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More info?)
Ray Johnstone wrote:
>The only estimate I know of is Littlewood's. He deduced an upper
>bound of 10^10^70.5.
In _Programming a Computer for Playing Chess_ (found in Levy's
_Computer Chess Compendium_) Shannon estimates 64!/(32!*8!^2*2!^6),
or roughly 10^43.
Also see:
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Chess.html
http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~flab/chess/statistics-positions.html
http://www.research.att.com/cgi-bin/access.cgi/as/njas/sequences/eisA.cgi?Anum=A006494
http://www.research.att.com/cgi-bin/access.cgi/as/njas/sequences/eisA.cgi?Anum=A007545
http://www.research.att.com/cgi-bin/access.cgi/as/njas/sequences/eisA.cgi?Anum=A019319
http://www.combinatorics.org/Volume_11/Abstracts/v11i2a4.html
http://anduin.eldar.org/~problemi/papers.html
http://ite.pubs.informs.org/Vol2No2/ChlondToase/
In my opinion, all of the above calculations are wrong. Because a
game of chess can be infinitely long, there are an infinite number
of possible games.
---------------------------------------------------------
LONGEST POSSIBLE CHESS GAME CALCULATION:
By Guy Macon <http://www.guymacon.com/>
Here is my calculation for the longest possible chess
game before one of the players can claim a draw under
FIDE rules. (If nobody claims a draw the players can
continue to push pieces back and forth forever and the
game is infinitely long - and boring to calculate.) See
<http://www.fide.com/official/handbook.asp?level=EE101>
Note to the non-chessplayer: a "ply" is a black piece
changing position or a white piece changing position.
Chessplayers call ten black piece moving and ten white
pieces moving "ten moves"/"twenty plies." Non-chess-players
often call the same sequence "twenty moves."
To calculate the longest possible chess game before one
of the players can claim a draw under FIDE rules:
Start with 32 chess pieces.
Move 100 plies, avoiding repeating positions.
On ply 100, move a pawn or make a capture.
Repeat N times until you make the last capture that
leaves 2 kings.
So how big is N?
There are 30 100-ply sequences ending with a capture.
There are 96 100-ply sequences ending with a pawn move.
8 of these sequences end with a pawn move that is also a capture.
1 of those sequences is only 98 plies long so that black can start
taking his turn moving pawns and making captures.
Assuming FIDE rules, that comes to a total of
((100*(30+96-8))-1)=11799 plies until the game is over.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Here is one way of reaching the maximum number of moves
in a chess game (see calculation above). Assume that
each ply described has 99 or (in one case) 98 "wasted"
plies between the plies described..
White advances his A,C,E,G pawns as far as they will go.
Black advances his B,D,F,H pawns as far as they will go.
White captures every black piece except 8 pawns, 2 knights,
1 bishop, one rook, and a King.
The white pawns on A,C,E,G capture the knights, bishops and rook,
passing and freeing the black pawns blocking them.
The now-unblocked black pawns move forward, promote, and move into
position to be taken by the white pawns on B,D,F,H, unblocking the
black pawns on B,D,F,H.
The now-unblocked black pawns move forward, promote, and are taken.
Black now only has a king. (Here is the lone 98 ply sequence) The
black king captures something, and the game continues a capture
by black on every 100th ply. When black captures the last white
piece, there are only the two kings left and the game is a draw
after exactly (and no more than) 11799 plies.
Comments/corrections are welcome.
Guy Macon
<a href="http://www.guymacon.com/">
http://www.guymacon.com/
</a>
---------------------------------------------------------
BTW, here is how to generate an infinite number of games:
Push pieces back and forth 1,000 times, then checkmate.
Push pieces back and forth 1,001 times, then checkmate.
Push pieces back and forth 1,002 times, then checkmate.
Push pieces back and forth 1,003 times, then checkmate.
Push pieces back and forth 1,004 times, then checkmate.
....