Very bad news for everyones own personal "precious"

[turpit]

I dont care who you are a fantard for, when SIA speaks, people listen. We all know all your various preciouses are taking it in the shorts right now, but if SIAs outlook is correct, not only is the end not in sight, but there is a lot of digging yet to be done throughout the entire industry, and it will continue long enough to impact next years overall sales totals. While they are focusing on semiconductor chips, the potential cascade is blatentley apparent, with everyone down to the fan manufacturers positioned to take big hits.


SIA Forecast Doesn't Bode Well For Chip Companies

The outlook for semiconductors is so negative that an industry group said Wednesday it expects global chip sales to decline in 2009 -- something not seen in eight years.

The Semiconductor Industry Association estimates that chip sales around the world will fall next year to $246.7 billion, down 5.6% from this year's anticipated sales of $261.2 billion. Sales this year will be up about 2.2% from 2007

Understand what they are predicting.....the market will shrink....not expand at a reduced rate, but actually shrink. Further, according to SIA, unlike the last time the market shank in 2001, this time it wont be "excessivly large inventories" but due to shear reductiion in consumption.

Baaaaaaaaaaad.

 

[piesquared]

I think the only hope is with China and India to be honest. Those are massive markets, and while not growing as fast as they were, they are probably the only markets that are still growing, if only slightly.

 

[turpit]

I think the only hope is with China and India to be honest. Those are massive markets, and while not growing as fast as they were, they are probably the only markets that are still growing, if only slightly.

Could be, but they are getting hit too, and how hard remains to be seen.

Crude prices continue to fall, and even with an optimistic (unofficial) report on increased mogas consumption last week, the latest official crude stock reports indicate the opposite with surplusses even larger than forecast. People are continuing to cutback on their consumption accross the board.

We will see a big indicator next week on "Black Friday" If consumers take their gas savings and spend more than projected on christmas presents, many will see it as a positve sign, not to mention the sales will directly help China. If sales undercut projections, not only will it be another negative indicator, but it will have a direct impact on China, if not financially then perceptually.

Sad to think so much could, potnetially, be riding on the outcome of one shopping day.

 

[piesquared]

Yep, there's ALOT hanging in the proverbial balance. I agree, this is big.

 

[Homeboy2]

This is nothing compared to the coming collapse of the American auto industry.

 

[V3NOM]

Let's just wait until china starts getting big into the semiconducor industry. good bye intel and AMD, goodbye fanbois :lol:

mark my words.

 

[yipsl]

Let's just wait until china starts getting big into the semiconducor industry. good bye intel and AMD, goodbye fanbois :lol:

mark my words.

Intel owns X86. AMD owns X86-64. Why would they license their technology to a competitor who could outmanufacture them? Until a new standard replaces X86 on the desktop, we won't see more competitors unless AMD and Intel allow the competition.

This isn't like graphics. A Chinese designed GPU might go over well if the price is right, but desktop and server CPU's? Not any time soon.

This is nothing compared to the coming collapse of the American auto industry.

The Big Three need to innovate and change their ways. I'm moderately pro union, but the contracts need to be more realistic too. I don't want to see the 25 billion electric car fund raided for the automakers, it should come out of the 700 billion package that's bailing out the financial industry, but the administration won't go for it, and by the time Democrats are in control of both branches, it might be too late for millions.

Billions for the financial industry that brought everyone down with them by packaging subprime mortgages as securities, but nothing for the outdated auto industry?

We need a total overhaul of our infrastructure in America, and perhaps the laid off autoworkers can be hired for a sort of WPA to rebuild bridges, roads, schools and public buildings? Until we have innovative hybrid and inner city electrics coming from the Big Three instead of gas guzzling SUV's, we won't see much future employment in that sector.

I want the auto bailout to save American jobs, and I voted for McCain. I'm just tired of the way the financial sector gets everything but any other American industry is told to sink or swim by the Bush administration.

We will see a big indicator next week on "Black Friday" If consumers take their gas savings and spend more than projected on christmas presents, many will see it as a positve sign, not to mention the sales will directly help China. If sales undercut projections, not only will it be another negative indicator, but it will have a direct impact on China, if not financially then perceptually.

Sad to think so much could, potnetially, be riding on the outcome of one shopping day.

I won't be spending much. Definitely not on credit. Our presents to ourselves were 3 PC builds this fall, and our present to our nieces and nephew was a PC build too. Now that the economy's tanking, I can't see spending anything else on major purchases until fall 2009.

Though I think my job's secure, I could end up with an unhappy surprise. This is the worst time since the Great Depression and we can't expect China to bail us out. Their factory workers are blaming America when they get laid off, as if not buying their products is a crime.

Read this commentary from my local town's newspaper, we shop in thrift stores for retro hippie clothes and 60's and 70's era housewares, but many people are so poor they even buy appliances there. Americans just buy too much and discard too much. Freeman has it right, we shouldn't be the donkeys keeping the world's economy truckin' along:

http://www.statesman.com/opinion/content/editorial/stories/11/14/1114freeman_edit.html

 

[Mathos]

I just think it's more Ironic that the entire time Bush was in office, oil prices have skyrocketed. But since Obama got elected as president, suddenly gas prices are on the way down to where they were prebush.

But in the end, we're all gonna end up having to take a bite out of the massive **** sandwich that's been served up by the last 8 years.

 

[jimmysmitty]

Let's just wait until china starts getting big into the semiconducor industry. good bye intel and AMD, goodbye fanbois :lol:

mark my words.

Cold day in hell when my CPUs are made in China by Chinese. No offense but they are the proverbial suck when it comes to quality. I try not to buy Chinese made goods, as hard as it is, because I know its quality will be worse.

Either way they have a lot mroe to do then just copy. They have to design something new thats better than what we have that will easily move people over to it. If its to hard to move people to it, it wont happen.

I just think it's more Ironic that the entire time Bush was in office, oil prices have skyrocketed. But since Obama got elected as president, suddenly gas prices are on the way down to where they were prebush.

But in the end, we're all gonna end up having to take a bite out of the massive **** sandwich that's been served up by the last 8 years.

Actually oil prices have been falling for quite a while. In fact they started to fall at about the same time this whole economic problem hit the fan.

Gas prices being high were not due to high oil prices either. Its the lack of refineries being able to pump out the needed oil. They droped a lot in the past month or so. Its $1.99 where I am and is said to be going down to even $1.50. Not too bad compared to $4.

As for the auto makers, I understand what you are saying yips but there is a lot more to it than that. Like the fact that Honda makes quite a nice profit for every car they sell. I have found that its pretty cheap for them to build and import their cars, hence why they have yet to open a plant here, and the sell price gives them nice profits.

What I find funny is how people talk about jobs here in the US, supporting the economy and instead of buying a American car that supports the workers here they buy a German or Japanese car that supports them instead.

Plus the unions kill the US automakers.

In my opinion they are not as bad as ppl say. I get better gas mileage on my Ford Contour than most equivalent Japanese cars (with a 2.5 V6) do. And its been good to me for 50K miles with no problems. My family has only owned American cars, minus my Aunt who only likes Japanese (shes the weird one), and we have had very few problems with them to date. And thats spanning from my grandfather on.

I hope the US auto dosen't go down. That would be a sad day really. Of course what will happen if it gets that bad is the other foreign car companies will buy them out. But the sad thing is that Ford at least has really been pushing a lot of new stufff. They have a hydrogen and fuel cell Focus set to be brought out, have one of the best Flex fuel engines that can have both gas and ethonol in it at the same time and still make kick ass trucks.

Man all this bad news is depressing really. I want some good news for a change.

 

[Outlander_04]

I won't be spending much. Definitely not on credit.

Bad move . Spend or the global economy contracts further , recession deepens and more jobs are lost .

Im getting a new computer as my contribution

 

[Zorg]

jimmysmitty, +1 for the most part. Some of the above posts make me want to scream. It's amazing how misinformed some people are.

 

[V3NOM]

Actually i read somewhere about licensing for x86 cpus in china... they made a 1 or 2GHz cpu or something..

 

[Homeboy2]

I wont buy an American car, because im not paying for high union wages and benefits. The bailout is really a union bailout and will fail unless employee compensation is reduced. They talk about limiting executive pay but it is nothing compared to employee costs.
The reason Detroit didnt build small gas efficient cars is because they couldnt make a profit on those, plus the fact nobody wanted them! The SUV and large cars were what most people wanted.

 

[blackwidow_rsa]

wasnt that the cpus that emulate x86 with like a 20% performance hit?

 

[Amiga500]

Cold day in hell when my CPUs are made in China by Chinese. No offense but they are the proverbial suck when it comes to quality. I try not to buy Chinese made goods, as hard as it is, because I know its quality will be worse.

Do you have an ATI or Nvidia GPU?



Did you know Taiwan is actually known as the Republic of China?


Thought not.

 

[Guest]

Cold day in hell when my CPUs are made in China by Chinese. No offense but they are the proverbial suck when it comes to quality. I try not to buy Chinese made goods, as hard as it is, because I know its quality will be worse.

Either way they have a lot mroe to do then just copy. They have to design something new thats better than what we have that will easily move people over to it. If its to hard to move people to it, it wont happen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loongson

 

[jimmysmitty]

Do you have an ATI or Nvidia GPU?



Did you know Taiwan is actually known as the Republic of China?


Thought not.

No freaking way.... I so did not know that..... Wow. Thanks.

Or I know that but what does my GPU have to do with my CPU? I prefer the chips to be fabed here then put together where ever. As long as the actual fabing process takes place here in the US where they can give people jobs running the fabs I am fine.

Cold day in hell when my CPUs are made in China by Chinese. No offense but they are the proverbial suck when it comes to quality. I try not to buy Chinese made goods, as hard as it is, because I know its quality will be worse.

Either way they have a lot mroe to do then just copy. They have to design something new thats better than what we have that will easily move people over to it. If its to hard to move people to it, it wont happen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loongson

Yea..... thats a in house chip for Chinese people since they are sick of getting 1-2 gen behind CPUs because they cannot import current gen chips.

It only emulates x86 so it is about 20% slower on our basic apps and games and such. Wont come out here.

Even if it does hit the US market I would still buy AMD/Intel and support the companies that are gving US jobs instead.

 

[Amiga500]

No freaking way.... I so did not know that..... Wow. Thanks.

Or I know that but what does my GPU have to do with my CPU? I prefer the chips to be fabed here then put together where ever. As long as the actual fabing process takes place here in the US where they can give people jobs running the fabs I am fine.

I'm going on the assumption your yet another ill-informed xenophobe from your little rant earlier.



So when was the last time you broke a GPU? Considering TSMC makes both ATI and Nvidia GPUs...

Not much point having a good 'ol US of A CPU if you cannot actually display the processed data is there?



The Chinese make decent stuff, sure, they are still behind in a lot of areas, but they are rapidly pulling up, and will soon be racing ahead.

Compare the number of graduates in real (read: useful) subjects in China to the US or anywhere else in the western world.

In terms of useful degrees, or useful degrees per head, we (all western countries) are getting destroyed by the Chinese.

 

[Homeboy2]

arent most of intel and amd fabs in foreign countries anyway?

 

[gamerk316]

Actually oil prices have been falling for quite a while. In fact they started to fall at about the same time this whole economic problem hit the fan.

Gas prices being high were not due to high oil prices either. Its the lack of refineries being able to pump out the needed oil. They droped a lot in the past month or so. Its $1.99 where I am and is said to be going down to even $1.50. Not too bad compared to $4.

As for the auto makers, I understand what you are saying yips but there is a lot more to it than that. Like the fact that Honda makes quite a nice profit for every car they sell. I have found that its pretty cheap for them to build and import their cars, hence why they have yet to open a plant here, and the sell price gives them nice profits.

What I find funny is how people talk about jobs here in the US, supporting the economy and instead of buying a American car that supports the workers here they buy a German or Japanese car that supports them instead.

Plus the unions kill the US automakers.

In my opinion they are not as bad as ppl say. I get better gas mileage on my Ford Contour than most equivalent Japanese cars (with a 2.5 V6) do. And its been good to me for 50K miles with no problems. My family has only owned American cars, minus my Aunt who only likes Japanese (shes the weird one), and we have had very few problems with them to date. And thats spanning from my grandfather on.

I hope the US auto dosen't go down. That would be a sad day really. Of course what will happen if it gets that bad is the other foreign car companies will buy them out. But the sad thing is that Ford at least has really been pushing a lot of new stufff. They have a hydrogen and fuel cell Focus set to be brought out, have one of the best Flex fuel engines that can have both gas and ethonol in it at the same time and still make kick ass trucks.

Man all this bad news is depressing really. I want some good news for a change.

First off, Ethonol is a REALLY bad idea. First off, more than any other crop, corn is the least resistent to weather. Secondly, corn is typically one of the foods used to feed produce. As less of this corn is avaliable, the price of produce starts to rise (as it did this summer after the floods in the midwest). You save on gas, but loose on food. And if you have another year of heavy flooding?

Secondly, theres a reason why only 15% of all GM vehicles on the road are over 5 years old, compared to 70% for Toyota. Ever american car I've owned dies before it hits 100k miles. My 94 Camry, which I brought used at 85k miles, is all the way up to 235k, and only had one or two minor issues along the way, and get 25 MPG to boot. Total cost: $7,500.

As for oil prices, they were largely driven up by speculators. I would know, I was one of them. Everyone knew the price of oil was over-inflated, and most everyone started to bail when it hit $140. Now, the price is too low, mainly because of the economic issues. The real price is in the neigborhood of $75-80.

I still find it funny: gas prices drop and Ford re-opens its F-150 plant. People are going to get a rude awakening when prices jump next, although NOT bailing out GM would destroy the economy anyway, so the points moot...

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Well, anyone that knows whats going on knows every 7-8 years we go thru a slowdow, or even recession. So no big surprise here, its just that its coupled with the energy costs and the housing bubble, which makes the impact greater

As far as chips goes, you may include cpus,NB,SB for mobos, and mobos themselves, but so far, the gpus have been selling like hot cakes. In times of slowdowns, many people aften take to movies for cheap entertainment, but thats changed, and todays games are where its at.

So, if you want to see growth in the HW aspect of this entire industry, Id keep an eye on the gpu segment

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

I live in California, and here, we have miles and miles of orange groves. The weather here is stable, and theres plenty of changeover room for corn, as oranges arent the most needed of crops

 

[TechnologyCoordinator]

AMD stock is trading in 1$ range. How much longer still we get to penny stock status and de-listing from the NYSE?

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

While the market is important, it shouldnt be the only focal point. Its a shame AMD and others are doing so poorly in the market, but doesnt it take awhile to be delisted? I mean, if it goes under 1$, I thought there was a sort of grace period before delisting?

 

[TechnologyCoordinator]

While the market is important, it shouldnt be the only focal point. Its a shame AMD and others are doing so poorly in the market, but doesnt it take awhile to be delisted? I mean, if it goes under 1$, I thought there was a sort of grace period before delisting?

30 days of a price below $1.00, then they get a letter telling them they have 90 days to fix it.