Intel tick tock locked?

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Hearing all this bad news about the economy, and Intels warnings, and their stocks dropping, and their release (or soon to be) i7, whichll come in at a big expeniture vs existing cpus, this may throw a wrench in the famed tick tock of Intel.
As they operate at a somewhat projected profit margin, theres no way of them hitting it and still progressing at their stated pace. All the stock owners at Intel will cry foul if i7 doesnt start selling as well as their current gen, and soon, as theyve also made projections as to how much i7 will be sold vs their older cpus, and as Ive said, this cant be done by todays standards, as the economy just wont allow for it.

Why Intel didnt see this coming is beyond me. Theyre the biggest, the brightest, the best, yet they failed to see it coming. So, all the roadmaps will have to be changed, and all their projections will have to be severly changed. Its been said AMD is already suffering, and now Intel will as well, its just that as they do, so do we.

So, all in all, the more people make of how bad it is, the worse itll be for Intel, if true, as Intel isnt immune to this. Therell be layoffs, and progress will slow. No Westmere soon, no Sandy Bridge. Itll be a shame, but what can one do? If we go out and buy AMD products, even that wont be able to spur Intel into creating better products, as their bottom will suffer too much from it, besides not getting our monies.

Its a sad world we live in today, when even the biggest are hurting so bad that it may slow progress, but thats the way it is

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

"In a surprise announcement, Intel (INTC) said Wednesday that its gloomy fourth quarter forecast wasn’t nearly gloomy enough. Instead of pulling in between $10.1 billion and $10.9 billion in sales, the chip giant expects closer to a dreadful $9 billion. The stock tumbled more than 7 percent after hours.

It’s hard to articulate just how bad this news is.

When Intel CEO Paul Otellini gave Intel’s now obsolete forecast a month ago, it was the fuzziest range the company had ever offered. The global economic crisis, he said, left things so uncertain that he couldn’t be more specific than a ballpark estimate. The low end of Intel’s old range – the $10.1 billion – would have seen sales during the normally bustling holiday quarter actually shrink compared to the ho-hum quarter before. That’s pretty much unheard of.

Well, things just got much worse than that worst-case scenario.

Intel slashed its predicted profit margin by four points. Its prediction of revenue between $8.7 billion and $9.3 billion in the fourth quarter means chip buying has fallen off a cliff, as PC and server makers around the world – folks like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Dell (DELL), IBM (IBM) and Apple (AAPL) – scramble to adjust to dramatic slowdowns in business. Intel’s warning also bodes ill for folks like Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco (CSCO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Nvidia (NVDA) and Sun Microsystems (JAVA), whose products end up in the hands of many of the same customers.

Perhaps most depressing, things are bad enough that Intel rushed to report the news. Executives had already planned to take the unusual step of giving investors a business update the week after Thanksgiving. By canceling that update and offering this one, Intel is saying things are so obviously grim there’s no point in sitting on the news. Christmas isn’t coming for the PC and server business this year. Instead of being the best quarter of 2008, Q4 will likely look like a mediocre quarter – from 2007.

The only thing scarier than these terrible numbers? The implications for next year. Sales typically drop from the fourth quarter to the first, as consumers slow down from their yuletide buying binge. But if things are already bad now, what’s to say they won’t be even worse in January?

All of this puts last week’s relatively optimistic comments from Intel senior VP Sean Maloney in a new light. Sure, Intel has plenty of cash – enough to weather even a deep recession. But if the sales outlook continues to look this bad, it won’t be long at all before Intel faces enormous pressure to cut costs and salvage earnings per share.

Actually, with numbers this bad from a tech bellwether, it might not be long before everyone in the industry is slashing costs. Merry Chistmas"
http://bigtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/11/12/intels-dire-warning/?source=yahoo_quote


Im hoping that Intel doesnt just keep with its old cpus, as this will really hurt the industry, but it looks like they may have to. Like I said, they never saw this coming, like deer in the headlights, and had to revise their outlook, and arent really sure how itll go, as theyre not sure either. No one is at this point.

 

[yomamafor1]

yawn...

Why Intel didnt see this coming is beyond me. Theyre the biggest, the brightest, the best, yet they failed to see it coming.

Everyone knew the economy was heading towards the gutter, but no one knows how soon it will. That's why during Intel's Q3 financial statement, they warned of a significant decrease of revenue. Apple did the same with their Q4. Everyone else did.

So, all in all, the more people make of how bad it is, the worse itll be for Intel, if true, as Intel isnt immune to this. Therell be layoffs, and progress will slow. No Westmere soon, no Sandy Bridge. Itll be a shame, but what can one do? If we go out and buy AMD products, even that wont be able to spur Intel into creating better products, as their bottom will suffer too much from it, besides not getting our monies.

As I explained in another post, Intel doesn't have butt loads of debt to worry about; Intel doesn't have problems trying to launch semi-competitive products; Intel doesn't have to worry about lowering the cost.

Sure there will be layoffs, but for companies like AMD, who's in the red and bleeding, its their life on the line we're talking about. While AMD still needs to fight extra hard for this winter, Intel's already planning how to spend the Christmas. Sure it wouldn't be rosy and merry as other years, but at least its better than fighting for your life outside in this chilly weather.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

^^^ look up

 

[Reynod]

Intel make good cpu's.

I don't think they really think beyond that or had much knowledge of what was on the horizon ... or they wouldn't have released i7 now.

They would have waited till the economy picked up.

Now they will look stupid if they don't roll out the line.

That dog will possibly bankrupt some of the mobo manufacturers if they can't make a buck out of it too.

For desktops anyway.

Given the current climate I would say it might be a paper launch now.

No point in gamers buying one if they already have a decent Wolfy, Kenty or Yorky rig.

Phenom I owners should probably wait for Phenom II ... at least the upgrade there (soon) won't break the bank.

And the price to build a new Nehalem will be twice that of one of the above ... again ... no discernable gain.

 

[jed]

Why Intel didnt see this coming is beyond me. Theyre the biggest, the brightest, the best, yet they failed to see it coming. So, all the roadmaps will have to be changed, and all their projections will have to be severly changed. Its been said AMD is already suffering, and now Intel will as well, its just that as they do, so do we.

Now tell all of us how AMD is going to handle themself in this economy, and how
they may have seen this coming. AMD also have a new chip coming out in this
economy, thats not as good as i7, so where do AMD stand in all of this.

 

[Reynod]

Without shoes and holding out a beggars hat at the corner of the mall with a fake oozing sore on the knee.

Hector's skimming the profits from the hat of course.

AMD is probably selling the fittings on the wall of rented premises in order to pay for the next shipment of raw materials for the foundry.

But there is hope ...

They are still looking better than the US Treasury.

 

[mi1ez]

Most students are looking better than the US treasury!

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Yea, between Hectors begging and Intel blindsightedness, the IT industry is looking bad. I just read this too, so now we have to include M$ in all the shenanigans http://www.theinquirer.net/gb/inquirer/news/2008/11/14/microsoft-cut-vista-capable
Seems like Intel couldnt cut the mustard on this one, and pulled another boner. Too bad nVidia and ATI lost out on all those sales too, but maybe that moneyt will keep Intels Pauly O from having to join Hector down at the mall

 

[ryman554]

Hearing all this bad news about the economy, and Intels warnings, and their stocks dropping, and their release (or soon to be) i7, whichll come in at a big expeniture vs existing cpus, this may throw a wrench in the famed tick tock of Intel.
As they operate at a somewhat projected profit margin, theres no way of them hitting it and still progressing at their stated pace. All the stock owners at Intel will cry foul if i7 doesnt start selling as well as their current gen, and soon, as theyve also made projections as to how much i7 will be sold vs their older cpus, and as Ive said, this cant be done by todays standards, as the economy just wont allow for it.

That is a short term view. A long term view would hold that those copanies which innovate and invest during a downturn emerge with an advantage over their competitors after the economy rebounds. And that will be factored into their stock price.

Sure, ASPs may be lowered to account for lower demand.

Why Intel didnt see this coming is beyond me. Theyre the biggest, the brightest, the best, yet they failed to see it coming. So, all the roadmaps will have to be changed, and all their projections will have to be severly changed. Its been said AMD is already suffering, and now Intel will as well, its just that as they do, so do we..

Tell me which business *did* see it coming?

Cash in king in a recession. How much cash does intel have on-hand? What about virtually any other business?

Everybody suffers here. However, to stop innovation would be suicide.

Turns out, in a good economy, just about anybody who makes a widget can make money. In a bad economy, it's only the company that makes the *best* widget that makes the money. People get a lot more discriminating and want a lot more bang for their buck. Tell me, then, how would it make business sense for intel to *slow down* their roadmap, when *accelerating* their roadmap would give them a larger competitive advantage than it otherwise would? Combine that with the *means* to do it (and the fact that 32nm development is almost complete, and 22nm is already in high swing), you are being a little to pessimistic.

(that, and the fact that all of our jobs are in a bit of jeapordy just *might* give us an incentive to work a tad bit harder

 

[squatchman]

There's a pretty obvious reason for why Intel isn't selling chips like it should be: Everyone is waiting for Core i7 to drop before doing anything. After the new architecture is launched, people will either go for the new Core or wait for the inevitable price drop of the old Core 2 quads.

I wouldn't worry about Intel too much. I'm sure their well-paid teams of trained analysts and experienced managers have looked at more situations regarding the world economy than some grammar-lacking shmoe posting on TH forums.

 

[jed]

I don't think you have to worry about intel, their in a better position
then most as far as cash is concern.
Remember they have ben make a profit every quarter since conroe,
that's over 2years,so i think you are worryin about te wrong company,
you should be worried about the company that's ben bleeding cash &
not making a profit for over 2years.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

^^ Yeah, like Pauly O's comments, I agree with you there. Im VERY worried for Intel, as they have much to take care of inthese hard times. Thye have a brand new expensive launch. Cutting prices on units that arent selling, well thats NOT good. Im thinking Intel is looking more and more like nVidia every day. Cutting prices, introducing over priced chips. Talking up in a huge way their new release, as everyone looks at the benches and says "what improvements?" , and for these prices? in THIS economy? I can see huge layoffs coming from Intel, if all this is true.

You see, Intels IP is good, but MOST of their monies are tied into fabs/production, unlike AMD or especially IBM, and thats really going to hurt Intel. If those fabs dont need the production, what then? I see companies thatre behind right now having some benefits from this slow down. If they have the money, itll be time to catch up in the IP end the R&D end, which doesnt really help the leaders as much, actually hurts them more, as it throws off their tick tock timing, their projections etc.

 

[zenmaster]

^^ Yeah, like Pauly O's comments, I agree with you there. Im VERY worried for Intel, as they have much to take care of inthese hard times. Thye have a brand new expensive launch. Cutting prices on units that arent selling, well thats NOT good. Im thinking Intel is looking more and more like nVidia every day. Cutting prices, introducing over priced chips. Talking up in a huge way their new release, as everyone looks at the benches and says "what improvements?" , and for these prices? in THIS economy? I can see huge layoffs coming from Intel, if all this is true.

You see, Intels IP is good, but MOST of their monies are tied into fabs/production, unlike AMD or especially IBM, and thats really going to hurt Intel. If those fabs dont need the production, what then? I see companies thatre behind right now having some benefits from this slow down. If they have the money, itll be time to catch up in the IP end the R&D end, which doesnt really help the leaders as much, actually hurts them more, as it throws off their tick tock timing, their projections etc.

Wow, That is the best analysis I have seen in years................

 

[squatchman]

AMD is a company on the rocks. They have no answer to Intel's Atom, and none of their other processors compete with Intel's in performance. Their products are a "fat girl in summer."(i.e. Slow, overheated, cheap)

Still, both companies will lose money before things get better, but Intel has four times the volume and six times the value to lose before their stock is worthless compared to AMD.

Unless AMD comes up with something(ANYTHING) in the next six to ten months that can compete, I see them doing major restructuring(Chapter 11-style) or merging with a bigger player that can actually stay afloat.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Not sure about AMD, they may just sell another 20% of their overhead, who knows? Too bad Intel cant do that, if the need be. Youll know times are bad when Pauly O is seen at the mall selling watches with Intel chips in em, at one of those stands.

 

[yomamafor1]

The problem is, AMD cannot afford to further sell off their manufacturing / research and development capability. Intel can afford to close several fabs down, but can AMD do that?

Personally I believe there's way too much pessimism for Intel, and too much optimism for AMD in your analysis and estimation.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

I may be wrong, and you may be right, or, we could both be wrong, and if things are really really bad, Paul Otellini may end up having to seel Intel chips out of the back of his van.... down by the riiiver

 

[jed]

^^ Yeah, like Pauly O's comments, I agree with you there. Im VERY worried for Intel, as they have much to take care of inthese hard times. Thye have a brand new expensive launch. Cutting prices on units that arent selling, well thats NOT good. Im thinking Intel is looking more and more like nVidia every day. Cutting prices, introducing over priced chips. Talking up in a huge way their new release, as everyone looks at the benches and says "what improvements?" , and for these prices? in THIS economy? I can see huge layoffs coming from Intel, if all this is true.

Your'e completely wrong comparing Intel to nVidia, look AMD/ATI beat the 280
by multi gpu's with the 4870 x2, and their nothing wrong with that. so if you want the best card AMD/ATI is it. but tell me were AMD is the cpu to have over
Intel on desktop, it's simple conroe not i7 still putting the hurt on phenom.

You see, Intels IP is good, but MOST of their monies are tied into fabs/production, unlike AMD or especially IBM, and thats really going to hurt Intel. If those fabs dont need the production, what then? I see companies thatre behind right now having some benefits from this slow down. If they have the money, itll be time to catch up in the IP end the R&D end, which doesnt really help the leaders as much, actually hurts them more, as it throws off their tick tock timing, their projections etc.

Listen if i'm building a new system with limited funds, i want the best i can
get and AMD cpu's is not it, because every price bracket theirs a better intel
cpu over AMD's.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

The problem is, AMD cannot afford to further sell off their manufacturing / research and development capability. Intel can afford to close several fabs down, but can AMD do that?

Personally I believe there's way too much pessimism for Intel, and too much optimism for AMD in your analysis and estimation.

I think JD has anointed himself the anti-Intel gloom & doom threadster. Unfortunately, the facts are not on his side.

A poster on Roborat's blog pointed out an interesting parallel between the great depression of 1873 and the current recession: http://chronicle.com/temp/reprint.php?id=477k3d8mh2wmtpc4b6h07p4hy9z83x18. To quote the most relevant section:

The long-term effects of the Panic of 1873 were perverse. For the largest manufacturing companies in the United States — those with guaranteed contracts and the ability to make rebate deals with the railroads — the Panic years were golden. Andrew Carnegie, Cyrus McCormick, and John D. Rockefeller had enough capital reserves to finance their own continuing growth. For smaller industrial firms that relied on seasonal demand and outside capital, the situation was dire. As capital reserves dried up, so did their industries. Carnegie and Rockefeller bought out their competitors at fire-sale prices. The Gilded Age in the United States, as far as industrial concentration was concerned, had begun.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Too bad Intel may not be able to sell those cpus. They make a good product, or made, depends on how much you like the i7s, but just be sure to bring your wallet, as Paul really doesnt want to have go after M$, because once nVidia AMD/ATI are gone, theres no one left to screw over, no ectras for Paul, qand if he has to go after M$, they just may take away his van, and itll be a card board box, with Intel (s head man) Inside

 

[NMDante]

Just stop, jaydeejohn.

You are making insane claims, with nothing to back it up. "Too bad Intel may not be able to sell those cpus"?

Congratulations, you are now officially in Thunderman's world. Enjoy.

It must be nice to claim not to be a fanboy, yet claim these blantatly fanboy based theories. Back them up, instead of your word play with Paul Otellini selling CPUs down by the river, from the back of a van.

No proof = fanboy. Period. Oh, I'm sure you'll say you're just saying your opinion, yet when someone shows AMD's fault, with historic fact, it's bashing. Yeah, can't have your cake and eat it too. Sorry.

You are slowly entering TROLL terriority, imo. Enjoy your trip.

 

[jed]

Too bad Intel may not be able to sell those cpus. They make a good product, or made, depends on how much you like the i7s, but just be sure to bring your wallet, as Paul really doesnt want to have go after M$, because once nVidia AMD/ATI are gone, theres no one left to screw over, no ectras for Paul, qand if he has to go after M$, they just may take away his van, and itll be a card board box, with Intel (s head man) Inside

Your'e right on target with this one, if intel goes under that because AMD & nVidia will be gone first.
Remember if intel can't sell chips, AMD is not selling anyone of theirs either.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Just poking a lil fun at the giant. Seems it was needed. Tho giants are hungry, eat alot, and it maybe that the cupboards are bare, time will tell. All the gloom and doom doesnt only effect AMD, and it wont just effect which cpu maker has to make drastic changes. Shutting down 1 fab by AMD will hurt, but imagine if Intel has to cut theirs off by 50%? And then hope to rehire those people in the future, after who knows has emerged as a solid competitor? Actually, this could be very dangerous for Intel right now, as Im sure theyre hoping AMD holds on, and someone with much more resources doesnt buy em out, thus making for true competition, and in the end, hurting Intel immensely. Theres tons of negative scenarios out there with possibilities, and before you say it wont happen, think about a weakened market, someone having the means to enter it after all this, and the cpu market and its potential, because, after all Intel IS Intel, so the market shouldnt be slighted as a major opportunity by those with means

 

[zenmaster]

Too bad Intel may not be able to sell those cpus. They make a good product, or made, depends on how much you like the i7s, but just be sure to bring your wallet, as Paul really doesnt want to have go after M$, because once nVidia AMD/ATI are gone, theres no one left to screw over, no ectras for Paul, qand if he has to go after M$, they just may take away his van, and itll be a card board box, with Intel (s head man) Inside

Your'e right on target with this one, if intel goes under that because AMD & nVidia will be gone first.
Remember if intel can't sell chips, AMD is not selling anyone of theirs either.

And after AMD goes under, that means Intel sales will jump to pickup that segment AMD used to own.