Buying External HDDs = gambling? Also, which manufacturer?

I'm in need of an external ~2tb HDD for long-term storage, no rewrite, only write + occassional reading.
However, after reading a lot of user reviews on various sites like amazon, every external hdd, no matter which manufacturer, size, amount of usage, has about 10-15% reports of people who give the lowest possible rating because theirs broke within the first 2 weeks - 1 year.

Is this a gamble that you need to commit to if you're buying an external hdd?
Is there a manufacturer that you guys think is less prone to failure?

Just from my point of view, I have an internal seagate 500gb which is 4.5 years old and in terms of usage, has seen quite a large amount of "abuse" (written on 3 times to 95% fill, deleted back to 50%, and up to 95% again, paired with a lot of daily delete/copy/rewrite) which still works perfectly fine.
Does that extend to their external hdds, too, or is this also just luck?
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More about buying external hdds gambling also manufacturer
  1. The reviews on newegg suggest exactly the same as the ones on amazon, thus, not anwering my original question.
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