Predict AMD's Q4 Earnings ... go on !!

[Reynod]

Jan 21, 2010
Q4 2009 Earnings Conference Call - 5:00PM EST -


Ok so we have a couple of days before it is official so I thought we could have a bit of a competition and see who gets closest to the actual figure ... be it negative or positive.

I predict a slight loss of 122 Million as I haven't taken into account the 1.25 Billion payment from Intel ...

Post and give it your best shot ...


Short quote from the last earnings call (Q2_2009) I found interesting:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/166870-advanced-micro-devices-inc-q3-2009-earnings-call-transcript?page=1

page=8

Kevin Cassidy - Thomas Weisel Partners

Dirk you had mentioned in your prepared remarks you thought the IT market was positioned to improve. I wonder if you could expand on that a little bit.


Dirk R. Meyer

Sure. You know it’s hard to put a number on it but the tone of the conversations that we’re having with CIOs and other IT decision makers around the industry have certainly changed in the last three months. You know clearly wallets are starting to free up you know now even a little bit as people perhaps will actually spend the IT procurement budgets that they had at the beginning of the year. And again the tone of the conversation about what they’re thinking in regards to overall IT spend in 2010 is certainly more bullish than it was. Yet to be realized yet but you know where six months ago people were thinking maybe it’s another down year in terms of their IT procurement, not so. People seem to be thinking they might spend a little bit more money next year. So time will tell.

Kevin Cassidy - Thomas Weisel Partners


So you think there even could be a fourth quarter budget flush?

Dirk R. Meyer

Possible.


This information courtesy of Seeking Alpha www.SeekingAlpha.com.

 

[randomkid]

I'd make a wild guess of a profit of USD250M just for the heck of it. We'll I did buy 2 CPUs from them this year so it should make a dent toward the positive side he he... But I really hope they do make some money after all the efforts...

 

[jennyh]

$490 million profit for the 'product company', $270 million profit overall.

 

[Hellboy]

$490 million profit for the 'product company', $270 million profit overall.

I actually recon they will make a 30 million loss.. Next year will be AMD's year and im not even going to included Intels 1.25 billion dollars.

Next year will see AMD succeed as the budget market.

 

[randomizer]

It doesn't matter what they make. The only thing that matters is:

AMD break-even Q4 2009. *Gauranteed*

 

[qurious69ss]

I actually recon they will make a 30 million loss.. Next year will be AMD's year and im not even going to included Intels 1.25 billion dollars.

Next year will see AMD succeed as the budget market.

2010 should be an interesting year for Amd especially since Intel will start pushing the Core i3/i5 into the mainstream market and they (Amd} have nothing to compete with Intel but to lower their prices. You believe that this will be how they will succeed or are they bringing something else into the budget market that we don"t know about?

 

[Reynod]

Just post a figure and belay the commentary ... so edit your post and put a number in.

You can then look back after the official figures are posted without looking like a drongo ...

Please?

 

[Pro Llama]

I’m going for a small $60m profit.

 

[fazers_on_stun]

The analysts are predicting a loss of 15 cents per share, which comes out to $100M loss. However lately Jenny has been better at guessing than the analysts, so I'm gonna go split the difference, or $175M profit .

BTW, I don't think the Intel payment will figure into the profit statement since AMD already said they used that to reduce their debt. A profit is what you make on sales & investments, minus expenditures. Unless Bob the Rivet comes up with a novel accounting technique once more .

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

More than fiddy cents

 

[qurious69ss]

fiddy cent the rapper? j/k. Yes they will be in the black, and I say 200mil

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

Well, how much is he worth?

 

[roofus]

tough one here. they are heading in the right direction and many opportunities for them that never existed before. i don't think they escape the red ink this time but will be firmly in the black by next earnings report.

 

[masterasia]

Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

 

[jonpaul37]

With the 1.25Bil that Intel gave them, they were able to pay off debt, very little went into anything else, so i will NOT factor that in.

22 Mil product company
7 Mil overall

If the yields for their 58xx series cards were better i would have guessed a little higher, but they didn't start a good flow of the product till just before christmas...

 

[jennyh]

The analysts are predicting a loss of 15 cents per share, which comes out to $100M loss. However lately Jenny has been better at guessing than the analysts, so I'm gonna go split the difference, or $175M profit .

Heh.

You will probably be closer to it than me. My figures are definitely based more on hopes than real expectation, but if AMD aren't in the black then I dunno what they have to do to get into the black tbh.

 

[enigma067]

Intel Gets Start of Antitrust Backlash from OEMs

http://industry.bnet.com/technology/10004584/intel-gets-start-of-antitrust-backlash-from-oems/


It is too early to expect profit. It takes time to recover from being OPPRESSED BY TYRANNY.

 

[jennyh]

Nah not really. Analysts are saying $1.49 billion revenues, that gets AMD really close considering $1.39 billion revenues and loss of what, $120m or so last quarter.

There was a favourable impact on that to the tune of $60m or so, so lets say an overall loss of $200m was what it really was last quarter.

By my reckoning, ATI have almost dealt with that themselves, I expect minimum $450m revenues out of ATI this quarter vs $306m last. Just general christmas cpu sales increases should easily take AMD into the black after that. The analysts say $1.5bn, I'm saying $1.75bn.

Fazers figures are probably a bit more reasonable than mine, but you never know... I will be disappointed if it's less than $100m profit, and near disbelief if it is another loss.

 

[BadTrip]

My vote: Break even.

+/- $200,000,000

 

[randomizer]

I'm going with $13,549,003 in the black.

 

[JAYDEEJOHN]

$440 million
Linky
http://www.chacha.com/question/how-much-is-jz-and-fifty-cent-and-puff-daddy-worth

 

[jimmysmitty]

$440 million
Linky
http://www.chacha.com/question/how-much-is-jz-and-fifty-cent-and-puff-daddy-worth

Hah. I expected more from Fiddy after that Smart Water deal. Oh well.

My guess? Anywhere from -$100 to +50 million. I don't expect them to truly profit that much since the HD5K series had bad yields as did the HD4890 but the HD4870 and below went down in price and got bought up a bit. but since, much like their CPUs, they were sold at near cost of production their profit margins are lower.

but thats my guess, especially since you cannot include Intels $1.25B into the mix. If then they would have a nice profit.

 

[smithereen]

$490 million profit for the 'product company', $270 million profit overall.

Good to have you back Jenny.

 

[Reynod]

steady now ... don't upset her.

Hey enigma ... toss a figure into the ring ... c'mon ... be nice !!

 

[verndewd]

question is did phenom2 come in soon enough to impact earnings they have been loosing money every quarter since core 2.

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/091104/amd10-q.html

Table of Contents
In this section, we will describe the general financial condition and the results of operations for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries as well as GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GF) and its consolidated subsidiaries, including a discussion of our results of operations for the quarter and nine months ended September 26, 2009 compared to the quarter ended June 27, 2009 and quarter and nine months ended September 27, 2008, an analysis of changes in our financial condition and a discussion of our contractual obligations and off balance sheet arrangements. For accounting purposes, we are required to consolidate the accounts of GF. References in this report to "us," "our," or "AMD" include these consolidated operating results.

During the third quarter of 2009, we made progress toward improving our financial performance as we continued to focus on controlling our operating expenses and as demand increased for our products. We continued to improve our competitive position with the introduction of more competitive products. In the third quarter of 2009, we introduced our industry-leading ATI Radeon HD 5000 series of GPU products. We also introduced more energy efficient six-core AMD Opteron�processors for servers.

Net revenue in the third quarter of 2009 was $1.4 billion, an increase of 18 percent compared to the second quarter of 2009 and a decrease of 22 percent compared to the third quarter of 2008. The increase in third quarter 2009 net revenue compared to the second quarter of 2009 was primarily due to a 16 percent increase in unit shipments. Unit shipments increased due to an increase in demand for our products. Net revenue in the third quarter of 2008 included process technology license revenue of $191 million, which accounted for 11 percent of total third quarter 2008 revenue. Without the effect of the process technology license revenue, net revenue in the third quarter of 2009 would have decreased 13 percent compared to the third quarter of 2008. This 13 percent decrease in third quarter 2009 net revenue compared to the third quarter of 2008 was primarily due to a 14 percent decrease in average selling prices. Average selling prices for the third quarter of 2009 compared to the third quarter of 2008 decreased due to a decrease in average selling prices of microprocessors for notebooks and GPU products primarily due to a shift in our product mix to more value-priced products.

Gross margin as a percentage of net revenue for the third quarter of 2009 was 42 percent, a 5 percentage point increase compared to 37 percent in the second quarter of 2009 and a 9 percentage point decrease compared to 51 percent in the third quarter of 2008. Gross margin in the third quarter of 2009 included a $9 million, or 1 percentage point, benefit related to the sale of inventory that had been written-down in the fourth quarter of 2008. A portion of this inventory was also sold in the second quarter of 2009, which benefited gross margin in the second quarter of 2009 by $98 million, or approximately 8 percentage points. The increase in gross margin in the third quarter of 2009 as compared to the second quarter of 2009 was primarily due to an improvement in our unit costs. Our unit costs improved primarily due to an increase in microprocessor unit shipments using our 45-nanometer technology. Gross margin was also favorably impacted by the improvement in utilization of GF's manufacturing assets in the third quarter of 2009. Gross margin in the third quarter of 2008 was favorably impacted by 6 percentage points as a result of the $191 million process technology license revenue noted above. Gross margin in the third quarter of 2009 declined compared to the third quarter of 2008 primarily due to a decline in average selling prices. Average selling prices declined due to a decrease in average selling prices of microprocessors for notebooks and GPU products due to a shift in our product mix to more value-priced products.

Our operating loss for the third quarter of 2009 was $77 million compared to a $249 million operating loss in the second quarter of 2009 and $122 million of operating income in the third quarter of 2008. The improvement in operating performance in the third quarter of 2009 compared to the second quarter of 2009 was primarily due to an 18 percent increase in net revenue described above and a 5 percent decrease in research and development expenses and marketing, general and administrative expenses primarily due to the effect of our cost reduction initiatives. The decline in operating performance in the third quarter of 2009 compared to the third quarter of 2008 was primarily due to a 22 percent decrease in net revenue described above partially offset by a 15 percent decrease in research and development expenses and marketing, general and administrative expenses primarily due to the effect of our cost reduction initiatives.

Our cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of September 26, 2009 were $2.5 billion compared to $1.1 billion as of December 27, 2008. The increase in our cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities was primarily due to the consummation of the GF manufacturing joint venture transaction in the first quarter of 2009. Of the $2.5 billion, $975 million constituted GF cash and cash equivalents. During 2009, we repurchased an aggregate of $344 million principal amount of our 6.00% Notes for $161 million in cash.

We intend the discussion of our financial condition and results of operations that follows to provide information that will assist you in understanding our financial statements, the changes in certain key items in those financial statements from period to period, the primary factors that resulted in those changes, and how certain accounting principles, policies and estimates affect our financial statements.


Wafer Supply Agreement. The Wafer Supply Agreement governs the terms by which we purchase products manufactured by GF. Pursuant to the Wafer Supply Agreement, we purchase, subject to limited exceptions, all of our microprocessor unit (MPU) product requirements from GF. If we acquire a third-party business that manufactures MPU products, we will have up to two years to transition the manufacture of such MPU products to GF. In addition, once GF establishes a 32nm-qualified process, we will purchase from GF, where competitive, specified percentages of our graphics processor unit (GPU) requirements at all process nodes, which percentages will increase linearly over a five-year period. At our request, GF will also provide sort services to us on a product-by-product basis.

Ill say in the black 250 million