Nvidia volume Fermi shipping late Q1

[KidHorn]

http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/16685/1/

In January, Nvidia should have the final samples and a limited number of Fermi Geforce GT300 chips, but the launch might take place later.

If pushed, Nvidia might launch Fermi Geforce in late January as the final chips should be there by then, but real volume shipments should start towards end of Q1 2010.

The most realistic availability date is March 2010, and again only if everything goes right. Judging by our previous information, Nvidia delayed its plans by more than one, if not two quarters.

This is rather unpleasant for Nvidia and the only thing that really keeps Nvidia sane is the fact that ATI also suffers from massive shortages of its 40nm RV870 based chips.

 

[Fkscott17]

March works for me Gives me time to save up.

 

[Mousemonkey]

It also gives time for some decent games to turn up.

 

[renz496]

just hoping that nvidia can put something against ATI HD5xxx series

 

[jennyh]

At this rate Fermi will be competing with the HD6xxx series.

 

[Mousemonkey]

Is that coming out in Q1 as well?

 

[daedalus685]

Is that coming out in Q1 as well?

Nvidia Q1 starts at the end of January (22nd I think). While hecatoncheires won't be near produciton in Q1, there is a good chance fermi will be up against a refresh "5890" during that quarter.

 

[Mousemonkey]

Perhaps, but HD6xxx, unlikely.

 

[JofaMang]

Perhaps, but HD6xxx, unlikely.

Duke Nukem Fermi... I took the HD6xxx reference as a joke, are you sure you couldn't see the humor in that? Who would honestly believe that the next gen of ATI cards would be released in march?

 

[daedalus685]

Perhaps, but HD6xxx, unlikely.

If by unlikely you mean we have a better chance of walking to the moon by this weekend. Yes. 6xxx would have to be some 3 quarters early to release with fermi unless TSMC and all of the fermi IP explodes some time before January (and GF can produce ATI cards by the end of 2010).

 

[jennyh]

I don't actually believe Fermi will be out in Q1 is what I meant.

And unless things change in a big way at TSMC, you won't see it Q2 either. It's too big a gpu to be economically viable on such a broken process.

 

[JofaMang]

Weren't we told last summer, that Fermi would be out by Xmas, or was that just forum conjecture?

 

[jennyh]

According to Fuad it's been due out in September and every month since then.

This issue at TSMC is hurting ATI badly, but if it isn't fixed there will be no desktop Fermi on this node. It's too big, Nvidia will be lucky if they are getting 10-20% yields and that is just not viable in the desktop market - any parts that are made will go straight to being Teslas so they can charge a premium.

 

[Mousemonkey]

Weren't we told last summer, that Fermi would be out by Xmas, or was that just forum conjecture?

Forum conjecture, wishful thinking and the assumption that things were going to run smoothly over at TSMC.

 

[JofaMang]

Ok, heh, if this is their first real claimed ship date, then there is no reason to deny it.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

The 40nm process should have been ready by late last year, with volume qtr1 09.
Now the cards at the time were set for this timetable, and yes, its always shifting, but that was the original roadmap.
Since June, ATI had working parts, the ones demoed back then look exactly like what we have today.
This leads me to think a refresh is very possible by early qtr 2 10, or close to Fermis real volume ramp production hitting shelves.
That also puts the R900 by then end of 2010, or 18 months from original demos of R800, and also puts it in line with GFs 28nm with HKMG

 

[daedalus685]

Forum conjecture, wishful thinking and the assumption that things were going to run smoothly over at TSMC.

You left out magical pixi dust.

Anyway, even the most jaded doomsayer is putting Fermi in the middly of Q2 2010. With Fuad now on the late Q1 waggon I think we can pretty safely assume between March and May we will see Fermi. If we don't, then something terrible would have to happen at TSMC, which would likely hurt ATI as well.. Would be a black year for GPUs.

If Hecatoncheiries can be produced on the tick tock then we should see it in late Q3 at the earliest. Mind you, what we are gong to see is that the new ATI is gonig to be coming out roughly as close to fermi as evergreen did... which will be strange for the industry. If everyone waited this long for Fermi, why not wait longer? and around and around we go!

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

If the waiting game is the one to play here, then waiting for the fermi refresh would be the thing to do, as we saw the 280 not ocing anywheres near as well as the 285, running hotter etc.
If Fermi is to have a refresh, either the original Fermi will be shortlived, or the refresh will, because bythen, the new process will be out

 

[daedalus685]

If the waiting game is the one to play here, then waiting for the fermi refresh would be the thing to do, as we saw the 280 not ocing anywheres near as well as the 285, running hotter etc.
If Fermi is to have a refresh, either the original Fermi will be shortlived, or the refresh will, because bythen, the new process will be out

How quickly can Nvidia turn around a new dsign? What makes you think a refresh would not wait until the new process as it did with the 280 to 285? Besides that, we are on A3 silicon by now? In all respects Fermi may already be a refresh .

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

True, but itll certainly be facing ATIs refresh.
In order to "keep up", theyll need one, and by delaying further for a 1 shot scenario just isnt in the plans, unless absolutely needed, which is where were at, tho some predicted this long ago

 

[jennyh]

Nvidia should be buying all the 55nm wafer starts TSMC have and start shipping the 200's again. If it wasn't for the 5770 I'd suggest AMD might want to do that too.

I can barely believe how badly TSMC have messed their 40nm up. It's not going to get better, why would it now after so many false dawns?

Sooner or later Nvidia are going to run out of gpu's to sell....if they haven't already.

 

[crosko42]

Edit: Nevermind, misread the post.

 

[daedalus685]

Nvidia should be buying all the 55nm wafer starts TSMC have and start shipping the 200's again. If it wasn't for the 5770 I'd suggest AMD might want to do that too.

I can barely believe how badly TSMC have messed their 40nm up. It's not going to get better, why would it now after so many false dawns?

Sooner or later Nvidia are going to run out of gpu's to sell....if they haven't already.

It may be too late for that, either TSMC has new clients using those machines (such as TI), or they have transitioned thsoe machines over to another node. I can't imagine them leaving empty production for very long, they need the cash flow as much as anyone. Either way, it won't be as simple as Nvidia stating that "oh we want these now." It could take months.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Thing is, nVidia will need to have top perf from the get go here in all segments, and Fermis scaling must be good, and theyll have to crank each design, if theres no refresh.
This is obviously making it tough on nVidia, and it doesnt appear theres a node shrink in time to shift either, as we saw with the 3870.
I think we me see a shift from slightly hotter ATI cards as we saw in the 4xxx series vs the 200 series to a slightly hotter G300 series vs a cooler running,less power hungry 800 series

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Nvidia should be buying all the 55nm wafer starts TSMC have and start shipping the 200's again. If it wasn't for the 5770 I'd suggest AMD might want to do that too.

I can barely believe how badly TSMC have messed their 40nm up. It's not going to get better, why would it now after so many false dawns?

Sooner or later Nvidia are going to run out of gpu's to sell....if they haven't already.

"Yes, we are impacted by TSMC's continued problems with production at the 40 nm process, however we feel we are tracking reasonably well to where we expected to be at this point, thanks in large part to our early start with 40 nm process technology with the ATI Radeon HD 4770. Yields for the ATI Radeon HD 5800 series, our most complex ASIC to date, are only slightly off from the aggressive targets we set. At the same time, we are actually tracking above target for the production of the ATI Radeon HD 5700 series.

In the very near future, as we overcome supply constraints, we will be increasing shipments of 5800 series graphics processors by roughly an order of magnitude, moving from thousands of units shipped per week to tens of thousands. This should alleviate some of the pent-up demand.


Read more: AMD speak to Heaven Media about HD5000 shortages - DriverHeaven.net http://www.driverheaven.net/news.php?newsid=322#ixzz0YfHbOJNK