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Windows itanium best price performance

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March 16, 2004 6:20:33 PM

That's good news for Intel. Since Itanium was not selling that well.
March 16, 2004 8:36:48 PM

they are expecting 250 000 itanium sold in 2004 at a overall of 2000 Us $ each that make 500 000 000 $ that not what i call low.Just in 2003 2 000 000 000 $ for itanium cpu only add compiler tool chipset network.......

i need to change useur name.
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March 16, 2004 9:01:04 PM

250k chips, times $1600 or so gross margin (using your generous asp of $2000) is $400M a year; pocket change, and not even enough to pay for the ongoing R&D each year (estimated at a $4-500M/year), let alone begin to recover the ~$5 billion already invested over the last 10 years. Take into account devaluation/inflation, and intel better start shipping several millions of Itanium cpu's per year Real Soon (TM) if they ever want to break even on IPF.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
March 16, 2004 11:36:58 PM

Intel offer some network produce and suffer heavy lose at each year still they continue it take time before the investement start to pay.

i need to change useur name.
March 16, 2004 11:38:26 PM

They dont need to much more that 1 million ipf to have a profit margin

i need to change useur name.
March 17, 2004 5:24:31 AM

One million is only 10x the yearly volume they have been shipping now, almost ten years after the project started. If they double their sales this year, and once again next year, and once again the year after they will be close to breaking even THAT YEAR. But by then the total dollar corrected investment will have increased to $7-$10B, which only requires an additinonal 5 million processors (50x their current volume) on top of the eight fold increase of their yearly sales today. Sure looks like a great moneymaker.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
March 17, 2004 5:34:55 AM

And the only reason they sold so many was because of the $0 down , return it if you aint 100% satisfied program.
March 17, 2004 1:10:55 PM

1 at the investement level many thing were been reuse on P4 ligne.2 HP have pay also a part of the original developement and compiling tool.

With a average price of 2000$ us a 1 million copy or 2 billion.In 6 year return on investement is made after ward is profit.Thing are like that in the semi industrie it take a while before money start to show it face.

i need to change useur name.
March 17, 2004 4:49:15 PM

>With a average price of 2000$ us a 1 million copy or 2
>billion.

*) 2B Revenue, not margin. Those chips cost money to make as well.
*) 1 Million is the most optimistic estimate I ever heard. To achieve such numbers, it should include low end 1/2P server, HPC and workstation because there just arent enough superdomes and Altix servers sold per year, that means significantly lower ASP's.
*) even so, using your super optimistic numbers, there won't be a profit for years to come if ever. 500M/year development cost for 10 years, add 4% per year, and you get around $7B today. even selling 1M (which is TEN TIMES as much as last year) at a gross margin (not asp) of say $1500 minus 500M/year ongoing R&D and marketing means it will take another ten year to break even. That is using extremely optimistic numbers (sales & ASP), four to five times as much as intels own forecost for this year.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
March 17, 2004 6:34:25 PM

I dontthink intel will sold much more that 250 000 itanium in 2004 should be all in 2H even Madsion 1.7Ghz 9MB got release.In 2005 even montencio will be release on 90NM it will be hard to not chosse Montecio for anything bigger that 16 way.There still a lot of big iron OS that will be ready for itanium in 2004 VMS NKS.Also you should include network chipset software they can sold with those big box.

On the breaking even it may take a good 12 year like you say.If itanium continue growing sale intel will continue it agressif R&D.You have to admit that itanium have start from far and now it a real alternative

i need to change useur name.
March 17, 2004 11:56:05 PM

http://www.webprowire.com/summaries/537932.html

R&D is in the billions, Intel is has 900 million dollars available this year for grants to be given away. Up a little from last year.

I think this years budget is around 10 billion dollars, up just a bit from last year.

I2 has its place with military and goverment sales alone and projects already in place ensure its sucess, not the consumer sales. But those sales are nice and do help.

But it is a easy angle for you to rag on, that is because you are clueless like most of the other folks around here so who is to doubt you? fricken midget mentalities all worried about what Intel spends on what...



<b>My sig is better than yours.<b>
March 18, 2004 12:17:03 AM

Fugger calling P4Man clueless

Fugger I did not know you had such a great sence of humour. I got a great laugh out of that one.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
March 18, 2004 12:27:35 AM

Considering P4man or BB as it used to be never provides links for his chatter. I would say FUGGER is right on, P4man talks about everything and knows everything but day after day it seems he knows less and less.

Take the thrashing Crashman gave him, it's looking all of us in the eye's.

Xeon

<font color=orange>Scratch Here To Reveal Prize</font color=orange>
March 18, 2004 12:50:17 AM

You know something spud. None of us are perfect including you and me. One thing I do know is if p4man is wrong he will at least admit it. I cannot say I have seen p4man make many if any mistakes but I'm sure he has. The guy knows his stuff and he knows more than me or you on the high end tech stuff.

Yes I knew he was BB he's not trying to hide it. But ya gotta admit Fugger calling him clueless was pretty comical.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
March 18, 2004 12:51:53 AM

Re: Take the thrashing Crashman gave him, it's looking all of us in the eye's.

HUH.. spud you got a link to back that up?

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
March 18, 2004 12:53:22 AM

Well ya FUGGER trademark is his over statements and rude comments. My opinion of P4Man is pretty low and I am sure I am on the bottom of his list too.

Xeon

<font color=orange>Scratch Here To Reveal Prize</font color=orange>
March 18, 2004 12:57:25 AM

Oh the VIA thing Crash gave him a mouth full.

Xeon

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March 18, 2004 1:05:33 AM

I was involved in that thead as well and I sure did not see it that way (at all) I gotta hunch p4man will be making at least one more post in that thread.

VIA has a past history for making substandard boards chipsets. But I think p4man was agreeing with me that its just that HISTORY. the via A64 chipsets have been out for a while and there does not seem to be anything wrong with them TODAY. That morral issue is a dead horse it's very complicated as you fully know. If you don't like VIA then don't buy it but don't say the current chipset is bad unless you can back it up.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
March 18, 2004 1:25:36 AM

Got a link to the thread? I never seen it. =)

Many budgets this year are astronomical, lets take for example the department of energy, a I2 customer. Up from 18 billion dollars.

<A HREF="http://www.energy.gov/engine/content.do?PUBLIC_ID=12843..." target="_new">2004 DOE budget</A>



<b>My sig is better than yours.<b>
March 18, 2004 1:36:16 AM

Kinney's thread about not buying Intel.

Xeon

<font color=orange>Scratch Here To Reveal Prize</font color=orange>
March 18, 2004 7:00:58 AM

>R&D is in the billions, Intel is has 900 million dollars
>available this year for grants to be given away. Up a
>little from last year.

That is total R&D, my $500M estimate was limited to Itanium specific R&D. What exactly are you claiming ?

>I2 has its place with military and goverment sales alone
>and projects already in place ensure its sucess, not the
>consumer sales. But those sales are nice and do help.

Do the math, and tell me its a financial succes. Its a financial disaster so far, and if they don't manage to sell millions per year instead of the 100k they sold last year, it will continue to be a red ink bleeding project.

>But it is a easy angle for you to rag on, that is because
>you are clueless like most of the other folks around here
>so who is to doubt you? fricken midget mentalities all
>worried about what Intel spends on what...

I don't "worry" about it, intel has deep pockets, no one is arguing that. But if you consider 100k units a success, you should put that in perspective. Its a modest commercial success, but it is not nearly enough to break even on the collosal investments intel has poured into this. Nor do I think intel ever will break even on Itanium now that EM64T will make it hard, if not impossible to grow Itaniums market substantially. The ammount of money intel invested in IPF only makes sense if they expected it to go mainstream at some point in the future, it doesnt make sense if you are only going to sell cpu's (not systems , software and services like HP/IBM/SGI,..) in the big tin and big iron markets. There is just not the required volume to make money on CPU's only.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
March 18, 2004 7:24:57 AM

That is great for HP, SGI & co, but it really doesnt help intel all that much.

As an example, a 64 way Itanium based Superdome costs around $8M for just the hardware. Support contracts and software would increase that number significanly. Lets be conservative, and estimate it at only $10M for hardware, software and a 3 year service contract. Of that ammount, intel catches 64x$4.226 in the best case (most expensive madison chips, no discount). $270k revenue for intel on a $10+M deal: 3%

Reality will be even lower, as support and software are likely a lot more expensive, and those machines are operated for more than 3 years. I'm also fairly sure HP gets a discount on their chips given the fact they mostly developped Madison in the first place. Intels real part of the cake might be around 1%.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
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