Yeah GTX460 1gb is what I'd go with as well. Especially for under $200, that's $30 off what they usually are.
HD5830 would be 2nd choice probably, would avoid cards under 1gb with a 1920x1080 or higher monitor when purchasing a new card. (Not that the ones with less can't do ok, just that I wouldn't buy a new one with less)
I'd recommend the MSi cyclone for that price and resolution, It does however have a large fan on it that may hinder a SLi setup or other aftermarket parts such as CPU coolers in some circumstances. If you supply a technical specification of your current PC I can recommend what you buy based on this.
Price drops apply on both sides. There's already a 768mb cards on newegg for $180, $20 less than the cheapest HD5830. There was an HD5830 for $170 shipped with a promo code the other day which was a nice deal though.