Amulet of life saving on level 3

Archived from groups: rec.games.roguelike.nethack (More info?)

rmcneive@andrew.cmu.edu wrote:

> I just rubbed a blessed magic lamp and failed to get a wish, for the
> third time in a row. The chances of three in a row are 1/125.

Nitpick: that's the chance of failing to get a wish from a *particular set*
of three lamps.

--
Benjamin Lewis

Seeing is deceiving. It's eating that's believing.
-- James Thurber

Archived from groups: rec.games.roguelike.nethack (More info?)

Benjamin Lewis wrote:
> rmcneive@andrew.cmu.edu wrote:
>
> > I just rubbed a blessed magic lamp and failed to get a wish, for the
> > third time in a row. The chances of three in a row are 1/125.
>
> Nitpick: that's the chance of failing to get a wish from a *particular set*
> of three lamps.
>
> --
> Benjamin Lewis
>

Yeah, I know, but there's not really any other statistic I could give
that would be more meaningful. I could estimate the number of magic
lamps I run across per day based on how much time I spend playing and
my skill level (which determines which dungeon levels I spend the most
time in; do I die at dlvl 4 all the time or make it to Gehennom?), then
get a probability per day...but I don't think I will do that. Other
probabilities depend on different sets of original assumptions (i.e., I
just found my FIRST dud, there's a 1/25 chance the next two will also
fail me), but aren't any more inherently useful. Statistics fail me
here, except as a way for me to vent my grief and anger at this harsh,
cruel, made-up world.

Archived from groups: rec.games.roguelike.nethack (More info?)

In article <1118728780.884615.290590@g44g2000cwa.googlegroups.com>, rmcneive@andrew.cmu.edu writes:
> Yeah, I know, but there's not really any other statistic I could give
> that would be more meaningful. I could estimate the number of magic
> lamps I run across per day based on how much time I spend playing and
> my skill level (which determines which dungeon levels I spend the most
> time in; do I die at dlvl 4 all the time or make it to Gehennom?), then
> get a probability per day...but I don't think I will do that. Other
> probabilities depend on different sets of original assumptions (i.e., I
> just found my FIRST dud, there's a 1/25 chance the next two will also
> fail me), but aren't any more inherently useful. Statistics fail me
> here, except as a way for me to vent my grief and anger at this harsh,
> cruel, made-up world.

A relevant statistic is that if you consider an unpleasant circumstance
with 1/125 odds of occurring noteworthy then the chances of encountering
a noteworthy unpleasantness are 100%.

John Briggs