Intel's Q4 report out

[fazers_on_stun]

Since there s no specific business area to post this in:

From Intel refrains from Q1 outlook on "uncertainty"

Profit for the fourth quarter ended December 27 fell to $234 million, or 4 cents a share, from $2.27 billion, or 38 cents a share, last year, Intel said. Analysts were expecting a per-share profit of 4 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

Revenue fell to $8.2 billion from $10.7 billion last year.

So it looks like some of the AMD fans predictions of "billions" in losses were considerably off

AMD's quarterly report is due out one week from today, so stay tuned...

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

It is 2.5 biilion in losses compared to same qtr previous year. This isntr good news unless AMD is actually taking up the difference. All it means is the cpu industry is getting hammered. Look for bad numbers from AMD too

 

[fazers_on_stun]

^ No, according to the article it is $2B in lowered profits from a year ago. Huge difference from "losses" which means you actually lose money

I know, it's a hard concept for AMD fans to grasp, this strange idea of a "profit". But trust me, it's a good thing .

And I think we all know AMD didn't take up the difference - that would be an astronomical increase in marketshare, plus AMD would have been shouting it from the rooftops and Thunderpants would have posted a dozen drive-by threads by now.

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that AMD will post at least $500M in losses, maybe even surpass their previous low-water mark of $600M in losses.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

I understand the differences between revenues and profits, but Intel cant go at this pace either, if those revenues continue. And, lets hope that figure isnt that bad for AMD also, as itll put even more of a crunch on the competition, which we need

 

[fazers_on_stun]

I understand the differences between revenues and profits, but Intel cant go at this pace either, if those revenues continue. And, lets hope that figure isnt that bad for AMD also, as itll put even more of a crunch on the competition, which we need

Why couldn't Intel keep making a small profit indefinitely? By definition, they are paying all the bills with a small sum left over. No, they couldn't grow significantly without using another source of revenue, such as the billiions they already have squirreled away from previously more profitable quarters, and R&D would suffer, but they're still making money instead of losing it. I'm sure the shareholders all recognize what a lousy economic climate we're enduring and will not bail out to the extent that AMD shareholders have (which is basically why the price has fallen and remained in the $2 range).

I just don't see much hope for AMD in the near future - they are going to be on the Abu Dhubai IV line indefinitely I would guess. Yes, ATI was a bright spot for them last quarter, but $50M in profit from that one segment doesn't even pay the debt on the purchase. I'd guess a big loss and some new financial dealings with the UAE to be announced, or acquistion talks emerging, or something along those lines.

 

[archibael]

Intel took a one-time loss due to their ownership of lots of Clearwire stock-- $1 Billion. If you neglect this, the profits were at a much healthier $1.2 billion. Still not as great as prior quarters, of course, and it's conceivable that even this would vanish given a long and deep enough recession, but it's less likely.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Does this include all of Intels losses tho? Their investments in other companies, and those subsquent companies have faltered, and thus the losses. This also may make for a total market change down the road, one which Intel isnt immediately ready for, such as low low pricing. R&D will suffer. IBM reported the lead in patents last year, and thats just 1 competitor Intel has, as they try to expand in other areas. Theyre entrenched in many areas, some where they may have to cut n run if this would continue, and make other directions/choices unobtainable at this time. In other words, itll curtail their growth, and thats not how theyre setup. SSDs are currently of little value in this economy, as itll take high volume to lower pricing, and high prices and high volume isnt happening in the HW market.
If this were about AMD, and we had their figures, itd be easier to see whats going on, but Intel is trying to push ahead, and theres rumblings out there about delays etc, meaning skt775's life may have just been extended. What this means is, AMD has easier competition for a longer period, and it may stunt advancement. At this point its all speculation, and no one knows how itll effect both companies down the road, but we all know, it isnt good

 

[roofus]

desktop sales are anticipated to take a hard hit this year. that's bad for everyone. actually all sectors will take a hit but the desktop market is supposed to be a fairly dramatic one. i would go grab the link but i believe it was on slashdot so it wouldnt be hard to find. it was also on yahoo i believe.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Yea, DT is losing to lappys, and net and notebooks all carve into the bigger picture. Someday, there wont even be DTs, maybe just netbooks with hookups to monitors and TVs. Things are changing, thats for sure. Im just worried for both companies in regards to having cutting edge parts. Being huge like Intel is going to present itself with its own monolithic problems, and we already know how AMD is struggling

 

[roofus]

indeed. the articel underscored the damage netbooks are doing to margins on higher end products. problem is, netbook is enough for most people.

 

[enigma067]

It is 2.5 biilion in losses compared to same qtr previous year. This isntr good news unless AMD is actually taking up the difference. All it means is the cpu industry is getting hammered. Look for bad numbers from AMD too

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwcKyrHHQac

http://www.tigerdirect.com/applications/Category/category_cpu.asp?name=CPUs

Ci7 965EE/3.2GHz LGA1366 6.4 GT/s $1079.99

X4 940 / 3.00GHz Socket AM2+ 1800MHz (3600 MT/s) $299.99

$780 difference at TigerDirect

Stay tuned!

 

[ryman554]

indeed. the articel underscored the damage netbooks are doing to margins on higher end products. problem is, netbook is enough for most people.

Really?

1. For the time being, netbooks *aren't* cannibalizing notebook sales. At least according to Paul O.
2. Did you know that the Atom processor actually delivers *greater* margins for intel than many of the more powerful cpus?
3. When we do get to the time where netbooks start cannibalizing sales, which company has the largest beachhead in the market?

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

So, Lynnefields a possibility of being delayed, as is Havnedale. Being as large as Intel is, and sales falling off the map, their invertory must be massive as well, and they arent selling. Like Ive been saying, being smaller also has its advantages, while Intel has to keep alllll those fabs going. Anyways, this sucks

 

[jimmysmitty]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwcKyrHHQac

http://www.tigerdirect.com/applications/Category/category_cpu.asp?name=CPUs

Ci7 965EE/3.2GHz LGA1366 6.4 GT/s $1079.99

X4 940 / 3.00GHz Socket AM2+ 1800MHz (3600 MT/s) $299.99

$780 difference at TigerDirect

Stay tuned!

Core i7 920 $294.99

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16819115202

Q6600 $189.99

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16819115017

Q9550 $ 309.99

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16819115041

In the end all those I listed are better compareable CPUs. But you try using the ultra high end one like AMD does when ppl here know better.

One word: FAIL

As for the profits thing, Jay don't try to make it worse than it is. Intel is making money. They are not losing money. They are not making as much as before but still making a profit is better than losing. I fear AMDs report as I am sure if Intel is hurting they are hurting as well.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Have you read the digi times article? It confirms what Ive been saying all along, and been taking crap about too. Intels current inventories are waaaay too high, and theyre delaying product. Now, since they arent ramping up to the new cpus as quickly, and they certainly arent making tons of old ones, what are they going to do with all those fabs? AMD will have their own problems, and maybe more severe, but this threads about Intel, and theres some serious problems starting here

 

[pausert20]

JD, if you believe Digitimes has an in to what Intel is doing with their fabs and what their inventory levels are I think you are being naive. I do believe they have higher inventory but that is a guess on my part. My friend at Intel says it it not looking good and he did say that Intel gained market share. That means AMD is doing even worse.

AMD is just not getting any breaks. They finally make a profit in Q3. Q4 will be back to bleeding in my opinion and Q1 2009 will be even worse because of the current financial climate and the standard historical lowest sales in the year.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

This is what Im refering to http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090115PD218.html
People need to stop thinking Intel is so proserous and wont be greatly effected by whats going on. All the crap AMD has gotten for its delays , and it caused major harm to AMD, so, Intel may be delaying as well. Like I said, this isnt good. I dont see this as a victory, nor should anyone when AMD struggles either

 

[pausert20]

How does that line up with Paul O. saying that Intel is going to drive to the next processor node as fast as the possibly can?

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Thereve been a few fanboy comments here, mine arent. Take it for what it is.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Whats that have to do with roadmaps? Possibly? Including that word means just doing and going along as normal too. Its a wide open statement.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Theyve posted twice about Intels delays, as well as AMD problems with all DDR3 products
Everythings slowing down, and having all the fabs to keep busy is going to be hard to do
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090114PD221.html
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090113PD203.html

 

[fazers_on_stun]

Theyve posted twice about Intels delays, as well as AMD problems with all DDR3 products
Everythings slowing down, and having all the fabs to keep busy is going to be hard to do
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090114PD221.html
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090113PD203.html

The deal is, Intel already has a DDR3 chipset out and given AMD's problems with the switch, it looks like Intel will have that market all to themselves for a while, sorta like with the netbook market last year.

You know, Intel only has 3 45nm fabs and they could just reduce their output to keep inventory down and people employed. Or maybe sell one to Abu Dhubai . I read somewhere that Intel does not plan to lay off employees despite the economic downturn. And as for the inventory, some sites are reporting that Intel plans to cut prices on the Q9950 to below AMD's 940, and similarly the Q9300/Q9400 below the 920. Since yields are high due to MCM, Intel can easily undercut AMD's top of the line with their midrange.

Finally, you should realize that IBM prides itself on its patent portfolio, and they try to come in as #1 every year since the 1970's in patents awarded. I think Hitachi has beat them out a few times but it usually is IBM at #1.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

JD, if you believe Digitimes has an in to what Intel is doing with their fabs and what their inventory levels are I think you are being naive. I do believe they have higher inventory but that is a guess on my part. My friend at Intel says it it not looking good and he did say that Intel gained market share. That means AMD is doing even worse.

AMD is just not getting any breaks. They finally make a profit in Q3. Q4 will be back to bleeding in my opinion and Q1 2009 will be even worse because of the current financial climate and the standard historical lowest sales in the year.

Actually Q3 was another loss for AMD, not a profitable quarter. Their ATI division finally made a profit, some $50M, but it didn't even pay the interest on the $5.4B acquisition loans.

AMD has had 8 consecutive quarterly losses, and will report another one in 6 days from now. I'd guess another writedown of the ATI value, loss of marketshare, etc will be the lowlights of the report.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

And yet more bad news for AMD: AMD to cut nine per cent of workforce

The short story is that nine per cent of AMD employees will be laid off, and those who remain in the US and Canada will see their pay reduced. Layoffs and pay cuts in other countries are a little trickier because of employment laws, but expect similar actions where possible.

Pay cuts range from about 20 per cent at the top, going down in steps the lower you get to the bottom. The lowest tier workers will have their pay reduced by about five per cent. There is really no good news from this, other than the prospect of keeping the company viable for some time to come.

I suspect a lot of AMD/ATI engineers will be looking for jobs elsewhere shortly.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

Everyone is gonna lose, including nvidia and ati.

I think amd's numbers may be surprising though next quarter. Just the fact that the phenom 2 drops into existing AM2/AM2+/DDR2 mobo's is huge, it means one can make a huge upgrade without having to buy a new mobo and new ram. That can pursuade a lot of buyers.
Most buyers dont need i7 type power anyways, especially with newer powerful video cards that are so cheap and gobs of DDR2 available for pennies.

I don't think the upgrade market for desktop is that big, especially for AMD (which lately only has something like 15% if I remember correctly). AMD would do much better if they could get the server upgrades, seeing as how they get over $2K apiece for the Shanghai's.

If Intel does drop the price hammer with the low to mid Penryns, expect AMD's ASPs to drop significantly, and thus even bigger losses next quarter.

Several financial analysts are predicting AMD to bankrupt this year.