Will the bubble burst?

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

First off, sorry if this double posts. Does anyone see the price
bubble bursting any time soon? I mean, I know its the market right
now, but it just seems that it has changed so radically so fast. I
mean, sooner or later with most things the bubble will have to burst,
but with only Stern making pins, it would seem that prices are
positioned only to go up...

 

[Nomad]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

Man I know it's still early here on the left coast but what the hell
are you talking about?

nomad

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

What bubble?

Just because one or 2 games trade at more than purchase price doesn't mean
anything. There is no bubble until prices start trading regularly double
what a new game goes for. So I wouldn't be worried until T2, Dr. Who,
Dracula, Demo Man, and the like start trading for 7 or 8 grand regularly.
That would be a bubble.

-Jeff

"JKirby" <JKirby74@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1126195703.074666.299310@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
> First off, sorry if this double posts. Does anyone see the price
> bubble bursting any time soon? I mean, I know its the market right
> now, but it just seems that it has changed so radically so fast. I
> mean, sooner or later with most things the bubble will have to burst,
> but with only Stern making pins, it would seem that prices are
> positioned only to go up...
>

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

If all those titles start trading for 7 or 8 grand per title, I'm
selling all my machines. TZ should be worth 20k by then.

Video games were a bubble because mame killed that market. You can get
%99% emulation and it's "good enough". Not so for pinball. The market
will correct itself, and people will start to loose money (a lot of
money) when they can't get 4k for some titles.

ditto with the real estate market - it will eventually cool off.

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

nomad wrote:
> Man I know it's still early here on the left coast but what the hell
> are you talking about?
>
> nomad

He's talking about prices on machines dropping because they are
artificially inflated. You know, just like home prices around here.
Haven't you ever heard the term "the bubble bursting" before? Try
reading the real estate section of your local paper on Sundays and
you'll get the idea. The way it works is, too many people with too much
disposable income drive the market into a frenzy, inflating prices way
beyond the reach of the average bloke. Eventually, these people become
overextended, or the economy goes into recession, and all those people
who spent too much money speculating end up eating it big time. So
spend wisely, and save your money for the recession, because in a
recession, cash is KING. That's when you can buy all the stuff these
people have for pennies on the dollar. Thats my plan, anyway....

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

While there are a lot of pins out there going for higher prices than we were
used to there are still great deals to be had. You just have to do some
digging to find them sometimes.

--


-Frank Gant
http://orbitpinball.com


"JKirby" <JKirby74@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1126195703.074666.299310@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
> First off, sorry if this double posts. Does anyone see the price
> bubble bursting any time soon? I mean, I know its the market right
> now, but it just seems that it has changed so radically so fast. I
> mean, sooner or later with most things the bubble will have to burst,
> but with only Stern making pins, it would seem that prices are
> positioned only to go up...
>

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

Sure hope so.

Game prices are on the short end of stupid.

Fred
TX
CARGPB#8
=================================
JKirby wrote:
> First off, sorry if this double posts. Does anyone see the price
> bubble bursting any time soon? I mean, I know its the market right
> now, but it just seems that it has changed so radically so fast. I
> mean, sooner or later with most things the bubble will have to burst,
> but with only Stern making pins, it would seem that prices are
> positioned only to go up...

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

When our economy gets SO bad that people can't afford to be spending
their money on pins and have to worry more about bills and necessities,
that's when the bubble will burst.

At that time pins will fall back to pre-internet prices, or lower.

If the US sustained another natural disaster or another terror attack
anytime in the near future, I think it would be TOO much for our
economy. Then the bubble will burst.

But, who's really gonna care about pins if it gets THAT bad?

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

There will always be people with an excess of income for various
reasons. When the next recession comes, those people will still buy
pins, but at a substantially reduced price from the regular folks that
have to sell to pay the mortgage.

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

4. deafdumb&blindboy Sep 8, 1:22 pm show options

Newsgroups: rec.games.pinball
From: "deafdumb&blindboy" <ilduc...@earthlink.net> - Find messages by
this author
Date: 8 Sep 2005 10:22:14 -0700
Local: Thurs, Sep 8 2005 1:22 pm
Subject: Re: Will the bubble burst?
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nomad wrote:
> Man I know it's still early here on the left coast but what the hell
> are you talking about?

> nomad



He's talking about prices on machines dropping because they are
artificially inflated. You know, just like home prices around here.
Haven't you ever heard the term "the bubble bursting" before? Try
reading the real estate section of your local paper on Sundays and
you'll get the idea. The way it works is, too many people with too much

disposable income drive the market into a frenzy, inflating prices way
beyond the reach of the average bloke. Eventually, these people become
overextended, or the economy goes into recession, and all those people
who spent too much money speculating end up eating it big time. So
spend wisely, and save your money for the recession, because in a
recession, cash is KING. That's when you can buy all the stuff these
people have for pennies on the dollar. Thats my plan, anyway....
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
horrible plan you got there buddy

Pinlicious ( ...there is no spoon.)

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

12. Bally Tim Sep 8, 2:49 pm show options

Newsgroups: rec.games.pinball
From: "Bally Tim" <rkandrlo...@aol.com> - Find messages by this author

Date: 8 Sep 2005 11:49:27 -0700
Local: Thurs, Sep 8 2005 2:49 pm
Subject: Re: Will the bubble burst?
Reply | Reply to Author | Forward | Print | Individual Message | Show
original | Report Abuse

When our economy gets SO bad that people can't afford to be spending
their money on pins and have to worry more about bills and necessities,

that's when the bubble will burst.


At that time pins will fall back to pre-internet prices, or lower.


If the US sustained another natural disaster or another terror attack
anytime in the near future, I think it would be TOO much for our
economy. Then the bubble will burst.


But, who's really gonna care about pins if it gets THAT bad?
----------------------------------------------------

you are EXACTLY right, i mean, who doesn't remember "THE GREAT PIN
DEPRESSION OF 2001"? ;-)

Pinlicious ( ...there is no spoon.)

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

Bally Tim wrote:
> When our economy gets SO bad that people can't afford to be spending
> their money on pins and have to worry more about bills and necessities,
> that's when the bubble will burst.

Problem is, barring a civilization-ending event, there will always be
people who can afford to be spending their money on pins. Not only
that, but we're talking about more than the US economy... Europeans
might start re-reimporting the games back

 

[Andy]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

It all seems to come back to supply and demand. Demand is increasing
because more and more people decide to get into this hobby every day.
Meanwhile, the condition of everything is going down since the games are
getting older and older. That is driving up prices of even a lot of older
system 11 stuff these days as well.

At the end of the day, I believe this trend will continue. Keep in mind
that, at least to some degree, this hobby is cyclical with the highest
prices in the winter / Christmas season and lower during the summer months,
but as a whole prices will contunue to climb, IMHO. I have seen a crazy
trend at the Winston auctions - prices at, near or higher than eBay (and
they allow or at least tolerate shilling there, ugh.)

Andy

"JKirby" <JKirby74@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1126195703.074666.299310@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
> First off, sorry if this double posts. Does anyone see the price
> bubble bursting any time soon? I mean, I know its the market right
> now, but it just seems that it has changed so radically so fast. I
> mean, sooner or later with most things the bubble will have to burst,
> but with only Stern making pins, it would seem that prices are
> positioned only to go up...
>

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

I don't believe we're in a bubble to begin with. It's not like R.E. with
lots of speculation, I've never heard of anyone buying and selling a pin in
escrow. Prices on pins are purely being driven by supply and demand. Vastly
diminishing supply and more people entering the hobby all the time. We could
see a top out but that would only occur if there were less people in the
hobby or home-ownership than the available supply of desireable pins. Before
then it looks like greater demand and lower supply is going to keep pushing
prices up.

GRY

"metallik" <lscott@dlptech.com> wrote in message
news:1126208345.567392.209230@o13g2000cwo.googlegroups.com...
>
> Bally Tim wrote:
>> When our economy gets SO bad that people can't afford to be spending
>> their money on pins and have to worry more about bills and necessities,
>> that's when the bubble will burst.
>
> Problem is, barring a civilization-ending event, there will always be
> people who can afford to be spending their money on pins. Not only
> that, but we're talking about more than the US economy... Europeans
> might start re-reimporting the games back
>

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

-In my opinion-, YES. Vintage games selling at above current market for
new is idiotic. There is a bubble and it started inflating when WMS
announced they were shutting down the pinball division in deference to
pleasuring demons in hell. When that came down, operators hands got
TIGHT, because "they don't make pinballs anymore". But wait, there's
Stern. While the prices on games inflated (beyond all reasonable
thought processes for some titles), Stern quietly kept making better
and better machines. Filling the void nicely with games many people are
quite fond of playing. Ebay did NOT help things either! If one
multimillionaire wanted to spend insane money on a particular title,
all of a sudden every seller thought the game was worth that much, and
asking prices skyrocketed as uninformed consumers scrambled for a
product that was THOUGHT obsolete.

However, pinball is anything BUT obsolete, is gaining ground slowly but
surely, and Stern is improving with each passing year. In my thinking
there are only a couple of titles that should sell for what a new Stern
sells for, and I'm talking about a completely reconditioned game with
new everything replaced, perfect in every detail.

The problem is rich collectors who don't mind over-paying for anything,
and can rationalize away the expenditure as an "investment". Too bad
for the rest of the world.

Maybe not a bubble-pop, but rather a slow decline back into logical
reasoning?

-cody
CARGPB#4


JKirby wrote:
> First off, sorry if this double posts. Does anyone see the price
> bubble bursting any time soon? I mean, I know its the market right
> now, but it just seems that it has changed so radically so fast. I
> mean, sooner or later with most things the bubble will have to burst,
> but with only Stern making pins, it would seem that prices are
> positioned only to go up...

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

You're playing a silly semantic game. You're really saying the same
thing as Ceegary, but with some negative spin. Hate it if you must,
but it's supply and demand, pure and simple.

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

seymour-shabow@excite.com <seymour-shabow@excite.com> wrote:
: If all those titles start trading for 7 or 8 grand per title, I'm
: selling all my machines. TZ should be worth 20k by then.
:
: Video games were a bubble because mame killed that market. You can get
: %99% emulation and it's "good enough".

Maybe for you....

--
Mark Spaeth mspaeth@mtl.mit.edu
50 Vassar St., #38.265 mspaeth@mit.edu
Cambridge, MA 02139
(617) 452-2354 http://rgvac.978.org/~mspaeth

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

Actually it isn't. For supply and demand to work properly there has to
be a, well, supply. There IS a supply of Stern pinballs, and they are
priced accordingly. There is NOT a "supply" of vintage games. There are
individual sales of an extinct product. Saying it's simply supply and
demand is entirely incorrect. If unmentionable starts actually
supplying Bally and Williams titles, THEN supply and demand will be
accurate.

I move my Silly Semantic Token four spaces. Your turn.

-cody
CARGPB#4


azpinlawyer wrote:
> You're playing a silly semantic game. You're really saying the same
> thing as Ceegary, but with some negative spin. Hate it if you must,
> but it's supply and demand, pure and simple.

 

[jdix]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

As much as I want to see pin prices decline, it can't really be refered
to as a bubble. There is some speculation by flippers, but games turn
over fast so the risk is minimal. Also demographics play a large part.
In housing tons of young people (20's and early 30's) are stretching
for homes they cannot afford. When interest rates go up or jobs are
lost, or any other number of economic factors causes price shifts tons
of young people with no financial stability are going to be forced to
do something to make ends meet. Many will have to dump the properties
for a loss. Enter a giant supply to the market, and subtract the
demand. Hence the bubble bursting.

Pinball in my opinion is a different entirely, especially the
demographic. I just turned 30 and I consider myself a baby in the
hobby. I don't think I have ever met another person or dealt with
another person in the hobby younger than me, although I typically don't
think of myself as young. It seems most pin collectors are older, and
established. In order to have a good collection you typically need
money, time, and a decent sized home, something younger people don't
usually have. So even if economic factors materialize into problems,
or a recession it won't effect pins like houses. Sure it could slow
the market a bit, or maybe decrease prices somewhat, but most pin
collectors don't think of there pins as "bail out" dough for when S$#%
hits the fan.

 

[Troy]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

Simply put, yes.
first vids then pins.
I saw this coming for sometime.


Troy,


"JKirby" <JKirby74@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1126195703.074666.299310@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
> First off, sorry if this double posts. Does anyone see the price
> bubble bursting any time soon? I mean, I know its the market right
> now, but it just seems that it has changed so radically so fast. I
> mean, sooner or later with most things the bubble will have to burst,
> but with only Stern making pins, it would seem that prices are
> positioned only to go up...
>

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

Personally, I don't see prices dropping in the near future. Stern
is making new machines but new doesn't necessarily mean good, though
there are a few titles that I like. If anything, the Stern machines may
be getting new people interested in pinballs again and looking to see
what else is out there.
I've been wondering how long it will remain feasible to keep the
80's and 90's machines running. Can you see parts being available 30
years from now? I'm amazed at how well the electronics in the 20+ year
old machines continue to work. With everything getting smaller I don't
believe the manufacturers will continue to produce DIP packages. Our
company has already discontinued offering many of it's parts in
through-hole packages, so unless someone converts the WPC and System 11
board sets to newer technology I think it's inevitable that those
systems will become too difficult to maintain. Perhaps then the prices
will drop.

Jim


JKirby wrote:
> First off, sorry if this double posts. Does anyone see the price
> bubble bursting any time soon? I mean, I know its the market right
> now, but it just seems that it has changed so radically so fast. I
> mean, sooner or later with most things the bubble will have to burst,
> but with only Stern making pins, it would seem that prices are
> positioned only to go up...

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

Personally, I don't see prices dropping in the near future. Stern
is making new machines but new doesn't necessarily mean good, though
there are a few titles that I like. If anything, the Stern machines may
be getting new people interested in pinballs again and looking to see
what else is out there.
I've been wondering how long it will remain feasible to keep the
80's and 90's machines running. Can you see parts being available 30
years from now? I'm amazed at how well the electronics in the 20+ year
old machines continue to work. With everything getting smaller I don't
believe the manufacturers will continue to produce DIP packages. Our
company has already discontinued offering many of it's parts in
through-hole packages, so unless someone converts the WPC and System 11
board sets to newer technology I think it's inevitable that those
systems will become too difficult to maintain. Perhaps then the prices
will drop.

Jim


JKirby wrote:
> First off, sorry if this double posts. Does anyone see the price
> bubble bursting any time soon? I mean, I know its the market right
> now, but it just seems that it has changed so radically so fast. I
> mean, sooner or later with most things the bubble will have to burst,
> but with only Stern making pins, it would seem that prices are
> positioned only to go up...

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

JKirby wrote:
>Does anyone see the price
> bubble bursting any time soon?

Oh yeah, without a doubt. Anyone that tells you otherwise is
delusional.

Take a look at Ms. PacMan prices 3-5 years ago.

Then take a look at them today. Maybe 40%.

Pinball is no different. As the people that are interested in them
start dying off, the prices will bottom out to the "cool, neat weird
thing to have in the house as a conversation piece" which seems to be
around $500 today.

Frankly, with about 100 exceptions, the majority of pinball prices are
already hovering around that $500 mark.

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

> priced accordingly. There is NOT a "supply" of vintage games. There are

Sure there is.. it's all the remaining examples of that particular
vintage title. Say I play someone's AFM and I get the urge to buy
one... There are certain number of them out there, and some of those
are for sale. There is your supply. Problem is, the supply never
increases, only decreases, as games get parted or bought by folks who
will never unload them. Hence the rising prices.

The prices will come down when fewer people want to buy AFM for the
'going rate' than there are people who want (or need) to sell it. The
sellers then must lower the price to attract a sale. This will happen
when 'the going rate' can buy alternative game(s) that are more
desireable than AFM, or the supply of AFMs is somehow increased (but
really, they would be considered 'repros' and thus not quite comparable
to the anal collectors around here Honestly, I would take my used
but nice AFM over every new Stern made to date, although it's REAL
close with TSPP and LOTR.


> individual sales of an extinct product. Saying it's simply supply and
> demand is entirely incorrect. If unmentionable starts actually
> supplying Bally and Williams titles, THEN supply and demand will be
> accurate.

It is accurate now. There is a supply, and a demand. There just isn't
a *renewable* supply.. and that tends to lead to inflated prices.

> I move my Silly Semantic Token four spaces. Your turn.

*spins knob* .. "3" ...arrgh, cyberdog! RUN!

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: rec.games.pinball (More info?)

"The problem is rich collectors who don't mind over-paying for
anything,
and can rationalize away the expenditure as an "investment". Too bad
for the rest of the world.

Maybe not a bubble-pop, but rather a slow decline back into logical
reasoning?

-cody
CARGPB#4"

I couldn't agree more. And it isn't a matter of semantics, it's a
matter of people with too many dollars and too little sense driving
prices up because they can afford to. Which dovetails nicely with what
I said about RE speculation.
And eBay isn't helping matters because it exposes more of those people
to pinball, thereby driving the prices even higher.

"oh, and one last thing, you gonna have cash ready when all these
people
are dumping pins and taking 1k+ hits on their collection investments or

will you be short because you spent too much on magazine subscriptions?


PINBALL MACHINES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GET MORE SCARCE AND I DON'T SEE
THE SIZE OF THE COLLECTOR POOL OUT THERE SHRINKING, ONLY GROWING.

Pinlicious ( ...there is no spoon.) "

Also, there's no need to be so Pin-vicious here - I agree with you on
the second part of this quote. But I am enjoying the few machines I
can afford, and I bust my ass every day as well to afford them, a home,
and my few other toys. I don't have to spend money on financial
magazine subscriptions, the company pays for them, so that we can see
and track trends in the financial world, which is just plain good
business no matter what business you're in, which in my case is
manufacturing. The only subscriptions I pay for and carry right now are
Car & Driver and Motocross Action, two of my other interests,
totalling about $20/year. So I will be able to afford whatever the
hell games I want when the prices get reasonable if they ever do. I
just wait patiently for the deals-they'll come along.