Sign in with
Sign up | Sign in
Your question
sticky

AMD CPU speculation... and expert conjecture - Page 10

Tags:
  • AMD
  • CPUs
Last response: in CPUs
Share
December 12, 2012 10:24:47 AM

http://semiaccurate.com/2012/12/12/nvidias-audi-win-goe...

Nothing significant, except that Nvidia is more sh!tty than other companies.
Also, Tegra3 based phones are not in the top category anymore. So yes, Nvidia has made some money this quarter, but its going to lose money if Tegra4 is not present in top tier phones and tablets.
a b à CPUs
December 12, 2012 6:47:31 PM

mayankleoboy1 said:
http://semiaccurate.com/2012/12/12/nvidias-audi-win-goe...

Nothing significant, except that Nvidia is more sh!tty than other companies.
Also, Tegra3 based phones are not in the top category anymore. So yes, Nvidia has made some money this quarter, but its going to lose money if Tegra4 is not present in top tier phones and tablets.



It's a false title once you read the update. The TI SoC didn't displace the Nvidia one. It's being used for a more advanced digital radio alongside Tegra.

a b à CPUs
December 12, 2012 7:00:14 PM

JAYDEEJOHN said:
Higher demand from earlier adopters left nVidia somewhat behind the 8 ball early on.

As for costs, everyone had to pay those rates, as newer nodes are simply more expensive to make.

Perf wise, its been a very good node


And as for yield ramps, fairly dismal for both NV and AMD from what I remember, which is the main reason why the new GPUs were in short supply for a good while.
Related resources
a b à CPUs
December 12, 2012 9:23:09 PM

fazers_on_stun said:
IIRC the justification for SOI was lower power consumption, due to lower leakage. Of course you could also oc the heck outta it, on LN2 anyway :p 



It's all tied together though. Less leakage means you don't have to push the voltages as high as you ramp the clock speeds, which keeps you lower on the TDP curve.

That's one reason why we don't see 4Ghz ARM chips yet.

Even ARM concluded that SOI gives a sizable benefit over bulk.

http://www.arm.com/about/newsroom/26070.php

"The silicon results show that 45nm high-performance SOI technology can provide up to 40 percent power savings and a 7 percent circuit area reduction compared to bulk CMOS low-power technology, operating at the same speed. This same implementation also demonstrated 20 percent higher operating frequency capability over bulk while saving 30 percent in total power in specific test applications."
December 13, 2012 12:05:09 AM

If you are Intel, any fudge you make, still far ahead of the industry. Instead of leading them by 70%, you lead them by 50%.
a b À AMD
a c 84 à CPUs
December 14, 2012 3:59:55 AM

AMD: We Would Like to Use Process Technologies for Longer Periods of Time.
AMD Unsure About Transition Timeframe to 20nm Node
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/201212131702...
Quote:
....Earlier this year we have brought our GPU products to 28nm. You will see [Kabini and Temash] APUs in the first half of next year on the 28nm. […] We have not said when we are going to 20nm, which would be the next node,” said Ruth Cotter, vice president of investor relations at the Raymond James conference.

they also have not said when when kaveri will come out :whistle: 
a b à CPUs
December 14, 2012 12:02:04 PM

^ My take is that (1) AMD doesn't have the money to move the next-gen CPUs to 20nm or lower, as presumably they would have to pay extra, and (2) AMD doesn't have a lot of confidence that GF and/or TSMC is gonna get to the next node when they say they are.

Also, didn't AMD recently state something about being able to realize almost a node's worth of power savings merely by using a high-density macro library? If that is true, then they could achieve good results entirely in-house and avoid paying for the next node. Let the rich cellphone customers pay for TSMC's or GF's R&D at 20nm or 14nm..
a b À AMD
a c 84 à CPUs
December 14, 2012 12:32:09 PM

^^ iirc it was during steamroller's unveiling few months ago. i think amd claimed 30% improvement... in something. people who covered that speculated that high density library won't debut until excavator. now that sr is delayed....
edit: found it here:
http://www.anandtech.com/show/6201/amd-details-its-3rd-...
Quote:
We won’t see these new libraries and automated designs in Steamroller, but rather its successor in 2014: Excavator.
lol
anyway, i'd love to see amd applying design tweaks like these in low power apus and mobile sr first, if possible.
a b à CPUs
December 14, 2012 4:20:41 PM

de5_Roy said:
^^ iirc it was during steamroller's unveiling few months ago. i think amd claimed 30% improvement... in something. people who covered that speculated that high density library won't debut until excavator. now that sr is delayed....
edit: found it here:
http://www.anandtech.com/show/6201/amd-details-its-3rd-...
Quote:
We won’t see these new libraries and automated designs in Steamroller, but rather its successor in 2014: Excavator.
lol
anyway, i'd love to see amd applying design tweaks like these in low power apus and mobile sr first, if possible.


AMD claims a lot of things. I very much doubt 30%, except maybe in one benchmark that gets near perfect CPU scaling.
December 15, 2012 2:38:41 AM

AMD is going to release SR sometime in 2014, right ?
And on 28nm, even with 30% IPC improvement over PD, it cant be competitive with Intel's 14nm.

Only if AMD sells 8core unlocked CPU's at the price of Intel Pentiums, can they make some money.
a b à CPUs
December 15, 2012 3:24:51 AM

mayankleoboy1 said:
AMD is going to release SR sometime in 2014, right ?
And on 28nm, even with 30% IPC improvement over PD, it cant be competitive with Intel's 14nm.

Only if AMD sells 8core unlocked CPU's at the price of Intel Pentiums, can they make some money.


Or, if intel screws themselves over with the integrated RAM and CPUs. LOL! Smaller doesn't mean faster, it just means smaller... But it will be interesting to see the performance increase Intel Gets out of their CPUs due to the smaller die size, I'm hoping that they don't rip us off "If or once AMD goes under." And, we don't even know if that's official. In case you didn't notice, this isn't the "AMD Won't Top Intel" thread, this is the "AMD Steamroller Speculation and Expert Conjecture" thread.
a b à CPUs
December 15, 2012 1:25:09 PM

Hmm, considering the rumour du jour in the Haswell thread, that Intel may buy out nVidia and then make Jen-Hsun "Can o' Whoopas" Huang CEO of the combined firm as Otellini is retiring next year, that would probably ensure AMD's demise..

Imagine a GT 780 or 880 on Intel's 14nm process in 2014, since out of the 3 of them - Intel, TSMC and GF - I would bet Intel most likely to succeed getting to 14nm when they say they will (esp. seeing as how Intel already has working Broadwell CPUs on 14nm, booting into Windows).
December 15, 2012 2:42:16 PM

fazers_on_stun said:
Hmm, considering the rumour du jour in the Haswell thread, that Intel may buy out nVidia and then make Jen-Hsun "Can o' Whoopas" Huang CEO of the combined firm as Otellini is retiring next year, that would probably ensure AMD's demise..

Imagine a GT 780 or 880 on Intel's 14nm process in 2014, since out of the 3 of them - Intel, TSMC and GF - I would bet Intel most likely to succeed getting to 14nm when they say they will (esp. seeing as how Intel already has working Broadwell CPUs on 14nm, booting into Windows).

XD I like that.

Intel is no doubt in the led as far as process goes. They had the best 32nm, and they are the only ones using tri-gates AFAIK, and they are on a secure 22nm, while GF and TMSC are on 32nm and 28nm.

Steamy is planned for 28nm, so that shouldn't be the reason for it's push back to 2014.
a b à CPUs
December 16, 2012 6:21:20 AM

viridiancrystal said:
XD I like that.

Intel is no doubt in the led as far as process goes. They had the best 32nm, and they are the only ones using tri-gates AFAIK, and they are on a secure 22nm, while GF and TMSC are on 32nm and 28nm.

Steamy is planned for 28nm, so that shouldn't be the reason for it's push back to 2014.



Im wondering if AMD got wind of this early. http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-57559079-92/the-pcs-pa...

Would make some sense as AMD would be the only company to release a NEW DT CPU (marketing hype) in 2014.
December 16, 2012 2:43:55 PM

That seems like an okay idea, but why they wouldn't stick to yearly releases and release Exxy when Intel isn't making a desktop update doesn't make much sense. Unless they feel the need to hype that they've been working for years on this processor arch. We all know how well that works out.
a b À AMD
a c 84 à CPUs
December 16, 2012 3:06:12 PM

viridiancrystal said:
That seems like an okay idea, but why they wouldn't stick to yearly releases and release Exxy when Intel isn't making a desktop update doesn't make much sense. Unless they feel the need to hype that they've been working for years on this processor arch. We all know how well that works out.

rumor is that steamroller - as it is now, has not passed some kind of internal evaluation and is deemed unfit to take on haswell. delaying sr should push excavator (if it even comes out) back even further. s/a has published a few articles on why sr was delayed. the rumored 'new' apus in 2013 are called richland - pd cores with gcn igpus. s/a speculated (long before they wrote about steamroller's delay) that trinity might receive an update before sr comes out/gets delayed.
i assume there could be one more reason - sr seems to be tied with glofo and glofo doesn't seem to have a working (afaik, i haven't checked lately) 28nm node.
imo if the current sr arch won't come out, amd might design something else and call that steamroller, for example - jaguar cores tweaked for performance use.
a b à CPUs
December 16, 2012 3:48:10 PM

Oh yeah since we all GF knows what their doing, Amd stays with them because of their great track record i'm sure.

I'm probably going to say SR will be delayed over performance issues just like BD was. Amd doesn't like history i guess since if they even looked back 2 years they will notice they keep doing the same mistakes over and over again.
a b à CPUs
December 16, 2012 4:12:24 PM

viridiancrystal said:
That seems like an okay idea, but why they wouldn't stick to yearly releases and release Exxy when Intel isn't making a desktop update doesn't make much sense. Unless they feel the need to hype that they've been working for years on this processor arch. We all know how well that works out.

the thing is all we know is 2014. truthfully, that could be as little as 3 months from their normal schedule.
December 16, 2012 10:00:08 PM

Does anyone know the wattage of the 7660d in trinity?
December 17, 2012 5:15:18 AM

A generation of AMD GPU's built on intels 22nm process would kill Nvidia for a generation atleast.
December 17, 2012 1:15:35 PM

Looks like PileDriver may be the last "big" desktop chip.
a b à CPUs
December 18, 2012 11:32:58 PM

viridiancrystal said:


Steamy is planned for 28nm, so that shouldn't be the reason for it's push back to 2014.


The analysts expected an 18 month cycle to switch from GFlo to TSMC.

http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4230857/Opinion...

I don't think they'll ever recoup the money they gave away to switch process. With the penalties, broken contracts, and a 18 month delay on top.

Whomever at TSMC convinced AMD to switch must be getting some huge kickbacks. You'll probably see some high level AMD exec(s) go to TSMC next year.

a b à CPUs
December 19, 2012 1:42:56 PM

Cazalan said:
The analysts expected an 18 month cycle to switch from GFlo to TSMC.

http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4230857/Opinion...

I don't think they'll ever recoup the money they gave away to switch process. With the penalties, broken contracts, and a 18 month delay on top.

Whomever at TSMC convinced AMD to switch must be getting some huge kickbacks. You'll probably see some high level AMD exec(s) go to TSMC next year.


Hmm, that article is from 13 months ago, so I dunno if still relevant or not. But it is true AMD is paying an arm + leg to GF to get out from under.
a b à CPUs
December 19, 2012 3:03:41 PM

fazers_on_stun said:
Hmm, that article is from 13 months ago, so I dunno if still relevant or not. But it is true AMD is paying an arm + leg to GF to get out from under.


The divorce looks to have started sometime in Q1 2012 when the wafer contract was renegotiated and ended with a $700 mil charge.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/03/05/amd...

The 18 month was speculation and probably didn't account for the serious layoffs.
a b à CPUs
December 21, 2012 12:43:59 PM

Advanced Micro Devices Is Already Inside A 4G Tablet And Nobody Has Noticed

Not exactly Steamy news :p  but still good news for AMD, according to one "analyst" with suspect spelling:

Quote:
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has been battered of late, with some believing it will go bankrupt in due coarse. Plenty of older articles on Seeking Alpha were bullish but many have stopped being bulls given the dire situation of the PC market. However, we believe there is a resurgence of PC sales bubbling from under the ashes. This resurgence will bring back a market where AMD, like Intel (INTC) and Nvidia (NVDA), get more than three fourths of their revenue. This resurgence of PCs will be tablet lead. Wait, did we say the tablet? Isn't that what will finally kill the laptop? Didn't you already see the commemoration funeral in Barron's months back? No we are not mad, let us introduce the Fujitsu Stylistic-Q572, which is available now.

Technically, the tablet is the new PC and AMD is already in one. We were surprised to find AMD with a tablet design win in the Fujitsu Stylistic-Q572; it was spotted with an AMD Hondo (Z-60) chip. The Stylistic even includes cellular 4G broadband access. In that version, it is AMD's first ever cellular tablet design win.

According to Fujitsu it is:

"The ideal lightweight 25.7 cm (10.1-inch) tablet PC for mobile professionals in business, government and SME. With pen and finger support, the slim 820 g device provides perfect flexibility to accomplish your daily tasks."

Certainly looks very desirable. AMD, unlike rivals Qualcom (QCOM), Nvidia and Intel, is the only x86 CPU designer which does not provide baseband chips at all. Thus, it would have likely increased the total cost to the provider to use an AMD chip unless AMD gave them a good discount. This will be a very low cost and similar low margin sale. But it is a sale, and this is important even if only a million units are sold.

Present Revenue Is Important - Isn't Low Margin Bad?

Low margin is not bad, as long as it is free cash flow generating in the case of a company like AMD. When AMD is trading below a $1.7 billion market value, with 2012 revenues between $5.5-6 billion and a P/S less than 0.3, it is hard to rate it a sell. This low valuation has made many professional investment bank analysts to adjust their ratings. They now agree with us. AMD is a weak buy if you take an average of the analyst calls according to Nasdaq.
December 21, 2012 1:48:51 PM

Hondo will be 40nm, right ? So power/performance should be around 40nm A9 chips. Which were a generation old.
a b à CPUs
December 21, 2012 7:12:48 PM

mayankleoboy1 said:
Hondo will be 40nm, right ? So power/performance should be around 40nm A9 chips. Which were a generation old.


From Softpedia:

Quote:
Much like the Z-01 accelerated processing unit that it’s designated to replace, Hondo will also use the Bobcat CPU core, which will be paired with a DirectX 11 capable onboard GPU.

According to AMD, Hondo APUs can include either one or two x86 computing cores and will be built on the 40nm node, while its TDP is estimated at a rather low 4.5W.

This is a significant improvement when compared to the 5.9W TDP of Desna, and should help tablets powered by AMD’s next-gen Z-series accelerated processing units to deliver even better battery life.

Going forward, AnandTech revealed that AMD wants to get into the sub-2W market with a new APU design, most probably based on the 2013 Tamesh processor, which will be AMD’s first tablet APU to use a true system-on-a-chip (SoC) design.


I think Temash is the 28nm CPU.
December 21, 2012 7:42:06 PM

fazers_on_stun said:
From Softpedia:

Quote:
Much like the Z-01 accelerated processing unit that it’s designated to replace, Hondo will also use the Bobcat CPU core, which will be paired with a DirectX 11 capable onboard GPU.

According to AMD, Hondo APUs can include either one or two x86 computing cores and will be built on the 40nm node, while its TDP is estimated at a rather low 4.5W.

This is a significant improvement when compared to the 5.9W TDP of Desna, and should help tablets powered by AMD’s next-gen Z-series accelerated processing units to deliver even better battery life.

Going forward, AnandTech revealed that AMD wants to get into the sub-2W market with a new APU design, most probably based on the 2013 Tamesh processor, which will be AMD’s first tablet APU to use a true system-on-a-chip (SoC) design.


I think Temash is the 28nm CPU.

well according to this

Temash will be using GCN, which would imply 28nm.
a b à CPUs
December 21, 2012 8:04:59 PM

Quote:
This resurgence of PCs will be tablet lead. Wait, did we say the tablet? Isn't that what will finally kill the laptop?


Maybe I'm alone on this but I feel like tablets will ultimately exist *along side of* laptops and desktops. Wasn't it only a few years ago laptops where supposed to destroy and replace the entire desktop market?
a b À AMD
a b à CPUs
December 21, 2012 10:34:26 PM

anxiousinfusion said:
Quote:
This resurgence of PCs will be tablet lead. Wait, did we say the tablet? Isn't that what will finally kill the laptop?


Maybe I'm alone on this but I feel like tablets will ultimately exist *along side of* laptops and desktops. Wasn't it only a few years ago laptops where supposed to destroy and replace the entire desktop market?

people were saying PDAs would kill desktops a bit more than 10 years ago
a b à CPUs
December 21, 2012 10:58:16 PM

anxiousinfusion said:
Quote:
This resurgence of PCs will be tablet lead. Wait, did we say the tablet? Isn't that what will finally kill the laptop?


Maybe I'm alone on this but I feel like tablets will ultimately exist *along side of* laptops and desktops. Wasn't it only a few years ago laptops where supposed to destroy and replace the entire desktop market?


I think the consensus is that tablets (& smartphones) are for media consumption, desktops (and laptops) are for content creation. Or something like that :D .

Personally I am 90% consumption at home, and unfortunately 90% creation at work. The first is called entertainment and the second, "work" :p .
a b à CPUs
December 22, 2012 12:39:09 AM

anxiousinfusion said:
Quote:
This resurgence of PCs will be tablet lead. Wait, did we say the tablet? Isn't that what will finally kill the laptop?


Maybe I'm alone on this but I feel like tablets will ultimately exist *along side of* laptops and desktops. Wasn't it only a few years ago laptops where supposed to destroy and replace the entire desktop market?


Mobile will never really obsolete the stand alone or mainframe based architecture, simply due to performance/storage/battery reasons. I do see the number of form factors shrinking a bit though; netbooks are basically obsoleted by tablets, and I suspect laptops aren't long before they also go. I basically see three tiers: Smartphone, Tablet, and Desktop.
December 22, 2012 2:33:03 AM

Performance/power is definitely going to improve in the coming years.
Its the battery that has not really improved in the quite some time. Almost every week we hear news about some revolutionary battery tech. But when will it become production ready?
a b à CPUs
December 22, 2012 1:45:15 PM

mayankleoboy1 said:
Performance/power is definitely going to improve in the coming years.
Its the battery that has not really improved in the quite some time. Almost every week we hear news about some revolutionary battery tech. But when will it become production ready?


Geez, hafta agree with you there. For the last 10 years every other battery news story has been "nanotube this" or "nanotube that". So where are all them dang nanotubes improving my battery life by 100%??

Too bad cold fusion never panned out - just think, a 10ml supply of heavy water would power your laptop continously for 20 years :p ..

The world doesn't have an energy crisis - it has an energy density crisis. Unfortunately fossil fuels are still the most dense form of energy, short of nuclear of course.
December 24, 2012 7:24:31 AM

Quote:
the only thing that makes things impossible is believing that the impossible is in fact impossible and never trying.


Intel believes that they can make trouble free 14nm fabrication tech, such that thermals will be under control. :whistle: 

December 24, 2012 7:32:47 AM

edited.
a b à CPUs
December 24, 2012 8:33:44 AM

mayankleoboy1 said:
Intel believes that they can make trouble free 14nm fabrication tech, such that thermals will be under control. :whistle: 

sure, just have to adjust things to make it feasable. :o 

the problem lies in making the possible into practical. The question remains at what point is 14nm practical or just simply possible, 6+ghz, 200+ watts is possible just requires LN2. Its not practical. You could add a phase change cooling tower, adding power consumption, but that defeats the purpose of reducing power in the first place.

I guess one thing that is impossible is having enough time to see the impossible become possible. I will likely never see humans travel out of our solar system.
December 24, 2012 8:57:08 AM

mayankleoboy1 said:
Intel believes that they can make trouble free 14nm fabrication tech, such that thermals will be under control. :whistle: 


:lol:  :lol:  :lol: 
a b à CPUs
December 24, 2012 9:21:38 AM

Chad Boga said:
:lol:  :lol:  :lol: 

lol, there he is ... so how fast is that 57W broadwell part? Think we will see DT speeds? Should be interesting.
December 24, 2012 11:05:12 PM

Well we can read about how cold fusion, although it has already been done, cannot be done because modern science doesn't understand how it can be done and therefore can't be done or we can let gamerk316 tell us about how a computer program cannot use more than 4 cores because programmers don't understand how it can be done, yet.

I don't have any news or speculation on Steamroller right, maybe we should ask Rory Reed to come here and tell us how all that is going. What do you say, Mr. Reed, are there any engineers working on that still?
December 25, 2012 12:57:20 AM

Perhaps we can add a comma after AMD in the thread title. That opens up a little more room for discussion.
December 25, 2012 8:45:33 PM

R0ck3tm4n said:
Well we can read about how cold fusion, although it has already been done, cannot be done because modern science doesn't understand how it can be done and therefore can't be done or we can let gamerk316 tell us about how a computer program cannot use more than 4 cores because programmers don't understand how it can be done, yet.

I don't have any news or speculation on Steamroller right, maybe we should ask Rory Reed to come here and tell us how all that is going. What do you say, Mr. Reed, are there any engineers working on that still?



Yeah, and while you're checking on that Mr. Reed, make sure to tell the engineers that it has to be faster per core than at least Sandy Bridge (because it will be priced a little lower than Haswell, it doesn't have to equal or surpass that generation, but that would be a very pleasant surprise), stock clock at 4.2, turbo to 4.7, TDP can stay at 125W but under load it shouldn't increase the power draw 5-fold; and better execution of the "modules" working in harmony so that it is nearly the same as a true octocore.

In all seriousness, I am actually hoping they somehow pull something good out of their hats; if AMD had a serious competitor to SB-E or whatever IB-E is going to be, in the "budget" (i.e. - non-2011 socket Xeon) workstation arena, I would consider opting for it, even if it was slightly less performance, but the price was right.
a b à CPUs
December 27, 2012 4:39:45 PM

"The expected launch date is June, but the production should be ready by late March 2013".

That's for Richland, so GF should have working ES around, right? Maybe we'll see them at CES.

Cheers!
a b à CPUs
December 27, 2012 6:58:56 PM

de5_Roy said:

28nm :o . mind. boggled. glofo has their 28nm node ready?!?! :whistle: 

Better hope so!
Otherwise AMD will be so behind I will just facepalm.
Also why is is there no 28nm AM3+ part?
Saddens me to wait even longer for a CPU upgrade.
a b à CPUs
December 27, 2012 8:42:46 PM

amdfangirl said:
Better hope so!
Otherwise AMD will be so behind I will just facepalm.
Also why is is there no 28nm AM3+ part?
Saddens me to wait even longer for a CPU upgrade.


Steamroller got delayed to 2014 I thought. That's why no AM3+.

They're focusing on mobile now.
a b à CPUs
December 28, 2012 1:49:39 AM

R0ck3tm4n said:
Well we can read about how cold fusion, although it has already been done, cannot be done because modern science doesn't understand how it can be done and therefore can't be done


ALLEGEDLY done, in one experiment, that was never reproduced by anyone, let alone the people who actually RAN it the first time.


Quote:
or we can let gamerk316 tell us about how a computer program cannot use more than 4 cores because programmers don't understand how it can be done, yet.


A+B=C;
C+D=E;
E+F=G;

Guess what? I can't make that parallel, ever.

Secondly, programs typically do make use of all processor assets, but most of those threads don't do any meaningful work, so they don't show up in Task Manager. You still end up with 2-3 threads that do the majority of the work, and all the smaller tasks get offloaded to other cores. So you get the typical two cores >50%, and the rest hovering well below that. You are NEVER going to see equal work across cores, except in very rare cases where the algorithm in question scales naturally.

OpenMP will help optimize the low hanging fruit (FOR loops being a prime example) but you won't see any significant change in core usage going forward. Though I'm sure the next generation of consoles will be blamed for that too...
    • First
    • Previous
    • 10 / 329
    • 11
    • 12
    • 13
    • 14
    • More pages
    • Next
    • Newest
!