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When will xp finally be a minority?

Last response: in Graphics & Displays
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What month will DX10 OS surpass xp?

Total: 31 votes (7 blank votes)

  • Nov
  • 13 %
  • Dec
  • 13 %
  • Jan
  • 9 %
  • Feb
  • 0 %
  • Mar
  • 5 %
  • April
  • 17 %
  • It never will, DX9 forever!!!
  • 46 %
September 2, 2009 8:14:30 AM

Its getting close

More about : finally minority

September 2, 2009 8:16:16 AM

Could I have a mod move this to graphics?
September 2, 2009 8:45:04 AM

Are we confused today? You open a thread about OS's
"When will xp finally be a minority?"
then you post a poll only dealing with graphics API's. Yes I think we are confused. (Well, I am, for sure...)

OK, enough stick. Your graph seems to blend all versions of x32 and x64 into two lines. Do you have enough data to do 5.x.x32 and x64 as well as 6.x x32 and 64? Just a suggestion...
Related resources
September 2, 2009 8:47:36 AM

croc: 5.x is XP (all versions) and 6.x is Vista (all versions). The 32/64 lines are separate.

September 2, 2009 8:56:23 AM

Most of us want xp to die, with DX9 right alomg with it. As long as it holds a large portion of the market, devs will just keep pumping out old DX versions, which is somewhat limited, and cant of course do DX10,10.1 or 11
September 2, 2009 9:12:46 AM

The only trouble that I could see with the Steam survey is that they could only account for some % of computer users.

Also the problem with XP is that it still works for most people. The adoption rate would increase with new PCs rather than those who would upgrade. Me thinks by 2011 Win XP would start to lose a lot of ground, but still not small enough that you'd want to ignore when you are making games. Probably by 2012 or 2013 then XP could be in the same position as IE6 is in now.
September 2, 2009 9:17:05 AM

XP will die about 3 years after the release of windows 7 when it gets a price drop. Or A couple years after MS removes support for XP.
September 2, 2009 12:53:47 PM

XP is dead, some noobs that tried Vista on crap hardware just dont know it yet.
September 2, 2009 1:06:22 PM

XP is a bit like Mike, dead but doesn't know it.
September 2, 2009 2:32:42 PM

Thing is, this is the most comprehensive listing of gamers/users, so Im sure it impacts decision making for some devs
September 2, 2009 7:32:36 PM

I really do think that Dirt 2 is going to play a big part in how this developes.
Codemasters is a public company and as such would have needed a pretty strong argument to put a launch off for two months, the argument they gave was "because we are going to to use DX11"
This move has cost them money in the short term but has also put them firmly in the spotlight regarding DX11. Now the thing is if the game comes out and is nothing to write home about they are going to look pretty stupid.
On the other hand if the game comes out and is jaw droppingly awsome both in game play and visuals due to the DX11 recode then Codemasters are laughing all the way to the bank.
The main point for me though would be that they would have proved how easy DX11 recoding is, two months for a recode and Q&A.
Now im assuming here that Dirt 2 will still be DX9 compatable ? So if it comes out and runs well on DX9 but runs well on DX11 and looks awsome there is only one way gamers are going to want to play it.
For these reasons i thing Dirt 2 and its sucess or not will play a huge part in how long DX9 has left. If it turns out to be another crisis then we will be in for the long hall as Gamer has said IMHO.

Mactronix
September 2, 2009 8:02:17 PM

JAYDEEJOHN said:
Most of us want xp to die, with DX9 right alomg with it. As long as it holds a large portion of the market, devs will just keep pumping out old DX versions, which is somewhat limited, and cant of course do DX10,10.1 or 11


I don't want it to die, its a great OS. Until I see a reason to upgrade (not a bunch of marketing fluff) I refuse to run anything else!
September 2, 2009 8:56:10 PM

Does windows 5.x include windows 2000? because windows 2000 is windows 5.0... XP is 5.1...

that may be screwing with the numbers
September 2, 2009 9:41:02 PM

The majority of individuals that monitor/read/post in this forum are in to demanding games. That is not a majority of PC users. I know of no one at work (EEs and PhDs) that are into games including myself. At work, they are stuck with XP Pro until NASA Langley upgrades. SC(&% XP, I still maintain 3 Lab Computers (P-90s) running win 3.11. These 3 computer control a Satellite instrument and to upgrade them is probably in the => $100K (This includes software development).

Myself I have migrated to mainly Win 7 (Dual boot to vista on this computer). I've pulled my XP disk and put in closet.

My wife represent a good # of users - internet, email, some programs (Word. bowling secretary, embroidery) and "low end games" that will run on a 5 yr old computers just fine. Her views on changing/upgrading her XP coincides with my guns - YOU will have to pry them from my cold, dead. Hands. - or in her case when she has to get a new computer (One of my newer hand-me-downs) AND then she will probably force me to re-install XP.
September 2, 2009 9:53:30 PM

Well i'm going to be hopping straight to 7 from XP when it's released and i think many other people will also because of the publicity it's gathering. Of course there is always people who aren't prepared to pay for it.
September 2, 2009 10:31:34 PM

You know my opinion already from other posts.

If you mean the overall PC based community, not a chance it happens during the time line your poll covers.

If you are talking about the gaming community it might happen during the time your poll covers, but I doubt it.

The big thing about Win 7 is going to be that it wipes vista out (maybe by the end of the year) but there are alot of single core XP machines that will never switch, even amongst the gaming community. Wiping vista out doesn't help your poll. WoW and all those cheezy asian grind games are not due for a DX 11 update for a couple years.
September 2, 2009 11:41:48 PM

Still using XP.

Mainly use my PC for video encoding and some gaming.
September 3, 2009 4:35:09 AM

cjl said:
croc: 5.x is XP (all versions) and 6.x is Vista (all versions). The 32/64 lines are separate.


Hmmm... Guess I wasn't clear. There are 5.xxx 32 bit versions, and 64 bit versions. There are 6.xxx 32 bit versions and 64 bit versions.

I did, however, admit to being confused. Working all night then waiting all day for a delivery will do that, at least to me.
September 3, 2009 6:08:02 AM

In 2 months time, its gone from 60-40 to 54-46, and W7 isnt out yet, plus the holidays etc.
My guess is Jan
September 3, 2009 6:40:57 AM

RetiredChief said:
The majority of individuals that monitor/read/post in this forum are in to demanding games. That is not a majority of PC users. I know of no one at work (EEs and PhDs) that are into games including myself. At work, they are stuck with XP Pro until NASA Langley upgrades. SC(&% XP, I still maintain 3 Lab Computers (P-90s) running win 3.11. These 3 computer control a Satellite instrument and to upgrade them is probably in the => $100K (This includes software development).

Myself I have migrated to mainly Win 7 (Dual boot to vista on this computer). I've pulled my XP disk and put in closet.

My wife represent a good # of users - internet, email, some programs (Word. bowling secretary, embroidery) and "low end games" that will run on a 5 yr old computers just fine. Her views on changing/upgrading her XP coincides with my guns - YOU will have to pry them from my cold, dead. Hands. - or in her case when she has to get a new computer (One of my newer hand-me-downs) AND then she will probably force me to re-install XP.


I understand what you are saying but i doubt that the people you are talking about are counted in any dermagraphic used by the industry. I would suspect rightly or wrongly they are treated the same way you would a tax write off. As far as the industry are concerned these machines may as well not exist. The Graph JD is using is pretty specific to people in the gaming comunity as its from a company who supply a gaming service.
Machines that dont/wont get upgraded over the whole of there life time due to them having a very specific usage are machines where there is no market for software or additional hardware sales which is another reason i would think they are considered outside the loop as far as this kind of thing is concerned.
Just my opinion but there you go.

Mactronix
September 3, 2009 3:40:56 PM

GEE! I know people who are still using Windows 95 on an old Intel PIII 550Mhz system to surf the web.
September 3, 2009 4:25:24 PM

Your stats excude Windows 7. I suspect there are a fair number already running on the beta. Are you sure XP is not already in the minority today?

But bottom line - who cares. The changes in such things as DX9 dying will happen when they happen. But if that is your primary concern - why not ask that question directly instead of the XP one? Further - what is the significance of XP being in the minority to changing DX9? What if it is in the minority but still the largest of the three - XP, Vista, and 7? How does Apple and Linux figure in?

September 3, 2009 4:42:48 PM

The problem is the utter disbeleif of people that its possable that things might work differantly this time.
Personally i dont really think that XP is the key to this, i really think that its a lot more political this time. The inclusion of the Compute shader is a big step in the right direction to coding without a DX anything. For that reason amongst others i think the devs will be more willing to code for DX11 sooner than would have been considered normal or usual to the history of DX. I also think that there will be a lot of encouragement from the big players here with MS possably helping out and obviously Intel will want things to go in this direction also.
just suposition on my part but there you go.

Mactronix

September 3, 2009 5:05:01 PM

It will take a while beyond the time on the list. The BAD economy will not help Win-7. Big corporate accounts have mostly settled down on XP and are not in a hurry to start another major expense to migrate from XP to Win-7.

There is less appetite for corporate expenses for new OS. IT personnel are being let go to save money.

Common users running on XP will have very little insentive to switch to another OS. For surfing the net? Not good enough to spend the money.

Enthusiast will plunge into Win-7....We are the probing grounds for new stuff. It will be quick for Enthusiast community...8 months to a year.

Microsoft needs to provide a major promo or discount to VISTA USERS to reduce the pain in the pocket. That should help Win-7 and Win-7 is the solution to convince users to do away with XP.

September 3, 2009 5:22:47 PM

Well I still use XP Pro and I think it is great....

Last time I used Vista I had a very hard time with compatability issues, it got to the point that I re-installed XP and since then everything has been butter......

Waiting on Win 7 to drop and then I guess i will upgrade.....
September 3, 2009 6:09:01 PM

I agree - I think there is little reason to upgrade from XP to Vista or Win 7 - but no reason not to get it on a new PC.

Business users will want to try to keep most users on the same operating system rather than supporting two different ones - and licensing two different systems. And neither Vista nor Win 7 provide a significant enought reason to upgrade.

Such will be the model for OS upgrades for the forseeable future.

So MS responds to he resistance in the market by having different XP support cutoff dates for business (later because they have the power to resist and MS needs to keep them happy) and other consumer users (earlier because we have no power and MS wants to soak us for all it can).

Please hurry LINUX - we need you in the mainstream.
September 3, 2009 6:10:23 PM

Even the money for new OS can be considered for a hardware upgrade. Another video card can give you a better return than Win7 at this stage.

September 3, 2009 6:34:08 PM

I agree, but what I do not understand is Bill's greed ATM.... Why charge 109.99 for an OLD OS? You already are in the books as one of the wealthiest men alive, why screw everyone by overpricing your OS's??? One day we will look back and say : Remember when XP was 149.99$?? Dude what a ripoff!!! " lol .... Anyways if 90% of all PC users have a copy of Windows, there is no need to overprice, specially in an economy like this.... This is the main reason peeps prefer to pirate a copy of Win and not purchase it......
September 3, 2009 6:42:04 PM

leon2006 said:
Even the money for new OS can be considered for a hardware upgrade. Another video card can give you a better return than Win7 at this stage.


Thats very dependant on your system, personally i get enough of a performance boost with W7 over XP to be worth 75% of what i would typically expect to get with a GPU upgrade. Im in the UK and have ordered W7 for £45.99, thats around a third of the cost of said GPU upgrade, and also removes the need to upgrade the CPU as well, i would end up CPU restricted with a GPU upgrade, probably am now if im honest which i think is where the boost is coming from with W7 supporting better multi threading its probably releasing a few more frames from the CPU.

Mactronix
September 3, 2009 6:46:18 PM

Well I have benched with XP and Win 7 and to tell you the truth in some instances I get better numbers using XP.... Don't know if it is due to my CPU but I doubt you will see a big difference in performance just cause you upgraded your OS....
September 3, 2009 6:58:30 PM

As i said results will depend on your system, there have been enough benchmarks out that say its very tight between the two which is whats making me think it must be the multi threading aspect and that i must be restricted a bit. All the benchmarks are done with top hardware which obviously wouldn't be restricted in anyway.
I can only talk from my personal experience but to me its (W7) worth its money purely in performance gains every time.

Mactronix
September 4, 2009 12:54:37 AM

The issue is not one of dominance, but one of market share. As long as XP has share, DX development will essentially be stuck at 9.0c with extras.

XP still holds 60% share, give or take. I figure it needs to drop below 20% for devs to start to move on. This will take at least a full year to happen, probably closer to 18 months...
September 4, 2009 1:27:49 AM

mactronix said:
As i said results will depend on your system, there have been enough benchmarks out that say its very tight between the two which is whats making me think it must be the multi threading aspect and that i must be restricted a bit. All the benchmarks are done with top hardware which obviously wouldn't be restricted in anyway.
I can only talk from my personal experience but to me its (W7) worth its money purely in performance gains every time.

Mactronix


Yea makes sense, what do you recommend? Buying Win Vista 64 now with upgrade to Win 7 or wait till Win 7 comes out and buy it then?


September 4, 2009 1:41:04 AM

Go straight to W7 I reckon.
September 4, 2009 2:24:56 AM

Yea I figured but how much will a copy of Win7 64 cost? Kinda sweet to pay 109.99 for both, but I guess the downfall is the fact that Win7 comes as a coupon code and not a real actual disk. Unless I am wrong here......
September 4, 2009 3:03:54 AM

I guess you are reffering to gamers and such, as I know some places (like where I worked in the US Govt.) won't let Vista anywhere near the building! its either XP or XP 64 (or 2000).
September 4, 2009 3:18:49 AM

EXT64 said:
I guess you are reffering to gamers and such, as I know some places (like where I worked in the US Govt.) won't let Vista anywhere near the building! its either XP or XP 64 (or 2000).


...And the US gov't is well known for its excellent security, right?
September 4, 2009 4:30:29 AM

Well, the numbers on steam show it 54% xp, 46% Vista and W7, so its getting close.
Again, I put this in the gfx section because it shows gfx related numbers, not what the gov uses, or businesses use, but games use.
If the devs go by the overall numbers, including govs and businesses, I think a competitor could make quick use of my numbers here.
Ive a feeling once a few things happen, itll snowball.
September 4, 2009 10:11:03 AM

Everyone seems more concerned about business adoption away frm xp, so here:
“I think corporations’ capital budgets got clamped down fairly aggressively at the end of last year. But in terms of PC refresh I would expect that now to happen in 2010. The fleet of PCs is getting fairly aged; most corporate notebooks are now over four years old, desktops are over five years old, they need to refresh,”
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/200909031837...
September 4, 2009 12:52:09 PM

Just last night I had to buy a new ethernet card, my 2 onboards burnt out. Anyway this netgear was instanly noticed by Vista 64 bit, but when booted into XP 32 bit it could not identify, i needed the disk. It has allready started changing with the hardware guys i think. I said April 2010, if you have an econmic collapse then XP will be around for 2-3 more years.
!