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A financial Analyst's view of Tivo's 3 mill subscribers ..

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February 18, 2005 6:15:32 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

TiVo Turns Three
By Seth Jayson (TMF Bent)
February 18, 2005

I really don't understand the 5% fuss about TiVo's (Nasdaq: TIVO)
latest subscriber milestone. Yes, 3 million users sounds great, but
what good are they when you're spending loads to obtain them, and
competition is ramping up everywhere?

In case you've been in the dark on the investing angle here, we're not
talking about something like Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPod. Yes, TiVo is
just as well entrenched in the public's consciousness, and yes,
devotees swear that the product is so superior to its rivals that it
can't help but win in the end. Here's the key difference: the iPod is
very profitable. TiVo, not so much.

To judge by our own community's unscientific poll, there are a lot of
folks out there hoping that TiVo will get above $10 per share again. I
think that might take a 1-for-3 reverse split.

Long-term, I believe TiVo will continue to do what it's always done.
Lose a lot of money, and not just accounting numbers, but real, live
cash. Unfortunately, shareholders have been losing their shirts too.
This thing's been a nightmare.

Given the fact that execs are jumping ship with flimsy excuses, I
still think there's much more risk here than reward. With competition
coming from virtually everywhere, including the cable companies,
partner-gone-wild DirecTV (NYSE: DTV), future Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
media-center PCs, and Sony (NYSE: SNE) Blu-Ray gear, TiVo's got too
many fights and not enough fists.
Anonymous
February 18, 2005 10:48:33 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Apple is going to buy Tivo. Just a prediction.
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 2:12:55 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <h5jc11dshgrdhirc7qdnlc4esc48472pmd@4ax.com>, Sean
<sean386@yahoo.com> wrote:

> TiVo Turns Three
> By Seth Jayson (TMF Bent)
> February 18, 2005
>
> I really don't understand the 5% fuss about TiVo's (Nasdaq: TIVO)
> latest subscriber milestone. Yes, 3 million users sounds great, but
> what good are they when you're spending loads to obtain them, and
> competition is ramping up everywhere?
>
> In case you've been in the dark on the investing angle here, we're not
> talking about something like Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPod. Yes, TiVo is
> just as well entrenched in the public's consciousness, and yes,
> devotees swear that the product is so superior to its rivals that it
> can't help but win in the end. Here's the key difference: the iPod is
> very profitable. TiVo, not so much.
>
> To judge by our own community's unscientific poll, there are a lot of
> folks out there hoping that TiVo will get above $10 per share again. I
> think that might take a 1-for-3 reverse split.
>
> Long-term, I believe TiVo will continue to do what it's always done.
> Lose a lot of money, and not just accounting numbers, but real, live
> cash. Unfortunately, shareholders have been losing their shirts too.
> This thing's been a nightmare.
>
> Given the fact that execs are jumping ship with flimsy excuses, I
> still think there's much more risk here than reward. With competition
> coming from virtually everywhere, including the cable companies,
> partner-gone-wild DirecTV (NYSE: DTV), future Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
> media-center PCs, and Sony (NYSE: SNE) Blu-Ray gear, TiVo's got too
> many fights and not enough fists.


All these guys were burying Apple Computer five years ago, and now
they're citing Apple's success as an example of what TiVo isn't.

Hysterical.
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Anonymous
February 19, 2005 2:22:22 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Just in case you want to learn about this "expert author".
http://www.fool.com/about/staff/SethJayson/author.htm
Oops, another top post. My bad.


"Sean" <sean386@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:h5jc11dshgrdhirc7qdnlc4esc48472pmd@4ax.com...
> TiVo Turns Three
> By Seth Jayson (TMF Bent)
> February 18, 2005
>
> I really don't understand the 5% fuss about TiVo's (Nasdaq: TIVO)
> latest subscriber milestone. Yes, 3 million users sounds great, but
> what good are they when you're spending loads to obtain them, and
> competition is ramping up everywhere?
>
> In case you've been in the dark on the investing angle here, we're not
> talking about something like Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPod. Yes, TiVo is
> just as well entrenched in the public's consciousness, and yes,
> devotees swear that the product is so superior to its rivals that it
> can't help but win in the end. Here's the key difference: the iPod is
> very profitable. TiVo, not so much.
>
> To judge by our own community's unscientific poll, there are a lot of
> folks out there hoping that TiVo will get above $10 per share again. I
> think that might take a 1-for-3 reverse split.
>
> Long-term, I believe TiVo will continue to do what it's always done.
> Lose a lot of money, and not just accounting numbers, but real, live
> cash. Unfortunately, shareholders have been losing their shirts too.
> This thing's been a nightmare.
>
> Given the fact that execs are jumping ship with flimsy excuses, I
> still think there's much more risk here than reward. With competition
> coming from virtually everywhere, including the cable companies,
> partner-gone-wild DirecTV (NYSE: DTV), future Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
> media-center PCs, and Sony (NYSE: SNE) Blu-Ray gear, TiVo's got too
> many fights and not enough fists.
>
>
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 1:08:35 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <180220051948337545%nospam@nospam.com>,
Quiet Desperation <nospam@nospam.com> wrote:

> Apple is going to buy Tivo. Just a prediction.

Make more sense for DirecTv to buy them.

Meanwhile TiVo stands to make beaucoup money from its patent
infringement lawsuit against Dish when that gets adjudicated.

http://news.com.com/2100-1041_3-5135325.html
February 19, 2005 1:08:36 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

"Jack Zwick" <jzwick3@mindspring.com> wrote in message
news:jzwick3-8A9322.04083519022005@news1.east.earthlink.net...
> In article <180220051948337545%nospam@nospam.com>,
> Quiet Desperation <nospam@nospam.com> wrote:
>
>> Apple is going to buy Tivo. Just a prediction.
>
> Make more sense for DirecTv to buy them.
>
> Meanwhile TiVo stands to make beaucoup money from its patent
> infringement lawsuit against Dish when that gets adjudicated.
>
> http://news.com.com/2100-1041_3-5135325.html

Doesn't every DVR violate that patent?
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 1:08:36 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <jzwick3-8A9322.04083519022005@news1.east.earthlink.net>,
Jack Zwick <jzwick3@mindspring.com> wrote:

> Make more sense for DirecTv to buy them.

Probably, but DTV has their own company already making their next gen
DVRs.
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 5:08:11 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <VXERd.18414$Tt.7524@fed1read05>, "eric" <eric.2@cox.net>
wrote:

>
> "Jack Zwick" <jzwick3@mindspring.com> wrote in message
> news:jzwick3-8A9322.04083519022005@news1.east.earthlink.net...
> > In article <180220051948337545%nospam@nospam.com>,
> > Quiet Desperation <nospam@nospam.com> wrote:
> >
> >> Apple is going to buy Tivo. Just a prediction.
> >
> > Make more sense for DirecTv to buy them.
> >
> > Meanwhile TiVo stands to make beaucoup money from its patent
> > infringement lawsuit against Dish when that gets adjudicated.
> >
> > http://news.com.com/2100-1041_3-5135325.html
>
> Doesn't every DVR violate that patent?

Dunno, I'm not a Patent Attorney. Perhaps after winning against
Echostar they'd go after others.
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 5:08:12 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

>> >
>> > http://news.com.com/2100-1041_3-5135325.html
>>
>> Doesn't every DVR violate that patent?
>
> Dunno, I'm not a Patent Attorney. Perhaps after winning against
> Echostar they'd go after others.

Maybe not a patent attorney, but obiously you must be at least a circuit
court judge since you've already adjudicated the Echostar case.
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 5:09:59 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <v8ARd.2778$oE6.737@fe07.lga>, "Rick S." <r51@mail.com>
wrote:

> Just in case you want to learn about this "expert author".
> http://www.fool.com/about/staff/SethJayson/author.htm
> Oops, another top post. My bad.
>

So he's hardley a disinterested objective observer if he's trying to
build his own PVR.


>
> "Sean" <sean386@yahoo.com> wrote in message
> news:h5jc11dshgrdhirc7qdnlc4esc48472pmd@4ax.com...
> > TiVo Turns Three
> > By Seth Jayson (TMF Bent)
> > February 18, 2005
> >
> > I really don't understand the 5% fuss about TiVo's (Nasdaq: TIVO)
> > latest subscriber milestone. Yes, 3 million users sounds great, but
> > what good are they when you're spending loads to obtain them, and
> > competition is ramping up everywhere?
> >
> > In case you've been in the dark on the investing angle here, we're not
> > talking about something like Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPod. Yes, TiVo is
> > just as well entrenched in the public's consciousness, and yes,
> > devotees swear that the product is so superior to its rivals that it
> > can't help but win in the end. Here's the key difference: the iPod is
> > very profitable. TiVo, not so much.
> >
> > To judge by our own community's unscientific poll, there are a lot of
> > folks out there hoping that TiVo will get above $10 per share again. I
> > think that might take a 1-for-3 reverse split.
> >
> > Long-term, I believe TiVo will continue to do what it's always done.
> > Lose a lot of money, and not just accounting numbers, but real, live
> > cash. Unfortunately, shareholders have been losing their shirts too.
> > This thing's been a nightmare.
> >
> > Given the fact that execs are jumping ship with flimsy excuses, I
> > still think there's much more risk here than reward. With competition
> > coming from virtually everywhere, including the cable companies,
> > partner-gone-wild DirecTV (NYSE: DTV), future Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
> > media-center PCs, and Sony (NYSE: SNE) Blu-Ray gear, TiVo's got too
> > many fights and not enough fists.
> >
> >
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 5:10:00 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

"Jack Zwick" <jzwick3@mindspring.com> wrote in message
news:jzwick3-DB1646.08095919022005@news1.east.earthlink.net...
> In article <v8ARd.2778$oE6.737@fe07.lga>, "Rick S." <r51@mail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Just in case you want to learn about this "expert author".
>> http://www.fool.com/about/staff/SethJayson/author.htm
>> Oops, another top post. My bad.
>>
>
> So he's hardley a disinterested objective observer if he's trying to
> build his own PVR.
>
> To the contrary, if he's trying to build his own PVR, then he ought to
> appreciate all the work Tivo's done just a little more.
>>
>> "Sean" <sean386@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>> news:h5jc11dshgrdhirc7qdnlc4esc48472pmd@4ax.com...
>> > TiVo Turns Three
>> > By Seth Jayson (TMF Bent)
>> > February 18, 2005
>> >
>> > I really don't understand the 5% fuss about TiVo's (Nasdaq: TIVO)
>> > latest subscriber milestone. Yes, 3 million users sounds great, but
>> > what good are they when you're spending loads to obtain them, and
>> > competition is ramping up everywhere?
>> >
>> > In case you've been in the dark on the investing angle here, we're not
>> > talking about something like Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPod. Yes, TiVo is
>> > just as well entrenched in the public's consciousness, and yes,
>> > devotees swear that the product is so superior to its rivals that it
>> > can't help but win in the end. Here's the key difference: the iPod is
>> > very profitable. TiVo, not so much.
>> >
>> > To judge by our own community's unscientific poll, there are a lot of
>> > folks out there hoping that TiVo will get above $10 per share again. I
>> > think that might take a 1-for-3 reverse split.
>> >
>> > Long-term, I believe TiVo will continue to do what it's always done.
>> > Lose a lot of money, and not just accounting numbers, but real, live
>> > cash. Unfortunately, shareholders have been losing their shirts too.
>> > This thing's been a nightmare.
>> >
>> > Given the fact that execs are jumping ship with flimsy excuses, I
>> > still think there's much more risk here than reward. With competition
>> > coming from virtually everywhere, including the cable companies,
>> > partner-gone-wild DirecTV (NYSE: DTV), future Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)
>> > media-center PCs, and Sony (NYSE: SNE) Blu-Ray gear, TiVo's got too
>> > many fights and not enough fists.
>> >
>> >
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 9:38:36 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

eric (eric.2@cox.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> > Meanwhile TiVo stands to make beaucoup money from its patent
> > infringement lawsuit against Dish when that gets adjudicated.
> >
> > http://news.com.com/2100-1041_3-5135325.html
>
> Doesn't every DVR violate that patent?

No, there are a very few that can't play back an existing recording while
recording a new one, and some that have licensed the TiVo technology
(thus, there is no infringement).

--
Jeff Rife |
| http://www.nabs.net/Cartoons/OverTheHedge/SportOfKings....
Anonymous
February 19, 2005 10:38:58 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

"eric" <eric.2@cox.net> shaped the electrons to say:
>Doesn't every DVR violate that patent?

Almost certainly, yeah. If TiVo wins against Dish then they have a
big stick to make other DVR makers pay a license without TiVo having
to bother with the courts. Standard tactic - pick one violator to sue
to set the precedent, then pursue licensing with anyone else violating
the patent. Most companies will just pay the license to avoid the
cost and annoyance of a trial.

TiVo and ReplayTV both have some fundamental patents it would be hard
to build a DVR without violating - they sued each other years ago and
settled the case with a patent exchange agreement.

-MZ, RHCE #806199299900541, ex-CISSP #3762
--
<URL:mailto:megazoneatmegazone.org> Gweep, Discordian, Author, Engineer, me.
"A little nonsense now and then, is relished by the wisest men" 508-755-4098
<URL:http://www.megazone.org/&gt; <URL:http://www.eyrie-productions.com/&gt; Eris
Anonymous
February 20, 2005 1:57:20 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <190220050716351722%nospam@nospam.com>,
Quiet Desperation <nospam@nospam.com> wrote:

> In article <jzwick3-8A9322.04083519022005@news1.east.earthlink.net>,
> Jack Zwick <jzwick3@mindspring.com> wrote:
>
> > Make more sense for DirecTv to buy them.
>
> Probably, but DTV has their own company already making their next gen
> DVRs.

Already attempting to make. If they were making it, it'd be for sale
already.
Anonymous
February 20, 2005 1:57:21 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <jzwick3-67647F.16572019022005@news1.east.earthlink.net>,
Jack Zwick <jzwick3@mindspring.com> wrote:

> Already attempting to make. If they were making it, it'd be for sale
> already.

Man that is most nitpicky response I've seen in days, and that's months
in Internet years. ;-) OK.

IF string = "making" then string = "developing"

There. Better? Sheesh.
Anonymous
February 20, 2005 7:06:32 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <190220051713130259%nospam@nospam.com>,
Quiet Desperation <nospam@nospam.com> wrote:

> In article <jzwick3-67647F.16572019022005@news1.east.earthlink.net>,
> Jack Zwick <jzwick3@mindspring.com> wrote:
>
> > Already attempting to make. If they were making it, it'd be for sale
> > already.
>
> Man that is most nitpicky response I've seen in days, and that's months
> in Internet years. ;-) OK.
>
> IF string = "making" then string = "developing"
>
> There. Better? Sheesh.

Don't buy promises. Likely no "homegrown" DVR will see the light of day
in 2005.
Anonymous
February 20, 2005 11:28:05 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

> Don't buy promises. Likely no "homegrown" DVR will see the light of day
> in 2005.

I think the bio was referring to "homegrown" as in DIY built PC's with
DVR capabilities. Those are a dime a dozen already, though they all
have significant drawbacks as DVR's when compared to TiVo (though they
are much more versatile, of course).

I think you're referring to "home-grown" as DVR's developed in-house at
the cable companies. On that I agree, *nobody* should count those
chickens before they hatch. It's not impossible, and they'll eventually
get one, but schedules tend to slip.

Randy S.
Anonymous
February 20, 2005 6:49:27 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

"Quiet Desperation" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:190220051713130259%nospam@nospam.com...
> In article <jzwick3-67647F.16572019022005@news1.east.earthlink.net>,
> Jack Zwick <jzwick3@mindspring.com> wrote:
>
>> Already attempting to make. If they were making it, it'd be for sale
>> already.
>
> Man that is most nitpicky response I've seen in days, and that's months
> in Internet years. ;-) OK.
>
> IF string = "making" then string = "developing"
>
> There. Better? Sheesh.

>JZ is nothing if not nitpicky.
Anonymous
February 21, 2005 12:42:16 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article with Message-ID: <44adnWzIX4l27YrfRVn-vA@comcast.com>,
I saw this:

> "Jack Zwick" <jzwick3@mindspring.com> wrote in message
> news:jzwick3-DB1646.08095919022005@news1.east.earthlink.net...
>>
>>So he's hardley a disinterested objective observer if he's trying to
>>build his own PVR.
>>
>>To the contrary, if he's trying to build his own PVR, then he ought to
>>appreciate all the work Tivo's done just a little more.

Golf God wrote:
>

What is confusing is that Golf God put ">" quote marks in front of
his text, making it look like the "To the contrary" line is
something that Jack said.

-Joe
Anonymous
February 21, 2005 1:46:14 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

From the beginning, Tivo's advertising campaigns and tv commercials have
been AWFUL. They do nothing to inform the consumer of the miracle of
Tivo. The average person is not going to subscribe to a service if they
think that the main thing that it does is pause live tv. They will
stick to their VCRs for the time being. Love Tivo... unbelievable
idiots when it comes to advertising.
February 22, 2005 12:13:20 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

* robin rules Wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:

> From the beginning, Tivo's advertising campaigns and tv
> commercials have been AWFUL. They do nothing to inform the
> consumer of the miracle of Tivo. The average person is not going
> to subscribe to a service if they think that the main thing that
> it does is pause live tv. They will stick to their VCRs for the
> time being. Love Tivo... unbelievable idiots when it comes to
> advertising.
>

Got any ideas then? You think they haven't heard this? The
commercials I have seen discuss every feature of the Tivo I use every
day. The bottom line is that you just don't understand it until you
use it and no amount of advertising will ever fix that problem its
just that type of device.

How would you advertise TV today to someone that never had one/saw
one? Do you think you could convince them they need to have one? VHS
or DVD player, same thing? If I had to guess I have probably used my
DVD players and VHS players maybe ~100 hours since I ever had one! (I
am 37 years old and My father had one of the first VHS players with
DIALS to change stations) Blockbuster wasn't getting rich on me and I
NEVER time shifted, enter Tivo. Now I never watch Live TV, don't
channel surf and never rent movies.

Cable companies are getting new customers to 'praise' their 'Tivo's'
because they are already in your house, what do you have to lose by
giving them a shot for an extra $10 a month on top of a bill you are
already paying? Have you ever known anyone to buy a Tivo, use it for
a couple of weeks and then bring it back? No because if the person
watches ANY TV at all it is well worth the cash. Now instead of
putting that Tivo in their house, brag to everyone you know but never
let them touch the device, how many do you think would buy it then?
These are friends and acquaintances that trust your opinion right?
Still cant do it, why? If you cant convince your friends how is Tivo
going to convince a stranger?

"So let me get this straight. You want me to buy yet another box to
stick in my Entertainment center and pay ANOTHER $12 a month for
something I can do with TV Guide and a VCR" (which they aren't likely
doing today) Aint gonna happen!

You have to convince someone there is a need where it is almost
impossible to see one. Who thinks there is something wrong with their
own viewing habits and who on this earth really thinks they need to
watch MORE TV?

I don't envy their (Tivo) position but they didn't become the
'Kleenex' of the DVR world by doing something wrong...

--
David
February 22, 2005 12:15:08 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

* Joe Smith Wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:

> What is confusing is that Golf God put ">" quote marks in front of
> his text, making it look like the "To the contrary" line is
> something that Jack said.

He has been told how much of a Moron because of things like this but
he still continues to post like a feeble minded twit. At least shawnie
the troll is entertaining, this troll is just dumb.

--
David
Anonymous
February 24, 2005 10:28:17 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Sun, 20 Feb 2005 21:42:16 -0800, Joe Smith <joe@inwap.com> wrote:


>Golf God wrote:
> >
>
>What is confusing is that Golf God put ">" quote marks in front of
>his text, making it look like the "To the contrary" line is
>something that Jack said.
>
> -Joe


Damn, good catch. I thought he just sent an empty reply.
Anonymous
February 25, 2005 1:53:10 AM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <180220051948337545%nospam@nospam.com>, Quiet Desperation
<nospam@nospam.com> wrote:

> Apple is going to buy Tivo. Just a prediction.

See? You heard it here first. :-)
February 28, 2005 6:31:13 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Sun, 20 Feb 2005 04:06:32 GMT, Jack Zwick <jzwick3@mindspring.com>
wrote:

>In article <190220051713130259%nospam@nospam.com>,
> Quiet Desperation <nospam@nospam.com> wrote:
>
>> In article <jzwick3-67647F.16572019022005@news1.east.earthlink.net>,
>> Jack Zwick <jzwick3@mindspring.com> wrote:
>>
>> > Already attempting to make. If they were making it, it'd be for sale
>> > already.
>>
>> Man that is most nitpicky response I've seen in days, and that's months
>> in Internet years. ;-) OK.
>>
>> IF string = "making" then string = "developing"
>>
>> There. Better? Sheesh.
>
>Don't buy promises. Likely no "homegrown" DVR will see the light of day
>in 2005.

Likely no cablecard HD DVR will see the light of day before 2008.

Don't buy promises.

Sean
February 28, 2005 6:37:36 PM

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Sun, 20 Feb 2005 22:46:14 -0800, robin rules <robin@rules.com>
wrote:

>From the beginning, Tivo's advertising campaigns and tv commercials have
>been AWFUL. They do nothing to inform the consumer of the miracle of
>Tivo. The average person is not going to subscribe to a service if they
>think that the main thing that it does is pause live tv. They will
>stick to their VCRs for the time being. Love Tivo... unbelievable
>idiots when it comes to advertising.


I heard a few radio ads around valentines day on a Sports talk radio
extolling the virtues of Tivo "wish lists" and the ability to spend
more time "with your honey" watching Tivo.

Ya, that's what the 90% male audience of Sports Talk radio wants
to hear about, how to spend more quality time with their honey.

Geeze what morons.

Sean
!