Archived from groups: rec.games.miniatures.historical (
More info?)
"Bob Jones" <highwiremedia@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:73e9b810.0411010622.49c9420f@posting.google.com...
> "Ty" <tbeardSPAM@tyler.net> wrote in message
> news:<10ob4f8g3b68hb7@corp.supernews.com>...
>> > Oh you are, Ty, you are. Personally I thought the ng was much more
>> > interesting in the old days, but if people like it better now then
>> > that's life, I guess.
>>
>> I guess we could liven it up with a discussion about the election.
>>
>> --Ty
>
> BJ: Nahhh! You'd make a prediction and be wrong...and then I'd point
> out just how wrong you had been...and then you'd say something clever
> like "Liar,liar! Pants on fire!"
Only if you resort to falsehoods that can easily be confirmed with your own
evidence...
> and then claim that the electoral
> college was either a.) A great thing, or b.) An evil liberal plot-
> depending on whether George got a majority of votes while losing the
> presidency.
<shrug>
Okay, you talked me into it.
I generally blame defeats on the candidate, not on other factors. I'll leave
the conspiracy theories to you, Bob.
FWIW, I like the electoral college and always have. Even when Clinton (and
her husband) won in 1992 and 96.
IMHO, if Bush loses, it will be his own fault (absent convincing evidence of
voter fraud on an unprecedented scale). How incompetent do you have to be to
lose to a pompous, lightweight trophy husband?
The same with Kerry. How incompetent do you have to be to lose to a redneck
from Texas with a speech impediment?
Besides, there's a silver lining no matter who wins:
1. If Kerry wins, then us right wingers will never have to hear from the
Clintons again. And I know more than a few Republicans who would make that
trade...
2. If Bush wins, then you lefties get Hillary in 2008 -- which is what you
really want anyhow.
And no matter who wins, certain things make me less worried about the
outcome of the election:
1. Barring a spectacular failure in the polling data, the Congress will
remain firmly in Republican hands. (Note that a number of polls failed to
predict the Republican congressional victory in 1994, so there's some
precedent for a surprise). The real political power in this country is in
the Congress -- something the pre-Clinton Democrats understood rather well.
If given a choice, I'll trade the presidency for the Congress any day.
Indeed, I happen to think that this is what allowed Clinton to have such a
successful presidency (in economic terms anyhow). Clinton, as a Democrat,
could propose things like Free Trade and Welfare Reform without being
excoriated by the press (and his fellow Democrats). The Republican Congress
made it possible for such things to get passed and implemented.
2. Although I do not like or respect Kerry, I think it's very unlikely that
he will do much damage to our foreign policy. I expect him to contunue the
same course as Bush -- and I don't expect French troops to be behind us (and
I do mean "behind" us) in Iraq. Of course, the absence of our French
"allies" should make the British and UK troops breathe easier, but I
digress. Kerry's tax and spending policies would slow the economy down, but
it shouldn't kill the economy either. Plus, a Republican controlled Congress
is unlikely to give Kerry those things anyhow.
3. Perhaps I am unduly optimistic, but I really don't expect as close an
election (in the Electoral College) as the pundits are generally predicting.
I think that one side or the other will do much better than the polls
predict. This is mostly a gut feeling and isn't supported by evidence -
kinda like everything *you* post, Bob. An argument for Kerry winning a
surprising victory is the huge number of new voters (who traditionally favor
Democrats) that have signed up. My understanding is that the pollsters are
having a hard time quantifying this new factor. An argument for Bush winning
a surprising victory is that (a) polls rate either Iraq or the War on Terror
as the most important issue for ~60% of the people. These are "leadership
issues" and Bush has a decisive edge in the polls on these issues. Seems odd
for someone to say "Iraq is the most important issue for me, I think Bush
will do the best job, I think Bush is most trustworthy, decisive, etc. But
I'm voting for Kerry." Of course, bad weather in certain key states could be
disastrous for the Democrats.
4. If it's close, whoever loses will be faced with a dilemma. I really think
that the American people don't want a repeat of 2000. If it's close, the
loser well give it up because his party will risk a backlash at against
perceived poor sportsmanship. When one recalls the close margins that Ford
and Nixon lost by, one hopes that the loser will follow their example.
5. If you think that Bush will win, I'd buy as many puts as possible on the
stocks of companies that make antidepressants...
As an interesting aside, I was invited to be a poll watcher in Ohio last
week. Seems someone had me figured as a conservative lawyer (who saw *that*
coming?). They would pay airfare and expenses -- but not any wages. I
declined. It just isn't that important to me.
--Ty
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