<i>(sic) I wonder if AMD will one day be able to surpass Intel. </i>
One first has to consider Intel & AMD's strength an weaknesses and then consider the changing market they are both in.
Intel Strength
- Massive market share
- Big research budget
- They employ Raystonn
- P4 is early in its lifecycle
- P3 was a very solid processor
Intel Weaknesses
- The 64 bit strategy is not guaranteed success
- Current P4 losing market share to Athlon (slowly)
- Juin likes them
- Slower to react due to size
- Not much success in diversifing portfolio (networking etc)
AMD Strength
- Great Athlon product
- Low end Duron outperforms & outprices Celeron on the low-end
- Slowly gaining market share
- Good short term 64bit strategy
- Doing well in Europe/Asia
- Lean and well focussed
AMD weakness
- Marketing power
- Athlon nearer to end of life cycle
- Lacks strategic alliances
- Questionable longterm 64bit Strategy
The Market
- Saturation reached in US and Western Europe markets (The PC boom after 20 years has finally slowed down).
- PC's will face stiff competition from the next generation of consoles (only XBOX uses Intel processors)
- Software is increasingly lagging Hardware capability
- Low power specialised systems are becoming prevalent
So what does this all mean, my guesses are...
-Intel will struggle with the move to 64bit - success or failure will be in their own hands
- AMD will have limited success in the 64bit arena gaining a good niche market but is unlikely to generate enough traction unless Intel seriously botches it.
- Mobile P4 will struggle but Intel will ensure that it holds market share through tough marketing and pricing
- Mobile Duron will be surprising winner in the emerging budget laptop market
- Athlon will hold market share against P4 but have no gains
- P4 will provide cash cow for Intel
- If AMD can strike some good deals in the appliance market the Thoroughbred & Appaloosa cores will generate high demand.
This all means that both Intel & AMD need to be successful in the growing markets of 64bit-servers, cheaper laptops & appliance products.
Ironically AMD probably needs Intel to succeed in the 64bit server space against IBM & SUN. If they fail, they will be gunning for AMD to maintain/increase market share.
<font color=blue> Smoke me a Chip'er ... I'll be back in the Morgan </font color=blue>