This is the perfect setup for the mainstream enthusiast!
Which is still a small market.
If nV has to wait a year or two for people to buy their second card, by that time you still won't be at the top of the food chain, you'll be around the upper middle.
I'm not saying this isn't a good solution for MANY of us HERE, however we are still nowhere near the 'average' computer user (especially if you go by VALVE's numbers!
).
What I am saying is that overall this will still be a small part of the market until it's a proven commodity, especially for people who have trouble using Overdrive, let alone overclocking their systems. Rememebr that the majority of people wouldn't know where to start looking in their BIOS to tweak their systems. They are one step away from console users. NO COMPANY would risk any of their overall strategies for this small market. SLI itself isn't so much the threat as much as he PROMISE of SLI is. And really ATI's biggest issue will be to minimize that impact, but not at the cost of redesigning the R5xx series to accomodate SLI or something similar. That's my point, whatever they do it will be in addition to their current plans. MAYBE you could see it in the fall/winter of '05, but every indication is that the R5xx won't have it, so they would be foolish to halt that production instead of trying to make ALX or something similar work. Even a MAXX or bridge style solution would mean they could use current chips on either two boards or the same board, where there is more fexibility. The thing that may be making ATI sweat right now might be the fact that Aleinware is so enthusiastic to support technology that competes against their ALX solutions. Which an outside observer might see as their having major problems with their progress with ALX.
I dont' disagree that SLI offers people like ourselves a whole new concept of upgrades (heck why mention the 6800GT when you could also consider an even larger market in the GF6600GT range who can stay 'mid-level' or even minimum requirement for years to come with a second similar card, whose total cost wouldn't be much different than the next gen mid-ranges IMO.
OF course this is really what things like this are about, Consumer Adoption. I think SLI would've had a FAR greater impact if it had arrived over the summer, because having exposed the technology so soon, and taking so long to bring actual product and demos/benchmarks to the public has stalled what could've been gigantic momentum for this type of product. The shortage of cards has not helped either, because whatever benifit was to be found from a GT with an eye on a second one in the future has been somewhat stimied by the lack of cards, and especially cheap ones. PCIe versions are few and far between, and cost more than MSRP by a healthy margin right now. This may change with the NV41 taking on some of that demand, but really it has given the comeptition some time to sell it's cards, and while the promise of SLI is great, the thing that will sell it is when [H], THG, Xbit, Firing-Squad, The Proffesor and Marie-Anne get a chance to profile it and benchmark it, and truely declare to the world, 'Holy $hiznit, This is AWESOME!'
Until that day there will be ALOT of buzz, but limited movement in cards because of it alone, IMO.
If ALX and other potential variants fail, then nVidia will have a very strong advantage with SLI if it performs as expected; but like I said, that advanatage will appeal to a minority of the current buying public (be they 5% or 25%). Not to say it's insignificant, but it's not worth jeopardizing all else to win, and that's what I think would be required from ATI to have a similar solution by early 2005. ATI's best hope is to rely on others with their help, wether it's Alienware, or the boardmakers like Sapphire/HIS, or some other 'magical' software solution. And really I have little faith in Magic, so it looks like the short term options are limited. And probably more important than the solution itself will be the promise that their IS an ATI solution. Becuase as you point out, alot of this is about the future of the technlogy, and not just about get the top spot in the Bungholio Hall of Fame this instant, although that's always a bit of fun too.
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