Archived from groups: rec.games.miniatures.warhammer (More info?)
Wow, so I figured the topic hadn't been beat down enough. Anyway I got
to thinking about how to determine how close the armies are as far as
shooting. So I set up a matrix of some basic troop types as attackers
and targets. Calculated the probability of a kill based on basic
weapons normalized the probability based on cost of attacker and cost of
victim:
#shots x %hit x %wound x %unsaved x Target cost / Shooter cost
There are a lot of assumptions:
No upgrades to a squad (no heavy weapons, special weapons)
No assault
Range is constant (Basically straight up fire fight at max range)
Snipers hit 5/6 wound 50%
Gauss weapons always wounds on a 6
No rapid firing
Terminators and daemons get their special saves
So then I calculated the probability for each shooting unit vs each of
the following targets
Space marine, SM Bike, Terminator
Imperial Guard, Stormtrooper, Conscript
Boyz, Gretchin
Guardian, Dire Avng., Dark Reaper, Wraithlord
Necron, Immortal
Tau, Kroot
Immortal
Termagant, Genestealer, Tyranid Warrior
Dark Eldar Warrior
Grey Knight,Sister of Battle
Chaos Space Marine
Bloodletter,Plague Bearer,Horror,Daemonette,Flesh Hound,Daemonic Beasts
And then summed the total probabilities to see how each shooter was in
the 40k universe. It ends up being the ratio of points killed per point
spent if they shoot at all those targets listed one turn at maximum
range. Higher is better.
On to the rankings:
Guardian 16.2
Dire Avenger 14.4
Fire Dragon 13.1
Dark Reaper 10.0
Ratling 9.0
Gretchin 9.0
Immortal 8.9
Tau 8.6
Kroot 8.4
Termagent 8.3
DE Warrior 7.5
Ork Boyz 7.3
Grey Knight 6.9 (Power armor)
Conscript 6.7
Imp Guard 6.7
Chaos SM 6.2
Space Marine 5.8
SM Scout Sniper 5.5
Warp Spider 5.3
Eldar Ranger 5.2
Necron 5.0
Stormtrooper 4.5
Terminator 4.3
If you rapid fire inside 12" then the rating for a given unit would
double and average out to a 50% increase in rate of fire resulting in a
change in the rankings:
Guardian 16.2
Dire Avenger 14.4
Fire Dragon 13.1
Tau 13.0
Kroot 12.6
DE Warrior 11.3
Ork Boyz 11.0
Conscript 10.1
Imperial Guard 10.1
Dark Reaper 10.0
Chaos SM 9.3
Ratling 9.0
Gretchin 9.0
Immortal 8.9
Space Marine 8.6
Termagant 8.3
Warp Spider 8.0
Necron 7.4
GreyKnight 6.9
Stormtrooper 6.8
SM Scout 5.5
Eldar Ranger 5.2
Terminator 4.3
Obviously, this gives a distorted perspective and obviously the cost of
a model integrates more factors than ability to shoot. By this 4
terminators would be better than 1 guardian, however I would expect that
one terminator could take on 4 guardians. I haven't done it yet but it
looks like if you plotted it you would get a nice bell curve with the
space marines in the middle. There does seem to be a large spread over
all troops, but maybe not in a way that is predictive of one force being
better than another in general. I am contemplating repeating for
assualt, although it will be more complicated. I am still reviewing the
data. If anyone is interested in the raw data let me know, excel format.
Maybe I could post it somewhere.
Master Ravenclaw
Wow, so I figured the topic hadn't been beat down enough. Anyway I got
to thinking about how to determine how close the armies are as far as
shooting. So I set up a matrix of some basic troop types as attackers
and targets. Calculated the probability of a kill based on basic
weapons normalized the probability based on cost of attacker and cost of
victim:
#shots x %hit x %wound x %unsaved x Target cost / Shooter cost
There are a lot of assumptions:
No upgrades to a squad (no heavy weapons, special weapons)
No assault
Range is constant (Basically straight up fire fight at max range)
Snipers hit 5/6 wound 50%
Gauss weapons always wounds on a 6
No rapid firing
Terminators and daemons get their special saves
So then I calculated the probability for each shooting unit vs each of
the following targets
Space marine, SM Bike, Terminator
Imperial Guard, Stormtrooper, Conscript
Boyz, Gretchin
Guardian, Dire Avng., Dark Reaper, Wraithlord
Necron, Immortal
Tau, Kroot
Immortal
Termagant, Genestealer, Tyranid Warrior
Dark Eldar Warrior
Grey Knight,Sister of Battle
Chaos Space Marine
Bloodletter,Plague Bearer,Horror,Daemonette,Flesh Hound,Daemonic Beasts
And then summed the total probabilities to see how each shooter was in
the 40k universe. It ends up being the ratio of points killed per point
spent if they shoot at all those targets listed one turn at maximum
range. Higher is better.
On to the rankings:
Guardian 16.2
Dire Avenger 14.4
Fire Dragon 13.1
Dark Reaper 10.0
Ratling 9.0
Gretchin 9.0
Immortal 8.9
Tau 8.6
Kroot 8.4
Termagent 8.3
DE Warrior 7.5
Ork Boyz 7.3
Grey Knight 6.9 (Power armor)
Conscript 6.7
Imp Guard 6.7
Chaos SM 6.2
Space Marine 5.8
SM Scout Sniper 5.5
Warp Spider 5.3
Eldar Ranger 5.2
Necron 5.0
Stormtrooper 4.5
Terminator 4.3
If you rapid fire inside 12" then the rating for a given unit would
double and average out to a 50% increase in rate of fire resulting in a
change in the rankings:
Guardian 16.2
Dire Avenger 14.4
Fire Dragon 13.1
Tau 13.0
Kroot 12.6
DE Warrior 11.3
Ork Boyz 11.0
Conscript 10.1
Imperial Guard 10.1
Dark Reaper 10.0
Chaos SM 9.3
Ratling 9.0
Gretchin 9.0
Immortal 8.9
Space Marine 8.6
Termagant 8.3
Warp Spider 8.0
Necron 7.4
GreyKnight 6.9
Stormtrooper 6.8
SM Scout 5.5
Eldar Ranger 5.2
Terminator 4.3
Obviously, this gives a distorted perspective and obviously the cost of
a model integrates more factors than ability to shoot. By this 4
terminators would be better than 1 guardian, however I would expect that
one terminator could take on 4 guardians. I haven't done it yet but it
looks like if you plotted it you would get a nice bell curve with the
space marines in the middle. There does seem to be a large spread over
all troops, but maybe not in a way that is predictive of one force being
better than another in general. I am contemplating repeating for
assualt, although it will be more complicated. I am still reviewing the
data. If anyone is interested in the raw data let me know, excel format.
Maybe I could post it somewhere.
Master Ravenclaw
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