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I just ran accross <A HREF="http://forums.anandtech.com/messageview.cfm?catid=27&threadid=1101996" target="_new">this post </A> on Anand's forum from apparently an intel engineer. Here a few relevant quotes:
I'd like to add one comment on this though; this guy has been working on Itanium, which even though it also dissapates >100W is a huge die. thermal density of Itanium 2 is 0.34W/mm². that is not all that much really. Prescott is going to have a thermal density 3x as high, around or over 1W/mm². To put that in perspective, the core of a nuclear powerplant reaches thermal densities of ~2W/mm². Cooling Itanium may not be much of an issue, especially considering its native loud airconditioned habitat, but I doubt cooling Prescott will be either easy or cheap. If power regulation is an even bigger problem even at 100W (~100A), that is going to get exponentially worse as voltages keep dropping and power consumption keeps increasing; things look not too bright for the medium term future..
= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
In the past power has increased because the industry crammed more and more transistors into a smaller and smaller space. The smaller transistors burned less power as they were shrunk but designers kept adding more of them. So power gradually started to creep up. But more recently power has been increasing at an even faster rate because transistors have gotten so small that they are acting less like switches and more like leaky faucets; essentially they leak power. With each successive generation going forward (0.09um, 0.06um, etc.) it is going to get worse. A specific type of leakage called "gate leakage" increases by 10x with each successive generation. Another type called "subthreshold leakage" increases more slowly with each process shift, but it has a head start over gate leakage and so it's the bigger problem currently (pun unintended).
<b>At 0.25um, leakage wasn't really an issue. At 0.18um, it was a minor annoyance. At 0.13um, it is a serious problem. Going forward at 0.09um, it becomes a dominant contributor to the total chip power. And it will get worse.</b>
For what's it's worth as well, having worked on a 100W+ microprocessor (the Itanium 2), I can speak with experience in saying that <b>the problem with a 100W microprocessor isn't cooling it. It's getting power to it. </b>Changing the numbers slightly to keep the math simple, 100W at 1V is 100 amps. And that requires serious power delivery engineering in order to deliver 100A to a CPU that is constantly changing it's current loading while holding the voltage fixed at 1V. <b>No one is particularly worried about cooling at this stage... it's more how expensive the power regulation systems are going to get going foward. </b>
When I say that cooling is not a problem, I am specifically speaking to cooling a CPU. As far as cooling an entire system in which the parts inside are quite a bit hotter as well, I can agree that this will be a challenge, but it certainly is easier (and cheaper) than trying to design a 100A 1V power delivery system. If anyone thinks that cooling 100W is harder than powering 100W@~1V, I need to introduce them to my world.
I'd like to add one comment on this though; this guy has been working on Itanium, which even though it also dissapates >100W is a huge die. thermal density of Itanium 2 is 0.34W/mm². that is not all that much really. Prescott is going to have a thermal density 3x as high, around or over 1W/mm². To put that in perspective, the core of a nuclear powerplant reaches thermal densities of ~2W/mm². Cooling Itanium may not be much of an issue, especially considering its native loud airconditioned habitat, but I doubt cooling Prescott will be either easy or cheap. If power regulation is an even bigger problem even at 100W (~100A), that is going to get exponentially worse as voltages keep dropping and power consumption keeps increasing; things look not too bright for the medium term future..
= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =