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Investing in AMD OPINIONS

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May 19, 2004 2:26:08 AM

Ok I am thinking about investing a considerable amount of money in AMD.

I am a little nervous, why. Because a few years back I lost my left nut buying bre-x minerals on margin. Very traumatic I lost everything I had. I am not going to go into bre-x, why I bought it or why it fell. I am just saying Bre-x still haunts me to this day.

When ATI came out with the 9700-pro I looked at the books the market and almost but did not buy ATI…. I did not invest in ATI because of the bre-x disaster. I have seriously regretted not investing in ATI at that time.

So this brings me to my dilemma, I have squirreled away some serious cash after the bre-x defeat. And I am seriously thinking about investing in AMD. The more I look into Advanced Micro Devices the more I like it. However, this is money we are talking about not some personal favorite name brand product. So I am looking for any reasonable positive negative feed back on AMD. Please let’s not turn this into a flame war.

OK we all know Intel is in some trouble (not financially) with their cpu’s design characteristics, seems bad news after bad. Then we know AMD has been more successful with a64 but still the 90 nanometer is unproven or unknown.

From what I have been reading AMD is using SOI (Silicone on insulator) for 90 nanometer, AMD has expected serious problems with die shrinks for years now and always looked or invested in SOI R&D to solve these expected future problems. AFAIK IBM also played a role in SOI.. AMD, IBM have shared technology in this area. It’s starting to look to me that AMD made the right bet with SOI, SOI is supposed to solve leakage heat problems but is extremely tricky to implement. Takes time and practice to get it right. Never mind that they have been working on SOI for years, the original barton was supposed to be SOI but AMD could not pull it off. However AMD states 90 nanometer is sampling well right now with solids yields. Shipping in 3rd quarter.

So I am looking for positive and negative reasons to invest. I know AMD is doing well with flash (very high prices right now) they are ecstatic about their mirrorbit technology. Although I do not know much about their mirrorbit patent. I do know they seem excited about it. Personally I think the real growth lies in cpu’s and lets face it they are doing well today. Analysts I have read say cpu’s growth should be strong this year and next. The way I see it with AMD entering a new market,,, servers with opterons their ASP (average selling price) is much higher per cpu. But the fact remains AMD only has so much capacity. Fab36 300 waffer won’t be producing until late 2005 at the earliest probably later. I am not sure if AMD will, could out source excess to IBM or TI.

I have read that Intel is now left with excess inventory and AMD can hardly keep up with demand. Obviously if this is true it’s good for AMD. I also read that in desktops AMD has now passed Intel in volume world wide. However Intel is still dominant in mobile’s and servers x86. So Intel still sells the vast majority of x86 cpu’s.

I know Intel has huge resources way more fabs, marketing and a talented team on their side. But I think AMD has done a lot in coming from behind. If AMD can capture 35 – 40% of x86 (in the next year or 2) cpu market and offer a superior product I believe they can influence price. All these if’s but and what if’s,,,, guess that’s why I am posting here. I did also hear AMD plans on a heavy advertising campaign with windows 64 but what’s the point if the fabs are maxed out.

I was considering investing in ATI ((NOT)) cause I hate nvidia but because I thought ATI had a unique opportunity. And I am looking at AMD not cause I hate Intel but because I believe AMD is in a unique position right now. I see down side as limited in short to medium term and upside with huge potential in the short to medium term. Long term over 2 years who knows. I have never owned AMD stock but I am seriously looking at it at $14.00 US.

All opinions welcome.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.

More about : investing amd opinions

May 19, 2004 2:37:51 AM

You must be out of your mind! I bought ATI several years ago at 7 and sold it at 14. IT'S STILL THERE! AMD is not far ahead hanging around 15. Go to a stock board with this drivel.

"I am become death, the destroyer of worlds. Now, let's eat!
May 19, 2004 2:53:06 AM

At best AMD can gain few point of market share

i need to change useur name.
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May 19, 2004 3:33:06 AM

Re: You must be out of your mind! I bought ATI several years ago at 7 and sold it at 14. IT'S STILL THERE! AMD is not far ahead hanging around 15. Go to a stock board with this drivel.

Who cares what you bought ATI at! When I was loking at it it was $6.00 of a low of $4.00. Peaked at almost $18.00 and I am sure I would have got at least $15.00 for it. Thats like 150% in a year.

If you have nothing useful to contribute why don't you take your greasy a$$ to a chat forum.

I am looking for opininions from people like Mephistopheles p4-man juin and anyone else with somthing useful to say. (although juin says only few point of market share) fair enough all opinions welcome. But your idiot advice is not.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
a b à CPUs
May 19, 2004 4:53:51 AM

AMD is trading below 14 right now. If the stock market stabilizes I expect it will hit 18. I was guessing 20 earlier, but economic progress isn't as great as Mr. Bush would have us believe.

Get an automatic stock trading program, AMD stock fluctuates, set it to sell at 16 and buy at 14 automatically, and you might double your money in less than a year! That is, unless AMD makes a RUN, in which case your program would quit buying...

<font color=blue>Only a place as big as the internet could be home to a hero as big as Crashman!</font color=blue>
<font color=red>Only a place as big as the internet could be home to an ego as large as Crashman's!</font color=red>
May 19, 2004 5:08:12 AM

If you want to buy, buy now ! quote went down 7% this week.
I think you should buy, i did it at 7$ 7.5$ and 14.25$.
I will keep them for a while, in a few years when Opteron has taken more marketshare AMD will make much more profit, that would be a nice moment to sell 50% of my share.
The rest is for later...
Good luck, and very interesting tread !


Toms Hardware Site is a joke !
May 19, 2004 5:16:15 AM

DooD, I bought Tyson (TSN) at 13 in January. It is over 19 bucks in four months. People gotta eat, they don't gotta necessarily buy new computers all the time. Too bad we didn't see TASR. 400% in a year


"I am become death, the destroyer of worlds. Now, let's eat!
May 19, 2004 5:42:47 AM

Re: AMD is trading below 14 right now. If the stock market stabilizes I expect it will hit 18.

Yes I have been watching closly for the last few days. Was 18 now 14 yes it could easy bounce back to $18 or fall to $11. I'd like to think this thing could hit 36 or so in 18 months. Yes that's lofty and no way near garunteed. But I'm agressive and I am hopping it's a real possiblity but on any bad news I'd dump it in a heart beat.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
May 19, 2004 5:44:48 AM

Re: i did it at 7$ 7.5$ and 14.25$.

I would not get too greedy. Fear and greed that often drive the market.


If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
May 19, 2004 5:46:07 AM

Re: DooD, I bought Tyson (TSN) at 13 in January. It is over 19 bucks in four months. People gotta eat, they don't gotta necessarily buy new computers all the time. Too bad we didn't see TASR. 400% in a year.

How is this helpful?


If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
a b à CPUs
May 19, 2004 5:52:17 AM

I just don't see enough strength in the stock market for AMD to double their share value for the forseeable future. But I've watched them for YEARS and know you can make money buying them below their average value and selling them above average. And in the current market, low 14 and high 16 looks like a reasonable buy/sell value.

Remember that even one buy at 14 and sell at 16 durring a 1 year period beats the rates of most investment funds, etc.

<font color=blue>Only a place as big as the internet could be home to a hero as big as Crashman!</font color=blue>
<font color=red>Only a place as big as the internet could be home to an ego as large as Crashman's!</font color=red>
May 19, 2004 5:57:54 AM

I am just saying that I would not be in tech right now. Record high oil, steel, concrete, gas, soybean, corn, you name it. Interest rates will go up and people will be squeezed. Toyota is running Prius assembly lines 24 hours a day. Dealers down here are asking $4000.00 over list. Own any Toyota stock? Me neither! Warren Buffett lives four miles from me. What's he into? CASH! Of course, if you're a swing-trader, so be it. I'm thinking like Crashman though, the worst is yet to come. I'm not buying into this dog market right now. Woof! Woof! :smile:

"I am become death, the destroyer of worlds. Now, let's eat!
May 19, 2004 6:10:50 AM

Re: I just don't see enough strength in the stock market for AMD to double their share value for the forseeable future. But I've watched them for YEARS and know you can make money buying them below their average value and selling them above average. And in the current market, low 14 and high 16 looks like a reasonable buy/sell value.
Remember that even one buy at 14 and sell at 16 durring a 1 year period beats the rates of most investment funds, etc.

I don't personally see the market having much to do with it. Economy yes. but market no. It's the unique position amd is in that appeals to me. If the economy tanks that could through a wrench into it all foresure. But should somone sell intel amd today cause the economy might crash tomorrow.

The US economy is tetering right now but only due to the price of crude. I agree with the fact that the US economy is so huge 20 - 25% of world they could send the world to a recession but I think US would have to tank very bad for that. AMD does better outside of US and unless world economy tanks I do not think they would be effected as much as intel.

Valuable arguments non the less.


If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
a b à CPUs
May 19, 2004 6:58:18 AM

Lately AMD's stocks have been dropping whenever tech stocks in general drop, even a little. I've seen good reports for AMD result in the stock value dropping, and bad reports for Intel result in AMD's stock value dropping, it's like the majority of traders don't understand what these reports mean for AMD's bottom line!

<font color=blue>Only a place as big as the internet could be home to a hero as big as Crashman!</font color=blue>
<font color=red>Only a place as big as the internet could be home to an ego as large as Crashman's!</font color=red>
May 19, 2004 12:56:32 PM

Just my 2 cents.. but at the price they are trading now, I figure the future price will be much more dependant on overall stock market conditions than AMD's own performance. IOW, I am not sure they will significantly outperform Nasdaq. The current price already reflects their good outlook with opteron/A64.

I think you are too late. A while ago, AMD was trading just over $3. That is when I bought some. It was a gamble, either they would recover, and I'd cash in, or they would go chapter 11 and I could forget about my investment. I figured K8 just couldnt be all that bad and would have to improve their bottom line, plunged and I got lucky; sold my shares at just over $12 earlier this year. I don't have any more shares of them today, so there is your answer.... if I believed they would go up much more, I'd have kept some.

If I where to invest (or rather: gamble) some money on the industy now, i would probably buy some put options on Intel, as I think they will underperform Nasdaq over the next 12 months. They seem overrated as it is, I think AMD is currently valued about where I would expect them (relative to Nasdaq, wether or not the entire stock market will go up or down substantially is anyone's guess).

General piece of advice: never put all your money on one horse. You never know what could happen (for instance a major patent infringement case could literally bankrupt the company you invested in, especially if its a small company like AMD). I would even never invest all my money in stocks, even if diversified, and even if I do not exactly have a huge fortune. I've been fairly lucky in guestimating individual companies (relative) performances over 12 months, but the volatility of the overall market is usually much more important, and my chrystall ball has not been as good foreseeing those changes.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
May 19, 2004 1:40:25 PM

Quote:

A while ago, AMD was trading just over $3. That is when I bought some

<A HREF="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMD&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c... " target="_new">http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMD&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c... </A>

You`r a lucky basterd :o ) they only hit 3$ for a short period.

I buyed stock when i saw samples of Athlon64 @ 800MHz, they where impresive, then they anounced IBM would help a hand, i know, this cant go wrong, IBM is a GIANT, they have many patents.
I do think AMD`s quote can still go up, this is only the second time they make profit in a long time.
And they make a lot of $ on Opteron`s, i think in a year or 2, quote will be up in the 20, but thats only my opinion.


Toms Hardware Site is a joke !
May 19, 2004 3:18:24 PM

>You`r a lucky basterd :o ) they only hit 3$ for a short
>period.

To be honest, I first bought some around $5, then I bought some more at ~$3.6. Quit or double :)  They couldnt go much lower, either chapter 11 or go up, those where the options.

>I do think AMD`s quote can still go up, this is only the
>second time they make profit in a long time.

Exactly, they posted profits for 2 consequetive (sp?) quarters now, so that is already taken into account of todays stockprice. Its not for no reason that price has increase five fold already in a very short time.

>And they make a lot of $ on Opteron`s, i think in a year or
>2, quote will be up in the 20, but thats only my opinion.

Sure it could, but that is "only" 33%, something that the Nasdaq could easily do in two years as well if stock markets pick up. So I do not think AMD will outperform Nasdaq significantly, hence, I don't buy it. Especially as its still a bigger risk than a nasdaq based product given the volatility and the fact AMD is so small/vulnerable. But hey, its not my money, do with it as you please :) 

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
May 19, 2004 3:41:03 PM

Sidenote : Hector Ruiz is pretty sure about Dell offering Opterons within a year, probebly after AMD comes with 90nano Opteron`s.
Lets say this is true, quote will go up, way above 20$ i think.

I think AMD has nothing to fear about Xeon ore Prescott, but that Pentium M is a very great CPU, by that time it comes out(desktop/server), i hope i sold all my pieces, but ofcourse you never know, maybe AMD has an answer ready for Intel, time will tell...



Toms Hardware Site is a joke !
May 19, 2004 3:47:46 PM

I have been trading on and off in AMD for a couple of years. I have come out pretty far ahead, and have been happy.

If I had hit the peak highs, and peak lows a little better I would have had MUCH greater success.

AMD is still in a precarious position. They have a lot of good stuff going for them now, but can they really maintain it?

That remains to be seen.

Intel will have to stumble pretty big, for more than just a few months, for AMD to be able to grow real big.

In the past Intels stumbles have been rather short in duration, so I am not betting this one will last that long.

Don't get me wrong.

I like AMD. All of my systems at work are AMD. (Save for the laptops.) I support them whenever I can, and I think they are in a great position.

If nothing else, if a day comes when DELL announces support for AMD processors there would be a huge short term gain. (It may even be a sign the Intels current stumble is greater than it appears.)

Putting everything that you have on one pony though is always a greater gamble, and a proper investors faux pas. Nothing is a sure bet in investments.

If you are truly looking for a one pony race to enter to lay it on the line, I think that a better pick would be Google this fall.

They seem to be doing fairly well financially, but what is at times more important they have a lot of name recognitiona and people are looking for them to succede.
May 19, 2004 3:54:14 PM

Ok thanks to all for any opinions, I had already decided not to buy over $14.00 and it's up a bit this morrning (so is Intel). So I may never buy into AMD unless it goes below $14.00 again, and then only maybe.

As to the market thing I agree a general drop in a sector should effect all in that sector. Intel comming down and being such a big player could cause a general drop in that sector. However if intel drops in CPU sales yet CPU sales are up in the industry as a whole (who or what) would be the reason? Intels loss in CPU sales could = AMDs gains. You can make money in a bear market or falling sector if playing the right stock.

I think AMD has a unique oportunity for the next 12 - 18 months. What concerns me is production can AMD meet demand? Can they or will they outsource to compnies like IBM? and just how will 90 NM SOI perform? what will the yields be? Will Intel solve some of the prescott heat leakage problems? or will intel keep having problems pop up? AMD solved the first 13 micron heat problem (thoughbred A) by adding an aditional layer to the chip. So its reasonable Intel might find a solution.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
May 19, 2004 3:59:58 PM

>lets say this is true, quote will go up, way above 20$ i
>think.

I think that (if ever it happens) will have precious little effect on the stockprice. Did it have any effect when IBM, HP or Gateway suddenly shipped boxes with Athlons in them some years ago ? Or when Sun, HP, IBM, Cray announced they would ship Opterons ? Hardly I think. I think even today AMD is selling every K8 they can produce, having Dell onboard might help selling more of those dies as opterons instead of as A64's, but overall it won't change much dramatically IMHO. Try and keep things in perspective, AMD's revenue from K8 or Opteron is rather insignificant compared to its revenue from flash or even embedded products. Margins are obviously in a different league, but the flash market is more important for AMD's profitability as Opteron entirely, let alone Dell shipping opteron or not.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
May 19, 2004 4:23:33 PM

>I think AMD has a unique oportunity for the next 12 - 18
>months

Can't say I disagree, but also keep in mind they had a great opportunity for the last 12 months, and frankly, they did extremely well (selling opteron, getting microsoft onboard, signing up cray, sun, HP, IBM, ..). How much more stock boosting "miracles" can you hope for ?

>What concerns me is production can AMD meet demand? Can
>they or will they outsource to compnies like IBM?

That is a very valid concern I think. A64 is ramping quite slowly, and even until the end of the year it will be a rather low volume product. It will be almost 2 years since Opteron first shipped... AMD will also be transitioning from 130 to 90nm which will definately hurt product supply this year since they only have one fab. 2005 might be the "year of truth" for K8.

>or will intel keep having problems pop up?

He.. How many more disasters can you hope/fear for ? :) 

> AMD solved the first 13 micron heat problem (thoughbred A)
> by adding an aditional layer to the chip.

No, not really. Tbred didnt have any heat problems, it had a speedpath issue which was solved by adding a metal layer and a small relayout of the chip. Prescott's problem is completely different, it doesnt have a problem clocking higher, its just too hot (mostly static leakage apparently). Since Dothan seems to do well on the same process, I think Prescott's problem is the design (and transistor count), not the process, and therefore, its not likely to be really fixed ever.

>So its reasonable Intel might find a solution.

I don't think so. It canceled Tejas, and moved to the P3 core again for the future, so I don't think Prescott will be magically solved, the problem seems to be too fundamental.

Also, considering how precious little 3.2 or 3.4 GHz Prescotts are found in retail or oem PC's, it even seems intel is having trouble making >3 GHz parts without surrealistic power consumption. There is no other reason for Northwood 3.4 to even exist, as Prescott ought to be cheaper to produce.

Sure, there will be a handfull of 3.7 and 4 GHz parts this year or early next year, enough for a few magazine's and review sites, much like the 3.4 prescott in februari (?) and the P4EE last year, but I wouldnt count on much more than that.

Not that any of this is so important to either Intel or AMD's stockprice or even bottomline, they both make a LOT more money selling sub $100 chips (and Intel especially selling truckloads of 88mm² Dothans for a lot more). The high end desktop is mainly for prestige, not for survival. And for AMD getting a decent mobile chip out the door, and selling it in quantity is likely a lot more important then how high 90nm Athlon 64's can be clocked. If there is any "stock boosting miracle" I would hope for, its an exellent mobile 90nm chip getting adopted by some big oem's. That would be much better than Dell announcing a couple of Opteron based products.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
May 19, 2004 4:52:52 PM

One more thing.

I think I will jump in if it dips under $14.00. Once 90NM useing SOI is reviewed (should not be to far away) If I like what I see I will keep it. If I don't like what I see I will dump it.

Also for the longer term I think Intel falling back on the original p3 now the improved 90 NM Dothan has some serious catching up to due. no 64bit yet, plus AMD can use their design to even better preform in a dual core design do to the on die memory contoller.

I think the down side at $14.00 is relativley small compared to the upside potential. BUT knowing my luck there will be a patent infringment or acusation sending amd tumbling or wipe it out completly. Yeah its a gamble for sure.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
May 19, 2004 6:34:07 PM

>Once 90NM useing SOI is reviewed (should not be to far
>away) If I like what I see I will keep it. If I don't like
>what I see I will dump it.

Hmm.. seems like an odd criterium. What matters to AMD and its shareholders is not what you are going to read in the reviews: production costs, speedbins, yields. Also, remember the initial .13 product ? Tbred-A ? If you had based anything on that, you'd have assumed AMD was dead in the water. AMD will also be adding a few more layers to their 90nm SOI process next year, so its not impossible initial 90nm K8's will be Tbred-A a like, and bad overclockers. Just a thought...

>Also for the longer term I think Intel falling back on the
>original p3 now the improved 90 NM Dothan has some serious
>catching up to due. no 64bit yet

It will most likely have it when it ships halfway next year. I think its safe to assume intel has been working on this for quite some time before burning the ship and dropping Tejas.

>plus AMD can use their design to even better preform in a
>dual core design do to the on die memory contoller

I dont see a specific advantage here for dual core. A dual core K8 will still only have 2 controllers (like opteron, FX and S939), not 4 if that is what you where thinking.

>Yeah its a gamble for sure.

Good luck :) 

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
May 19, 2004 6:52:32 PM

Re: remember the initial .13 product ? Tbred-A ? If you had based anything on that, you'd have assumed AMD was dead in the water. AMD will also be adding a few more layers to their 90nm SOI process next year, so its not impossible initial 90nm K8's will be Tbred-A a like, and bad overclockers. Just a thought...

Yes this is true.. But 90 NM is proving very problematic for everyone. What we don't know is if AMD's SOI will solve this problem. If it does amd will have an additional tactical advantage. If amd 90 NM on SOI proves sucessful I would be more comfortable holding the stock for a longer period like a year maybe.


Re: I dont see a specific advantage here for dual core. A dual core K8 will still only have 2 controllers (like opteron, FX and S939), not 4 if that is what you where thinking.


What I was trying to say is the Dothon is not yet set up in its design as much as the amd design to benifit from dual core.. No I don't think quad cores are likley in mobiles or desktops any time soon. I got the below from the register.

The Athlon 64's on-die North Bridge already supports connections from two cores - dubbed 'CPU 0' and 'CPU 1' in AMD's documentation - and has done so from a very early stage of its development, according to company insiders.
AMD founder Jerry Sanders said last September that multi-core Athlon 64s were an "inevitability", a fact reprised by CFO Fred Weber a month later.
Weber also said that the next generation of AMD's 64-bit architecture, codenamed 'K9', will begin sampling during the second half of 2005.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
May 19, 2004 7:21:35 PM

> No I don't think quad cores are likley in mobiles or
>desktops any time soon

Not what I said either, I just thought you claimed A64 would be more suiteable for dual core because of its ODMC somehow, like thinking they would double that as well.

>The Athlon 64's on-die North Bridge already supports
>connections from two cores - dubbed 'CPU 0' and 'CPU 1' in
>AMD's documentation - and has done so from a very early
>stage of its development

Yes, its true K8 and its memory controller was designed with multicore in mind. But then, this solves a problem that I think Dothan (or P4, or Xeon) doesnt even have, since these chips don't have an ondie memory controller in the first place. Therefore, I don't think it would be much if any harder for intel to do a dual core Dothan as for AMD to do a dual core K8. At least not in that respect.

>Weber also said that the next generation of AMD's 64-bit
>architecture, codenamed 'K9', will begin sampling during
>the second half of 2005.

Ah ? thats news to me. That is quite fast IMHO. Especially if the rumours are true that K9 is a rather radical new design, much more than K7->K8.

= The views stated herein are my personal views, and not necessarily the views of my wife. =
May 19, 2004 7:58:46 PM

Open an ING Investment Savings account. Put your money in there and sleep well.

25 bucks a week turns a profit of $1500.00 cash a year not Tons of return but better then most banks.

If you dropped 25 grand into that it would look real good. You can also access the money any time you want to.

I had a large amount of cash lost in Nortel Networks so I know how you feel.

Barton 3200+ 400MHz
A7N8X Deluxe
Air Cooled 45C
2x512 Corsair DDR 400 PC3200
GeForce FX5900
Two Maxtor 40Gig 8MB cach 7200rpm
SONY RW 52x/24x/52x
SONY DVD 16x/40x
May 19, 2004 8:12:20 PM

There is a difference between investing and gambling. If you intend to drop all of your cash in one or two companies for a quick profit.... you are gambling. You *might* hit it big... but you may lose everything too.

Basing your educated guess as only on the current line of products from ATI and AMD means that you are investing your money blindly. There are many factors that could impact your return.

Look at Krispy Kreme doughnuts for example... they still have a helluva good doughnut, but the bloom has definitely come off the rose as of late. The couldn't maintain their current rate of growth and expectations were inflated.

It wasn't long ago that nVidia was sitting pretty with a huge deal from Microsoft. Well...

There are examples like this all over the place.

If you want to invest for the long haul (which is what the experts will tell you to do), I suggest looking at some mutual funds and find one that closely matches your beliefs in which companies will do well. If AMD slips, you won't lose everything (of course, if they skyrocket you won't get the huge gain either!).

Diversify your portfolio!!!
May 19, 2004 8:16:26 PM

Re: 25 bucks a week turns a profit of $1500.00 cash a year not Tons of return but better then most banks.

I think the commercial says $1340.00. So stuff the money in a sock $1300 after a year But ING direct a profit before inflation of $40.00 after inflation $10 bucks or so for profit. Better than a sock though.

Sorry to hear about Nortel I know lots who lost their shirt on that thing.


If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
May 19, 2004 8:21:36 PM

Diversify your portfolio!!!


Wise advice. But it's not like I am gambling my house or retirment income. If I loose then I loose. I am a bit of a gambler by nature and I know just like all the other who invested in AMD it's a gamble to many unknows.

If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
May 20, 2004 12:04:39 AM

Well I would be going in the stock market if SSI disablty would let me but they only let you have so much in the bank and if they see any ativity. I would lose money.

But my understanding of the stock market is not Put all your coins in One company. Or we could have another eron how ever that spelled happen. There all your chips Down the toliet.

If I could get into the stock market once I get off the disabilty I would work on 4 companys. Both Intel and amd and look into 2 more.

One thing Intel doing great on is Laptops. What Amd lack on there laptop is space. Yes we all like differnt things on a laptop. So the same with Amd and there 64bit desktops computers

So Intel doing good on laptops market
Amd doing good on desktops Market.

Each have a pro and a con to the companys.
May 20, 2004 12:23:41 AM

RE: But my understanding of the stock market is not Put all your coins in One company.

Once again to all people thanks. I know that is sound advice. I am a big boy though if I make a mistake I will live with it. I am not mortgaging the home or putting rrsp's into this thing.

Re: One thing Intel doing great on is Laptops. What Amd lack on there laptop is space. Yes we all like differnt things on a laptop. So the same with Amd and there 64bit desktops computers

Not everyone gets fooled by centrino wireless technology. and I believe amd is gaining traction in the notebook section but for how long is anyone’s guess.

“AMD's desktop share has doubled from 25% since the fourth quarter. And in the week ending May 1, the latest period for which data are available, AMD claimed 24% of notebook sales, up from 17% the week before. The last time the competition was this fierce was back in the late 1990s,”


What I am looking for is reasons to invest or not invest in amd. I'm not looking for don't put all your eggs in one basket stuff while good advice I don't own any stocks what so ever right now. and I am not mortgaging the house or risking my retirement fund. Some people buy brand new cars so cut me some slack.


If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
May 21, 2004 4:42:18 AM

Wow, This is a very interesting thread. Learned a lot already. How long did it take you to type it up, gosh.

Barton 2500+@2090 MHz , MSI K7N2 Delta-L, Corsair PC2700 512 MB, Gigabyte Radeon 9600XT 128 MB, Maxtor 120GB 7200rpm 8MB Cache, X Dreamer Turbo Case 350w
May 21, 2004 5:30:16 AM

Re: Wow, This is a very interesting thread. Learned a lot already. How long did it take you to type it up, gosh.

Not sure why you need to know that but 27 minutes and 47 3/4 seconds (give or take)

I have an open bid in at 14.00 for yesterday and tomorrow (friday) if dips under $14.00 you can guess I am a new owner. I am catching a plane in a few hours out to Quebec to see the old lady she is in training out there and I have not seen her in a while. So if I end up buying I won't even know till monday night or tuesday.

Knowing my luck I will own it and it will drop to ten or so. But whatever I will make a decision to stay or sell based on 90 nm in 3 months or so. If 90 is good I'll probably hold if bad I'll dump. I could sell before that based on any number of factors. If nothing radical I will be making a futher decision at that point 90 nm.


If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
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