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Nintendo GameBoy: Your End Is Near!

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Anonymous
October 27, 2004 10:54:53 PM

Archived from groups: alt.games.video.sony-playstation2,rec.games.video.sony,alt.games.video.nintendo.gamecube,rec.games.video.nintendo,alt.games.video.nintendo.gameboy.advance (More info?)

okay, things aren't THAT bad for Nintendo, yet. found a pretty good
article here on Sony's strategy with PSP

___________________________________________________________________________
For first time ever, a gaming portable to be sold at loss!




By this single stroke of ballsy gambit, the argument that DS and PSP is
competing in different markets by Nintendo fans and even Sony's own
marketing department (preparing consumers for the posibble sticker shock)
has been slashed into bloody chunks. Sony is going for the kill. Sony wants
the "third pillar" demolished even before it has a chance to be erected and
spoil the PSP until a proper GB Advance replacement arrives.

Never in history of gaming portables, was any hardware sold at a loss. Only
the console business was set to the 'sell the handles at a loss, make money
on the blades' model, since the software to console attachment rate was
great enough to support such a plan. No gaming portable ever came close
enough to such attachment rates for the manufacturer to feel comfortable
enough with selling hardware at a loss to build up the market share (perhaps
some of the Gameboy iterations came close to or exceeded such attachment
rates, but since they always were the market leader, they weren't ever
compelled to sell the hardware at a loss at any point).

This is A HUGE gamble for Sony. Will it pay off?

Some possible reasons why Sony is compelled to sell PSP at a loss:

1. They are in it for the long haul with the PSP.

Unlike new Gameboy every 18 months plan like Nintendo's, Sony has already
stated that the PSP is a 10 year hardware. You won't be seeing PSP 2 in 2
year's time (not counting the little improvements they'll make as they go),
that's for sure, but you can count on a new Gameboy before 2 years is up
(Nintendo has already stated that a real Gameboy Advance replacement that is
not a "third pillar" is in the works, to be unveiled in a year or so).

By aiming for the long haul, they are willing to eat huge losses on the
hardware for the first few years until manufacturing processes catches up on
costs, while building a PSOne like iron glove stranglehold on the portable
marketshare leadership.

2. PSP's technology is advanced enough to compete in the long haul.

Specs for the PSP is certainly well above the DS and anything else in the
horizon. Just in polycount, PSP's 33 million per sec theoretical/8 million
per sec practical just dwarfs the closest competitor in performance, which
is the Tiger Telematic's Gizmondo (thanks to nVidia's GoForce 3D 4500 GPU),
rated at 5 million per sec theoretical/sub 1 million per sec practical. DS's
120,000 polys per sec is not even in the same hemisphere.

I highly doubt PSP will compete anywhere near 10 years down the road, but
for the next few years, it should compete handidly in 3D performance.

3. Nintendo's semi agressive pricing on the DS is forcing their hands.

$150 for DS is significantly lower than the $200 the anaylists and probably
Sony were expecting. PSP's perceived value might eaily be 50% or so more
over the DS to the consumers, but 100% more? Sony must have not thought so
either. So their plans for $300 PSP went out the window with the Nintendo's
TGS announcement (making for the unexpected silence on the PSP pricing plans
back then).

Few months later, this is the reply by Sony. And the gloves are off.

Possible wrenches in Sony's plans:

1. Even with the great value PSP now presents, PSP's poor battery
performance could bring the early pro and consumer reviews down enough to
slow down PSP adoption outside of hardcore gamers.

Negative vibe on the battery performance could be a spoiler for PSP's market
build up until Sony solves the problem, which could be couple of years.

2. Competition could catch up in 3D performance quicker than expected.

nVidia and PowerVR has already shipped portable 3D chips to OEMs, and a
Pocket PC with the PowerVR chip (essentially a slower but more feature
filled version of the CLX graphics chip in the Dreamcast) has shipped in the
form of the Dell Axim X50V. ATI will follow suit with their own 3D handheld
chip in the coming months. Although they are only a fraction of the power
(1/4~1/5 approximately) of the PSP's GPU, they do run cooler and drain less
battery power.

And with the focus squarely on handheld 3D now, and all the potential uber
cell phones and PDAs to be sold, the race is on in mobile 3D development.
Next year should be intersting since even MS is making sure that the Pocket
PC OS (Windows Mobile 2005) will have all the proper support for 3D with the
inclusion of Direct 3D mobile. IMG Tech (PowerVR), nVidia, and ATI, as well
as others will be pouring on the money for the dominance of mobile 3D in the
coming years. PSP could be superceded in 3D performance as quickly as 3~4
years, if PC 3D GPU development is anything to go by.

The question then becomes, would Sony would have gathered enough of the
marketshare with the PSP by then to have enough command of the market and
the dev support to twart the newcomers (one of them probably from
Microsoft)?
____________________________________________________________________________
____

More about : nintendo gameboy end

Anonymous
October 28, 2004 9:08:30 AM

Archived from groups: alt.games.video.sony-playstation2,rec.games.video.sony,alt.games.video.nintendo.gamecube,rec.games.video.nintendo,alt.games.video.nintendo.gameboy.advance (More info?)

It's a nicely written article and I love my PS2 but at this poimt from what I
hear Nintendo will still have it over Sony in the handheld gaming system.
This doesn't have to be a bad thing though. Let's face it even though the Cube
is an awesome system it's not quite the system that PS2 has proven to be. True
hardcore gamers have both systems and the Xbox as well probably.

Sony is winning the console wars and Nintendo is winning the handheld wars. Xbos
has yet to be determined where they will go.
Anonymous
October 28, 2004 2:20:14 PM

Archived from groups: alt.games.video.sony-playstation2,rec.games.video.sony,alt.games.video.nintendo.gamecube,rec.games.video.nintendo,alt.games.video.nintendo.gameboy.advance (More info?)

> 1. They are in it for the long haul with the PSP.
>
> Unlike new Gameboy every 18 months plan like Nintendo's, Sony has already
> stated that the PSP is a 10 year hardware. You won't be seeing PSP 2 in 2
> year's time (not counting the little improvements they'll make as they go),
> that's for sure, but you can count on a new Gameboy before 2 years is up
> (Nintendo has already stated that a real Gameboy Advance replacement that is
> not a "third pillar" is in the works, to be unveiled in a year or so).

LOL! i own one gameboy advanced and i can play any gameboy game on it,
no matter what models of gameboys exist out there even the recent SP
model... in fact, the model of gameboys that exist are only cosmetic in
difference, it was part of nintendo's marketing strategy - so does it
matter at all how often nintendo release a new model? i think not...


> 2. PSP's technology is advanced enough to compete in the long haul.

that is an extremely short sighted view on the progress of technology,
there is no doubting that the PSP is a powerful piece of kit, however
stating that it will still be a competitor in 10 years time is
ridiculous... it would be like saying that the playstation or N64 can
compete technologically with today's hardware...
Related resources
Anonymous
October 28, 2004 4:09:38 PM

Archived from groups: alt.games.video.sony-playstation2,rec.games.video.sony,alt.games.video.nintendo.gamecube,rec.games.video.nintendo,alt.games.video.nintendo.gameboy.advance (More info?)

On Thu, 28 Oct 2004 10:20:14 +0100, Jimmery <not@chance> wrote:

>
>> 2. PSP's technology is advanced enough to compete in the long haul.
>
>that is an extremely short sighted view on the progress of technology,
>there is no doubting that the PSP is a powerful piece of kit, however
>stating that it will still be a competitor in 10 years time is
>ridiculous... it would be like saying that the playstation or N64 can
>compete technologically with today's hardware...

People still by PSOnes and games for them today...how old is that
console? You can still buy gameboy games in the shops....I had one of
them at school, and I'm 30 now!!!

Sure, it won't compete technologically, but once the console takes
off, the rules change to that of market share and revenue streams from
game and peripheral sales...that's the competition they'll be
interested in for 10 years.

j.
Anonymous
October 28, 2004 5:27:04 PM

Archived from groups: alt.games.video.sony-playstation2,rec.games.video.sony,alt.games.video.nintendo.gamecube,rec.games.video.nintendo,alt.games.video.nintendo.gameboy.advance (More info?)

hammerstein wrote:

> On Thu, 28 Oct 2004 10:20:14 +0100, Jimmery <not@chance> wrote:
>
>
>>>2. PSP's technology is advanced enough to compete in the long haul.
>>
>>that is an extremely short sighted view on the progress of technology,
>>there is no doubting that the PSP is a powerful piece of kit, however
>>stating that it will still be a competitor in 10 years time is
>>ridiculous... it would be like saying that the playstation or N64 can
>>compete technologically with today's hardware...
>
>
> People still by PSOnes and games for them today...how old is that
> console? You can still buy gameboy games in the shops....I had one of
> them at school, and I'm 30 now!!!

people still buy old arcade games of pong - but that was not my point...


> Sure, it won't compete technologically, but once the console takes
> off, the rules change to that of market share and revenue streams from
> game and peripheral sales...that's the competition they'll be
> interested in for 10 years.

whether you or i like it technology plays an important part in the world
of video games - sure old hardware still sells (particulary on ebay),
but old hardware has an insigficant slice of the market share - what
matters is the current generation of hardware because the majority of
people do not want to buy something that is already out of date...

i think that handheld life cycles are generally a bit longer than the
4/5 year life cycle for a console, but its certainly not twice the life
cycle of a console...
Anonymous
October 28, 2004 8:15:15 PM

Archived from groups: alt.games.video.sony-playstation2,rec.games.video.sony,alt.games.video.nintendo.gamecube,rec.games.video.nintendo,alt.games.video.nintendo.gameboy.advance (More info?)

I gurantee your still a virgin...
Anonymous
October 31, 2004 10:35:43 AM

Archived from groups: alt.games.video.sony-playstation2,rec.games.video.sony,alt.games.video.nintendo.gamecube,rec.games.video.nintendo,alt.games.video.nintendo.gameboy.advance (More info?)

"Xenon" <xenonxbox2@xboxnext.com> wrote in message news:<Muednb8bcMLXqB3cRVn-hg@comcast.com>...
> okay, things aren't THAT bad for Nintendo, yet. found a pretty good
> article here on Sony's strategy with PSP
>
> ___________________________________________________________________________
> For first time ever, a gaming portable to be sold at loss!
>
>
>
>
> By this single stroke of ballsy gambit, the argument that DS and PSP is
> competing in different markets by Nintendo fans and even Sony's own
> marketing department (preparing consumers for the posibble sticker shock)
> has been slashed into bloody chunks. Sony is going for the kill. Sony wants
> the "third pillar" demolished even before it has a chance to be erected and
> spoil the PSP until a proper GB Advance replacement arrives.
>
> Never in history of gaming portables, was any hardware sold at a loss. Only
> the console business was set to the 'sell the handles at a loss, make money
> on the blades' model, since the software to console attachment rate was
> great enough to support such a plan. No gaming portable ever came close
> enough to such attachment rates for the manufacturer to feel comfortable
> enough with selling hardware at a loss to build up the market share (perhaps
> some of the Gameboy iterations came close to or exceeded such attachment
> rates, but since they always were the market leader, they weren't ever
> compelled to sell the hardware at a loss at any point).
>
> This is A HUGE gamble for Sony. Will it pay off?
>
> Some possible reasons why Sony is compelled to sell PSP at a loss:
>
> 1. They are in it for the long haul with the PSP.
>
> Unlike new Gameboy every 18 months plan like Nintendo's, Sony has already
> stated that the PSP is a 10 year hardware. You won't be seeing PSP 2 in 2
> year's time (not counting the little improvements they'll make as they go),
> that's for sure, but you can count on a new Gameboy before 2 years is up
> (Nintendo has already stated that a real Gameboy Advance replacement that is
> not a "third pillar" is in the works, to be unveiled in a year or so).
>
> By aiming for the long haul, they are willing to eat huge losses on the
> hardware for the first few years until manufacturing processes catches up on
> costs, while building a PSOne like iron glove stranglehold on the portable
> marketshare leadership.
>
> 2. PSP's technology is advanced enough to compete in the long haul.
>
> Specs for the PSP is certainly well above the DS and anything else in the
> horizon. Just in polycount, PSP's 33 million per sec theoretical/8 million
> per sec practical just dwarfs the closest competitor in performance, which
> is the Tiger Telematic's Gizmondo (thanks to nVidia's GoForce 3D 4500 GPU),
> rated at 5 million per sec theoretical/sub 1 million per sec practical. DS's
> 120,000 polys per sec is not even in the same hemisphere.
>
> I highly doubt PSP will compete anywhere near 10 years down the road, but
> for the next few years, it should compete handidly in 3D performance.
>
> 3. Nintendo's semi agressive pricing on the DS is forcing their hands.
>
> $150 for DS is significantly lower than the $200 the anaylists and probably
> Sony were expecting. PSP's perceived value might eaily be 50% or so more
> over the DS to the consumers, but 100% more? Sony must have not thought so
> either. So their plans for $300 PSP went out the window with the Nintendo's
> TGS announcement (making for the unexpected silence on the PSP pricing plans
> back then).
>
> Few months later, this is the reply by Sony. And the gloves are off.
>
> Possible wrenches in Sony's plans:
>
> 1. Even with the great value PSP now presents, PSP's poor battery
> performance could bring the early pro and consumer reviews down enough to
> slow down PSP adoption outside of hardcore gamers.
>
> Negative vibe on the battery performance could be a spoiler for PSP's market
> build up until Sony solves the problem, which could be couple of years.
>
> 2. Competition could catch up in 3D performance quicker than expected.
>
> nVidia and PowerVR has already shipped portable 3D chips to OEMs, and a
> Pocket PC with the PowerVR chip (essentially a slower but more feature
> filled version of the CLX graphics chip in the Dreamcast) has shipped in the
> form of the Dell Axim X50V. ATI will follow suit with their own 3D handheld
> chip in the coming months. Although they are only a fraction of the power
> (1/4~1/5 approximately) of the PSP's GPU, they do run cooler and drain less
> battery power.
>
> And with the focus squarely on handheld 3D now, and all the potential uber
> cell phones and PDAs to be sold, the race is on in mobile 3D development.
> Next year should be intersting since even MS is making sure that the Pocket
> PC OS (Windows Mobile 2005) will have all the proper support for 3D with the
> inclusion of Direct 3D mobile. IMG Tech (PowerVR), nVidia, and ATI, as well
> as others will be pouring on the money for the dominance of mobile 3D in the
> coming years. PSP could be superceded in 3D performance as quickly as 3~4
> years, if PC 3D GPU development is anything to go by.
>
> The question then becomes, would Sony would have gathered enough of the
> marketshare with the PSP by then to have enough command of the market and
> the dev support to twart the newcomers (one of them probably from
> Microsoft)?
> ____________________________________________________________________________
> ____

With the GB/GBA, Nintendo has had a bulletproof dynasty. I doubt this
PSP will be able to do much to it.
!