Aww, predictions are difficult, especially if you're predicting the future. Being the eternal pessimist, I would say that the warranty reduction from the major manufacturers (Maxtor, Seagate, Western Digital) <i>might</i> be the advent of shoddily manufactured 10krpm drives in the IDE market.
Still, I'm rather sceptical about it. Profit margins in the IDE market are far too slim to introduce high-performance <i>mechanics</i>. IMO the average seek times of current IDE drives are textbook example. To my understanding, 4ms - 5ms average seek times have been a reality in the SCSI world for some time now. In so called high-performance IDE drives the average seek time still is >8ms. Ever wondered why?
My own guess is the density requirement. In the IDE market, it is mostly about "bang for the buck". IDE densities are <b>huge</b>, so I'd think that they require über-accurate seek mechanics. IMO there is a tradeoff between accuracy and speed. In the SCSI - or rather high-end server - configuration, speed (seek time) is the crucial factor. Increased rotation speed mostly serves to reduce the real-life seek times. Any density limitations are overcome by (noisy) RAID configurations that would be unaffordable/insane for "a couple of users at a time" configurations.
Another big hurdle is the plain vanilla PCI bus. It's 128MB/s total maximum, and 128MB/s for HD alone is very much wishful thinking when there are network cards, sound cards and the like connected to the very same bus. SATA on its own can do nothing about it. Increasing the rotation speed in order to get higher sustained transfer rate (and lower real-life seek times) would be rather useless when the ongoing IDE density race can accomplish the same thing. IMO, again IMO, we won't be seeing higher rotation speeds until mainstream IDE controllers (SATA?) are be connected to something <i>much</i> faster and more scalable than PCI bus.
In the meantime, the IDE trend seems to be about density, seek time and rotation speed. Pick one, and cover any shortcomings in the remaining two with firmware optimizations and bigger cache. IMO, WD has already paved the way for choosing density over the other two with their JB drives (8MB cache) and by offering three-platter 200GB IDE drives.
Who'll dare to argue? :smile:
<font color=red><b><i>You want WHAT on the #$#%## CEILING?!</i></b></font color=red> -Michelangelo