Probably 75/25 chance, BUT first you will have to:
.. A) get a RMA authorization, which means they will have you run some test based on THEIR HDD drive utility.
.. B) after you do send it back they will evaluate, which is cheapest, replacing your HDD or repairing your HDD. What you get will depend on what they have in stock.
BUT you may fall in that "25%" and end up with the same HDD that someone else sent back and the "REFERBISHED" it.