I think AMD is planning on going dual core on servers/workstations first (that is, we're going to see a dual core Opteron before we see a dual core A64). So the first dual core solutions will be very-high end only, and It won't be AMD-only. Intel itself is prepping the Montecito - a gargantuan processor with over a billion transistors - that will be out in 2005 (24MB cache, BTW). Within 2005, the Itanium family will get a 667Mhz FSB, and Montecito will probably be out by 2H 2005 with 667Mhz FSB; if well executed, this processor could throw some light at the Itaniums... which are currently a complete PR failure. After all, they need to polish it quickly... 'cause right now, its image stinks, and there's little short-term hope of real improvement.
And there will also be another dual-core processor from Intel in 2005: the dual-P-M-cored Jonah. Quite interesting features, and it will probably be a slim, efficient dual-core processor as opposed to the heavy-duty Montecito.
So your guess is safe indeed. Dual core desktops will only truly materialize (at the high-end desktops) in 2 years from now at earliest, and will only truly become mainstream later down the road. Bear in mind that <b>software must also be multithreaded</b> to take advantage of this (so those programmers that complained about HT will <i>really</i> have to change their minds)... This will make the transition more difficult. Dual core is not necessarily new anyway; the Power4 is already a multicore processor (with like 11cm by 11cm die - yes, centimeters!)...
But anyway, the whole concept of multicore is quite interesting. Dual-core is something that we will be seeing next year in more detail anyway.
<i><font color=red>You never change the existing reality by fighting it. Instead, create a new model that makes the old one obsolete</font color=red> - Buckminster Fuller </i>