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Why AMD might loose the battle on long term?

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November 20, 2000 6:33:23 PM

I have an article on my web page regarding this subject. Please check

"www.geocities.com/mihaiu_razvan/20nov2000/index.htm"

and tell me if it's worth reading it.





Thanks, Razvan

Razvan
Anonymous
a b à CPUs
November 20, 2000 7:21:10 PM

Razvan,
You may be right on AMD's future, I think the article is good and worth reading. However,right now,the P4 is good on paper. You will not know if the Itnium or P4 will be a killer until it is actually out and people have time to really see what happens. I agree that on paper, Intel has a big advantage especially amongst less knowledgable computer users.But you never know what bug and or recalls could plague either chip manufacturer. Also, AMD is where they are now for a reason; I can't believe that Athalon was just a fluke. I think that AMD might be high right now, meaning that they will hit some harder times in the future. But now people know who AMD is, people know they have a good reputation. If they can keep up and continue to make good processors, I think they will be able to stay in the game. Anyway, good article!
-Loki
November 21, 2000 11:18:26 AM

What is it with u people and RAMBUS. You all think it's a god or something. Studies show RAMBUS sux. It's overpriced and hard to find. AMD has a very good future ahead of it. Looks brighter than INTEL. You think AMD is going to sit and do nothing while INTEL releases new chips? I think not.

"upgrading is no longer an option...it's a necessity"
Visit www.elitehunters.com
--SoulReaper =)
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Anonymous
a b à CPUs
November 21, 2000 12:38:41 PM

I think that the major problem AMD has is that it is not nearly as name-recognizable as Intel. That is to say, when John and Jane Doe do to the local retail store to buy a computer, the only 2 words they probably know is Microsoft and Intel (or pentium).

Also, before I knew a tenth of what I now know about computers in general, I worked at SEARS selling them. I have to admit that I also blindly believed that Intel was superior, just because it was Intel! (who want's to by a clone, and who the hell is AMD anyway??)

Basically, when you don't know too much about a subject, you tend to go with the flow. I think it's safe to say that a mojority of people who buy their first computer aren't techno-savvy enough to differentiate between Intel and AMD. But if they've heard the word 'Pentium', and the salesman wants to sell them one, it's gonna happen.

This is why Intel can charge double prices on their processors and get away with it. (people also like to believe you get what you pay for! :)  So Intel gets crazy profit margins, their stock goes up, the media hype continues, and the process goes on.

My 2 cents.
Anonymous
a b à CPUs
November 21, 2000 4:53:39 PM

While I agree with yer 2 cents here, look at who is selling Athlons, and doing fairly well: Gateway, Micron. Compaq is a name that everybody knows fairly well, they use Intel, as does Dell, HP, etc. It seems to me that had I not been techno savvy and all that, I would have heard of the athlon and AMD also (just because of those brand names).

My 2 pennies.
Anonymous
a b à CPUs
November 21, 2000 6:08:47 PM

First, the consumers of the world are getting smarter... thanks to Tom and other internet Websites. When informed people are making the right choice, AMD and DDR are their only options. Now you do make a good point on the Name Brands.... Polo, Tommy, where leading apparell manufacturers. Then low and behold, Old Navy.

Automobiles are the same, first it was Ford and Chevy as the car of choice, now it's a Toyota Camry. Once people become aware of a superior product, they will buy it. have faith in our markets.
Anonymous
a b à CPUs
November 21, 2000 6:32:49 PM

http://www.aceshardware.com/Spades/list_news.php?catego...

A big thanks to Christian for sending this press release my way.


HILLSBORO, Ore., Nov. 7, 2000 - Intel Corporation today announced that it had completed the development of its 0.13 micron (130 nanometer) generation logic technology, allowing it to manufacture chips with transistors that are approximately 1/1000th the width of a human hair. An important milestone in Intel's continuing quest to make computer chips smaller and more powerful, this advanced process technology will begin volume manufacturing next year and deliver a new generation of high performance microprocessors, which may contain more than 100 million transistors and run at multi-GHz clock speeds.

The company has built functional static RAMs and microprocessors using this technology, which features 70 nm transistor gate width, 1.5 nm gate oxide thickness, copper interconnects, and low-k dielectrics. (A nanometer is one billionth of a meter.) Intel is the first to complete development of the 130 nm generation process technology and to demonstrate its manufacturing readiness with complex integrated circuits. Intel will present details of this process technology at the International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM) in December 2000.""""">>>>

AMD will not be going anywhere and they are in it for the long haul. It would be bad for either company to"win", as some fans say. AMD has more bang for the buck and that can not be over looked.

I still have a Classic 700/KX-133 and will get a Tbird with a 133 FSB and DDR when Ali and SiS chipsets are tested against eachother. Buying early sucks more for AMD than for Intel. Look at the difference between the i815E and KX-133 when they launched. Hardware site surfers rarely buy RAM-ASS systems so recalls don't affect them like some folks.


Donnie
Anonymous
a b à CPUs
November 21, 2000 7:05:47 PM

You bring up some important points. But despite all of the image and marketing muscle of Intel, AMD has gained market share with a clearly superior product. AMD also gained this market share even before they took the MHz crown from Intel.

Intel has also made some enemies over the whole RAMBUS fiasco that will be hard to overcome. Micron providing their exciting new 'Mamba' chipset for Athlon's is just one example of the partnerships that AMD is creating.

Finally, from reading websites like tomsharware and anandtech you get a feeling that those in the know support Athlon and DDR. Sure, the average consumer doesn't know this, but everyone that asks me about what to buy, I tell them to buy an Athlon or Duron. It won't take long before this word of mouth makes AMD known to most people interested in purchasing a new system.

Regards
Anonymous
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November 21, 2000 7:12:31 PM

As it stands now, Intel is always going to pioneer the CPU realm, as in the .13 micron process. AMD has gotten where they are by taking an Intel product (X86 processor) and improving on it. Almost by nature, this relegates them to a secondary position until they have enough resources, etc. to start pioneering their own designs. This is exactly what we are starting to see with the Sledgehammer / Clawhammer, etc. This could be good, but it could also be bad considering how much will ride on it's success. Also, considering Intel has a rediculous amount of money in the treasure chest and is probably strating to get sick and tired of being embarrassed at the hands of AMD... should be interesting...

Lets just hope that AMD continues to make good decisions in the future! :) 
November 21, 2000 7:17:45 PM

SoulReaper,

"What is it with u people and RAMBUS. You all think it's a god or something."

Try to read my article first. It has NOTHING to do with Rambus. In fact I don't like Rambus just like you: it's written on the first line.

"Studies show RAMBUS sux."

Again, this is not about Rambus. This is about how most people behave.

"It's overpriced and hard to find."

True.

"AMD has a very good future ahead of it. Looks brighter than INTEL."

I would not bet on that now. Question: will be able AMD to clone Itanium?

"You think AMD is going to sit and do nothing while INTEL releases new chips?"

You don't understand. Itanium is not just a new chip. Whenever is a killer or not if Intel manages to convince anybody to go on Itanium platforms AMD will be left in the dust. The reverse is true also: if AMD manages to push HAMMER to 80x86 market Intel will loose everything: IMHO this will affect the Itanium's success. Now, that's a DISASTER!
I'm not speaking about tomorrow: this could happen in 2-3 years. Like I said: on long term. Right now AMD is in a very good position, but a position that is very fragile. If they will not move fast enough they will loose everything.
Any questions?



Razvan
November 21, 2000 9:53:29 PM

SoulReaper,

Errata:
I ment everybody not anybody.




Razvan
November 21, 2000 9:55:18 PM

exlr8,


"First, the consumers of the world are getting smarter... thanks to Tom and other internet Websites."

You are overwhelmingly optimistic. You know what is the first reaction the people have when they see a site like www.tomshardware.com for the first time?
Quote:

"-This site has some sort of interest with AMD! I don't believe this!"


And it's normal. An intelligent person is not going to change his mind in 10min. AMD has a long way to go. Their image will be good enough only if they manage to stay on top at least for another year.

"When informed people are making the right choice, AMD and DDR are their only options."

I'm not talking about informed people like the Linux community for example. I'm sure the Linux users where among the first to see the potential of Athlon.

"Once people become aware of a superior product, they will buy it. have faith in our markets."

You don't see the most important point! Intel wants to LEAVE the 80x86 architecture behind but AMD doesn't right now. Maybe in the future. If Intel wins there is going to be Itanium (McKinley,... aso) all over the place and AMD and others will have a very hard time. Look what's happened with Compaq: when they hear about the Itanium project they almost cancelled the Alpha project. For this reason (and others) Alpha has stalled at 600Mhz for a very long time.
The next 2 years are crucial. If Intel will win people will have few options.
Please correct me if I'm wrong.




Razvan
November 21, 2000 9:57:06 PM

ThelonX,



"But despite all of the image and marketing muscle of Intel, AMD has gained market share with a clearly superior product."

True.

"AMD also gained this market share even before they took the MHz crown from Intel."

True again.

"Intel has also made some enemies over the whole RAMBUS fiasco that will be hard to overcome."

Nothing new. When Intel will have no enemies we will all buy Intel.

"Micron providing their exciting new 'Mamba' chipset for Athlon's is just one example of the partnerships that AMD is creating."

You are right. The only thing that I don't like is the timing. Athlon is "out on the open" for more than a year, right? Why there was no such chipset for SDRAM memory? It could certainly add new performance. I guess the answer is: "this AMD" was a "little AMD" last year.
According to my latest information the Mamba chipset was cancelled due to patent issues with Intel. There is going to be another similar chipset but with a lower performance if I understood well.

"Finally, from reading websites like tomsharware and anandtech you get a feeling that those in the know support Athlon and DDR."

Yes, you are right. I'm already tired! Why you are right all the time?!:) )

"Sure, the average consumer doesn't know this, but everyone that asks me about what to buy, I tell them to buy an Athlon or Duron."

That's the problem! AMD cannot win without the average computer user on their side and this is not going to be easy.


I want to say thanks to all the people who bothered to read my article! Thanks!




Razvan
Anonymous
a b à CPUs
November 22, 2000 7:53:31 PM

who gives a toss at the end of the day.
while there busy fighting it out we're getting faster and better processors.
may the battle rage for a long time to come.
we should all hope and pray that the pc's dont go the same way as the amiga and the atari completly imcompatable that would be no good for anyone.
!