Intel's netburst is turning into netbust.
Roadmaps show Prescott will intro @3.4 GHz around the end of this year / early next year and scale to 3.8 GHz by the end of next year. 4 GHz in december is a remote possibility. That is 18% in a year from here.
Even worse, if you compare it to the 3.06 GHz P4 launched in november 2002, reaching 3.8 GHz by november 2004 gives us a 12% clock increase per year over 2 years ! I don't think intel executed that poorly ever. TWELVE PERCENT ! Thats like going from 60 to 66 MHz.
Northwood/Willamette on the other hand, scaled from 1.5 GHz to 3 GHz in exactly 2 years. A 50% clock increase per year over 2 years. To match that again, intel would need a 5 GHz chip somewhere by the end of 2004 and a ~7 GHz by 2005. Just doesnt seem very likely.
AMD has had a tough year scaling Tbred and Barton, but K8 is looking healthy. a 2.4 GHz FX is expected this year, that is a 33% increase over the initial 1.8 GHz K8 (opteron) launched in may, roughly a 40% increase per year.
Also, let's assume a 2 GHz A64 to roughly equal a 3.2C and ignore better clock scaling of the K8 and better IPC for Prescott; from 3.2 -> 4 GHz is 25%. Does anyone seriously doubt AMD will have trouble releasing a ~2.5 GHz chip by the <b>end of next year </b>? They may not even need a die shrink for that. 2.4 GHz parts (FXs) are expected this year. Leaves them a full year and a die shrink to find 100 extra MHz and move those bin splits from low volume FX's to medium volume A64's.
Looks like intel's netburst effect is wearing out, and they are hitting a brick wall, and AMD will have an easy year. They can screw up their .09 migration and still conformtably lead.
Roadmaps show Prescott will intro @3.4 GHz around the end of this year / early next year and scale to 3.8 GHz by the end of next year. 4 GHz in december is a remote possibility. That is 18% in a year from here.
Even worse, if you compare it to the 3.06 GHz P4 launched in november 2002, reaching 3.8 GHz by november 2004 gives us a 12% clock increase per year over 2 years ! I don't think intel executed that poorly ever. TWELVE PERCENT ! Thats like going from 60 to 66 MHz.
Northwood/Willamette on the other hand, scaled from 1.5 GHz to 3 GHz in exactly 2 years. A 50% clock increase per year over 2 years. To match that again, intel would need a 5 GHz chip somewhere by the end of 2004 and a ~7 GHz by 2005. Just doesnt seem very likely.
AMD has had a tough year scaling Tbred and Barton, but K8 is looking healthy. a 2.4 GHz FX is expected this year, that is a 33% increase over the initial 1.8 GHz K8 (opteron) launched in may, roughly a 40% increase per year.
Also, let's assume a 2 GHz A64 to roughly equal a 3.2C and ignore better clock scaling of the K8 and better IPC for Prescott; from 3.2 -> 4 GHz is 25%. Does anyone seriously doubt AMD will have trouble releasing a ~2.5 GHz chip by the <b>end of next year </b>? They may not even need a die shrink for that. 2.4 GHz parts (FXs) are expected this year. Leaves them a full year and a die shrink to find 100 extra MHz and move those bin splits from low volume FX's to medium volume A64's.
Looks like intel's netburst effect is wearing out, and they are hitting a brick wall, and AMD will have an easy year. They can screw up their .09 migration and still conformtably lead.