I realize this is an old thread, forgive me for the act of necromancy. I read the original post and it brought up some issues in my head.
jsc, I see two "problems" with your initial analysis... both sides of the same coin.
(There's also a third: the fact that you end up reaching waaaay beyond the class of devices in question. PC PSU capacitor-aging computations don't apply to ancient stereo system or
vacuum tube(!) instrument amps in any way! That's just silly. But let's forget that bit, and focus on the question as it
does pertain to PC PSUs.)
The first issue I see is that you're applying the calculator adjustments backwards. The calculators don't function to predict the output of a PSU (initially or over time), they function to predict what size PSU will be needed to power a given setup (initially and, through capacitor aging, over time).
So, take this example...
jsc said:
I have a 7 or 8 year old 400 watt Antec power supply that apparently still works fine. Figuring 10% degradation a year, it should be able to produce only .90^7*400 or about 190 watts.
...Except, that's not what the calculator is saying. What it's saying is (assuming your system was maximally loading the PSU from day 1 — in other words, that it was a load that even required a 400W PSU) that over time that 400W PSU will grow less able to handle that load. If you wanted, initially, to buy a PSU that would
definitely be able to handle a 400W load with no problems even when it's four years old, you should get one rated for at least 560W (400W + 10%x4). That's not even accounting for headroom or worrying about efficiency, it's just saying that even accounting for its capacitors degrading over time, a 4-year-old 560W PSU should have no problems handling a 400W load. Anything smaller, you
might run into problems.
And that's the other half of it — the calculators aren't telling you what they
expect to happen to actual PSU performance over time. They're telling you
what you should be able to trust it to handle. So, take this second example...
jsc said:
I have another system (recently pulled out of service) that I ran 24/7 except for when I was away on vacation. It ran for about 4 years on a cheapy 450 watt PSU. According to the PSU calculator, the PSU was producing around 180 - 190 watts when I pulled it out of service.
Again, not what the calculator is saying. It's saying that, due to the PSU's age, you shouldn't trust that PSU to power a system that requires more than ~180W-190W. And I personally think — again, given its age — that actually sounds pretty reasonable. If I had an old 450W PSU that I knew wasn't very good to start with, I'd never try to power a system that requires 400W with it! But if I had a system that I knew wouldn't tax it past around half its original rating, well, then I'd think it would probably be just fine.
The calculators aren't predictive — they aren't even MEANT to be. They're built to account for worst-case scenarios, so of course their degradation numbers are pessimistic. Because doesn't it make sense to overbuild a little bit in the beginning, to minimize the chance of problems developing down the road?