aaron2504

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ok im abit of an intel fan. but why on earth are intel alowing amd to walk all over them? i think intel is being stubbern. As AMD develops new platform, new Architectures . improve the cores alot. while intel simply sit back and use the old NetBurst architecture and just adding cache ect. Why is intel doing this? i think its time intel needs to wake up to the world!
 

aaron2504

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dont u think its time intel came up with a new acritecture. not the netburst and not pentium M stuff ( p3 core) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
 
indeed. I want a Pentium 5, 64bit enabled, hyperthreading, thermal throttling, 5+ Ghz, etc...

Whos knows what the bafoons at Intel are up to. Although, it looks like they arnt up to much!

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aaron2504

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thats exactly what im talking about just little improvements for the old stuff , instead of scraping the cr@p stuff and getting a new acr , they just do little improvements over the years! and now they wounder why amd are starting to take over
 

DonnieDarko

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too be honost, amd didn't really develope new architecture. They just using 64bit extensions. They are still using .13 processing. I think intel is stepping forward, it's just not working out great. I am and always will be a big amd fan. I like the underdog. :)

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Obtuse

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But that's what he's saying. Intel could turn into the underdog. Although I think it would a lot more time, some serious market shifts, and a lot of blunders on Intel's part.

"If I owned this place and hell, I'd rent out this place and live in hell" - Toombs
 

P4Man

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> Intel could turn into the underdog

Depends how you define underdog. In marketshare and revenue, it will not become the underdog for the foreseeable future, no matter how hard intel screws up. AMD just doesnt have the capacity to supply more than ~25% of the market. Maybe when FAB36 comes online, AMD could supply more, but even then Intel will still undercut AMD to sell enough chips to keep all its fabs more or less busy. Intel has more fab capacity than god, and having them iddle costs a bunch of money. AMD won't complain and gladly settle for selling fewer, but higher margin chips.

When it comes to x86 performance and cpu design, I'd say intel already is the underdog. They are still world class at process engineering, and lots of other things (chipsets, compilers designing interfaces like PCI, AGP, USB, PCI-E, ..), but CPU core design ? Nah, AMD has the better team.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
 

Xeon

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When it comes to x86 performance and cpu design, I'd say intel already is the underdog.
Hmm Pentium M's.

Xeon

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P4Man

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>Hmm Pentium M's.

A nice example of excellent process engineering, and usefull recycling of a 10 year old core, which I already said, was the best core they ever designed. Maybe even the only truly great core in 25 years.

But however nice Pentium M is, it is not an advanced high performance part, at least not anymore, and not yet, and it remains to be seen if further process engineering miracles can turn it into one again. It won't happen this year though, and probably not even next year. By 2006, it will be competing against the K9, so all bets are off anyhow.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
 

Xeon

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excellent process engineering
Yes it is.

recycling of a 10 year old core
I hear that soo much but no one ever provides a link from Intel saying hey we suck we just redid the P3.

It won't happen this year though, and probably not even next year.
Oh we got ourselves a wager.

Xeon

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aaron2504

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yeh but i think its time intel started devloped a new core. more and more amd fans are coming around these days. I think the way intel needs to get more fanboys is to, design a core that would beat AMD at games! Could T&L units be intergrated into a CPU core?
 

P4Man

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>I hear that soo much

because its true. It just is a reworked P3 core, which by itselve is an enhanced PPro. they just slapped on a P4 bus interface, added SSE2 and a larger cache, and did some minor tweaks, most of which related to saving power. And obviously they produce the chip on a process aggressively geared for low power. The core itselve is nearly unchanged, just compare the die pictures, it looks like a perfect copy/paste.

>but no one ever provides a link from Intel saying hey we
>suck we just redid the P3.

Now that is suprising really.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
 

darko21

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Re: Depends how you define underdog. In marketshare and revenue, it will not become the underdog for the foreseeable future, no matter how hard intel screws up. AMD just doesnt have the capacity to supply more than ~25% of the market. Maybe when FAB36 comes online, AMD could supply more, but even then Intel will still undercut AMD to sell enough chips to keep all its fabs more or less busy. Intel has more fab capacity than god, and having them iddle costs a bunch of money. AMD won't complain and gladly settle for selling fewer, but higher margin chips.
Depends how you define underdog. In marketshare and revenue, it will not become the underdog for the foreseeable future, no matter how hard intel screws up. AMD just doesnt have the capacity to supply more than ~25% of the market. Maybe when FAB36 comes online, AMD could supply more, but even then Intel will still undercut AMD to sell enough chips to keep all its fabs more or less busy. Intel has more fab capacity than god, and having them iddle costs a bunch of money. AMD won't complain and gladly settle for selling fewer, but higher margin chips.


You left out the possibility of outsourcing. It has often been wonderd if the (NDA) x86 cross licencing agreement with Intel prevented AMD from outsourcing it's chips. From this recent inteview Merrill Lynch had with AMD I am assuming AMD can outsource and IBM has the extra capacity. If AMD does outsouce some manufacturing to someone like IBM, market share could grow by more than 25% the 90nm shrink (now under way) on 200mm waffers will allow fab 30 more volume and of course fab 36 I think it's expected to start in mid 2005 @ 65nm on 300mm waffers will increase volume substantialy. although fab36 wont be in full swing till early 2006.




Merrill Lynch Comment United States
Semiconductors 17 June 2004
Joseph Osha Advanced Micro Devices
We chat with Hector
NEUTRAL Volatility Risk:
HIGH Reason for Report: Company Update


Fab 36 on schedule; AMD raises the possibility
of an outsourcing deal
The construction of AMD’s Fab 36, the company’s first
300mm wafer fab, continues on schedule. Fab equipment
should begin to install in Q4 this year, and commercial
wafer shipments should begin in early 2006. AMD plans to
provide self-financing of more than $700 million with cash
flow from operations.
Interestingly, Hector suggested that there is a reasonable
possibility that AMD will try to sign a deal for outsourced
microprocessor manufacturing prior to the ramp of Fab 36.
We had assumed that an outsourcing deal was off the table
following AMD’s decision to build Fab 36, and the
company had not said much about outsourcing recently.
We don’t know who AMD is talking to, although IBM is
the most likely and most logical candidate. The fact that
AMD is talking about outsourcing again would seem to
reflect AMD’s understanding that it can’t wait until 2006
for 300mm manufacturing.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
 

P4Man

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>You left out the possibility of outsourcing. It has often
>been wonderd if the (NDA) x86 cross licencing agreement
>with Intel prevented AMD from outsourcing it's chips.

I've read on some places AMD would not have been allowed to outsource more than 25% of its production. Wether that is true, or still true, I have no idea.

But frankly, I don't think outsourcing is such a great idea. besides AMD, Intel and IBM, I don't see anyone with such an advanced process. IBM could be possible, especially at the 65nm node (since they use the same process then), but at 65nm, I would guess FAB36 has plenty of capacity.

No, the reason I brought up fab capacity is not so much AMD would lack it, but intel just has too much. Therefore, it will undercut prices on AMD if that is what it takes to keep those fabs busy. Remember the Xbox deal ? Same thing. Its always better to sell some of your chips at nearly material cost, than have a multibillion dollar fab iddle. That is basically the point of intels flash business as well, even though its loss generating, those losses are cheaper than iddling fabs.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
 

darko21

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Re: I've read on some places AMD would not have been allowed to outsource more than 25% of its production. Wether that is true, or still true, I have no idea.


Yeah it's NDA so no one knows if it's limited and by how much but it's looking like its allowed and that is a positive for a market share gain possibility.

Re: But frankly, I don't think outsourcing is such a great idea. besides AMD, Intel and IBM, I don't see anyone with such an advanced process. IBM could be possible, especially at the 65nm node (since they use the same process then), but at 65nm, I would guess FAB36 has plenty of capacity.

If there is extra demand for a64 opteron it sounds like a good idea to me. I would not expect 65nm any time soon though. I would guess they would outsource the k8 at 90nm and if they did it would most likley be with IBM. Fab 36 wont be pushing out samples until at least a year from now.

Re: No, the reason I brought up fab capacity is not so much AMD would lack it, but intel just has too much. Therefore, it will undercut prices on AMD if that is what it takes to keep those fabs busy. Remember the Xbox deal ? Same thing. Its always better to sell some of your chips at nearly material cost, than have a multibillion dollar fab iddle. That is basically the point of intels flash business as well, even though its loss generating, those losses are cheaper than iddling fabs.

Yup intel has tons of fab capacity. However lots of inventory build up as well which might sugest yeilds are worse then they are letting on. The p4 at 90nm aka prescott does appear to have serious issues. I think intel now has 4 90nm fabs running but we are not seeing too many p4's over 3.2 giz (that thermal brick wall) lots of paper releases but no high or very little high mhz cpu's. now IF and it's just a big if most 90nm p4's are comming in at a 2.4 giz rating it could or should open bigger demand for a64. As to intels nor flash generating a loss intel just guided second quarter earning up and they said it was do mainly to flash. Personally I don't see the nor flash industry as very bright for intel. While intel has stated it plans to up capacity its limminted to low density flash 16 32 mbyte. they need mirror bit inorder to get the density up and they are not getting that. AMD spansion is #1 in nor flash intel a close second and I don't see intel threatning them in the flash buiness any time soon.

With cpu demand expected to grow 27% and intel having highend production issues it would be nice if amd 90 nm preforms well and they out sourced now to IBM in order to get volume up for the forth quarter when hopefully windows 64 bit will be out although should only be a server version to start.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
 

castle

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I agree most of your comments about CPU but the flash part is just simply wrong.

>> As to intels nor flash generating a loss intel just guided second quarter earning up and they said it was do mainly to flash.

Intel Flash is having a record high sale quarter right now. In fact Flash is breaking even or making money. We will see in next month.

>> Personally I don't see the nor flash industry as very bright for intel. While intel has stated it plans to up capacity its limminted to low density flash 16 32 mbyte. they need mirror bit inorder to get the density up and they are not getting that. AMD spansion is #1 in nor flash intel a close second and I don't see intel threatning them in the flash buiness any time soon

For multi bit storage flash, AMD and Intel are using very different approach. AMD stores two bits physically in different location on each floating gate, while Intel stores two bits on same location but differentiates 4 states by voltage (ie, # of electrons). Therefore, Intel's technology is far suprior because the density is much higher. AMD makes a lot of noise about their Mirror Bit, but not many people heard of Intel's, but in fact, in terms of multi bit storage, Intel has >90% of the market.
Intel is making 128M and higher density NOR. 90nm NOR flash has been announced. In addition, Intel has a new trick of stacking multiple flash die to increase the overall density while keep same device footprint. AMD is still doing 0.15 (.11 has not started) and doesnot do stacking. In NOR area, AMD is no competition in terms of technology. The real competition for Intel Flash is from NAND companies, more specifically from Sumsung.
 

darko21

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Re: I agree most of your comments about CPU but the flash part is just simply wrong.
Well lets find out.


Re: Intel Flash is having a record high sale quarter right now. In fact Flash is breaking even or making money. We will see in next month.
I think you just misread what I said. I was stating that Intel has guided higher for second quarter and the are crediting that to flash.


Re: For multi bit storage flash, AMD and Intel are using very different approach. AMD stores two bits physically in different location on each floating gate, while Intel stores two bits on same location but differentiates 4 states by voltage (ie, # of electrons). Therefore, Intel's technology is far suprior because the density is much higher.

I'm not an expert on flash. as a matter of fact I'm pretty new to understanding how it works. But I have yet to read anything on Intels nor flash being better than mirrorbit as a matter of fact exactly the oposite. Are you sure you are not confusing nand flash? Look what Samsung I believe they are a leader in nand flash had to say about nor flash (mirrorbit)

"SAMSUNG Electronics is very pleased with Spansion's focus on customer needs in the development of second-generation MirrorBit technology," said KS Hyun, vice president of telecommunication networks at SAMSUNG Electronics. "Spansion's new technology provides exactly the kind of price-performance needed for us to continue delivering many of the industry's most innovative and unique mobile phones."
Because they retain their data even after the power is switched off, Flash memory devices enable mobile phones to handle on-the-fly software upgrades, extensive personalization, and highly flexible application and data storage. MirrorBit technology is a next-generation Flash memory technology that doubles the density of traditional Flash memory products by storing two separate pieces of information in a single memory cell. Spansion is the world's leading producer of NOR Flash memory according to industry analyst firms including iSuppli, Gartner and IC Insights.

"ARM recognizes that a high-performance memory subsystem, enabled by innovations like second-generation MirrorBit technology, is critical to maximizing the potential of an ARM processor-based phone design," said Oliver Gunasekara, director, Wireless at ARM. "Spansion's new technology was clearly designed with customer needs in mind."

"TI baseband chipsets and OMAP application processors, like Spansion's second-generation MirrorBit technology, are designed to enable a broad spectrum of feature-rich mobile phones and PDAs," said Loic Hamon, worldwide marketing manager for 2.5G cellular systems at Texas Instruments. "Together, TI chipsets and Spansion memory can enable higher phone performance, longer battery life and better cost structure for our mutual customers."



Re: AMD makes a lot of noise about their Mirror Bit, but not many people heard of Intel's, but in fact, in terms of multi bit storage, Intel has >90% of the market.

Well not in the nor flash market Intel is now #2 just behind AMD spansion



Re: Intel is making 128M and higher density NOR. 90nm NOR flash has been announced.

90nm has been announced? Like their dual core cpu's. AMD is shipping 110 right now and will be shipping 90nm late this year (I believe) I am sure intel will have 90 nm nor flash and I have not seen there road map on it. Intel only ships 130nm afaik.



Re: In addition, Intel has a new trick of stacking multiple flash die to increase the overall density while keep same device footprint. AMD is still doing 0.15 (.11 has not started) and doesnot do stacking. In NOR area,

No! AMD had 130 and is now shipping 110 and should be @ 90 by years end. I believe Intel is still 130 they might have dropped to 90 but I doubt it. I believe AMD will be first to 90nm flash. although I am not certain of this but I would like to see a link if I am to believe Intel will be shipping 90nm flash shortly.


Re: AMD is no competition in terms of technology.

I disagree I have read a few analysts who have said mirrorbit is the future of nor flash


Re: The real competition for Intel Flash is from NAND companies, more specifically from Sumsung.

Samsung really likes mirrorbit see above. As a matter of fact with a statment like that you might be inclined to think Samsung might join AMD Fujitsu mirrorbit.


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040614/146132_1.html


If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
 

castle

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>> Well not in the nor flash market Intel is now #2 just behind AMD spansion

I said in terms of MLC market share, Intel has >90%. It is true that in SLC, Intel is currently behind Spansion, not behind AMD. Well, you may say Spansion = AMD flash. I won't argue with you on that.


>> 90nm has been announced? Like their dual core cpu's. AMD is shipping 110 right now and will be shipping 90nm late this year (I believe) I am sure intel will have 90 nm nor flash and I have not seen there road map on it. Intel only ships 130nm afaik.

AMD has not been shipping 0.11, and 0.09 will no way be shipped by the end of next year. This is indicated in the same webpage you are referring (look at the cautionary statement part). And also I know it as a fact.


>> No! AMD had 130 and is now shipping 110 and should be @ 90 by years end. I believe Intel is still 130 they might have dropped to 90 but I doubt it. I believe AMD will be first to 90nm flash. although I am not certain of this but I would like to see a link if I am to believe Intel will be shipping 90nm flash shortly.

Intel announced 0.09u Flash in IDF this year. Feb or March time frame.


>> I disagree I have read a few analysts who have said mirrorbit is the future of nor flash

You fully trust the analysts? Do they know technology? Do they even know the market? Did any of them foresee the huge downtown in 2000?

>> Samsung really likes mirrorbit see above. As a matter of fact with a statment like that you might be inclined to think Samsung might join AMD Fujitsu mirrorbit.

Frankly I donot give a [-peep-] about anything in AMD's own webpage. What else do you expect to see?
 

darko21

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I said in terms of MLC market share, Intel has >90%. It is true that in SLC, Intel is currently behind Spansion, not behind AMD. Well, you may say Spansion = AMD flash. I won't argue with you on that.

Not really sure what MLC stands for or means but I'd love to see a link on it and intels market share. Do you have a link on that or did you read about it in a book. Yes we both know what spansion means I do believe AMD has the larger interest so sales will go on AMD's books and instead of being competitors AMD and Fujitsu are partners in nor flash.


AMD has not been shipping 0.11, and 0.09 will no way be shipped by the end of next year. This is indicated in the same webpage you are referring (look at the cautionary statement part). And also I know it as a fact.

All companies have that cautionary statment about possible things that might go wrong. Did you see that statment when intel announced 90nm nor flash. and where is that link BTW? You said earlier "AMD is still doing 0.15 (.11 has not started)" and I call BS

SUNNYVALE, CA -- May 18, 2004 --Spansion, the world’s leading producer of NOR Flash memory, today announced it has started volume production of two additional Flash memory families based on 110-nanometer floating-gate technology. The new products are being introduced to satisfy AMD (NYSE: AMD) and Fujitsu (TSE: 6702) customer demand for immediate price-performance improvement in existing wireless designs
http://www.amd.com/us-en/Corporate/VirtualPressRoom/0,,51_104_543~85279,00.html


Monday June 14, 10:00 pm ET
Spansion is accelerating the migration of its S29GL512N NOR Flash memory product to 110-nanometer second-generation MirrorBit technology. This industry-leading product, which first sampled in September 2003 will leverage Spansion's accelerated technology ramp to enable ((VOLUME)) production in the third quarter using 110nm second-generation MirrorBit technology.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040614/146132_1.html


So no it does not appear all spansion flash is at 110 but considering certain flash families were producing in volume 1 month ago and more nor flash families are expected to be in volume production in the third quarter on 110. Third quarter is only a couple of weeks away. I'd imagine they are shiping some flash @ 110 now, 130 is mature flash for them where did you get the amd uses 150nm flash anyway.


You fully trust the analysts? Do they know technology? Do they even know the market? Did any of them foresee the huge downtown in 2000?

No but they have ways of getting data like
"Spansion is the world's leading producer of NOR Flash memory according to industry analyst firms including iSuppli, Gartner and IC Insights."
That kind of data is harder to get. I usually go by press release and form my own opinion. I know intel was questioned about being #2 and they replied they were not #2 but aknowleged they did need to do better. It's quite close right now so depending how one plays the numbers you could argue a different conclusion. I also know this. AMD has been executing flawlessly for a while now so if they say they are producing 110nm flash I believe it. However intel producing 90nm flash well for all we know it's like that p4@3.8 giz they anounced. Where is that link anyway?


Intel announced 0.09u Flash in IDF this year. Feb or March time frame.
Ok I have seen no info that they have started production. Don't get me wrong I am not calling you a liar but with all the paper releases intel throws around lately I'd like to read about it and draw my own conclusion.


Frankly I donot give a [-peep-] about anything in AMD's own webpage. What else do you expect to see?
No need to get upset and it was in an official press release. I would highly doubt AMD would make that up about Samsung TI and ARM. Just seems like they are big players in flash and really seem to like mirror bit. AMD Fujitsu's patented mirror bit.





If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.