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"the probability of God"

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BigMac   04-06-2004 at 10:00:17 AM

Yesterday I heard an announcement on the radio about a new book to be published by <A HREF="http://www.stephenunwin.com" target="_new">Stephen Unwin</A>. Maybe it's out already.

Let me give you the bottom line, as they told it on the radio program:

Mr. Unwin computes the probability that God exists, purely on the basis of scientific data (or so he claims), to be 67%. As he is a christian himself, his personal opinion on the outcome is that he thinks it is on the low side (he had thought it to be around 80%).

The topic and how he is approaching the matter is fascinating enough for me to get myself a copy. Opinions anyone?


BigMac

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eden   04-06-2004 at 03:21:01 PM
- 0 +

Very interesting. To use scientific backup to see if God exists.

Well, kinda reminds me of a funny Simpsons part where Homer uses calculations that are so valid that he proved God does not exist, and shows it to Flanders. He reads it, and finds it's true, and goes to hang himself IIRC. :lol:

Who knows though.

Let's just wait to see DH's reply. I wanna laugh! :wink:

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Reply to eden
ksoth   04-06-2004 at 04:02:53 PM
- 0 +

Jeez, how retarded. I would actually like to read that book, just to see what stuff that guy pulls out of his ass, but don't think I would want to spend the money.

There is no way that his method can be completely scientific. His personal opinions would have to come in play for probably all of his "calculations." 67%? Yeah, right...

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Reply to ksoth
eden   04-06-2004 at 04:52:15 PM
- 0 +

What's funny is how we attack the credibility of someone who is IN the field studying something he likes.

So I suppose we can actually conduct tests on the brain with people other than neurologists or special brain scientists, say, people who work in the tobacco field, huh?

Face it, that argument you all like to use to detract statistics, often don't realize that logically there ain't other people who could conduct them tests if they weren't IN the field itself! In other words, it HAS to sound biased, because it comes from someone IN the field, KNOWING the field and wanting to discover MORE in the field!

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<i>Ede</i>
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Reply to eden
Jake_Barnes   04-06-2004 at 04:56:34 PM
- 0 +

Now Eden, that made no fûcking sense ... that was like installing AOL IM ...



<b> ...more people are driven insane through religious hysteria than by drinking alcohol - W.C. Fields </b>

Reply to Jake_Barnes
eden   04-06-2004 at 04:58:26 PM
- 0 +

Did it?

Or is it because YOU cannot install what AOL chatters can! :tongue:

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<i>Ede</i>
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Reply to eden
Jake_Barnes   04-06-2004 at 05:06:05 PM
- 0 +

Oh, I can install it ... I just can't erase all the evidence once I've realized what I've done ...



<b> ...more people are driven insane through religious hysteria than by drinking alcohol - W.C. Fields </b>

Reply to Jake_Barnes
eden   04-06-2004 at 05:10:33 PM
- 0 +

Admittedly I didn't read your thread yet, so I don't quite know what happened really.

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Reply to eden
Auburn9698   04-06-2004 at 05:10:37 PM
- 0 +

-Sorry, just a quick interruption-

Quote :

often don't realize that logically there <font color=red>ain't</font color=red> other people who could conduct <font color=red>them tests</font color=red>


"Ain't"?!?!
"THEM tests"?!?!?!
OMG....Eden's turning redneck. :eek:

-OK, back to the main topic-

<font color=blue>War</font color=blue> <font color=orange>Eagle</font color=orange>
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Reply to Auburn9698
eden   04-06-2004 at 05:11:49 PM
- 0 +

:eek:

What can I say. Your southern aura has breached my walls of serenity. You've turned me into a Trailer Boi!


"He was a Trailer Boi, she said see you later Boi!" :lol:

--
<i>Ede</i>
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Reply to eden
Jake_Barnes   04-06-2004 at 05:13:24 PM
- 0 +

That was my point ... I've heard better logic in N. Alabama, the Ozarks, etc ...



<b> ...more people are driven insane through religious hysteria than by drinking alcohol - W.C. Fields </b>

Reply to Jake_Barnes
RobD   04-06-2004 at 05:14:00 PM
- 0 +

<i>And the prize for most contrived lyric goes to..........Eden!</i>

Apolgies to BigMac for temporarily hijacking his thread. Sorry man.

<font color=blue>"If Little Red Riding Hood shows up with a bazooka and a bad attitude, I expect you to chin the bitch." - Sean Pertwee</font color=blue>

Reply to RobD
eden   04-06-2004 at 05:17:02 PM
- 0 +

The best excuse I could come up with: Well, I HAVE been known to describe horribly some things I wanna convey. RobD can prolly attest to that. :eek:

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<i>Ede</i>
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Reply to eden
RobD   04-06-2004 at 05:19:59 PM
- 0 +

...*vigourously nods head in complete agreement*...

<font color=blue>"If Little Red Riding Hood shows up with a bazooka and a bad attitude, I expect you to chin the bitch." - Sean Pertwee</font color=blue>

Reply to RobD
eden   04-06-2004 at 05:21:31 PM
- 0 +

At least once in a while I can get a nod of agreement on my side. :smile:

--
<i>Ede</i>
<A HREF="http://www.lochel.com/THGC/album.php" target="_new"><font color=blue><b>More updates and added sites as over <font color=red>62</font color=red> no-lifers have their pics up on THGC's Photo Album! </b></font color=blue></A> :lol:

Reply to eden
Flamethrower205   04-06-2004 at 07:48:44 PM
- 0 +

he doesn't try to hang himself, he tries to destroy the notes!

SEX is like math. Add the bed, subtract the clothes, divide the legs, and hope you dont multiply

Reply to Flamethrower205
phial   04-06-2004 at 11:00:36 PM
- 0 +

how the hell (forgive the pun) can you compute God?


its based on belief , not fact .. altho theres alot of events in the bible that are true, and some of its predictions have come true in such a manner that its almost scary

but really, how can a christian believe in God 80%? isnt that what being a christian is, to believe without questinoing, to put your life in His hands and to have total faith?


edit: put capital G's ;)
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Reply to phial
ironmike   04-06-2004 at 11:15:25 PM
- 0 +

Lets see here Eden , Stephen Unwin verses Homer Simpson . Yep i think i see where all your views are coming from . Glad you can make such tecnical data available to the open public . Does both these individuals ( cough , cough ) have books out ....... :smile:

The man of steel said that

Reply to ironmike
mrface   04-06-2004 at 11:19:46 PM
- 0 +

im gonna agree with you on that phial. its hard to say you believe in something only 80% if you are a true christian, much less the fact that there is a God.

<A HREF="http://www.cameronwilliamson.com" target="_new">-={Apostalic Alcoholic.}=-</A>

Reply to mrface
jammydodger   04-07-2004 at 01:16:10 AM
- 0 +

How can you compute the probability of something existing when you dont even know the nature of that thing?


P4 2.6@3.38
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Reply to jammydodger
ironmike   04-07-2004 at 01:31:13 AM
- 0 +

Quote :

its based on belief , not fact .. altho theres alot of events in the bible that are true, and some of its predictions have come true in such a manner that its almost scary

but really, how can a christian believe in God 80%? isnt that what being a christian is, to believe without questinoing, to put your life in His hands and to have total faith?


Yes i agree with you , i am a christian and its 100% or nothing . I think what the gentelman is saying ( haven't read the book ) is contemplating the odds .In other words did we come from a ameba cell who split and millions of years latter stood up and started walking , or did we start by a Supream being ( someone greater then ourselves ). In other words which one has the greater odds . As i am a christian i take that road . Look at the odds going the other way and you decide . Then we get into the argument on which way ( a more personal choice ), Budda , Mohammad , Christ , etc. . :wink: .... Yep i chose Christ , as i can see no errors in bible , and direction it points to corresponds more to what i think should be ( love , forgiveness . human kindness , etc. ) . :smile:
Now understand i have not read the book the Eden is talking about , you know the one by a feller called Homer Simpson . That one may enlighten me a bunch . :wink:

The man of steel said that

Reply to ironmike
ironmike   04-07-2004 at 01:35:39 AM
- 0 +

Now Big Mac , which way do you go on creation . I think the prevailing theory now is the big bang which is direct conseption with the Bible . :smile: Just asking , as i know you approch things scientifically .

The man of steel said that

Reply to ironmike
eden   04-07-2004 at 03:15:47 AM
- 0 +

Mike, I pray you know who Homer Simpson is! :eek:

--
<i>Ede</i>
<A HREF="http://www.lochel.com/THGC/album.php" target="_new"><font color=blue><b>More updates and added sites as over <font color=red>62</font color=red> no-lifers have their pics up on THGC's Photo Album! </b></font color=blue></A> :lol:

Reply to eden
phial   04-07-2004 at 04:03:30 AM
- 0 +

Quote :

I think what the gentelman is saying ( haven't read the book ) is contemplating the odds



yes but isnt that kind of like, losing faith.. to consider other possibilities?

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Reply to phial
eden   04-07-2004 at 04:09:11 AM
- 0 +

Possible, but no one said a religious person can't be curious to view scientifically something.

Even though I believe in life after death, I still look for solid proof, even scientifically.

Besides, at 67%, I'd be banking my odds on that high probability than a 43% chance he does not exist.

I'd love to see how he did it though.

--
<i>Ede</i>
<A HREF="http://www.lochel.com/THGC/album.php" target="_new"><font color=blue><b>More updates and added sites as over <font color=red>62</font color=red> no-lifers have their pics up on THGC's Photo Album! </b></font color=blue></A> :lol:

Reply to eden
dhlucke   04-07-2004 at 04:10:04 AM
- 0 +

There is no scientific evidence so there is no way to calculate a probability. There are no observations or variables available to make any stochastic conclusions.

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Reply to dhlucke
eden   04-07-2004 at 04:13:24 AM
- 0 +

^^^

And the player entered the field!

--
<i>Ede</i>
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Reply to eden
dhlucke   04-07-2004 at 04:17:30 AM
- 0 +

Quote :

Face it, that argument you all like to use to detract statistics, often don't realize that logically there ain't other people who could conduct them tests if they weren't IN the field itself! In other words, it HAS to sound biased, because it comes from someone IN the field, KNOWING the field and wanting to discover MORE in the field!



That was a stupid comment. Take a statistics course or ten.

Mathematics is not biased. It is based on data. You can't calculate the odds of getting a full house if you don't even know how many decks of cards you have.

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Reply to dhlucke
dhlucke   04-07-2004 at 04:20:32 AM
- 0 +

Quote :

Besides, at 67%, I'd be banking my odds on that high probability than a 43% chance he does not exist.



You can't add. Get out of this thread before I bitch slap you.

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Reply to dhlucke
mrface   04-07-2004 at 04:23:06 AM
- 0 +

your math sux, that would be 33% jackdart!!!

<A HREF="http://www.cameronwilliamson.com" target="_new">-={Apostalic Alcoholic.}=-</A>

Reply to mrface
eden   04-07-2004 at 04:23:55 AM
- 0 +

OMFG... and I ended with a solid 96% overall in my Math class last year!

Someone hit me...

--
<i>Ede</i>
<A HREF="http://www.lochel.com/THGC/album.php" target="_new"><font color=blue><b>More updates and added sites as over <font color=red>62</font color=red> no-lifers have their pics up on THGC's Photo Album! </b></font color=blue></A> :lol:

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mrface   04-07-2004 at 04:23:55 AM
- 0 +

damn you DH, got to him b4 i did, but i will not delete it, so :tongue: !!!

<A HREF="http://www.cameronwilliamson.com" target="_new">-={Apostalic Alcoholic.}=-</A>

Reply to mrface
Auburn9698   04-07-2004 at 04:29:58 AM
- 0 +

More like 9.6%, I'm guessing.

<font color=blue>War</font color=blue> <font color=orange>Eagle</font color=orange>
"I am not a role model." - Charles Barkley
{FTM}

Reply to Auburn9698
dhlucke   04-07-2004 at 04:30:19 AM
- 0 +

Your math skills are abysmal but I'll post this for the rest of you.

Basic algebra requires that in order for you to calculate the value of a variable you need at least one equation per variable.

The problem, from a mathematical point of view, is that calculating if GOD exists involves only variables.

You have essentially one equation:

"GOD"=Variable, or as it is classically known in ancient literature, x=g.

Being that religion is a based on faith the equation is boolean. It can either be true or false. Thus you have two possible options: g=T or g=F. In reality you have a "I don't know" option as well.

Maybe you and your buddy could quantify the "I don't know" variable.

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Reply to dhlucke
dhlucke   04-07-2004 at 04:36:42 AM
- 0 +

Quote :

The author thinks that earthquakes and floods are more likely to occur in a "godless" universe



From Amazon.com

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ksoth   04-07-2004 at 04:37:57 AM
- 0 +

I was reading some comments on Amazon about it, and someone commented that he uses crap like "earthquakes are more likely to happen in a godless universe" in calculating his probability. It is utterly absurd.

You are totally correct in your mathematical analysis. You need to know about the full deck of cards before you can come to any conclusions. You can estimate, but for all we know he is estimating the deck has only 50 cards when in reality it could have a billion. Way too many unknowns...

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<font color=blue> "Trying is the first step towards failure." </font color=blue>

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dhlucke   04-07-2004 at 04:38:57 AM
- 0 +

We think alike. I posted the quote 2 seconds earlier!

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ksoth   04-07-2004 at 04:38:59 AM
- 0 +

Quote :

The author thinks that earthquakes and floods are more likely to occur in a "godless" universe



Whoa, we posted that same thing at the same exact time. What is the probability that would happen? HAR HAR HAR.

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<font color=blue> "Trying is the first step towards failure." </font color=blue>

Reply to ksoth
ksoth   04-07-2004 at 04:39:27 AM
- 0 +

HOLY GUACAMOLE, it happened again.

-------------------------------------------
<font color=blue> "Trying is the first step towards failure." </font color=blue>

Reply to ksoth
dhlucke   04-07-2004 at 04:39:43 AM
- 0 +

Whoa! We did it again!

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ksoth   04-07-2004 at 04:40:08 AM
- 0 +

AND AGAIN!



-------------------------------------------
<font color=blue> "Trying is the first step towards failure." </font color=blue>

Reply to ksoth
dhlucke   04-07-2004 at 04:40:14 AM
- 0 +

ROFL!! STOP!

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Auburn9698   04-07-2004 at 04:40:56 AM
- 0 +

Hey. You two. Get a room.

<font color=blue>War</font color=blue> <font color=orange>Eagle</font color=orange>
"I am not a role model." - Charles Barkley
{FTM}

Reply to Auburn9698
ksoth   04-07-2004 at 04:41:09 AM
- 0 +

Ok, I'll stop now. This actually got me chuckling a bit. That's a first...

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Reply to ksoth
dhlucke   04-07-2004 at 04:42:03 AM
- 0 +

You have to come and fluff though.

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Auburn9698   04-07-2004 at 04:42:45 AM
- 0 +

BLECHK! I said get a room, not make a porno.

<font color=blue>War</font color=blue> <font color=orange>Eagle</font color=orange>
"I am not a role model." - Charles Barkley
{FTM}

Reply to Auburn9698
dhlucke   04-07-2004 at 04:44:58 AM
- 0 +

It's always fun to debunk "scientists" who mix science and religion.

Funny thing happened the other day. I met a girl who was waiting for marraige. Kinda bit my tongue at the request of my friends but still had a debate.

To make my point I pulled my zipper down and left it like that for over an hour. She wasn't sure if I had it that way before so I told her it had been that way the whole evening. I button my pants, pull them up, put a belt on--I do everything except pull my zipper up. I'm waiting until I turn 30 before I pull it up.

That pissed her off. LOL.

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Reply to dhlucke
ksoth   04-07-2004 at 04:52:32 AM
- 0 +

You know, I am not religious and all, but actually do think if more people waited to have sex until marriage, or atleast in a committed monogomous relationship, things would be a lot better. STD's, abortions, teenage mothers, etc., would all go away. I think too many people are sluts, which is causing a lot of social problems our country sees. Oh well, it's not like that will ever happen.

-------------------------------------------
<font color=blue> "Trying is the first step towards failure." </font color=blue>

Reply to ksoth
mrface   04-07-2004 at 04:56:01 AM
- 0 +

the problem with that is most people want whatever they want now, noone has a sense of pride in "earning" something anymore.

this goes with sex and/or money.

that is why alot of ppl get in to trouble with credit cards. they "have" the money now and can pay it off later, when in all reality, if you saved your money, you would respect things more, cuz you really worked for them(also goes with sex and your partner).

<A HREF="http://www.cameronwilliamson.com" target="_new">-={Apostalic Alcoholic.}=-</A>

Reply to mrface
dhlucke   04-07-2004 at 06:27:45 AM
- 0 +

Religious people that wait until marraige to have sex have a low rate of divorce. However they have a high rate of STDs.

They cheat. That's not good.

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