I might be missing something here, but who the hell cares about 64 bit for the desktop ? The way I see it, 64 bit has only some practical purpose for some very specific scientific apps/ number crunshing/ *huge* data warehouses, etc.
Comparing the transition from 16 to 32 bit with the transition from 32 to 64 is a skewed one. When we went from 8086 to the 386 (im deliberately omitting the 286) we did not only gain 32 bit registers and busses, but also, and much more importantly, we got protected mode processing, and we got multi tasking support. That was way more important than the 32 bits. Now, the 286 also sort of supported this with 16 bits, but required a hard boot to switch from protected mode to real mode, thereby eliminating the possibility to run both old and new apps. Thats why protected mode on the 286 was rarely or never used (corrections are welcome if I'm mistaken, it has been some time)..
Anyway, my point is.. 64 bit is really not much of an issue for the desktop for a very long time to come. It doesnt offer us anything more than an enormous memory addressing range, and a new awkward IA64 VLIW instuction set that is absolutely not guaranteed to perform better than x86.
Or does anyone here really expect to have Terrabytes of memory in 5 years ? Gigabytes.. yes, maybe. Terrabytes harddisk also perhaps.. but we really dont need 64 bit for our games, flask, word whatever.
Thats why I expect both the Itanium and the hammer to find their markets. Itanium on dedicated servers only, running a 64 bit OS and 64 apps only, especially applications that seem to benefit from the VLIW architecture. Hammer on the other hand, will be found primarely on the desktop, in workstations and in general purpose servers, competing there with 32 bit P4/5/6's.. running 32 and 64 bit versions of Windows / Unix / beOS and hopefully even Mac OS X one day.
I know Raystonn.. microsoft hasnt said it yet, but im pretty sure they *will* support the x86-64. Why would they give this market segment to Unix only ?
To get back to this Itanium vs Hammer thing.. they will hardly compete. Hammer will be found in market niches were Itanium doesnt have a chance (workstations, workgroup servers, ..) because of its cost and lack of 32 bit support. Itanium wil be found in high end, specific servers were it will compete against Suns, IBM's and the like. Maybe Hammer will also compete somewhat in that area, but I dont think it was AMDs primary market..
---- Owner of the only Dell computer with a AMD chip