Ok I am thinking about investing a considerable amount of money in AMD.
I am a little nervous, why. Because a few years back I lost my left nut buying bre-x minerals on margin. Very traumatic I lost everything I had. I am not going to go into bre-x, why I bought it or why it fell. I am just saying Bre-x still haunts me to this day.
When ATI came out with the 9700-pro I looked at the books the market and almost but did not buy ATI…. I did not invest in ATI because of the bre-x disaster. I have seriously regretted not investing in ATI at that time.
So this brings me to my dilemma, I have squirreled away some serious cash after the bre-x defeat. And I am seriously thinking about investing in AMD. The more I look into Advanced Micro Devices the more I like it. However, this is money we are talking about not some personal favorite name brand product. So I am looking for any reasonable positive negative feed back on AMD. Please let’s not turn this into a flame war.
OK we all know Intel is in some trouble (not financially) with their cpu’s design characteristics, seems bad news after bad. Then we know AMD has been more successful with a64 but still the 90 nanometer is unproven or unknown.
From what I have been reading AMD is using SOI (Silicone on insulator) for 90 nanometer, AMD has expected serious problems with die shrinks for years now and always looked or invested in SOI R&D to solve these expected future problems. AFAIK IBM also played a role in SOI.. AMD, IBM have shared technology in this area. It’s starting to look to me that AMD made the right bet with SOI, SOI is supposed to solve leakage heat problems but is extremely tricky to implement. Takes time and practice to get it right. Never mind that they have been working on SOI for years, the original barton was supposed to be SOI but AMD could not pull it off. However AMD states 90 nanometer is sampling well right now with solids yields. Shipping in 3rd quarter.
So I am looking for positive and negative reasons to invest. I know AMD is doing well with flash (very high prices right now) they are ecstatic about their mirrorbit technology. Although I do not know much about their mirrorbit patent. I do know they seem excited about it. Personally I think the real growth lies in cpu’s and lets face it they are doing well today. Analysts I have read say cpu’s growth should be strong this year and next. The way I see it with AMD entering a new market,,, servers with opterons their ASP (average selling price) is much higher per cpu. But the fact remains AMD only has so much capacity. Fab36 300 waffer won’t be producing until late 2005 at the earliest probably later. I am not sure if AMD will, could out source excess to IBM or TI.
I have read that Intel is now left with excess inventory and AMD can hardly keep up with demand. Obviously if this is true it’s good for AMD. I also read that in desktops AMD has now passed Intel in volume world wide. However Intel is still dominant in mobile’s and servers x86. So Intel still sells the vast majority of x86 cpu’s.
I know Intel has huge resources way more fabs, marketing and a talented team on their side. But I think AMD has done a lot in coming from behind. If AMD can capture 35 – 40% of x86 (in the next year or 2) cpu market and offer a superior product I believe they can influence price. All these if’s but and what if’s,,,, guess that’s why I am posting here. I did also hear AMD plans on a heavy advertising campaign with windows 64 but what’s the point if the fabs are maxed out.
I was considering investing in ATI ((NOT)) cause I hate nvidia but because I thought ATI had a unique opportunity. And I am looking at AMD not cause I hate Intel but because I believe AMD is in a unique position right now. I see down side as limited in short to medium term and upside with huge potential in the short to medium term. Long term over 2 years who knows. I have never owned AMD stock but I am seriously looking at it at $14.00 US.
All opinions welcome.
If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.
I am a little nervous, why. Because a few years back I lost my left nut buying bre-x minerals on margin. Very traumatic I lost everything I had. I am not going to go into bre-x, why I bought it or why it fell. I am just saying Bre-x still haunts me to this day.
When ATI came out with the 9700-pro I looked at the books the market and almost but did not buy ATI…. I did not invest in ATI because of the bre-x disaster. I have seriously regretted not investing in ATI at that time.
So this brings me to my dilemma, I have squirreled away some serious cash after the bre-x defeat. And I am seriously thinking about investing in AMD. The more I look into Advanced Micro Devices the more I like it. However, this is money we are talking about not some personal favorite name brand product. So I am looking for any reasonable positive negative feed back on AMD. Please let’s not turn this into a flame war.
OK we all know Intel is in some trouble (not financially) with their cpu’s design characteristics, seems bad news after bad. Then we know AMD has been more successful with a64 but still the 90 nanometer is unproven or unknown.
From what I have been reading AMD is using SOI (Silicone on insulator) for 90 nanometer, AMD has expected serious problems with die shrinks for years now and always looked or invested in SOI R&D to solve these expected future problems. AFAIK IBM also played a role in SOI.. AMD, IBM have shared technology in this area. It’s starting to look to me that AMD made the right bet with SOI, SOI is supposed to solve leakage heat problems but is extremely tricky to implement. Takes time and practice to get it right. Never mind that they have been working on SOI for years, the original barton was supposed to be SOI but AMD could not pull it off. However AMD states 90 nanometer is sampling well right now with solids yields. Shipping in 3rd quarter.
So I am looking for positive and negative reasons to invest. I know AMD is doing well with flash (very high prices right now) they are ecstatic about their mirrorbit technology. Although I do not know much about their mirrorbit patent. I do know they seem excited about it. Personally I think the real growth lies in cpu’s and lets face it they are doing well today. Analysts I have read say cpu’s growth should be strong this year and next. The way I see it with AMD entering a new market,,, servers with opterons their ASP (average selling price) is much higher per cpu. But the fact remains AMD only has so much capacity. Fab36 300 waffer won’t be producing until late 2005 at the earliest probably later. I am not sure if AMD will, could out source excess to IBM or TI.
I have read that Intel is now left with excess inventory and AMD can hardly keep up with demand. Obviously if this is true it’s good for AMD. I also read that in desktops AMD has now passed Intel in volume world wide. However Intel is still dominant in mobile’s and servers x86. So Intel still sells the vast majority of x86 cpu’s.
I know Intel has huge resources way more fabs, marketing and a talented team on their side. But I think AMD has done a lot in coming from behind. If AMD can capture 35 – 40% of x86 (in the next year or 2) cpu market and offer a superior product I believe they can influence price. All these if’s but and what if’s,,,, guess that’s why I am posting here. I did also hear AMD plans on a heavy advertising campaign with windows 64 but what’s the point if the fabs are maxed out.
I was considering investing in ATI ((NOT)) cause I hate nvidia but because I thought ATI had a unique opportunity. And I am looking at AMD not cause I hate Intel but because I believe AMD is in a unique position right now. I see down side as limited in short to medium term and upside with huge potential in the short to medium term. Long term over 2 years who knows. I have never owned AMD stock but I am seriously looking at it at $14.00 US.
All opinions welcome.
If I glanced at a spilt box of tooth picks on the floor, could I tell you how many are in the pile. Not a chance, But then again I don't have to buy my underware at Kmart.