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How far away are we from the HD5850 and 5870?

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October 14, 2008 1:44:15 AM

How far away do you think ATI is from releasing the HD5850 and 5870 cards?

December / January?

Has anyone heard any 'little dragon' updates?

I was thinking about getting a 4850 or 70 but if we are only about a month or two away from a card that is 20% faster while being cooler and more energy efficient then it would be worth waiting for.

More about : hd5850 5870

October 14, 2008 1:49:48 AM

I was actually thinking June/July....there going to milk these cards until everybody has one
October 14, 2008 2:00:41 AM

Well I know that ATI sat on the 29XX and 38XX series cards but I thought their new strategy was a new card every 6 months.

The 4850 came out on June 25th.

I was thinking maybe January or February the 58XX series cards might be available.

Nvidia has plans for new cards at the start of the year. I am sure ATI would have to release something to counter it in order to hold marketshare.
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October 14, 2008 2:22:20 AM

I don't care there aren't any games in the foreseeable future that would even tax the 4000 series...

even at high resolution... I have a 4870... not the X2... and can literally play every game at max at 1920 by 1200... except crysis but i can play that all high at near 40 fps all the time

only game that is currently taxing... is Stalker Clear Sky... but thats just really bad programming... i mean it looks like sh*t and runs worse than crysis....
October 14, 2008 2:23:59 AM

yehhh and i was stupid enough to buy a 3870 early in may when i could have waited for the 4850>: (
thats when i learned to read from Tom's to stay up to date on the tech world:p 
October 14, 2008 2:38:50 AM

Why worry about the 5xxx? First, as already mentioned, the 4870 runs everything just fine. What do you need the 5870 to run, except two poorly coded games? Second, I don't see anything major coming from AMD. They have the lead, Nvidia is the one that needs to release something big. AMD can "take this round off" and just release a die shrink and minor tweak of the 4870 and still stay good.

I don't think they will release new cards every 6 months. The 4800s are selling well, they don't really need any new cards.
October 14, 2008 2:47:00 AM

I hope it happens in March 2009. That's when TSMC said they'd have the 40nm process. That would allow the new cards to be better than rushing them out faster using 55nm.
October 14, 2008 2:48:57 AM

yahhh, im sure AMD will be set for awhile unless NVIDIA drops the price of their 'all powerful' GTX280 to like 300 dollars or release something that we can all afford and still play all the new games. and lately, nvidia has been a little greedy. realeseing 2 cards that are above the 200 dollar price point.
October 14, 2008 12:43:45 PM

AMD will not make the same mistake as they did with their Athlon Processor series and with the Radeon 2000 series.

That said AMD will definitly not push for (much) greater performance heights with it's next series, but rather reducing costs and power consumption (like they did with the transition from the 2000-3000 series).

Let's not forget the Fusion project, which will burn through a LOT of their money.

They probably won;t make another big push until the 6000 series which won't happen till at least the end of 2009. We still however have an exciting year ahead of us
October 14, 2008 1:44:58 PM

aevm said:
I hope it happens in March 2009. That's when TSMC said they'd have the 40nm process. That would allow the new cards to be better than rushing them out faster using 55nm.

You just answered everything for me. The 58XX series will be 40nm and if TSMC does not plan to do it until March then the card will not be out until after March. Thank you for that post.
October 14, 2008 1:47:45 PM

The 4870 is interesting but I am now thinking about TWO 4850s in X-Fire. They cost roughly the same $300.

I got a 700 Watt OCZ power supply and the only reason I bought it was because the week I bought my PC it was on sale and was actually cheaper than the 600 Watt Model. If I got it I might as well use it.
October 14, 2008 1:53:30 PM

Good thinking :)  Make sure your case can cool those two HD 4850 cards though.

I've seen an article today where TSMC says "Q2" for the 40nm now. Sorry, that means April to June, not March. They probably ran into some difficulties. Anyway, if you do get the HD 4850 Crossfire you shouldn't need an upgrade in 2009 IMO.
October 14, 2008 2:02:25 PM

Quote:
I don't care there aren't any games in the foreseeable future that would even tax the 4000 series...

even at high resolution... I have a 4870... not the X2... and can literally play every game at max at 1920 by 1200... except crysis but i can play that all high at near 40 fps all the time

only game that is currently taxing... is Stalker Clear Sky... but thats just really bad programming... i mean it looks like sh*t and runs worse than crysis....
While you are on the subject of games...

This may be hi-jacking my own thread but I got REALLY EXCITED about what I saw on EASPORTS.com last night regarding FIFA Soccer '09. Peter Moore is reviving PC gaming and is bringing back all of the EA SPORTS titles HOWEVER HE IS BRINGING THEM BACK WITH XBOX360/PS3 LEVEL GRAPHICS. They are also promising year over year graphical improvements for the Enthusiast level PC Rigs.

This indicates that games like MADDEN 2010 will be available for the PC with coding for XBOX360 graphics engine.

The cost for this is a onetime online activation to verify you don't have a pirated copy. They are being extremely generous and will allow you to install the game on 5 different PCs.

Here is the news on it.

http://www.fifa09.ea.com/us/news/entryid/26140

The Screenshots for the PC version of FIFA 09 look great! HUGE improvement. By the way...the release date for FIFA 09 is today.
October 14, 2008 6:10:29 PM

I heard Q2 2009. But with "only" 30% performance increase, it's not that exciting. Todays hd4870 will fly thru any game, two of them will own Crysis. Two hd4850s probably will beat a hd5870. Let games catch up before you shell out for an overkill card.
October 14, 2008 6:12:59 PM

I heard 20% but 30% I think is pretty good.

However I ain't waiting until 2nd Quarter 2009.

I am going to go with a 48XX series.

Just have not decided which one or which brand yet.

I think I will likely go with Visiontek or get a 48XX series with one of those ICE4 coolers on it.

I also got to admit those new ASUS Black Knight 4870s look pretty good. They should be available this week or next.
October 14, 2008 6:34:29 PM

You could buy one 4850 now and get another 4850 for xfire when 5870 comes out and your 4850 in xfire will probably still be faster! Then when 6870 comes out, sell both 4850s to a friend on a budget. This will offset some of the cost. It's expensive to be on the bleeding edge :) 
October 14, 2008 6:48:26 PM

A candle lit at bot ends will not last the night, but oh my does it make a lovely light!

:D 
October 14, 2008 8:40:09 PM

So far, I've head roumers on two things, none of which I can prove: A GTX 270 (a 280 die shrink?), and a new GX2 (260 GX2? 280 GX2 (salivates)).

NVIDIA's got something though, so lets see how they react.
October 14, 2008 9:05:39 PM

FrozenGpu said:
A candle lit at bot ends will not last the night, but oh my does it make a lovely light!

:D 


Does thoth candle keep thy warm betwix thine starry nights?
October 15, 2008 2:51:38 AM

gamerk316 said:
So far, I've head roumers on two things, none of which I can prove: A GTX 270 (a 280 die shrink?), and a new GX2 (260 GX2? 280 GX2 (salivates)).

NVIDIA's got something though, so lets see how they react.

i wouldnt start salivating until you see the price tag xD
October 15, 2008 5:17:23 AM

SpinachEater said:
Does thoth candle keep thy warm betwix thine starry nights?


Well you can thank central air I guess for that, but sure why not.
October 15, 2008 7:08:30 AM

A new GX2? First, remember that the GTX is a huge chip. Just getting two of them on a single card without causing the card to get even bigger will be a tough fit. (plus the ram for each chip, unless Nvidia figured out shared ram before AMD.) Second, I remember reading when the 280 came out that some people felt the chip ran so hot, that getting two on one card would be (nearly?) impossible. With the "new" GTX260, perhaps thats what Nvidia will use for the new GX2. Undervolt them enough to get the heat down, down clock them enough to run stable, then throw two on one PCB with a big enough fan. Uses up your old supply of old GTX260's, while still allowing you to use any more new defective chips that come along.

Quote:
wouldnt start salivating until you see the price tag xD


I don't think they'd be able to sell them for much more then the 4870x2. $600, at most. Come to think of it, Nvidia owes an apology and a couple hundred to everyone who bought the GTX280 when they came out. WAY overpriced.
October 15, 2008 6:35:46 PM

Its no wonder why hd4850s and 70s have outsold the GTX280s. Nvidia is losing money on that one due to die size and 512 bit ram. I remember how ATI lost money on the hd2900xt. When will ATI go back to 512 bit ram? Nvidia is ahead there.
October 15, 2008 6:51:48 PM

I don't think Nvidia is ahead there at all.

From what I understand 256bit DDR5 is significantly faster than 512bit DDR3.
October 15, 2008 7:23:30 PM


I think ATI have to release something Q1 early Q2 at the latest. I understand the argument that games dont need the cards yet but i would sooner have hardware with untapped potential than games we have to wait for new cards to play properly. AMD got burned being complacent and sitting on their laurels when their CPU was the chip of choice and Nvidia have been caught napping doing the same thing with their GPU's. I feel sure that these mistakes will not have gone unnoticed and think they would continue to improve the cards, maybe not as fast as they could but i cant see them being in the position of Nvidia releasing something they couldnt counter in some way.
Complete rubish though it is (personal opinion) the green bandwagon rushes full steam ahead and the way ATI are going they are ticking all the right boxes. Better performance for less power. I mean a while ago we were heading for a 1KW PSU being the norm, Now you can run a card that will run rings around most things(4850) with a decent 400 Watt PSU.

Mactronix
October 15, 2008 11:33:12 PM

4745454b said:
A new GX2? First, remember that the GTX is a huge chip. Just getting two of them on a single card without causing the card to get even bigger will be a tough fit. (plus the ram for each chip, unless Nvidia figured out shared ram before AMD.) Second, I remember reading when the 280 came out that some people felt the chip ran so hot, that getting two on one card would be (nearly?) impossible. With the "new" GTX260, perhaps thats what Nvidia will use for the new GX2. Undervolt them enough to get the heat down, down clock them enough to run stable, then throw two on one PCB with a big enough fan. Uses up your old supply of old GTX260's, while still allowing you to use any more new defective chips that come along.

Quote:
wouldnt start salivating until you see the price tag xD


I don't think they'd be able to sell them for much more then the 4870x2. $600, at most. Come to think of it, Nvidia owes an apology and a couple hundred to everyone who bought the GTX280 when they came out. WAY overpriced.

yehh, i agree. and ouch to all the people that paid 600 bucks for a SINGLE GTX280 lol. man, i bet they werent too happy when they fired up crysis to see "blazzing framerates" xDD. im noo fanboy but i must say one thing, NVIDIA IS GREEDY!!! can i hear an amen??
October 16, 2008 5:07:00 PM

What does Crysis *really* need for 1920x1200 maxed out?

GDDR5 ram is expensive, why not use cheaper DDR3 memory and go 512 bit like Nvidia is doing? And if Nvidia uses 512 bit GDDR5, they will crush ATI big time!
October 16, 2008 7:32:09 PM

amen to that brother
October 16, 2008 10:16:18 PM

I read about pin count:

"More Bandwidth Without More Pins
There are three ways to increase memory bandwidth in a system, generally. First, you can increase memory clock rate. This has its drawbacks—some memory types become error-prone beyond certain clock frequencies, and require more power to run at these high speeds. Memories that work at higher frequencies without losing coherency or using more power require substantial changes and new standards, and that's basically what GDDR5 is.

Second, you can increase the bus width. The Radeon HD 2900 (or "R600" chip) used a 512-bit memory interface, and the GeForce 8800 GTX and Ultra (or "G80" chip) used a 384-bit interface. This requires the chip to have a lot of pins for the memory interface, which is undesirable. No matter how small the lithography of your manufacturing process, you can only fit so many physical pins in so little space, so these wide memory busses with their many pins guarantee a large chip. Large chips means fewer per wafer, and higher costs. This isn't so bad if your chip was going to be really big and expensive anyway, but it's murder on those mainstream and budget graphics cards (which is why they all have 256-bit or 128-bit memory interfaces)."

Can't they make the pins smaller? We have had 256 bit ram since the radeon 9700 days. Todays pins should be much smaller!

"What about cost. This stuff is going to cost a fortune, right? Well, yes and no. High-speed GDDR3 and GDDR4 memory is certainly expensive. We're told to expect GDDR5 to initially cost something like 10–20% more than the really high speed GDDR3. Of course, you don't buy memories, you buy a graphics card. Though the memory will cost more, it will be offset somewhat in other places on the product you buy. You don't need as wide a memory interface which means a smaller chip with fewer pins. The board doesn't need to contain as many layers to support wider memory busses, and the trace wire design can be a bit more simple and straightforward, reducing board design costs. As production ramps up, GDDR5 could be as cost effective overall as GDDR3. It will only be appropriate for relatively high-end cards at first, but should be affordable enough for the $80–150 card segment over the next couple years."

What's to stop Nvidia from going 512 bit on GDDR5? And will 1024 bit memory be a reality soon? Can't they use some other interface besides pins? Ive read GDDR5 is similar to quad pumped.

Im also wondering will they ever quit crippling video cards(other than onboard) with 64 bit memory? Low end should be 128 bits, midrange 256 and high end 512!
October 16, 2008 10:26:41 PM

rwayne said:
While you are on the subject of games...

This may be hi-jacking my own thread but I got REALLY EXCITED about what I saw on EASPORTS.com last night regarding FIFA Soccer '09. Peter Moore is reviving PC gaming and is bringing back all of the EA SPORTS titles HOWEVER HE IS BRINGING THEM BACK WITH XBOX360/PS3 LEVEL GRAPHICS. They are also promising year over year graphical improvements for the Enthusiast level PC Rigs.

This indicates that games like MADDEN 2010 will be available for the PC with coding for XBOX360 graphics engine.

The cost for this is a onetime online activation to verify you don't have a pirated copy. They are being extremely generous and will allow you to install the game on 5 different PCs.

Here is the news on it.

http://www.fifa09.ea.com/us/news/entryid/26140

The Screenshots for the PC version of FIFA 09 look great! HUGE improvement. By the way...the release date for FIFA 09 is today.


Oh wow... so merciful is EA... allowing the people who buy the overrated $50 games a grace of 5 activations? Really thank you for your kindness... :sweat: 

Oh and they are making it look as good as the Xbox 360 for the PC? Wow... except that PCs have a lot more horsepower than any console. Anyway, sarcasm aside, it should be kind of good news for those who are dying for sports games on the PC to be back again, I hope they don't mess it up.

Back on topic, if I were you, I might do a little digging for the HD 4850 X2 release date, it should surface any minute now.
October 18, 2008 12:00:23 AM

oh man, i cant wait for the 4850x2.
now ATI will be competeing with the 9800GX2 :D 

sweetness
October 18, 2008 5:26:25 AM

rambo117 said:
oh man, i cant wait for the 4850x2.
now ATI will be competeing with the 9800GX2 :D 

sweetness


Wouldn't call it 'competing' so much as 'slaughtering'
October 18, 2008 5:47:31 AM

mathiasschnell said:
Wouldn't call it 'competing' so much as 'slaughtering'


Haha, slaughter sounds good. But, the GX2 is still a formidable card and I wouldn't be surprised if it was only 10-20% slower than the 4850X2. Plus you've got the fact that GX2's are some of the cheapest, best bang for your buck cards out there right now. I just sold my used one, and barely got 200$ for it, the 4850X2 will prolly retail at what ? 350+$ ?? Anyways, competition is good for everyone.
October 23, 2008 8:52:47 AM

Look...

the 4870X2 is the best card out there nothing beats it! (i wish i had 1!)
i dont think Nivida will be able to beat it for a verry long time...

even so if they do, whats the point in up grading? u can play everything maxed out.
October 23, 2008 11:07:18 AM

We think a cards overkill, but then comes along the next big game and brings the card to it's knees. Progression happens, I know some might not like the fact their cards will not longer be cutting edge anymore, when newer faster cards arrive.

I'm also a believer of buying the best you can afford now and not in X amount of months time. I've used PC's for years and I know waiting is pointless because there will always be something better around the corner.
October 23, 2008 1:20:41 PM

me like overkill, men at work good song
October 24, 2008 3:39:05 AM

Xarbat said:
I think ATI releases two new lines of cards a year: once at the beginning of the year and once in the summer. However, wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_ATI_graphics_processing_units) says that the 3870 came out in Nov. 2007, I could have sworn that it was in 2008.


It was November 2007 for the 3870's i know b/c i picked up one around the same time, and finished that build before December.
October 24, 2008 6:07:08 AM

then I will wait until the end of November before building a new system.
October 24, 2008 6:52:55 AM

Thats the 3870x2 that came later. It wont be til may or so before we see the 5xxx series. 40nm node at TSMC is just finishing up, and we wont see taped out cards til January or so, add 6 months at most, and were really into June, but who knows, it just depends on how everything goes. My bet is that both ATI and nVidia will use thier current arches, tweaked a lil of course, because going to a smaller node, you can run into problems, even with tried and true arch's.

Since both companies want to get thier cards out ASAP, itll then most likely be the older arch, tho like I said, therell probly be alot of changes. Ive heard nVidia may dump a few things from their gpgpu functions , leaving more room for pure graphics power, while ATI may come in with 960 shaders and higher clocks, at 20-30% increase. Thats the latest Ive heard, but remember, this is all speculation, with some common sense thrown in
November 26, 2008 3:14:28 AM

Well something I find not so logical about the rumour of 5870 is when they said "Die shrink + bigger piplines".

One of the reasons that Nvidia's G200 chips have a bigger die size is because of the 384 or 448 bit pipelines. The bigger the pipelines the bigger the die size. It's inevidable.

Now ATI is going to promise 40nm manufacutring which ok.. sorta makes sense but with a 512 bit pipeline and expect the physical die to actually shrink? That's kinda insane if you ask me. Is it even possible to make such a big jump without maintaining the die size or even increasing it (like what nvidia did)?

Sounds kinda fishy to me.
November 26, 2008 4:59:51 AM

I believe TSMC has a slight delay on their 40nm process, probably not before late Q2 2009 at this point.
November 27, 2008 2:15:24 PM

i think it's not worth to wait the 58xx or GT300 if it come in feb-march.why? because when the HD58xx or GT300 come on that time, that's really too late to enter the DX 10 gpu competition.
but if they come on august or later, maybe they will support the DX 11 in windows 11.But, who want to wait until that time and put hopes to such kind of speculation.
i mean, the 4800's and GT200's are good deal on current market, untill we face the new OS, new DirectX and new console technology.
agree?
November 27, 2008 2:22:26 PM

ups, i mean dx 11 in windows 7..
November 28, 2008 7:14:27 AM

speedbird said:
We think a cards overkill, but then comes along the next big game and brings the card to it's knees. Progression happens, I know some might not like the fact their cards will not longer be cutting edge anymore, when newer faster cards arrive.

I'm also a believer of buying the best you can afford now and not in X amount of months time. I've used PC's for years and I know waiting is pointless because there will always be something better around the corner.



When I was running 8800gtx's everyone kept saying that the 8800gtx was good enough to run every game maxed out except crysis, I was wanting MORE power then... People now say the same about 4870's which I run... The games I play most can make the 4870 weep, Even oblivion (with texture replacements and high resolution) is capabale of seriously straining the 4870. Lotro Running in DX10 graphics can bring the 4870 right down to 40 ish fps and force me to turn down the AA. I reckon a single chip solution with about 3x the power of the 4870 is what I want (lotro doesnt play nice with SLI \ x-fire), I dont want micro stutter, game compatibility issues etc etc, I want a single GPU solution with serious power. The 4870's are not it, but they are a good budget upgrade from the old 8800gtx's.

I also dont buy into the theory that crysis is a performance hog purely because of bad coding the way I see it the graphics ARE just that damned good. Its got a lot of "nice" stuff there that just demands extra horsepower to run. It may not be the "best" optimised software out there at lower settings, but I do believe that the graphics justifies the power needed to run it. I think the only place crysis fails is scaling, sure crysis can run well on lowish end hardware but I think they could have put more effort into making the lower end settings look good whilst still perming well. Lotro for instance can also hit performance in a big way on the 4870 if you like everything maxed in dx10 mode, yet lotro manages to look "good" whilst getting 90 fps on a 7600gt if you balance out the settings. All the effort was aimed at high end rigs.
November 28, 2008 7:07:44 PM

The thing is.... Everytime the hardware catches up with the so called "demanding games" more demanding games will come out that require even more horse power. It's the reason why hardware sells so well. We have to keep that in mind.
December 1, 2008 9:13:41 PM

You wont see the 5850 or 5870 untill AMD releases AM3 mobos & cpus
December 2, 2008 2:22:46 AM

Just wait on it, then wait some more all will come in due time.

but seriously once Nvidia decides its time to up the anty ATi will.
July 13, 2009 3:45:01 AM

NewLCD123 said:
You could buy one 4850 now and get another 4850 for xfire when 5870 comes out and your 4850 in xfire will probably still be faster! Then when 6870 comes out, sell both 4850s to a friend on a budget. This will offset some of the cost. It's expensive to be on the bleeding edge :) 



Lol actually an hd 5870 is about the same as a hd 4870x2, u can find out about that, google it... hd 4850x2 is about the same as a hd 4890 also as a gtx 275...ur sayin a hd 4850x2 is probaly as fast as an hd 5870 is like sayin the hd 5870 is like a gtx275 or a hd 4890 lol...
!