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More evidence that TiVo is dying

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Anonymous
February 18, 2005 11:47:06 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Today CNBC reported that TiVo added about 700,000 subscribers in the
Christmas quarter, and now have over three million subscribers.

So its sure that TiVo will die any day now. RATS!


--
George Eberhardt
(732)224-8988

More about : evidence tivo dying

February 18, 2005 1:39:54 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 08:47:06 -0500, "George Eberhardt"
<geberhardt@comcast.net> wrote:

>Today CNBC reported that TiVo added about 700,000 subscribers in the
>Christmas quarter, and now have over three million subscribers.
>
>So its sure that TiVo will die any day now. RATS!

Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.

Tivo is still a Dead Company Walking

Sean
Anonymous
February 18, 2005 4:56:57 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

.....and a LOT of cable companies will be hurting too once DirecTV
launches their Spaceway satellites with the MPEG-4 Ka-cluster.When 1500
local channels become available in high definition in 2 years time via
satellite,even Comcast is going to feel the competitive pressure of
that.....while it may not be a TiVo system,it will definitely be
"TiVo-like".
And what is the big deal with VOD anyway?
Hotels and Guest Inns have had this feature for YEARS.......it is hardly
a new idea.
Related resources
Anonymous
February 18, 2005 5:06:44 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <37m9urF4rf8emU1@individual.net>,
"George Eberhardt" <geberhardt@comcast.net> wrote:

> Today CNBC reported that TiVo added about 700,000 subscribers in the
> Christmas quarter, and now have over three million subscribers.
>
> So its sure that TiVo will die any day now. RATS!

Wall Street likes it:

"TiVo shares rose 7.5 percent, in premarket trading after closing
Thursday "
Anonymous
February 18, 2005 5:06:45 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

"Jack Zwick" <jzwick3@mindspring.com> wrote in message
news:jzwick3-4289C2.08064418022005@news1.east.earthlink.net...
> In article <37m9urF4rf8emU1@individual.net>,
> "George Eberhardt" <geberhardt@comcast.net> wrote:
>
> > Today CNBC reported that TiVo added about 700,000 subscribers in the
> > Christmas quarter, and now have over three million subscribers.
> >
> > So its sure that TiVo will die any day now. RATS!
>
> Wall Street likes it:
>

So do I; but I'm waiting to see how Sean can show that this is an important
sign of TiVo's imminent collapse.

--
George Eberhardt
(732)224-8988
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 1:55:00 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

"SAC 441" <SAC441@webtv.net> wrote in message news:6596-421664A9-1064@storefull-3251.bay.webtv.net...
> ....and a LOT of cable companies will be hurting too once DirecTV
> launches their Spaceway satellites with the MPEG-4 Ka-cluster.When 1500
> local channels become available in high definition in 2 years time via
> satellite,even Comcast is going to feel the competitive pressure of
> that.....while it may not be a TiVo system,it will definitely be
> "TiVo-like".
> And what is the big deal with VOD anyway?
> Hotels and Guest Inns have had this feature for YEARS.......it is hardly
> a new idea.
>

Not everyone is predicting a dire future for TiVo.
The Carmel Group is saying TiVo will have 1/3 of the DVR market in 2008...

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/article_display.js...
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 2:15:27 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
>Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
>they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.

Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
something new?

DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
- they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.

The only units with *any* uncertainty is the HD DirecTiVo, but even
there it looks like existing national and spot beams will remain MPEG2
for the foreseeable future.

-MZ, RHCE #806199299900541, ex-CISSP #3762
--
<URL:mailto:megazoneatmegazone.org> Gweep, Discordian, Author, Engineer, me.
"A little nonsense now and then, is relished by the wisest men" 508-755-4098
<URL:http://www.megazone.org/&gt; <URL:http://www.eyrie-productions.com/&gt; Eris
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 2:15:28 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

MegaZone (newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
> >Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
> >they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.
>
> Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
> something new?
>
> DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
> - they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
> systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.

Even if DirecTV dropped TiVo completely and stopped paying TiVo any money,
the loss would not be much in terms of money. TiVo gets anywhere from
$6.95 to $12.95 per month from standalone subscribers, while a DirecTV DVR
subscriber gets them less than $2.00/month.

--
Jeff Rife |
| http://www.nabs.net/Cartoons/ShermansLagoon/OtherWhiteM...
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 2:26:25 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

SAC441@webtv.net (SAC 441) shaped the electrons to say:
>....and a LOT of cable companies will be hurting too once DirecTV
>launches their Spaceway satellites with the MPEG-4 Ka-cluster.When 1500
>local channels become available in high definition in 2 years time via
>satellite,even Comcast is going to feel the competitive pressure of

You do realize that they'll need to get agreements to be able to carry
the locals, and it isn't like any DTV user will have access to that
number of channels - just their own locals, if that. Cable will
almost certainly be offering the same channel lineups of national and
locals in HD - so I really don't see any big competitive advantage in

Those Ka birds are for spot beams. It will allow DirecTV to carry
more locals - but cable is already carrying the locals, or will be.
It isn't some overwhelming advantage to DTV.

DTV also has to deal with the growing demand for broadband - which is
something cable can provide and they can't. (Satellite broadband was
a flop, they tried it - they can't match terestrial speeds, or even
new wireless systems like WiMax.) And they'll have added competition
from IPTV which Verizon, SBC, and BellSouth are all pushing.
Verizon's fiber efforts are the most agressive - Verizon will be able
to offer fiber customers high speed data, full digital cable, IPTV,
voice, etc, over glass - they'll have more bandwidth than the cable
companies.

I'm not slagging DTV, I think they have a good service, but just
lofting four birds and adding Ka HD spot beams isn't going to somehow
make them unbeatable in the market.

> And what is the big deal with VOD anyway?

Ask the people who are making it one of the fastest revenue segments
for the cable market. VOD is popular - it is more than just a coupel
of movies now. There have been entire networks run as VOD - The Anime
Network started out as VOD, and still is in some markets (it is more a
'normal' network in others now). And some of the major name networks
are looking at VOD as a way to offer their shows without advertising.
Want to see Lost with no ads, whenever? Pay a buck an episode -
probably less in time.

Networks are looking at it as a possible way to fight DVRs - who needs
a DVR when you have a DVR-in-the-sky that has all the shows whenever
you want them? That's well in the future, but they're already talking
about it. HBO and Showtime are already embracing it.

Get the price down low enough and I'd probably be willing to subscribe
to the shows I like for a free to have them commercial free.

>Hotels and Guest Inns have had this feature for YEARS.......it is hardly
>a new idea.

The concept isn't new - how it is being used now is.

-MZ, RHCE #806199299900541, ex-CISSP #3762
--
<URL:mailto:megazoneatmegazone.org> Gweep, Discordian, Author, Engineer, me.
"A little nonsense now and then, is relished by the wisest men" 508-755-4098
<URL:http://www.megazone.org/&gt; <URL:http://www.eyrie-productions.com/&gt; Eris
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 2:26:26 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Essentially,what it will boil down to is this: COMPETITION for the cable
companies....I never said outright displacement of market share.With the
new HD capability of satellite,it will increase so-called "churn".Both
sat companies and cablecos hate churn or constant switching of viewer
groups from one service to another.With full local HD capability from
satcos,a customer would have a CHOICE to put up a dish if he was
dissatisfied with the offerings or service from his cable company OR
VICE VERSA.People for a long time have long complained about issues with
service and attitudes from cablecos......now with HD similarly being
offered on a national scale in 2007,cable companies will now have to pay
more attention to retaining customers more so than they have in the
past.No more treating the customer with disrespect because they have an
exclusive franchised territory anymore.It renders this more and more
meaningless.....it is going to be harder for them from now on.And to my
mind this is GOOD.
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 2:26:26 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

MegaZone (newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> It will allow DirecTV to carry
> more locals - but cable is already carrying the locals, or will be.
> It isn't some overwhelming advantage to DTV.

True, but it is an overwhelming DISadvantage to not carry the locals like
cable does. Right now, HD locals aren't really a make/break thing, but
they will be really big two years from now. Satellites take much forward
thinking, so this time DirecTV got ahead of the curve.

> DTV also has to deal with the growing demand for broadband - which is
> something cable can provide and they can't.

The only reason this is true is the discounts for bundling will get higher
and higher until cable companies practically give away either the TV
service or the Internet service.

DirecTV doesn't have to do a damn thing about broadband if they don't want
to...they are a TV programming delivery company. Of course, they could
partner with somebody like Verizon and help Verizon get better deals for
the source of their FIOS TV channels.

> > And what is the big deal with VOD anyway?
>
> Ask the people who are making it one of the fastest revenue segments
> for the cable market. VOD is popular - it is more than just a coupel
> of movies now. There have been entire networks run as VOD - The Anime
> Network started out as VOD, and still is in some markets (it is more a
> 'normal' network in others now). And some of the major name networks
> are looking at VOD as a way to offer their shows without advertising.
> Want to see Lost with no ads, whenever? Pay a buck an episode -
> probably less in time.

Actually, DVRs for every customer will kill this. You can still pay a
buck (or whatever) an episode, but it doesn't require precious bandwidth.
VOD is only for people who can't plan ahead.

--
Jeff Rife | "Eternity with nerds. It's the Pasadena Star
| Trek convention all over again."
|
| -- Nichelle Nichols, "Futurama"
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 2:34:34 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <6596-421664A9-1064@storefull-3251.bay.webtv.net>,
SAC441@webtv.net (SAC 441) wrote:

> And what is the big deal with VOD anyway?
> Hotels and Guest Inns have had this feature for YEARS.......it is hardly
> a new idea.

Hotels, Motels, Cable Companies, and Satellite companies make most of
their profits from selling "Adult" entertainment video programs via PPV.
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 5:06:13 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <6287-42167EF9-1092@storefull-3258.bay.webtv.net>,
SAC441@webtv.net (SAC 441) wrote:

> Essentially,what it will boil down to is this: COMPETITION for the cable
> companies....I never said outright displacement of market share.With the
> new HD capability of satellite,it will increase so-called "churn".Both
> sat companies and cablecos hate churn or constant switching of viewer
> groups from one service to another.With full local HD capability from
> satcos,a customer would have a CHOICE to put up a dish if he was
> dissatisfied with the offerings or service from his cable company OR
> VICE VERSA.People for a long time have long complained about issues with
> service and attitudes from cablecos......now with HD similarly being
> offered on a national scale in 2007,cable companies will now have to pay
> more attention to retaining customers more so than they have in the
> past.No more treating the customer with disrespect because they have an
> exclusive franchised territory anymore.It renders this more and more
> meaningless.....it is going to be harder for them from now on.And to my
> mind this is GOOD.

You'd think that wouldn't you, but Cable companies haven't learned and
aren't likely to. They've lost 20 million customers to minidish
satellite in the last 8 years, and continue on as if they were still the
monopoly they were in 1993. Get your frequent bad picture and call up
your cable company, you're likely to get a Kelly girl insist that you're
probably not on Channel 3; or if you can convince them you haven't
changed anything, they'll put you down for a service call a week from
Thursday. Cable companies are like cellular carriers. Once you're signed
up; you're just a piece of cash flow, that can safely be ignored, and if
you want support, it may be cheaper in the short run to lose you as a
customer.

I've been with DirecTv for 8 years now, and it's so nice to come home
from work, get into my "LazyBoy" recliner turn on the TV and not have to
think "I wonder what kind of reception I'll get today from cable".
With DirecTv I have no snow, no ghosts, no "noisy" picture, no hum bars,
no color fading in and out, just an excellent picture all the time on
EVERY channel. On the rare occasion I call up DirecTv on their 800
number the quality of the staff is an order of magnitude better than
anything I ever got from Cable or Cellular.
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 5:06:14 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Cable companies are like cellular carriers. Once you're signed
> up; you're just a piece of cash flow, that can safely be ignored, and if
> you want support, it may be cheaper in the short run to lose you as a
> customer.
Is this the very same JZ who waxes lovingly about Verizon in
alt.cellular.verizon, bashing same? Couldn't be.
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 9:22:36 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

"Jeff Rife" <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote in message
news:MPG.1c807a01ec368dfc989b9d@news.nabs.net...
> MegaZone (newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
>> Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
>> >Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
>> >they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.
>>
>> Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
>> something new?
>>
>> DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
>> - they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
>> systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.
>
> Even if DirecTV dropped TiVo completely and stopped paying TiVo any money,
> the loss would not be much in terms of money. TiVo gets anywhere from
> $6.95 to $12.95 per month from standalone subscribers, while a DirecTV DVR
> subscriber gets them less than $2.00/month.
>
> What kind of logic is this? Even 2$ per month for 2 million customers is
> what? 4 million per month? Not something to be ignored.
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 11:29:00 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 22:55:00 +0000, Jack Ak wrote:

> Not everyone is predicting a dire future for TiVo. The Carmel Group is
> saying TiVo will have 1/3 of the DVR market in 2008...
>
> http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/article_display.js...

At the end of last year they had over a 36% share, so they're predicting
Tivo losing share, not gaining. And correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't
they used to have well over 50%? Are they dying? I don't know and don't
care, but I don't plan on buying a another Tivo.

--
Abit KT7-Raid (KT133) Tbred B core CPU @2400MHz (24x100FSB)
My server http://wesnewell.no-ip.com/cpu.php
Verizon server http://mysite.verizon.net/res0exft/cpu.htm
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 9:36:45 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Golf God (nospamanytime@comcast.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> > Even if DirecTV dropped TiVo completely and stopped paying TiVo any money,
> > the loss would not be much in terms of money. TiVo gets anywhere from
> > $6.95 to $12.95 per month from standalone subscribers, while a DirecTV DVR
> > subscriber gets them less than $2.00/month.
> >
> > What kind of logic is this? Even 2$ per month for 2 million customers is
> > what? 4 million per month? Not something to be ignored.

The split between SA and DirecTV subscribers is about 50/50, so that's 1.5M
each.

If every SA subscriber pays $12.95/month, that's $19.4M/month. So, the
less than $3M from DirecTV is about 13% of their business. Yeah, it's
some money, but 250K new SA subscribers will make up for it. Losing 1.5M
subscribers and being able to make up for their losss with 250K new
subscribers isn't too bad a deal.

--
Jeff Rife |
| http://www.nabs.net/Cartoons/OverTheHedge/AntiqueOS.gif
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 11:34:44 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Jeff Rife wrote:
> Golf God (nospamanytime@comcast.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
Snip
>
> If every SA subscriber pays $12.95/month, that's $19.4M/month. So,
> the less than $3M from DirecTV is about 13% of their business. Yeah,
> it's some money, but 250K new SA subscribers will make up for it.
> Losing 1.5M subscribers and being able to make up for their losss
> with 250K new subscribers isn't too bad a deal.
You need to take into account those of us that paid for the lifetime sub.
John
Anonymous
February 20, 2005 1:25:27 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

John Graham (jgraham10@cox.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> > If every SA subscriber pays $12.95/month, that's $19.4M/month. So,
> > the less than $3M from DirecTV is about 13% of their business. Yeah,
> > it's some money, but 250K new SA subscribers will make up for it.
> > Losing 1.5M subscribers and being able to make up for their losss
> > with 250K new subscribers isn't too bad a deal.
> You need to take into account those of us that paid for the lifetime sub.

Everybody that did so less than two years ago still pays $12.95/month
from an accounting perspective.

--
Jeff Rife |
| http://www.nabs.net/Cartoons/Dilbert/NoHelpDesk.jpg
Anonymous
February 20, 2005 1:32:09 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Jeff Rife wrote:
> John Graham (jgraham10@cox.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
>>> If every SA subscriber pays $12.95/month, that's $19.4M/month. So,
>>> the less than $3M from DirecTV is about 13% of their business.
>>> Yeah, it's some money, but 250K new SA subscribers will make up for
>>> it. Losing 1.5M subscribers and being able to make up for their
>>> losss with 250K new subscribers isn't too bad a deal.
>> You need to take into account those of us that paid for the lifetime
>> sub.
>
> Everybody that did so less than two years ago still pays $12.95/month
> from an accounting perspective.

Unlike a monthly fee that Tivo receives each and every month a lifetime
subscription can only be counted on the books once and that is for the
year it was purchased. After that the lifetime user is a liability and not a
revenue generator. I understand your logic but it only applies to when
my box is in the black and paid off. You also need to take in to account
that if a user has more than one box they also get a discounted monthly
fee of $6.95 and that includes a person that has a lifetime sub and a monthly
box or two. You can have up to 5 boxes that get the discounted fee.
There are alot of variables that need to be taken into account to accuratly
show how much possible growth Tivo could do. That info should be in the
filings with the SEC that Tivo has to do since they are traded. Tivo's future
will depend on how fast they can get a HD and Cable Card unit out to the
market and how well the Cable Co's start allowing Cable Card units to be
on their systems as this will take a revenue stream from them. It will also add
another but not as lucrative as charging a rental fee on a box and then a
service
fee for the guide data too.
John
Anonymous
February 20, 2005 4:26:50 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

John Graham (jgraham10@cox.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> > Everybody that did so less than two years ago still pays $12.95/month
> > from an accounting perspective.
>
> Unlike a monthly fee that Tivo receives each and every month a lifetime
> subscription can only be counted on the books once and that is for the
> year it was purchased. After that the lifetime user is a liability and not a
> revenue generator.

It depends on where that money is.

It could be placed into an "escrow" fund and doled out to TiVo exactly as
if they were getting monthly revenue.

The point is that lifetime subscriptions that haven't gone for 2 years have
yet to become a real liability.

> You also need to take in to account
> that if a user has more than one box they also get a discounted monthly
> fee of $6.95 and that includes a person that has a lifetime sub and a monthly
> box or two.

Although common in this group, most people don't have more than one box.

Still, it points out that TiVo feels they can make some money at just $6.95
per month, so that really makes anybody who is paying $12.95/month (either
physically or logically) an big win for TiVo.

--
Jeff Rife |
| http://www.nabs.net/Cartoons/OverTheHedge/VelveetaAndRo...
Anonymous
February 20, 2005 10:07:47 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <jY2Sd.8232$yr.6655@okepread05>, John Graham wrote:
> Jeff Rife wrote:
>> John Graham (jgraham10@cox.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
>>>> If every SA subscriber pays $12.95/month, that's $19.4M/month. So,
>>>> the less than $3M from DirecTV is about 13% of their business.
>>>> Yeah, it's some money, but 250K new SA subscribers will make up for
>>>> it. Losing 1.5M subscribers and being able to make up for their
>>>> losss with 250K new subscribers isn't too bad a deal.
>>> You need to take into account those of us that paid for the lifetime
>>> sub.
>>
>> Everybody that did so less than two years ago still pays $12.95/month
>> from an accounting perspective.
>
> Unlike a monthly fee that Tivo receives each and every month a lifetime
> subscription can only be counted on the books once and that is for the
> year it was purchased. After that the lifetime user is a liability and not a
> revenue generator. I understand your logic but it only applies to when
> my box is in the black and paid off. You also need to take in to account
> that if a user has more than one box they also get a discounted monthly
> fee of $6.95 and that includes a person that has a lifetime sub and a monthly
> box or two. You can have up to 5 boxes that get the discounted fee.
> There are alot of variables that need to be taken into account to accuratly
> show how much possible growth Tivo could do. That info should be in the
> filings with the SEC that Tivo has to do since they are traded.

No, Lifetime is accounted as a monthly fee spread out over a FOUR year
period. Only the earliest 1-2% of lifetime subscriptions are now not
furnishing any income (accounting-wise) to TiVo. All of this is in
TiVo's quarterly statements.

At their last quarterly report (fall 2004), TiVo was getting about
$5.2 million per month net service revenue from the standalones (after
paying for service costs), and about $1.75 million per month net
revenue from DirecTV. The percentage of net revenue from standalones
has been very steadily increasing, even as the percentage of
DirecTiVo's increases. The monthly fee per DirecTV subscription was
about $1.25, and is still decreasing.

So the net service revenue from just the 250K new subscribers in the
jsut ended quarter is almost (not quite) as much as they had been getting
from all of their DirecTV subscribers.
Anonymous
February 21, 2005 7:47:17 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

"George Eberhardt" <geberhardt@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:37m9urF4rf8emU1@individual.net...
> Today CNBC reported that TiVo added about 700,000 subscribers in the
> Christmas quarter, and now have over three million subscribers.
>
> So its sure that TiVo will die any day now. RATS!
>
>
> --
> George Eberhardt
> (732)224-8988
>
>
>
>

Yep, and as a result TIVO stock is up another 6% today, after a good week
last week. Must be rigor mortis.

Rick
Anonymous
February 24, 2005 10:15:14 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Sun, 20 Feb 2005 10:32:09 -0600, "John Graham" <jgraham10@cox.net>
wrote:

>> Everybody that did so less than two years ago still pays $12.95/month
>> from an accounting perspective.
>
>Unlike a monthly fee that Tivo receives each and every month a lifetime
>subscription can only be counted on the books once and that is for the
>year it was purchased. After that the lifetime user is a liability and not a
>revenue generator. I understand your logic but it only applies to when
>my box is in the black and paid off. You also need to take in to account
>that if a user has more than one box they also get a discounted monthly
>fee of $6.95 and that includes a person that has a lifetime sub and a monthly
>box or two. You can have up to 5 boxes that get the discounted fee.
>There are alot of variables that need to be taken into account to accuratly
>show how much possible growth Tivo could do. That info should be in the
>filings with the SEC that Tivo has to do since they are traded. Tivo's future
>will depend on how fast they can get a HD and Cable Card unit out to the
>market and how well the Cable Co's start allowing Cable Card units to be
>on their systems as this will take a revenue stream from them. It will also add
>another but not as lucrative as charging a rental fee on a box and then a
>service
>fee for the guide data too.


I don't see one more 'Nielsen family' as a liability, and neither does
TiVo....I hope.
How much can TiVo even possibly pay for guide data in the first place?
It is available for free on at least six websites that come to mind.
Hell, most of the homegrown computer based DVRs can pull and use it
for free just like one can with a TiVo.
If they don't penetrate a BUNCH of homes and soon, they will be doomed
in the not so distant future. The revenue sources you talk of are
chump change compared to the advertising $$$ they are in reach of.
February 28, 2005 6:25:26 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 23:15:27 +0000 (UTC), newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org
(MegaZone) wrote:

>Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
>>Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
>>they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.
>
>Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
>something new?
>
>DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
>- they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
>systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.
>
>The only units with *any* uncertainty is the HD DirecTiVo, but even
>there it looks like existing national and spot beams will remain MPEG2
>for the foreseeable future.
>
>-MZ, RHCE #806199299900541, ex-CISSP #3762


Oh, right. Just like when the Directv guy quit the Tivo board.

All is well. No need to worry here. Directv loves Tivo.

Then Directtv sold all it's Tivo stock.

All is well. No need to worry here. Directv loves Tivo.

Then Directv buys a company that makes DVR's.

All is well. No need to worry here. Directv loves tivo.

Then Directv says they'll stop pushing Tivos and roll out their own
DVR.

All is well. No need to worry here. Directv loves Tivo.

Get a freakin grip megazone. As soon as the new DVR's
are available, Directv will begin replacing the existing Tivos and
never sell another new one.

I have no idea how they'll market it but I can guarantee they'll
make it worth the customers while to fork over some more cash to
replace their existing Tivo. Just wait. You'll see.

Of course you're already on record as saying the cable co's would
never replace their first generation hardware DVR's because they cost
$800 and that'd be too costly for them.

Wrong.

Comcast is on it's second Motorola box and other cable cos are on
their second SA box. All a customer has to do is pick up the phone and
say, bring me the new box. It magically appears a few days later.

Installed. For free.

Directv is going to be different?

Sean
February 28, 2005 6:26:36 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 22:18:18 -0500, Jeff Rife <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote:

>MegaZone (newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
>> Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
>> >Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
>> >they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.
>>
>> Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
>> something new?
>>
>> DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
>> - they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
>> systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.
>
>Even if DirecTV dropped TiVo completely and stopped paying TiVo any money,
>the loss would not be much in terms of money. TiVo gets anywhere from
>$6.95 to $12.95 per month from standalone subscribers, while a DirecTV DVR
>subscriber gets them less than $2.00/month.

I think it's something like $1.20 per month.

LKind of puts those 450,000 new subscribers from Directv in
perspective, doesn't it?

Sean
February 28, 2005 6:39:01 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Sat, 19 Feb 2005 02:06:13 GMT, Jack Zwick <jzwick3@mindspring.com>
wrote:

>In article <6287-42167EF9-1092@storefull-3258.bay.webtv.net>,
> SAC441@webtv.net (SAC 441) wrote:
>
>> Essentially,what it will boil down to is this: COMPETITION for the cable
>> companies....I never said outright displacement of market share.With the
>> new HD capability of satellite,it will increase so-called "churn".Both
>> sat companies and cablecos hate churn or constant switching of viewer
>> groups from one service to another.With full local HD capability from
>> satcos,a customer would have a CHOICE to put up a dish if he was
>> dissatisfied with the offerings or service from his cable company OR
>> VICE VERSA.People for a long time have long complained about issues with
>> service and attitudes from cablecos......now with HD similarly being
>> offered on a national scale in 2007,cable companies will now have to pay
>> more attention to retaining customers more so than they have in the
>> past.No more treating the customer with disrespect because they have an
>> exclusive franchised territory anymore.It renders this more and more
>> meaningless.....it is going to be harder for them from now on.And to my
>> mind this is GOOD.
>
>You'd think that wouldn't you, but Cable companies haven't learned and
>aren't likely to. They've lost 20 million customers to minidish
>satellite in the last 8 years, and continue on as if they were still the
>monopoly they were in 1993. Get your frequent bad picture and call up
>your cable company, you're likely to get a Kelly girl insist that you're
>probably not on Channel 3; or if you can convince them you haven't
>changed anything, they'll put you down for a service call a week from
>Thursday. Cable companies are like cellular carriers. Once you're signed
>up; you're just a piece of cash flow, that can safely be ignored, and if
>you want support, it may be cheaper in the short run to lose you as a
>customer.
>
>I've been with DirecTv for 8 years now, and it's so nice to come home
>from work, get into my "LazyBoy" recliner turn on the TV and not have to
>think "I wonder what kind of reception I'll get today from cable".
>With DirecTv I have no snow, no ghosts, no "noisy" picture, no hum bars,
>no color fading in and out, just an excellent picture all the time on
>EVERY channel. On the rare occasion I call up DirecTv on their 800
>number the quality of the staff is an order of magnitude better than
>anything I ever got from Cable or Cellular.

Thanks for admitting that your view of cable is 8 years old.

It's a new century Jackie.

I have Comcast and they've been great.

Sean
Anonymous
March 1, 2005 4:49:25 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <civ62153rbhpae32fdev6in0c34hei6uhq@4ax.com>,
Sean <sean386@yahoo.com> wrote:

> On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 22:18:18 -0500, Jeff Rife <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote:
>
> >MegaZone (newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> >> Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
> >> >Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
> >> >they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.
> >>
> >> Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
> >> something new?
> >>
> >> DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
> >> - they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
> >> systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.
> >
> >Even if DirecTV dropped TiVo completely and stopped paying TiVo any money,
> >the loss would not be much in terms of money. TiVo gets anywhere from
> >$6.95 to $12.95 per month from standalone subscribers, while a DirecTV DVR
> >subscriber gets them less than $2.00/month.
>
> I think it's something like $1.20 per month.
>
> LKind of puts those 450,000 new subscribers from Directv in
> perspective, doesn't it?
>
> Sean

I may be missing something, but if you are so much against Tivo, why do
you bother to post to this group?

--
Robert B. Peirce, Venetia, PA 724-941-6883
bob AT peirce-family.com [Mac]
rbp AT cooksonpeirce.com [Office]
Anonymous
March 1, 2005 4:49:26 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Tue, 01 Mar 2005 01:49:25 +0000, Robert Peirce wrote:

> I may be missing something, but if you are so much against Tivo, why do
> you bother to post to this group?

The only thing you're missing is that he's your common, garden-variety,
troll.

--
Lenroc
March 1, 2005 2:39:47 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Tue, 01 Mar 2005 01:49:25 GMT, Robert Peirce
<bob@peirce-family.com.invalid> wrote:

>In article <civ62153rbhpae32fdev6in0c34hei6uhq@4ax.com>,
> Sean <sean386@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>> On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 22:18:18 -0500, Jeff Rife <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote:
>>
>> >MegaZone (newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
>> >> Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
>> >> >Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
>> >> >they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.
>> >>
>> >> Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
>> >> something new?
>> >>
>> >> DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
>> >> - they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
>> >> systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.
>> >
>> >Even if DirecTV dropped TiVo completely and stopped paying TiVo any money,
>> >the loss would not be much in terms of money. TiVo gets anywhere from
>> >$6.95 to $12.95 per month from standalone subscribers, while a DirecTV DVR
>> >subscriber gets them less than $2.00/month.
>>
>> I think it's something like $1.20 per month.
>>
>> LKind of puts those 450,000 new subscribers from Directv in
>> perspective, doesn't it?
>>
>> Sean
>
>I may be missing something, but if you are so much against Tivo, why do
>you bother to post to this group?


It's like watching a slow motion car crash. Afetr you warned the
drivers involved that they were headed for the crash months ago.

Yet they drive merrily along in their ignorant bliss.

I just have to watch.

Sean
Anonymous
March 1, 2005 5:24:01 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <klqs11plaipesmb7pcdtamo9gdc2tr9cd2@4ax.com>,
kryppy <kryppy@gmail.cc> wrote:

> Hell, most of the homegrown computer based DVRs can pull and use it
> for free just like one can with a TiVo.

And its VERY nontrivial to pull it down, massage it, reformat it, and
import it into the "free" DVR programs. The time saved not going through
those hoops alone pays for TiVo service.
Anonymous
March 5, 2005 6:40:15 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

"Sean" <none> wrote in message
news:kp6h21l5rh4b0lsv67682frvd49329sogp@4ax.com...
>
> Like I said. Comcast has been great.

Congratulations, you are now the official Comcast rumpswab and apologist
extrordinnaire.

Ed
84HurstOlds@nowherenow.com
Anonymous
March 8, 2005 3:48:54 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Sean wrote:

> When the new sattelites launch. You won't be watching those new HD
> channels on your Tivo.

We'll be watching them on a replacement TiVo.
Anonymous
March 8, 2005 1:47:53 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Sean wrote:
> On Tue, 08 Mar 2005 00:48:54 -0800, Joe Smith <joe@inwap.com> wrote:
>
> >Sean wrote:
> >
> >> When the new sattelites launch. You won't be watching those new HD
> >> channels on your Tivo.
> >
> >We'll be watching them on a replacement TiVo.
>
> Yes. Very true.
>
> What's the name of the NDS product that will be out in a few months?

There isn't an NDS product coming out in a few months (at least, not
one related to this thread or this newsgroup).
March 8, 2005 4:28:15 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Tue, 08 Mar 2005 00:48:54 -0800, Joe Smith <joe@inwap.com> wrote:

>Sean wrote:
>
>> When the new sattelites launch. You won't be watching those new HD
>> channels on your Tivo.
>
>We'll be watching them on a replacement TiVo.

Yes. Very true.

What's the name of the NDS product that will be out in a few months?

Sean
Anonymous
March 8, 2005 10:55:00 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

<in2sheep@yahoo.com> wrote in message news:1110307673.616369.323660@z14g2000cwz.googlegroups.com...
>
> Sean wrote:
> > On Tue, 08 Mar 2005 00:48:54 -0800, Joe Smith <joe@inwap.com> wrote:
> >
> > >Sean wrote:
> > >
> > >> When the new sattelites launch. You won't be watching those new HD
> > >> channels on your Tivo.
> > >
> > >We'll be watching them on a replacement TiVo.
> >
> > Yes. Very true.
> >
> > What's the name of the NDS product that will be out in a few months?
>
> There isn't an NDS product coming out in a few months (at least, not
> one related to this thread or this newsgroup).
>

Look here...
http://www.directv.com/DTVAPP/aboutus/headline.dsp?id=0...
"The new DIRECTV interactive DVR will be commercially available in mid-2005."
/
This is not the anticipated HD DVR design from Motorola/Ucentric.
There is no mention of NDS or TiVo in the news item, but the features
are not those used to characterize a current model DirecTV DVR with TiVo.
There is speculation the design is from NDS and will be manufactured
by Thomson or Humax.

There is no reason to believe that a new DirecTV DVR with TiVo will not
have the same service life as a competitive product available today from
a cable company. The internal components of the TiVo designed product
are as reliable as components used in cable company provided DVRs.

The user interface on a TiVo DVR is superior to any cable company
provided DVR currently available.
Anonymous
March 9, 2005 6:35:23 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

I knew you were going to say that.
Anonymous
March 9, 2005 7:03:04 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

relaxificat...@hotmail.com wrote:
> I knew you were going to say that.

You knew who was going to say what?

It's one thing to include hundreds of not-related lines like Sean does
and it's another to not include ANY lines of context. There is a
middle ground you know.
Anonymous
March 9, 2005 8:59:03 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Sorry. I assumed it would be obvious given it was posted right after
Sean's. Looking at it now I see it isn't really that obvious.

I meant it in response to Sean's post.
Anonymous
March 9, 2005 9:38:38 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <oqnXd.5368$C47.1663@newssvr14.news.prodigy.com>,
"Jack Ak" <akjack@excite.com> wrote:

>
> <in2sheep@yahoo.com> wrote in message
> news:1110307673.616369.323660@z14g2000cwz.googlegroups.com...
> >
> > Sean wrote:
> > > On Tue, 08 Mar 2005 00:48:54 -0800, Joe Smith <joe@inwap.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > >Sean wrote:
> > > >
> > > >> When the new sattelites launch. You won't be watching those new HD
> > > >> channels on your Tivo.
> > > >
> > > >We'll be watching them on a replacement TiVo.
> > >
> > > Yes. Very true.
> > >
> > > What's the name of the NDS product that will be out in a few months?
> >
> > There isn't an NDS product coming out in a few months (at least, not
> > one related to this thread or this newsgroup).
> >
>
> Look here...
> http://www.directv.com/DTVAPP/aboutus/headline.dsp?id=0...
> "The new DIRECTV interactive DVR will be commercially available in
> mid-2005."

Thats a Jan 6 Press Release, and there's already doubt that deadline
will be met.


> /
> This is not the anticipated HD DVR design from Motorola/Ucentric.
> There is no mention of NDS or TiVo in the news item, but the features
> are not those used to characterize a current model DirecTV DVR with TiVo.
> There is speculation the design is from NDS and will be manufactured
> by Thomson or Humax.

DirecTv has already contracted with Humax. Motorola just signed a
Billion Dollar deal for set top boxes for ComCast.


>
> There is no reason to believe that a new DirecTV DVR with TiVo will not
> have the same service life as a competitive product available today from
> a cable company. The internal components of the TiVo designed product
> are as reliable as components used in cable company provided DVRs.
>
> The user interface on a TiVo DVR is superior to any cable company
> provided DVR currently available.

And the TiVo performs far more reliably without the reboots, lockups and
partial (unexpected) recordings reported on the Scientific Atlanta and
Motorola boxes used by the Cable companies.
Anonymous
March 10, 2005 12:15:55 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

relaxification@hotmail.com wrote:
> Sorry. I assumed it would be obvious given it was posted right after
> Sean's. Looking at it now I see it isn't really that obvious.
>
> I meant it in response to Sean's post.

And you did it again! Do you notice how I keep the part of the
previous post I'm responding to? That's all you have to do. It's just
that simple. Remove the parts you're not responding to and keep the
others.
Anonymous
March 10, 2005 1:28:32 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

in2sheep@yahoo.com wrote:
> relaxification@hotmail.com wrote:
> > Sorry. I assumed it would be obvious given it was posted right
after
> > Sean's. Looking at it now I see it isn't really that obvious.
> >
> > I meant it in response to Sean's post.
>
> And you did it again! Do you notice how I keep the part of the
> previous post I'm responding to? That's all you have to do. It's
just
> that simple. Remove the parts you're not responding to and keep the
> others.

Actually, I did do it correctly, both times (I paid special attention
the second time to make sure I was including what you wrote) but from a
mac at work. I see the interface here at home, on a pc, is slightly
different, and I'm willing to be this will work properly. I think
there might be an issue with firefox/google groups/macs/my work setup.

Hopefully this will work just fine.
!