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Very bad news for everyones own personal "precious"

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November 20, 2008 1:38:00 AM

I dont care who you are a fantard for, when SIA speaks, people listen. We all know all your various preciouses are taking it in the shorts right now, but if SIAs outlook is correct, not only is the end not in sight, but there is a lot of digging yet to be done throughout the entire industry, and it will continue long enough to impact next years overall sales totals. While they are focusing on semiconductor chips, the potential cascade is blatentley apparent, with everyone down to the fan manufacturers positioned to take big hits.


SIA Forecast Doesn't Bode Well For Chip Companies


Quote:
The outlook for semiconductors is so negative that an industry group said Wednesday it expects global chip sales to decline in 2009 -- something not seen in eight years.

The Semiconductor Industry Association estimates that chip sales around the world will fall next year to $246.7 billion, down 5.6% from this year's anticipated sales of $261.2 billion. Sales this year will be up about 2.2% from 2007



Understand what they are predicting.....the market will shrink....not expand at a reduced rate, but actually shrink. Further, according to SIA, unlike the last time the market shank in 2001, this time it wont be "excessivly large inventories" but due to shear reductiion in consumption.

Baaaaaaaaaaad.
November 20, 2008 1:43:33 AM

I think the only hope is with China and India to be honest. Those are massive markets, and while not growing as fast as they were, they are probably the only markets that are still growing, if only slightly.
November 20, 2008 2:06:08 AM

piesquared said:
I think the only hope is with China and India to be honest. Those are massive markets, and while not growing as fast as they were, they are probably the only markets that are still growing, if only slightly.



Could be, but they are getting hit too, and how hard remains to be seen.

Crude prices continue to fall, and even with an optimistic (unofficial) report on increased mogas consumption last week, the latest official crude stock reports indicate the opposite with surplusses even larger than forecast. People are continuing to cutback on their consumption accross the board.

We will see a big indicator next week on "Black Friday" If consumers take their gas savings and spend more than projected on christmas presents, many will see it as a positve sign, not to mention the sales will directly help China. If sales undercut projections, not only will it be another negative indicator, but it will have a direct impact on China, if not financially then perceptually.

Sad to think so much could, potnetially, be riding on the outcome of one shopping day.
Related resources
November 20, 2008 2:30:24 AM

Yep, there's ALOT hanging in the proverbial balance. I agree, this is big.
November 20, 2008 3:32:10 AM

This is nothing compared to the coming collapse of the American auto industry.
November 20, 2008 3:55:29 AM

Let's just wait until china starts getting big into the semiconducor industry. good bye intel and AMD, goodbye fanbois :lol: 

mark my words.
November 20, 2008 5:43:33 AM

V3NOM said:
Let's just wait until china starts getting big into the semiconducor industry. good bye intel and AMD, goodbye fanbois :lol: 

mark my words.


Intel owns X86. AMD owns X86-64. Why would they license their technology to a competitor who could outmanufacture them? Until a new standard replaces X86 on the desktop, we won't see more competitors unless AMD and Intel allow the competition.

This isn't like graphics. A Chinese designed GPU might go over well if the price is right, but desktop and server CPU's? Not any time soon.

Homeboy2 said:
This is nothing compared to the coming collapse of the American auto industry.


The Big Three need to innovate and change their ways. I'm moderately pro union, but the contracts need to be more realistic too. I don't want to see the 25 billion electric car fund raided for the automakers, it should come out of the 700 billion package that's bailing out the financial industry, but the administration won't go for it, and by the time Democrats are in control of both branches, it might be too late for millions.

Billions for the financial industry that brought everyone down with them by packaging subprime mortgages as securities, but nothing for the outdated auto industry?

We need a total overhaul of our infrastructure in America, and perhaps the laid off autoworkers can be hired for a sort of WPA to rebuild bridges, roads, schools and public buildings? Until we have innovative hybrid and inner city electrics coming from the Big Three instead of gas guzzling SUV's, we won't see much future employment in that sector.

I want the auto bailout to save American jobs, and I voted for McCain. I'm just tired of the way the financial sector gets everything but any other American industry is told to sink or swim by the Bush administration.

turpit said:
We will see a big indicator next week on "Black Friday" If consumers take their gas savings and spend more than projected on christmas presents, many will see it as a positve sign, not to mention the sales will directly help China. If sales undercut projections, not only will it be another negative indicator, but it will have a direct impact on China, if not financially then perceptually.

Sad to think so much could, potnetially, be riding on the outcome of one shopping day.


I won't be spending much. Definitely not on credit. Our presents to ourselves were 3 PC builds this fall, and our present to our nieces and nephew was a PC build too. Now that the economy's tanking, I can't see spending anything else on major purchases until fall 2009.

Though I think my job's secure, I could end up with an unhappy surprise. This is the worst time since the Great Depression and we can't expect China to bail us out. Their factory workers are blaming America when they get laid off, as if not buying their products is a crime.

Read this commentary from my local town's newspaper, we shop in thrift stores for retro hippie clothes and 60's and 70's era housewares, but many people are so poor they even buy appliances there. Americans just buy too much and discard too much. Freeman has it right, we shouldn't be the donkeys keeping the world's economy truckin' along:

http://www.statesman.com/opinion/content/editorial/stor...
November 20, 2008 6:00:36 AM

I just think it's more Ironic that the entire time Bush was in office, oil prices have skyrocketed. But since Obama got elected as president, suddenly gas prices are on the way down to where they were prebush.

But in the end, we're all gonna end up having to take a bite out of the massive **** sandwich that's been served up by the last 8 years.
a c 123 à CPUs
November 20, 2008 6:33:58 AM

V3NOM said:
Let's just wait until china starts getting big into the semiconducor industry. good bye intel and AMD, goodbye fanbois :lol: 

mark my words.


Cold day in hell when my CPUs are made in China by Chinese. No offense but they are the proverbial suck when it comes to quality. I try not to buy Chinese made goods, as hard as it is, because I know its quality will be worse.

Either way they have a lot mroe to do then just copy. They have to design something new thats better than what we have that will easily move people over to it. If its to hard to move people to it, it wont happen.

Mathos said:
I just think it's more Ironic that the entire time Bush was in office, oil prices have skyrocketed. But since Obama got elected as president, suddenly gas prices are on the way down to where they were prebush.

But in the end, we're all gonna end up having to take a bite out of the massive **** sandwich that's been served up by the last 8 years.


Actually oil prices have been falling for quite a while. In fact they started to fall at about the same time this whole economic problem hit the fan.

Gas prices being high were not due to high oil prices either. Its the lack of refineries being able to pump out the needed oil. They droped a lot in the past month or so. Its $1.99 where I am and is said to be going down to even $1.50. Not too bad compared to $4.

As for the auto makers, I understand what you are saying yips but there is a lot more to it than that. Like the fact that Honda makes quite a nice profit for every car they sell. I have found that its pretty cheap for them to build and import their cars, hence why they have yet to open a plant here, and the sell price gives them nice profits.

What I find funny is how people talk about jobs here in the US, supporting the economy and instead of buying a American car that supports the workers here they buy a German or Japanese car that supports them instead.

Plus the unions kill the US automakers.

In my opinion they are not as bad as ppl say. I get better gas mileage on my Ford Contour than most equivalent Japanese cars (with a 2.5 V6) do. And its been good to me for 50K miles with no problems. My family has only owned American cars, minus my Aunt who only likes Japanese (shes the weird one), and we have had very few problems with them to date. And thats spanning from my grandfather on.

I hope the US auto dosen't go down. That would be a sad day really. Of course what will happen if it gets that bad is the other foreign car companies will buy them out. But the sad thing is that Ford at least has really been pushing a lot of new stufff. They have a hydrogen and fuel cell Focus set to be brought out, have one of the best Flex fuel engines that can have both gas and ethonol in it at the same time and still make kick ass trucks.

Man all this bad news is depressing really. I want some good news for a change.
a b à CPUs
November 20, 2008 6:44:11 AM

yipsl said:

I won't be spending much. Definitely not on credit.



Bad move . Spend or the global economy contracts further , recession deepens and more jobs are lost .

Im getting a new computer as my contribution
November 20, 2008 7:03:33 AM

jimmysmitty, +1 for the most part. Some of the above posts make me want to scream. It's amazing how misinformed some people are.
November 20, 2008 7:24:54 AM

Actually i read somewhere about licensing for x86 cpus in china... they made a 1 or 2GHz cpu or something..
November 20, 2008 8:12:19 AM

I wont buy an American car, because im not paying for high union wages and benefits. The bailout is really a union bailout and will fail unless employee compensation is reduced. They talk about limiting executive pay but it is nothing compared to employee costs.
The reason Detroit didnt build small gas efficient cars is because they couldnt make a profit on those, plus the fact nobody wanted them! The SUV and large cars were what most people wanted.
November 20, 2008 8:14:23 AM

wasnt that the cpus that emulate x86 with like a 20% performance hit?
November 20, 2008 8:24:07 AM

jimmysmitty said:
Cold day in hell when my CPUs are made in China by Chinese. No offense but they are the proverbial suck when it comes to quality. I try not to buy Chinese made goods, as hard as it is, because I know its quality will be worse.


Do you have an ATI or Nvidia GPU?



Did you know Taiwan is actually known as the Republic of China?


Thought not.
November 20, 2008 8:36:31 AM

Quote:
Cold day in hell when my CPUs are made in China by Chinese. No offense but they are the proverbial suck when it comes to quality. I try not to buy Chinese made goods, as hard as it is, because I know its quality will be worse.

Either way they have a lot mroe to do then just copy. They have to design something new thats better than what we have that will easily move people over to it. If its to hard to move people to it, it wont happen.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loongson
a c 123 à CPUs
November 20, 2008 8:55:12 AM

Amiga500 said:
Do you have an ATI or Nvidia GPU?



Did you know Taiwan is actually known as the Republic of China?


Thought not.


No freaking way.... I so did not know that..... Wow. Thanks.

Or I know that but what does my GPU have to do with my CPU? I prefer the chips to be fabed here then put together where ever. As long as the actual fabing process takes place here in the US where they can give people jobs running the fabs I am fine.

stuart72 said:
Quote:
Cold day in hell when my CPUs are made in China by Chinese. No offense but they are the proverbial suck when it comes to quality. I try not to buy Chinese made goods, as hard as it is, because I know its quality will be worse.

Either way they have a lot mroe to do then just copy. They have to design something new thats better than what we have that will easily move people over to it. If its to hard to move people to it, it wont happen.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loongson


Yea..... thats a in house chip for Chinese people since they are sick of getting 1-2 gen behind CPUs because they cannot import current gen chips.

It only emulates x86 so it is about 20% slower on our basic apps and games and such. Wont come out here.

Even if it does hit the US market I would still buy AMD/Intel and support the companies that are gving US jobs instead.
November 20, 2008 10:52:30 AM

jimmysmitty said:
No freaking way.... I so did not know that..... Wow. Thanks.

Or I know that but what does my GPU have to do with my CPU? I prefer the chips to be fabed here then put together where ever. As long as the actual fabing process takes place here in the US where they can give people jobs running the fabs I am fine.


I'm going on the assumption your yet another ill-informed xenophobe from your little rant earlier.



So when was the last time you broke a GPU? Considering TSMC makes both ATI and Nvidia GPUs...

Not much point having a good 'ol US of A CPU if you cannot actually display the processed data is there?



The Chinese make decent stuff, sure, they are still behind in a lot of areas, but they are rapidly pulling up, and will soon be racing ahead.

Compare the number of graduates in real (read: useful) subjects in China to the US or anywhere else in the western world.

In terms of useful degrees, or useful degrees per head, we (all western countries) are getting destroyed by the Chinese.
November 20, 2008 11:06:15 AM

arent most of intel and amd fabs in foreign countries anyway?
a b à CPUs
November 20, 2008 11:19:55 AM

jimmysmitty said:

Actually oil prices have been falling for quite a while. In fact they started to fall at about the same time this whole economic problem hit the fan.

Gas prices being high were not due to high oil prices either. Its the lack of refineries being able to pump out the needed oil. They droped a lot in the past month or so. Its $1.99 where I am and is said to be going down to even $1.50. Not too bad compared to $4.

As for the auto makers, I understand what you are saying yips but there is a lot more to it than that. Like the fact that Honda makes quite a nice profit for every car they sell. I have found that its pretty cheap for them to build and import their cars, hence why they have yet to open a plant here, and the sell price gives them nice profits.

What I find funny is how people talk about jobs here in the US, supporting the economy and instead of buying a American car that supports the workers here they buy a German or Japanese car that supports them instead.

Plus the unions kill the US automakers.

In my opinion they are not as bad as ppl say. I get better gas mileage on my Ford Contour than most equivalent Japanese cars (with a 2.5 V6) do. And its been good to me for 50K miles with no problems. My family has only owned American cars, minus my Aunt who only likes Japanese (shes the weird one), and we have had very few problems with them to date. And thats spanning from my grandfather on.

I hope the US auto dosen't go down. That would be a sad day really. Of course what will happen if it gets that bad is the other foreign car companies will buy them out. But the sad thing is that Ford at least has really been pushing a lot of new stufff. They have a hydrogen and fuel cell Focus set to be brought out, have one of the best Flex fuel engines that can have both gas and ethonol in it at the same time and still make kick ass trucks.

Man all this bad news is depressing really. I want some good news for a change.


First off, Ethonol is a REALLY bad idea. First off, more than any other crop, corn is the least resistent to weather. Secondly, corn is typically one of the foods used to feed produce. As less of this corn is avaliable, the price of produce starts to rise (as it did this summer after the floods in the midwest). You save on gas, but loose on food. And if you have another year of heavy flooding?

Secondly, theres a reason why only 15% of all GM vehicles on the road are over 5 years old, compared to 70% for Toyota. Ever american car I've owned dies before it hits 100k miles. My 94 Camry, which I brought used at 85k miles, is all the way up to 235k, and only had one or two minor issues along the way, and get 25 MPG to boot. Total cost: $7,500.

As for oil prices, they were largely driven up by speculators. I would know, I was one of them. Everyone knew the price of oil was over-inflated, and most everyone started to bail when it hit $140. Now, the price is too low, mainly because of the economic issues. The real price is in the neigborhood of $75-80.

I still find it funny: gas prices drop and Ford re-opens its F-150 plant. People are going to get a rude awakening when prices jump next, although NOT bailing out GM would destroy the economy anyway, so the points moot...
November 20, 2008 12:26:47 PM

Well, anyone that knows whats going on knows every 7-8 years we go thru a slowdow, or even recession. So no big surprise here, its just that its coupled with the energy costs and the housing bubble, which makes the impact greater

As far as chips goes, you may include cpus,NB,SB for mobos, and mobos themselves, but so far, the gpus have been selling like hot cakes. In times of slowdowns, many people aften take to movies for cheap entertainment, but thats changed, and todays games are where its at.

So, if you want to see growth in the HW aspect of this entire industry, Id keep an eye on the gpu segment
November 20, 2008 12:30:28 PM

I live in California, and here, we have miles and miles of orange groves. The weather here is stable, and theres plenty of changeover room for corn, as oranges arent the most needed of crops
November 20, 2008 12:47:31 PM

AMD stock is trading in 1$ range. How much longer still we get to penny stock status and de-listing from the NYSE?
November 20, 2008 1:05:21 PM

While the market is important, it shouldnt be the only focal point. Its a shame AMD and others are doing so poorly in the market, but doesnt it take awhile to be delisted? I mean, if it goes under 1$, I thought there was a sort of grace period before delisting?
November 20, 2008 1:37:06 PM

JAYDEEJOHN said:
While the market is important, it shouldnt be the only focal point. Its a shame AMD and others are doing so poorly in the market, but doesnt it take awhile to be delisted? I mean, if it goes under 1$, I thought there was a sort of grace period before delisting?


30 days of a price below $1.00, then they get a letter telling them they have 90 days to fix it.
November 20, 2008 1:38:20 PM

Amiga500 said:
I'm going on the assumption your yet another ill-informed xenophobe from your little rant earlier.



So when was the last time you broke a GPU? Considering TSMC makes both ATI and Nvidia GPUs...

Not much point having a good 'ol US of A CPU if you cannot actually display the processed data is there?



The Chinese make decent stuff, sure, they are still behind in a lot of areas, but they are rapidly pulling up, and will soon be racing ahead.

Compare the number of graduates in real (read: useful) subjects in China to the US or anywhere else in the western world.

In terms of useful degrees, or useful degrees per head, we (all western countries) are getting destroyed by the Chinese.


However, bear in mind that Taiwan (Republic of China) != China (People's Republic of China). Therefore jimmy's point still stands. Same as him, I would refrain from buying anything Made in China, because the cost saving techniques they use sometimes are dangerous and shady. The milk powder incident recently was a clear indication that China needs to improve their standards on screening.

By the way, Intel's IGPs are made in the US, therefore by saying "not much point having a good CPU if there's no display", you're being ignorant.
November 20, 2008 3:16:21 PM

yomamafor1 said:
However, bear in mind that Taiwan (Republic of China) != China (People's Republic of China). Therefore jimmy's point still stands. Same as him, I would refrain from buying anything Made in China


There are two Chinas. You've even pointed it out yourself.


For Jimmy to say:

"Cold day in hell when my CPUs are made in China by Chinese. No offense but they are the proverbial suck when it comes to quality. I try not to buy Chinese made goods, as hard as it is, because I know its quality will be worse."

Is cutting close to racism.



Quote:

By the way, Intel's IGPs are made in the US, therefore by saying "not much point having a good CPU if there's no display", you're being ignorant.


'cos those IGPs do go well with a good CPU don't they?

How'd you like your solitaire, low res or super low res? :D 
November 20, 2008 3:35:10 PM

Amiga500 said:
There are two Chinas. You've even pointed it out yourself.


For Jimmy to say:

"Cold day in hell when my CPUs are made in China by Chinese. No offense but they are the proverbial suck when it comes to quality. I try not to buy Chinese made goods, as hard as it is, because I know its quality will be worse."

Is cutting close to racism.


However, most people refer to Taiwan as Taiwan, not as Republic of China, due to potential confusion. Therefore what Jimmy's "China" refers to still applies to mainland China, not Taiwan. If you are knowledgeable as you claim (or as you implied) to be, you should know the difference.

Racism? Nah, I consider that to be a genuine comment about an observation.



By the way, Intel's IGPs are made in the US, therefore by saying "not much point having a good CPU if there's no display", you're being ignorant.[/quote said:


'cos those IGPs do go well with a good CPU don't they?

How'd you like your solitaire, low res or super low res? :D ]
By the way, Intel's IGPs are made in the US, therefore by saying "not much point having a good CPU if there's no display", you're being ignorant.

'cos those IGPs do go well with a good CPU don't they?

How'd you like your solitaire, low res or super low res? :D 
[/quote]

Yet you stated "not much point having a good CPU if there's no display". I'm just simply pointing out the logical fallacy in your argument.
November 20, 2008 4:26:00 PM

jimmysmitty said:
Cold day in hell when my CPUs are made in China by Chinese. No offense but they are the proverbial suck when it comes to quality. I try not to buy Chinese made goods, as hard as it is, because I know its quality will be worse.


They won't have a chance until X86 is history. When do you think that will be? When the Singularity arrives in 2050? :lol: 

Perhaps I'm wrong, but unless a Chinese chip maker participates in setting a new standard for desktop and server CPU's, then they won't have a license. I can't see AMD or Intel, with all their cross licensing bickering, even allowing the Chinese in.

Of course, they could do their own "Mac" (i.e. a non X86 PC), but how big a market share would they get and would it play games? They'd be better off getting into the console business with their own CPU/GPU designs using an open source OS (but then they'd still have to woo developers).

Chinese quality will improve. Remember the line from "Back to the Future" when Doc Brown said that the component failed because it was made in Japan and Marty replied "Doc, all the good stuff is made in Japan." They will get their act together when they have a true middle class and more political freedom and accountability.


jimmysmitty said:

What I find funny is how people talk about jobs here in the US, supporting the economy and instead of buying a American car that supports the workers here they buy a German or Japanese car that supports them instead.


When I lived in the Allegheny mountains of Pennsylvania, a rayon plant was near closing in the Seventies. Employees held a rally to save their jobs. In the parking lot were quite a few Subaru four wheel drive station wagons.


jimmysmitty said:

Man all this bad news is depressing really. I want some good news for a change.


Obama's election was good news. We need a change from supply side thinking. Ditch Ayn Rand and bring on the newest New Deal. Though I voted for McCain, I only did so out of loyalty and because I knew he'd win Texas. I voted for Obama in the primary vs. another "twofer". My wife voted for Obama and I'm glad he won. The John McCain I'd always voted for in Republican primaries wasn't running this time around. Made me want to ask the RNC "what did you do to John McCain?".

Outlander_04 said:
Bad move . Spend or the global economy contracts further , recession deepens and more jobs are lost .

Im getting a new computer as my contribution


Guess the rest of my post was too prolix for you. I built four computers in 2008, with some legacy parts. Here's what I bought in 2008 brand new:

An Antec Nine Hundred case for me.

An In-Win red race car case for my son.

A Phenom 8750 CPU with a Gigabyte 780G mobo for me.

An MSI 3870x2 for me.

An ASUS 3650 for my wife (she'll get a 4830 at income tax time and my son will get the 3650).

An Athlon X2 4200+ for my son, with an ASUS 780G motherboard (he's still using onboard graphics) and a 250 gig Seagate SATA drive.

Two Lacie Brick external 500 gigabyte drives (one red, one blue, hoping they'll come out with a white).

One Seagate Barracude 500 gig drive.

I also built an Athlon X2 4200+, ASUS 780G with 250 gig Seagate SATA drive and a 3650 for my two nieces and nephew as an early Christmas present last May. So they could play Guitar Hero and other casual games.

Is that enough computer purchase to keep the economy going? I admit, it's not on the one day in 2008 that the analysts claim will save the economy, but then again, the analysts were wrong about the tech bubble and the housing bubble.

In 2009, at income tax time, I'll get two 22" LCD's and move my wife's fall 2007 690G board and other hard drives to an In-Win GD case (she has 1,100 gigabytes internal storage, counting the new drive she got this year, and 1,650 gigabytes of external storage, counting the two Lacies).

Don't just buy one computer dude. Buy 3 of them but space it out over a year to keep the economy going. It's not all about Christmas and Hannuka splurges. Jesus would not be amused at Santa Clause and the Maccabees wouldn't recognize America's version of the Jewish Fourth of July.

gamerk316 said:
First off, Ethonol is a REALLY bad idea. First off, more than any other crop, corn is the least resistent to weather. Secondly, corn is typically one of the foods used to feed produce. As less of this corn is avaliable, the price of produce starts to rise (as it did this summer after the floods in the midwest). You save on gas, but loose on food. And if you have another year of heavy flooding?


Ethanol is a REALLY GOOD idea. Ethanol made from corn, or rice, is a REALLY BAD idea. Food prices go up, which hurts the poorest of the poor in third world countries and causes a minor nuisance to those of us middle classers in the West.

Ethanol from non food crops like switchgrass is a very good idea.

http://gas2.org/2008/08/01/dedicated-energy-crops-could...

There are also other sources of biofuel that can be harnessed on land not suitable for food crops.

Algae:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/4213775.h...
November 20, 2008 5:34:52 PM

gamerk316 said:
First off, Ethonol is a REALLY bad idea. First off, more than any other crop, corn is the least resistent to weather. Secondly, corn is typically one of the foods used to feed produce. As less of this corn is avaliable, the price of produce starts to rise (as it did this summer after the floods in the midwest). You save on gas, but loose on food. And if you have another year of heavy flooding?
Dead on. The whole Ethanol from corn idea was one of the dumbest ever. It has already driven the price of food up significantly worldwide. For you bleeding hearts, there are a lot of people in third world nations starving while you fill your tanks with corn, but we must save the environment to offset China polluting it. :lol:  Not that Ethanol production doesn't create pollution. The big deal is the price increase in food and the depleted food stores in the united states. Here are the Department of Agriculture Commodity Credit Corporation's numbers, in case you didn't believe me. Wait untill we have a catastrophe and there is no food to distribute, and it's only going to get worse, if that's even possible. It's a total scam and anyone that thinks it's a good idea is seriously misinformed or an idiot or both.
gamerk316 said:
Secondly, theres a reason why only 15% of all GM vehicles on the road are over 5 years old, compared to 70% for Toyota. Ever american car I've owned dies before it hits 100k miles. My 94 Camry, which I brought used at 85k miles, is all the way up to 235k, and only had one or two minor issues along the way, and get 25 MPG to boot. Total cost: $7,500.
There are plenty of Japanese cars that are junk and the parts generally cost more when you get out your wrenches. Your attitude reminds me of the time I worked at the GM Tech Center. The parking lot was full of foreign (Japanese) cars. I asked a guy, "Why the he!! aren't you buying GM cars since that is where you get your money from? He told me, "I'll buy an American car when they make a good one." I had to laugh my a$$ off. :lol:  :lol: 
gamerk316 said:
As for oil prices, they were largely driven up by speculators, I would know, I was one of them. Everyone knew the price of oil was over-inflated, and most everyone started to bail when it hit $140. Now, the price is too low, mainly because of the economic issues. The real price is in the neigborhood of $75-80.
Your right the speculators did have an impact in raising the price, thanks for participating. The answer to this problem is to increase margins such that the oil futures market is used for its intended purpose. How did you come up with the magic number of $75-80 a barrel? Is that based on the world demand and OPECs artificially restricted supply? Here's a novel idea, START DRILLING FOR OIL IN THE F ING US. The Chinese are off the coast of Florida sucking our oil up and the boobs (US citizens and elected representative government aka Congress) refuse to allow the US to pump it. Is that the stupidest thing you have ever heard? Another thought, BUILD MORE NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS. The conversion to renewable is a good idea, unfortunately IT TAKES TIME. It's not going to happen overnight no matter how much we we dream about it. Then of course there is oil from oil shale, which according to Jet Blue's founder, David Neeleman, would cost about $40 a barrel. He tried to get a consortium to do this with Fed backed loans, should the price of oil drop precipitously, but the Feds said no.


a b à CPUs
November 20, 2008 6:45:13 PM

It sounds like a particularly poor time for AMD/TheFoundry to be investing in more fab capacity. While it takes a long lead time to bring new capacity online, this depression may not be over in a couple of years in which case there won't be enough business to support current capacity, let alone new.

OTOH, if UAE builds any new fabs in the Emirates, then expect to see the Somali pirates making off with boatloads of AMD CPUs :) 
a b à CPUs
November 20, 2008 6:57:20 PM

Amiga500 said:
There are two Chinas. You've even pointed it out yourself.


For Jimmy to say:

"Cold day in hell when my CPUs are made in China by Chinese. No offense but they are the proverbial suck when it comes to quality. I try not to buy Chinese made goods, as hard as it is, because I know its quality will be worse."

Is cutting close to racism.



Mainland Chinese goods are known throughout Southeast Asia for (1) being cheap and (2) having nonexistent quality. Those who can afford to, or who can borrow or beg the money, buy Korean or Taiwanese or Japanese goods; the rest buy mainland Chinese and expect to be making another purchase within a year. For example, my wife (who is Vietnamese) has a lot of friends who are stuck with having to buy Chinese motorcycles, typically around $600 new, and which after a year typically cost hundreds in repairs each year. However if they can come up with $2000 they can get a Honda which lasts 10 years or more with routine maintenance. This isn't being racist - it's being experienced :) .
November 20, 2008 7:08:24 PM

Obama election a good thing? :non:  McCain was a R.I.N.O thats why he lost.

Chinese quality IS crap. Its racism to speak the truth? FWAP! The sound of the race card being played! :fou: 
November 20, 2008 7:12:54 PM

yomamafor1 said:
However, most people refer to Taiwan as Taiwan, not as Republic of China, due to potential confusion. Therefore what Jimmy's "China" refers to still applies to mainland China, not Taiwan. If you are knowledgeable as you claim (or as you implied) to be, you should know the difference.

Racism? Nah, I consider that to be a genuine comment about an observation.


I didn't (and still don't) like the comment "by Chinese" - racial undertones to me.



Quote:

Yet you stated "not much point having a good CPU if there's no display". I'm just simply pointing out the logical fallacy in your argument.


Perhaps, perhaps...

But outside of using a text interface, you aren't going to do an awful lot that would need a good CPU without a good GPU...


Open office will happily run on a pentium 2... I'm sure it will run on even older systems just fine.
November 20, 2008 7:17:56 PM

fazers_on_stun said:
For example, my wife (who is Vietnamese) has a lot of friends who are stuck with having to buy Chinese motorcycles, typically around $600 new, and which after a year typically cost hundreds in repairs each year. However if they can come up with $2000 they can get a Honda which lasts 10 years or more with routine maintenance. This isn't being racist - it's being experienced :) .


And you don't think if Honda made a bike for $600 it would have a lot lower quality?


You cannot have it both ways regarding low prices and low quality. :hello: 


Anyway - if everyone is so scared of (PRC) Chinese goods - then I wouldn't advise flying again, considering the major manufacturers (Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer) all have parts made in China, some are even moving assembly lines to China.

The pre-concieved notion that the (PRC) Chinese cannot build high quality goods is past its sell by date. You don't send people into space with shoddy engineering.
November 20, 2008 7:36:56 PM

the pre-concieved notion that the (PRC) Chinese cannot build high quality goods is past its sell by date. You don't send people into space with shoddy engineering.

No one said they could'nt build high quality goods, its just that they dont

I didn't (and still don't) like the comment "by Chinese" - racial undertones to me.

That sounds like a personal problem to me, see a shrink!

Anyway - if everyone is so scared of (PRC) Chinese goods - then I wouldn't advise flying again, considering the major manufacturers (Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer) all have parts made in China, some are even moving assembly lines to China.

There have been many, many instances of poor quality Chinese goods being recalled, their dog food killed a lot of pets. I wouldnt be surprised in the least to hear of a airliner crashing due to defective Chinese parts. Ooh, sorry that didnt offend you did it? :lol: 

November 20, 2008 7:50:56 PM

Questioning a countries abilities for their lack of quality is one thing, but questioning it for their lack of quality when the lack has been previously known, and that countries simple lack of racial disparity isnt fair. If China had more differing races, this comment wouldnt hold water. And not have more races isnt a racist comment either, it just happens to be the case
November 20, 2008 7:53:12 PM

Itd be like if someone questioned Swedens abilities to make something theyve been know to make, but make poorly, I would say thats racist, since Sweden is mainly Caucasian
a b à CPUs
November 20, 2008 8:15:14 PM

jimmysmitty said:


As for the auto makers, I understand what you are saying yips but there is a lot more to it than that. Like the fact that Honda makes quite a nice profit for every car they sell. I have found that its pretty cheap for them to build and import their cars, hence why they have yet to open a plant here, and the sell price gives them nice profits.

What I find funny is how people talk about jobs here in the US, supporting the economy and instead of buying a American car that supports the workers here they buy a German or Japanese car that supports them instead.

Plus the unions kill the US automakers.



While I agree with the sentiment of your post, I hate to break the news, but Honda have been building cars in the United States for the last 25 years...

East Liberty Auto Plant, East Liberty, Ohio, USA - Honda Civic, Honda Civic (GX NGV), Honda CR-V (from September 2006), Honda Element. Opened in 1989

Honda Manufacturing of Alabama, Lincoln, Alabama - Honda Odyssey, Honda Pilot, Honda J engine Opened in 2001

Marysville Auto Plant, Marysville, Ohio, USA - Honda Accord, Acura TL, Acura RDX - Opened in 1979

They're up to a SEVENTH plant (Greensburg IN), actually.

http://corporate.honda.com/america/facilities.aspx

http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2008/01/10/074777.ht...


And in today's news, Honda are *HIRING*
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=6281315&page=1




Regarding the US Auto industry: Those Tw4ts need to learn to build a car that lasts longer than the Finance terms it took to pay for the thing. The Ford I owned didn't make it to 70K miles, and was trouble almost from day 1. My Acura TL (Built in MARYLAND, Thank You Very Much!) is closing on twice the mileage with nothing more than fluids, 1 battery, and tires.
November 20, 2008 8:25:22 PM

The Ford thing was done intentionally. When the US bailed out Chrysler, they came out with the low friction/high combustion engines. At the time, I knew several inside Ford guys, I asked them why it took over 2 years for Ford to catch up, they told me because it wasnt needed for competition til then. The US automakers can compete, but theyve let slip so much its not funny. Maybe now is the time for them to get it together. Theyve all been living on planned obsolessence for so long, at our expense. Theyll have to totally retructure how they do their business
November 20, 2008 10:18:23 PM

yipsl said:
Intel owns X86. AMD owns X86-64. Why would they license their technology to a competitor who could outmanufacture them? Until a new standard replaces X86 on the desktop, we won't see more competitors unless AMD and Intel allow the competition.

This isn't like graphics. A Chinese designed GPU might go over well if the price is right, but desktop and server CPU's? Not any time soon.



The Big Three need to innovate and change their ways. I'm moderately pro union, but the contracts need to be more realistic too. I don't want to see the 25 billion electric car fund raided for the automakers, it should come out of the 700 billion package that's bailing out the financial industry, but the administration won't go for it, and by the time Democrats are in control of both branches, it might be too late for millions.

Billions for the financial industry that brought everyone down with them by packaging subprime mortgages as securities, but nothing for the outdated auto industry?

We need a total overhaul of our infrastructure in America, and perhaps the laid off autoworkers can be hired for a sort of WPA to rebuild bridges, roads, schools and public buildings? Until we have innovative hybrid and inner city electrics coming from the Big Three instead of gas guzzling SUV's, we won't see much future employment in that sector.

I want the auto bailout to save American jobs, and I voted for McCain. I'm just tired of the way the financial sector gets everything but any other American industry is told to sink or swim by the Bush administration.



I won't be spending much. Definitely not on credit. Our presents to ourselves were 3 PC builds this fall, and our present to our nieces and nephew was a PC build too. Now that the economy's tanking, I can't see spending anything else on major purchases until fall 2009.

Though I think my job's secure, I could end up with an unhappy surprise. This is the worst time since the Great Depression and we can't expect China to bail us out. Their factory workers are blaming America when they get laid off, as if not buying their products is a crime.

Read this commentary from my local town's newspaper, we shop in thrift stores for retro hippie clothes and 60's and 70's era housewares, but many people are so poor they even buy appliances there. Americans just buy too much and discard too much. Freeman has it right, we shouldn't be the donkeys keeping the world's economy truckin' along:

http://www.statesman.com/opinion/content/editorial/stor...


Very sad story, and doesnt take much effort to believe. But the sadesst thing of all is that we have been warned time and time again about the 4rth level of economics and its pitfalls, the same as we have been warned about how we treat our environment and what the effects will be. It amazes me that people become so involved in the 'now; that they dont consider the consequenses of their actions.

In terms of consequences, there is ostensibly a positve consequance to consumerism fueling a global economy....the end of war. At least in theory as presented by those who support global consumerism, but frankly, there are so many holes in that theory that its far to scary.

Regardless, I agree with the author, a break in consumerism would be nice. Painful at first, to be sure, but IMO healthy in the long run. Well, potentially healthy.
November 20, 2008 10:32:24 PM

Well, it wasnt like this before. If someone wore a T shirt with writing on it, it was to be thought of as cheap, back in the day. Thats no longer the case. Mwen didnt color their hair, werent known as metro sevuals, didnt wear advertising on their clothes etc. All these things have happened rather recently, in a larger perspective. I think it generally has a larger effect overall. My parents were either young (my dad) or just being born (my mother) during the great depression. I was taught what it meant to go without by their stories, and their conservatism regarding things, as in stuff , you know that you buy.
I think the children of this generation went overboard and allowed all this to come to fruition, and not ever wanting to happen with what happened to their parents gen. Everything has its limits, and weve outdone ours. Theres middle ground, more common sense out there, but yes, itll have to be adopted, or worse, required. I prefer the adoption route mtself
November 20, 2008 11:06:44 PM

Amiga500 said:
I didn't (and still don't) like the comment "by Chinese" - racial undertones to me.


Bear in mind that we're not making statements like "Chinese makes inferior products because they're lazy", or "Chinese simply don't know how to make high quality products". Chinese do have a history of making poor quality products due to severe cost savings. This is a criticism directed at the way they do business, not themselves.

[quote said:

Yet you stated "not much point having a good CPU if there's no display". I'm just simply pointing out the logical fallacy in your argument.

Perhaps, perhaps...

But outside of using a text interface, you aren't going to do an awful lot that would need a good CPU without a good GPU...


Open office will happily run on a pentium 2... I'm sure it will run on even older systems just fine.]
Quote:

Yet you stated "not much point having a good CPU if there's no display". I'm just simply pointing out the logical fallacy in your argument.


Perhaps, perhaps...

But outside of using a text interface, you aren't going to do an awful lot that would need a good CPU without a good GPU...


Open office will happily run on a pentium 2... I'm sure it will run on even older systems just fine.
[/quote]

Yet for most people, IGP is good enough. The last time I checked, Intel's IGP still has more than 50% of the market. What does that signify?
November 20, 2008 11:08:48 PM

JAYDEEJOHN said:
I live in California, and here, we have miles and miles of orange groves. The weather here is stable, and theres plenty of changeover room for corn, as oranges arent the most needed of crops



Jay, theres a huge difference between corn and oranges. Corn is a seasonal crop, with numerous different varieties that can be grown during different times of the year. You plant a kernal at the beginning of the season, at the end of the season you have a stalk with several ears of corn. Oranges are seasonal in that every season you get oranges, but unlike corn, you dont plant an orange seed and have oranges X-months later that same year. Orange groves are an investment. It takes years for an orange tree to grow and become a stable fruit producer, unless you want to try the pygmy breeds or try the grafting game, which is not easy. Citrus trees are also far more tempermental than corn when it comes to climate and environmental changes. They like to be in one place that has the right climate and they like to stay there forever

One of the greatest impacts on recent corn prices has been alternative fuels developement.....which itself was driven by high oil prices.....which, in case you havent been paying attention, have crashed. Crude contracts closed below $50/BBl today, and the downward trend is going to continue. Befor the end of this year, Crude will probably cost 1/3 of its July $147 high. With spiralling demand for fuel driving crude prices down, what do you think is going to happen to the price of corn? With the economy crapping, and cheap gas, how much imore nvestment in alternative fuels do you think there is going to be?


In addition, Brazil, one of the major growers outside the US has been hit hard by citrus diseases, including citrus greening disease. So what do you think Jay: Pull out the chain saw and hack down the Orange grove that tooks years of investment to start tuning a profit so you can plant a crop thats losing its value, or hold on to the investment?

I dont think any of your grove owners are going convert their investments to plant a crop thats loosing its value AND can prosper in a far greater range of environments. Now, if Walmart comes along and wants to buy the property to throw up a new store, well, thats a different story.
November 20, 2008 11:21:48 PM

But thats why they grow corn twice a year here. They get 2 crops as opposed to 1. All Im saying is, theres alternatives out there, and corn IS one of them. Sugar beats beatds em all to shame anyways, and those could be rolled over several times here
November 20, 2008 11:26:03 PM

Besides, you have the deisel alternative. All these things will be looked at. Current pricing isnt the end all be all of oil. Thats why we need this eventually anyways. Hopefully theres better alternatives found. I was just saying it could be done without the impact, as cows and people dont subsist on oranges, unlike corn
November 21, 2008 1:23:01 AM

JAYDEEJOHN said:
While the market is important, it shouldnt be the only focal point. Its a shame AMD and others are doing so poorly in the market, but doesnt it take awhile to be delisted? I mean, if it goes under 1$, I thought there was a sort of grace period before delisting?


The market is not a focal point, it is an indicator. A gauge, very much like a tachometer in a car.

Market displaying a consistend trend of decline = economy slowing.

Stock values including both AMDs and Intels are falling. In the case of any company, it does not not decrease the value of their assets. The companies still have physical value. Stock falling is an indication that there is a perception of reduced corporate profitablity. Whether that perception is driven by the global economy or by the individual companies performance is irrelevant to the actual stock value. It falls in either case as the perception remains the same. The stocks value is decreased because the company is not profitable or not as profitable.

What it is that any company produces? Its not cars, CPUs, oranges corn or any real product. What any company (excepting not for profit organizations) produces is revenue. If either the company or the economy is not healthy, the company will produce revenue at reduced rate, or may produce no revenue at all. Reduced revenue = reduced percieved value = reduction in share price. A company like AMD, that has been operating in the red for some time can get by on the perception of potential future profitability. Take the perception of future profitability away, and add it to negative net revenue in the present and what happens to stock value?

Remember what common stock is. It is a certifcate of ownership. You give someone your money, and they give you a piece of paper assigning you some tiny fraction of ownership of the company in question, and certain rights that go along with ownership. One of those rights is management. Like a democracy, your share gives you the right to vote on who manages the company and on actions taken by the company. The more shares you own, the more wieght your vote carries. Buy enough to own greater than 50% of all pertinant shares, common prefered or otherwise, and you have the controling interest. Your vote becomes powerful enough to be the only one that matters. Having power of, or owning the majority of a company that loses money is not an attractive position to be in, except in one case. That is the case where you achieve ownership at a cost less than the real net value of the companies assets, be they intellectual or physical. Looking at Intel, the value of their oustanding stock shares, which has halved in the past 3 months, is now $68 Billion. Pulling a value of $3Billion per fab right out of my behind, for 12 fabs Intel has a physical manufacturing asset value of $36billion. I made a guess at that, but Im not going to guess at their IP value. I may very well be wrong, but I doubt the value of the Intel corporation as an object exceeds their market cap as their P/E ratio is just under 10. Meaning the $34.1 billion to buy the controlling interest in Intel would not yield much of a profit if one was to part the company out.


Now look at AMD. The value of their outstanding shares is 1.1Billion. If the real value of their 2 fabs plus spansion and IP adds up to $8 billion, thats a pretty attractive investment for a hostile buyer. Even if they could only sell the assets off for 1/4 of their value, they would still make a $1Billion for doing little more than talking over a phone and signing some documents.

And this is why people worry about AMD Jay. What you and the fanboys dont get is that its not about how "smooth" K10, or shanghai, or any other product is. You focus so much on the object that you dont see the corporation. Its not about how cool their chip is with the tiny little money limited enthusiast crowd, Its about how many chips the rich investors beleive AMD could sell. AMD is semi-ripe for for a hostile take over, and every day the stock drops, they become more so. Not for the priveledge of owning a CPU manufacturer, but simply because at this moment, they are worth far more in pieces than as a whole. Now there are 3 very important things that make AMD unattractive for a takeover right now. The stipulations of their x86 licensing agreement with Intel, the estimated reduction in demand for any semicondcutor chip and guess what Im going to say next.....cmon, guess. I'll give you a hint. Its worth $2.2Billion.

Did you guess?

Spoiler
Those nasty senior notes. Guess what. Anyone who was to buy the controlling interest of AMD assumes responsibility for that $2.2billion of debt.






That means if tommorow morning soemone were to spend $600 million to buy the controlling interest in AMD for the purpose of parting it out, they would have to be able to make a minimum of $2.8 Billion just to break even. Not so attractive when you consider those nasty senior notes you overly optimistic guys like to discount, but right now they are one of the things protecting AMD. If the stock value continues to fall, the prospect of a hostile take over will become more attractive, but no matter how far the stock falls, until 2012, their will still be a $2.2 billion pit to climb out of. Its a wonderful little diachotomy. Those senior notes both hurt AMD and protect it at the same time. Now, if someone thinks they can get $4 or $5 billion for AMD....well maybe they can and in that case its game on.

Think about that Jay. Now think about this. Right now, for only 10% of only one quarters gross revenue, Intel could buy the controling interest in AMD, shut them down, pay off AMDs debts and part out the company at fire sale prices. And Intel would still show a quartely profit. And the only thing preventing that are the anti monopoly laws. But that doesnt prevent any other company or interest from doing just that. And this is only one of almost 4000 companies listed on the exchange as of Dec 2007. 1 year ago those companies represented a total capex of over 30 Trillion dollars. The dow is down by over compared to todays trading. There are a lot of other companies under the same threat as AMD right now.


Its a cascade effect Jay. One company goes out of business, then another and another. Those companies former employees now make no $$. Which means they can spend no $$. Which means other companies dont sell their products, which means they eventually go out of business, and so on and so on and so on. Yes Jay, I know, you beleive the govenment can just print all the money it wants, and pay off all those companies so they can stay in business. But that comes at a cost too. I know you dont beleive that, so Im not going to waste my time trying to explain it to you.


But I will say this Jay, the percieved value of the majority of companies on the exchange has dropped by over 1/3 in the past 6 months. 1/3rd Jay. The 'tachometer' was reading 6000 RPM. It now reads 4000 RPM, and is declining. Declining rpm = motor dying. Motor dying bad Jay, very bad. Stock prices falling = economy dying. That doesnt mean it cant be saved, but printing more money isnt going to save it.
November 21, 2008 1:29:01 AM

jaydeejohn, why don't we just drill for oil, mine oil shale, use our coal and build more nuclear plants, in order to give us time to further develop the alternatives?

The amount of ethanol produced from corn is a drop in the bucket, and is causing food prices to go up and creating world food shortages.

How complicated its this?

Am I the only one who sees this?

Nah, can't be.
November 21, 2008 1:36:54 AM

JAYDEEJOHN said:
But thats why they grow corn twice a year here. They get 2 crops as opposed to 1. All Im saying is, theres alternatives out there, and corn IS one of them. Sugar beats beatds em all to shame anyways, and those could be rolled over several times here



Uh, yeh Jay. Suger is falling the same as other commodities, though not at quite the same rate:



Jay, what your thinking of is short term. Lets say all the orange growers but one read your post, said, Damn!!! Thats a great idea! They then proceed to cut their groves down to grow corn and sugar. What happens to the supply of oranges? It shrinks, which in turn does what to the relative demand? It drives it up. Now, that one grower who didnt cut down his grove can charge what he wants and make a mint. Meanwhile, all those folks growing suger and corn are now adding their stock to the compete for the existing demand, which does what? Drives prices down. Lets say they then decide to switch back to oranges which are now in high demand. They cant. Because now they have to spend years growing the trees before those trees bear any fruit.

I dont know if youve ever flown of the middle of the country Jay, but its mind blowing. Thousands and thousands of square miles dedicated to the production of food. If youre on a smaller plane, an RJ, you spend a couple of hours flying over nothing but farms. It is honestly one of the most amazing things Ive ever seen, and Ive travelled around the globe a fair bit. They can (and do) grow corn on those farms. They cant grow citrus. Not without investing a ton of money on green houses to protect the trees in the winter months.

Citrus is a long term investment. Corn and sugar arent. Growers could do what you propose, but in the long term, I doubt it would pay off for them.
November 21, 2008 1:41:57 AM

Agreed, shale oil etc, more nuke plants as well.

The licensing of AMD and their partnership helps prevent an agressive takeover, and alot of people/companies would come inbetween something like that ever happening.

I disagree with your assessment the market is an idicator, or as much of one as you think it is. Its run on speculation, and its been that specualtion thats brought this whole thing on. Like I said in another thread, the moneies just dont disappear, the land, the houses etc. Thats real, the market is speculation as to its worth, and nothing more.

Lets see what happens after Denebs release, my bet is, the speculated worth of AMD will go waaay up
!