Ah, at last I see some posters with some knowledge. I just joined this forum and was starting to think that it was full of people who only "think" they are experts.
Anyway, I too am in a quandary over this issue.
I am ready to upgrade, and here is how I see it:
Athlon XP: No upgrade path
Athlon64: Better, no dual memory, questionable upgrade path
Athlon FX: Just too damned expensive ;-)
Opteron: Buy cheaper now, wait for FX or other Opterion to come down. Motherboards a bit sketchy.
My idea is that you buy an Opteron now to save money. It does not matter much if you get one slower than the FX, if you get the 1.8GHz model ($200) with a nice video card and lots of RAM, you are still going to be in the running with the fastest Athlon XPs, and not far behind the 64 and the FX.
But, it sounds like going this route will put me forever in Opteron land, since the FX might be a one-shot deal and it's successors may be this upcoming 939-pin variant I am assuming won't work on my 940-pin motherboard.
The motherboards are another issue, the nForce is flawed and both it and the VIA are very new and in development. I am sure within one or two versions this will be fixed. But then, those might be the new 939 that might not fit my Opteron, and who knows if they will offer a 940 version.
Registered memory is a little bit of a problem. It's actually an advantage if you like a stable system, but the registered part of the RAM cost you a clock cycle. This amounts to only a couple of percentage points in actual performance though.
I really wish Tom included benchmarks for Opteron to show side-by-side with the others.
Based on this info, it looks like I may go for the Athlon 64 (the 3000 model). It is so fast anyways for what I would do with it now (UT2003/4) it will carry me for the next 1-2 years. By that time, it will be time for a cpu-mobo-ram upgrade anyway. I think this might be the best cost/performance situation. Teaming it up with Geforce FX 5900, dual Raptors and a GIG of premium corsair, I think I will be fine. Who knows, maybe I will get lucky and AMD will embrace 754 as the platform of choice and offer upgrades. Maybe I will have an easy mobo-only upgrade soon and squeeze some more juice out.
I think what will happen is the 939 will take over due to the dual-channel memory issue, and I would not even be surprised if we start seeing dual-CPU configurations showing up since the newer games have been eyeballing this idea for a little while. But, for an upgrade done "Today", I am unwilling to fork out so much money for such buggy motherboards. I think during the course of 2004 we will see a 939 with PCI-X, dual-channel (non-registered) memory, and probably some other goodies.
Would you guys say this is a fair assessment?
-Deformer