an ATI core.


And I'm guessing they can't implement something like HyperTransport to make communications quicker?

Here's a 40% share source:
http://www.techpowerup.com/index.php?64144
July 8, 2008 8:38:35 PM

Like someone mentioned, this just feels like the Intel/AMD cpu war all over again when Conroe came out, except this time, AMD is delivering the beat down.

I'm just waiting for the right time to upgrade my 2900XTs.
July 8, 2008 8:39:41 PM

jonyb222 said:
yes but will the 4870X2 be recognized as 1 or 2 GPUs? :D 

It doesn't matter what it is recognized as, it is two GPUs. One renders the odd frames and one renders the even.
jonyb222 said:
Speaking of which, a friend of mine told me that GPUs are actually many small cores put together or something similar. I'm just curious if he's gone crazy or not

No, he's not crazy, but calling the ALUs in a GPU "cores" is a bit misleading. If you look at it like that then regular old CPUs have had lots of "cores" for years since (and maybe even before) the integration of floating point coprocessors.
July 8, 2008 8:44:27 PM

@Homerdog you're probly right, though I would be so excited if they did something new that would allow it to scale past 4 (and maybe do the 5 way CF I discribed 2-3 posts back)

Of course it is all in the realm of the impossible, but I really like to dream big :p 
a b U Graphics card
July 8, 2008 8:49:33 PM

So...now the guys who were complaing about comparing the 9800Gx2 to the 3870 now want to compare the 4870X2 to the 280? Of course 2 cards are faster than one...compare it to 2 280's in SLI, then lets see what happens.

That being said, its clear NVIDIA is mikling its current archetecture for all its worth. Word is, they're working on a new architecture right now, so lets see where that ends up shall we?
a b U Graphics card
July 8, 2008 8:51:41 PM

I think Nvidia really screwed up with the development of the GT200 chip much like ATI did with the HD2900 series (however not as severely). The HD2900 still holds the all time FUBAR crown for the release of a Graphics card.

Nvidia already announced their profits will be 150-200 million less this quarter due to some faulty laptop chips. Wall Street did not act to favorably towards that announcement.

Now with this ATI price war I think Nvidia is going to have to lower their forecast again.

It doesn't look good for Nvidia at all.
July 8, 2008 8:55:50 PM

It depends on how high they start the price in order to see how low they will go in price. The GTX280 is not even DX10.1 compliant, they should be charging 280.00 for that obsolete card. Makes good marketing sense 280.00 dollars for a GTX 280.

a b U Graphics card
July 8, 2008 9:03:01 PM

maximiza said:
It depends on how high they start the price in order to see how low they will go in price. The GTX280 is not even DX10.1 compliant, they should be charging 280.00 for that obsolete card. Makes good marketing sense 280.00 dollars for a GTX 280.

I don't know if Nvidia can go that low. I have read articles online saying that the yields for the GT200 chips at 65nm are horrible. As low as 40% in some batches.

Yet at the same time the yields for the RV770 chips at 55nm have been unbelievably good for ATI thus lowering their operating expenses. Nvidia will not be able to compete with ATI in price just because their cost of manufacturing is higher.

BTW...This has been a great thread so far. Lots of good points of discussion brought up.
a b U Graphics card
July 8, 2008 9:04:35 PM

Quote:
Quote:
The HD2900 still holds the all time FUBAR crown for the release of a Graphics car


even the FX series?
That was before my day. I don't know the details of the FX cards other than a co-worker of mine bought one and the sucker caught on fire and burned up his PC. And that is at stock speeds without overclocking.
July 8, 2008 9:07:12 PM

^rwayne^ Not just the yields since the card in general is bigger and has more intricate wiring (such as the 512 bit interface) (as in the sense it costs more not just that there's a higher chance of it not working)

I'm sorry to beat a dead horse but I REALLY wanna know what people think of this:

4870X2 <==> 4870 <==> 4870X2

Connected in that order of CF in a huge case, would it be possible given the right drivers?
July 8, 2008 9:11:17 PM

:pt1cable:  "AMD’s dual-GPU ATI Radeon 4870 X2 (clocked at 778 MHz) is estimated to hit 2.49 Tflop/sec. when it debuts within the next few weeks."

:lol:  that is double Nivdia Tflop
July 8, 2008 9:41:21 PM

First off, I am not a fanboy of either company. Whoever has the best performance PER DOLLAR....thats where my money goes. My current setup is all Nvidia with an Intel processor, but I've owned AMD processors and used ATI cards as well.

Ok....heres whats going to happen.

ATI will release the 4870x2 and it will be faster than a GTX280 while only costing $499 or so. ATI's 4000 series is very good with antialiasing and anisotrophic filtering so when those features are activated at high resolution on the x2, it will stomp a single GTX280. When you pair two GTX280's in SLI, they will probably compete with or beat a single 4870x2.

Now, when you pair two 4870x2's together in quad crossfire.....that will be the fastest graphics setup money can buy but ONLY FOR GAMES THAT SCALE WELL WITH MULTI-GPU SETUPS. This setup will dominate benchmarks until....

Nvidia shrinks their current architechture to 55nm. At that point, we will see clock speed increases that will make GTX280 more competitive with ATI's 4000 series. Remember also that you can actually pair three GTX280s in three way SLI so that when combined with a die shrink and a clock speed increase, they will probably trade blows with crossfired 4870x2's. Die shrink also means better yield which translates into lower prices.

As I see it right now, ATI has two major advantages over Nvidia:

1. Crossfire is platform independent - works with Intel or AMD motherboards. You are not required to own an AMD motherboard to utilize CS. For me as an Nvidia user stuck with an Nvidia motherboard for SLI support right now - I'm seriously eyeballing an X48 motherboard with either two 4870's or two 4870x2's.

2. Their performance per dollar is outstanding. Nvidia right now will loose money trying to match or beat ATI's offerings with their current die size and yield of G200.

Sorry about the length all, my two cents for ya.
July 8, 2008 9:57:56 PM

rwayne said:
I think Nvidia really screwed up with the development of the GT200 chip much like ATI did with the HD2900 series (however not as severely).

Nvidia already announced their profits will be 150-200 million less this quarter due to some faulty laptop chips. Wall Street did not act to favorably towards that announcement.

Now with this ATI price war I think Nvidia is going to have to lower their forecast again.

It doesn't look good for Nvidia at all.



150-200 million less this quarter due to some faulty laptop chips, that what has told wall street but i wonder how deep this go's i think it might run deeper than that may be mother boards or even gfx cards

it could be the tip of the iceberg
a c 108 U Graphics card
a b Î Nvidia
July 8, 2008 10:06:04 PM

Quote:
If you want the fastest single GPU setup (i.e. no compatibility issues... no stuttering issues) Nvidia still holds all the cards. Best value? Hell no... but that is still the reality... they have the highest performing single GPU card this week and for the foreseeable future.
There is no way to deny that fact. But if ati can make a 2 in one beat nvidia's 1 in 1 for cheaper, it will take off some shine.

Nvidia also needs to improve there vista 64 support(at least for the 8800GTX, hell they took years to get S-Video overscan to even work on XP, just was not an option). Yes i can do back to XP, but since slapping in my old X1900XT makes ALL problems(several games just crash some run poorly and others lock the system up) i have ever had go away, well its clear that its not microsoft this time. I am running inf modded GTS 280 drivers that work much better, shame nvidia will not release then for the 8800GTX officially.

Quote:
4870X2 <==> 4870 <==> 4870X2

They could connect(with flexible crossfire connectors), but will ati make the drivers? i do not think anyone knows. How much of a cpu bottleneck would you get? i do not think there are any answers for that either.
July 8, 2008 10:21:15 PM

In my opinion, Nvidia will price the GTX 280 as low as they have to. Selling them for $400 and little, if any profit, is better than not selling at all. Nvidia has the funds to recover even if they do not make a lot of money off the GTX 200 series (remember the high end is not representative of their overall business). It will hurt them, but I'm sure they will be competitive again by the next cycle.
July 8, 2008 10:53:59 PM

jcorqian said:
In my opinion, Nvidia will price the GTX 280 as low as they have to. Selling them for $400 and little, if any profit, is better than not selling at all. Nvidia has the funds to recover even if they do not make a lot of money off the GTX 200 series (remember the high end is not representative of their overall business). It will hurt them, but I'm sure they will be competitive again by the next cycle.



Indeed, if AMD was able to crawl out of the damnable financial stinkpit they were in after Phenom and HD 2000/HD3000 then Nvidia will walk 1 bad cycle off pretty easily in comparison. People seem to forget what companies they are talking about, and this is the only bloody thing AMD has done right in quite a while now.


On topic: I think the 4870x2 will be an excellent gpu - I have really high hopes for it.
July 8, 2008 11:02:48 PM

Jpmeaney said:
First off, I am not a fanboy of either company. Whoever has the best performance PER DOLLAR....thats where my money goes. My current setup is all Nvidia with an Intel processor, but I've owned AMD processors and used ATI cards as well.

Ok....heres whats going to happen.

ATI will release the 4870x2 and it will be faster than a GTX280 while only costing $499 or so. ATI's 4000 series is very good with antialiasing and anisotrophic filtering so when those features are activated at high resolution on the x2, it will stomp a single GTX280. When you pair two GTX280's in SLI, they will probably compete with or beat a single 4870x2.

Now, when you pair two 4870x2's together in quad crossfire.....that will be the fastest graphics setup money can buy but ONLY FOR GAMES THAT SCALE WELL WITH MULTI-GPU SETUPS. This setup will dominate benchmarks until....

Nvidia shrinks their current architechture to 55nm. At that point, we will see clock speed increases that will make GTX280 more competitive with ATI's 4000 series. Remember also that you can actually pair three GTX280s in three way SLI so that when combined with a die shrink and a clock speed increase, they will probably trade blows with crossfired 4870x2's. Die shrink also means better yield which translates into lower prices.

As I see it right now, ATI has two major advantages over Nvidia:

1. Crossfire is platform independent - works with Intel or AMD motherboards. You are not required to own an AMD motherboard to utilize CS. For me as an Nvidia user stuck with an Nvidia motherboard for SLI support right now - I'm seriously eyeballing an X48 motherboard with either two 4870's or two 4870x2's.

2. Their performance per dollar is outstanding. Nvidia right now will loose money trying to match or beat ATI's offerings with their current die size and yield of G200.

Sorry about the length all, my two cents for ya.


Yes, Two things NVidia need to especally pay attenion too with the x58 coming out with intel new proccessor it is very much ATI advantage to be able to have intel support crossfire. The fact that the new proccessor will only work with the x58, Nividia needs to come up with a board to support it intel processor.
July 8, 2008 11:02:53 PM

oooh if the prices of the gtx260 are going below $300 then im going with that but the question is when ?
July 8, 2008 11:03:09 PM

40% market share is by current sales not what most gamers are using which Nvidia currently dominates. The reality is most gamers out there are using Nvidia 4:1 to Ati. So while to 40% is important to investors to us it's rather pointless. Even to investors it's still rather ugly because AMD still has no answer for Intel. Their server business that they worked so hard to earn is dead and they can only compete in thrift market with skinny margins. I think Nvidia need not panic as long as they can sort out their fab problems. They been in the lead almost uncontested for 20 months.

While I'm very interested in the 4870x2 I'm having a hard time justifying the purchase. The performance of these cards isn't all that impressive. By years end Intel could be wearing the crown by a large margin.

Über cards should have long life spans like my 8800 GTX in order to justify the price. Today's cards wont be top dogs for more than 6 months. This is good for the masses but makes you think twice before buying a high-end card. Just not sure which approach is better for innovation. What is clear to me is we are going to be taking baby steps for a while.
a b U Graphics card
July 8, 2008 11:22:31 PM

alfrido said:
oooh if the prices of the gtx260 are going below $300 then im going with that but the question is when ?
Why would you go with a GTX260? By the time it hits $300 the HD4850s will be selling for $150 and two of them would blow away even a GTX280. Newegg already has 4850s selling for $179 after rebate.

If the HD4850 goes to $150 the HD4870 would likely drop to $250 which would beat out a GTX260 and even a GTX280 in some benches like GRID.
July 8, 2008 11:39:25 PM

extremefire said:
I'm just waiting for the right time to upgrade my 2900XTs.


I'm willing to take those off your hands...or just one, whatever. :D 


As for nVidia, they'll most likely be fine after a little while. I think they'll be able to recover the shock of AMD kicking their asses all over the place after the first couple of months. I just hope the 45nm Phenoms are as much of a surprise and step up as the HD48xx series is.
July 8, 2008 11:45:23 PM

bydesign said:
40% market share is by current sales not what most gamers are using which Nvidia currently dominates. The reality is most gamers out there are using Nvidia 4:1 to Ati. So while to 40% is important to investors to us it's rather pointless.


If you look at Steam's user statistics, you'll see that about 50% of their users use ATI cards. These are statistics over many thousands of gamers (albeit skewed toward FPS players - but those are typically the more demanding titles anyway). Granted, the ATI cards in use are mostly quite old, but they dominate the DX9 landscape, which is still prominent for the average user base. There is no doubt that Nvidia has dominated the DX10 cards, though.

Incidentally, when thinking about Nvidia's profit margins, one should keep in mind that the GTX260 and GTX280 are identical chips with a small bus and memory disadvantage (disabled portions of the chip and less memory) to the GTX260. It probably costs virtually the same for Nvidia to produce each of these cards, so however low the price of the GTX260 can go, the GTX280 can go nearly as low. This of course slashes the profit margins on their highest profit-margin cards and will hurt overall profits considerably, however small a market share such high-end cards actually have.
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