Sign in with
Sign up | Sign in
Your question

No new NV5x until end of year?!?

Last response: in Graphics & Displays
Share
a b U Graphics card
January 10, 2005 10:19:20 PM

Goldman Sachs, as reported by Xbit, says that nV will not release a new graphics processor until the end of 2005. If ATI keep son track this may give them a head start to the next generation.

<A HREF="http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/display/200501100343..." target="_new">http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/display/200501100343...;/A>


- You need a licence to buy a gun, but they'll sell anyone a stamp <i>(or internet account)</i> ! - <font color=green>RED </font color=green> <font color=red> GREEN</font color=red> GA to SK :evil: 

More about : nv5x end year

a b U Graphics card
January 10, 2005 10:24:32 PM

While this is interesting I don't think there's as much 'need' for nV to get a new marchitecture out there as there is for ATI to get something SM3.0 out there. nV likely feels safe in the idea that raw numbers wise anything that ATI brings out will be closely enough matched by some SLI variant that they can make, and thus on paper they can offer a similar product. I wouldn't prefer that solution, but for this ego-maniacal BS small fraction of the market, they can justify Bungholiomarks and have something to PR about. ATI on the other hand NEEDS a new chip, even if it were barely a performance boost over the X850XT, the features set boost will be needed for any card with 2006 as game target point. Also since the truely gruelling games/engines (like UE3) won't hit the market 'til 2006, so there's no rush this year. Timing something closer to the next gen games, as happened with D3 makes more sense anyways, pulling sales along for targeting. No major DX news to mention until Longhorn DX10/DX_Next/WGF(WTF!) comes out towards the end of the year at the earliest (more likely 2006 too). So what's the rush? Sure I'd love to get my hands on an R5xx/NV5x right now, but what is the driving 'killer app' to make it a make or break thing for either company? If anything ATI just has an advanatage of having a production schedule matching M$ for the NeXtBox. Anywhoo, we'll see. If anything I'd be willing to gamble that this in fact pushes the ATI release date BACK to the early fall because there is nothing to rush against.

Perhaps this is the straw that broke the hectic pace of competition that we were talking about in the other thread.

Anywhoo, just my two frames' worth.


- You need a licence to buy a gun, but they'll sell anyone a stamp <i>(or internet account)</i> ! - <font color=green>RED </font color=green> <font color=red> GREEN</font color=red> GA to SK :evil: 
January 10, 2005 10:43:11 PM

Dang, I don't like this news. We've reached a wall in CPU's for a while and now it looks like GPU's are doing the same. It's nice when Intel/AMD or ATI/Nvidia are having to out do each other often.
Related resources
a b U Graphics card
January 10, 2005 10:54:16 PM

I don't know if there's a wall per say. 90nm will offer alot of tasty boosts, but it's a question of motivation. Why does nV NEED something to reply with?

If the NV47 does exist (stories to the contrary) then it should do fine, especially with SLI. The only thing that is the unknown right now is the effect or potential of ATI's AMR response to SLI. Two R520s in tandem may be a powerfull thing, but how much more powerful than something like two 24pipelined GF6800Ultras (the equivalent of 2 NV47s)?

Really is there a need for a new architecture for nV? Just a few refreshes are in order, add some pipes, reduce the fab process, all without taking a risky leap into a new marchitecture. Now the story is somewhat contradictory in mentioning the NV47, but if it's just a refresh I guess it's not 'totally' new, but I wouldn't call it nothing new.


- You need a licence to buy a gun, but they'll sell anyone a stamp <i>(or internet account)</i> ! - <font color=green>RED </font color=green> <font color=red> GREEN</font color=red> GA to SK :evil: 
January 10, 2005 11:19:57 PM

I totally understand what you're saying and I agree. I just wish ATI would bring out their new card and Nvidia would come out with their refresh card. I know it's not really needed but it's good for us consumers as it would push down prices of 6800GT's, x800xt's etc....hehe
January 11, 2005 12:19:42 AM

With the X850 refresh not even available yet, I doubt we will see the R520 until late summer/early fall either. The refresh was about making product availability, so they want to sell these things. No point cannobilizing your own products. ATI does need an SM 3.0 part out, but I am not sure they are in a huge rush. Since R520 has taped out, I would guess we actually see it in July/Auguest with a paper launch in May/June. If Xbit is right, we are looking at a fall paper release from nVidia and product availability in the 2005 holiday season with mainstream parts probably coming in early 2006. Just guesses, but that is how things look to be shaping up.
January 11, 2005 1:24:49 AM

ATI head start on paper launch. Where the heck are X800XTs plus X800Pros. Nice they killed Pros. To many PCIEs. Not enough AGPs. More people have AGP Mobos then PCIe.
January 11, 2005 2:19:56 AM

how much do you want to bet. By the time nVidia or ATi announces R520/NV50, people are still waiting in line to get that one 6800Ultra/X800Pro XT PE uber whatever edition.

What is the point of releasing new technology, if you can't even offer it to the public? sure I'll just get myself a new alienware or Voodoo PC everytime a new videocard is announced.

They have gotten to a point where they are just cramming technology, clock speed, transistors into the GPU. They take maybe 50 successful gpus out of hundreds or wafers and announce their video card kicks ultimate ass. Now then the competitor (let's say ATi) gasps and go OH SHIIT! they're kicking ass ultimately. They go and shove some more stuff up the R520 and release some uber PE gold silver with crazy ram with crazy fan with crazy box edition. They pick 200 gpus and then pick the best 25 out of them and announce nVidia can suck ATi diick because we just owned them. nVidia goes, oh crap! back to the drawing board, jam more transistors, shove some more technology, and announce they're kick ATi ass again.

The point is? the goddamn semiconductor industry can't take this! out of maybe 1 wafer from TSMC, you can get 50% yield at the beginning (random figures) nVidia takes them and announce the product(add-in board don't come in as a factor). Now the public wants it, okay at first TSMC has to make maybe 200 up to performance and working 6800Ultra for press, testing, etc. Now nVidia goes "oh now i want 200,000"
GPUs with complexities like 6800Ultra aren't easy to make. Same goes to ATi.

nVidia and ATi don't give a [-peep-] if they can provide the chips with now, they're just wanting to kick eachother's ass.
With this wide shortage of X800 and 6800Ultra, I can tell you the situation is not going to get better, no matter how TSMC, IBM can improve the yield rates, as GPUs becomes more complex, they need time to figure things out.




RIP Block Heater....HELLO P4~~~~~
120% nVidia Fanboy+119% Money Fanboy
GeForce 6800 Ultra--> The Way we thought FX 5800Ultra is meant to be played
THGC's resident Asian and nVboy :D 
a b U Graphics card
January 11, 2005 2:36:23 AM

GPU's have a lot more manuvering room that CPU's. nVidia and ATI can both easily step up the performance significantly, the problem is to do so while keeping the cost and heat down.

We can see that with today's cards representing a huge leap in performance compared to the last huge leap, the 9700 Pro. Developement time simply reflects the difficulty of making those huge leaps fit the price and heat envelope.

This is completely different from the CPU industry. Intel has reached a wall on the P4, and while AMD has some room left, it's not like they can go around doubling things as easily as ATI or nVidia.

<font color=blue>Only a place as big as the internet could be home to a hero as big as Crashman!</font color=blue>
<font color=red>Only a place as big as the internet could be home to an ego as large as Crashman's!</font color=red>
January 11, 2005 4:29:59 AM

It's paper launch, man. Vaporware. SM3.0 support really is not important right now unless you're a graphics programmer/developer. By the time it matters for everyone else, developers will be producing on WGF. nVidia and ATi are basically dead-even, with the exception of OpenGL performance. But really I don't think the choice is at all clear for the average gamer. I can understand, though, why long-time graphics card enthusiasts are becoming cynical to the whole rat-race.

<A HREF="http://atomfilms.shockwave.com/landing/landingIndex.jsp..." target="_new">DumbLand</A>
a b U Graphics card
January 11, 2005 5:15:18 AM

<font color=red>** Warning **</font color=red>, kinda long, could be boring, definitely rambling, kinda guessing, and if you are going to read this, go take a wiz first, and maybe grab a coke or something in case you get thirsty. :lol: 

Quote:
What is the point of releasing new technology, if you can't even offer it to the public? sure I'll just get myself a new alienware or Voodoo PC everytime a new videocard is announced.

Well actually the public can get the latest and greatest usually, and sadly, from DELL. I got my flyer last week from them with the X850XT as an upgrade on the XPS system for only $50CDN more than the GF6800-256mb (not GT, not Ultra like I initially thought). Now Dell probaly not only moves more chips than any other single vendor for ATI, but they probably also sell more 'high end cards' or their XL/GTO variants than Voodoo and Alienware comdined.

Now while I agree that these things are coming fast and furious, right now demand far outstrips supply, and while that sucks for us, it's far better for nV and ATI than the opposite.

Quote:
They go and shove some more stuff up the R520 and release some uber PE gold silver with crazy ram with crazy fan with crazy box edition.

Actually that's the opposite of what I see, I see the R520 as being a likely UNDERCLOCKED card because it will have natural headroom thanks to smaller process and low-Kd, nothing nV has will match that (they don't even us 0.13 low-K now). So this allows you to release a core, that like the R9600PRO has a wide range of performance characteristics (from those like mine to those like yours :tongue: [sorry just had to :evil:  ). Now the refresh on that is simple, move the natural stock clocks up to where the OC'ers are putting them already anyways, and the maturity of the process should yield you more chips that reach the higher levels. This of course makes the 'reviews' see a jump which is as insignificant as the R9800Pro to R9800PRO-256 and X800XTPE to X850XTPE; add the uninformed who think they have a refresh worth spending more money on (outside the at all cost moders). Now that would be the wise way to introduce the next generation core IMHO. This built in 'room to spare' creation should also allow for far more chips to meet the standard speeds, as would even their cast off I'd think. Any pro version and non-pro or SE version wouldn't have to do much to best our current options in those areas.

One other thing to remember that the ATI SM3.0 refresh HAS to happen, now while it doesn't have to happen soon, it does have to happen sooner rather than later; because the 'futureproof' timelines are really starting to make a play with the next great engines being toutted as less than 12months away from the expected launch date.

Quote:
nVidia and ATi don't give a [-peep-] if they can provide the chips with now, they're just wanting to kick eachother's ass.

I don't think that's true, call me the cynical economist. I see this from a different perspective (allow me great lattitude to unfold my personal conspiracy theory or commensal collusion). Both ATI and nV have their weaknesses, and to me alot of this is a holding pattern where neither benifits, but their losses are less than what it could be. Neither seems to be able to figure out what the heck is happening with PCIe, nV likely happy they aren't forced to get their HSI problematic NV40 to market right now, and ATI unsure of how much they need to produce for this generation either (especially if it is shown to be lacking in anyway for future games). Neither wants to get caught with a glut of cards that they can't offload except for at a loss, so keep the market stoked (although annoyed) and only produce the bare minimum you need to make until you can figure out which way the wind blows and what you need to produce. Now this is a tough issue because your long term plans are conflicting with these short term PCIe/AGP issues as well as other irriations like HSI bridges Rialto bridges, etc. nV has the luxury of cancelling or delaying chips, ATI on the other hand is running into 'inevitability' Mr. Anderson. :wink: . They desgined and devloped the X850 and X800XL series card, the X800/XL address your production and cost issues and give you much needed market pressence that appeals to a good target market. It also addresses the short comings and production issues associated with the X700XT. Now while all this is going on you have the R520 program, still going forward like it has been for over a year. However they are long finished and simply waiting for a green light to produce. However what about all these old chips, have we moved enough yet? Well no not as many as we'd like, but putting off the R520 in order to try and recoup any more for the R420/423, only means delaying the returns for the R520. Now the dicision to go forward likely involves alot of factors, even included something so small as the idea that it was announced and to miss that date would be negative. Sure the biggest factors are other things, like expected yields, benifits and efficiencies as well as possible advantages over the competition. Now in addition to that ATI has alot of chips that don't meet certain aspects of the competitor's roadmap. No SM3.0, and no current chip with AMR/SLI capabilities (even in the very latest), so in order to introduce those, you have to bring in a new chip. Why bother with a low end when you're already toying with a chip design for M$, and you can benifit from watching it's production and from letting M$ fab and thereby test your basic designs and new ground. Working on a similar chip makes more sense than working on an RV5xx instead and playing it safe in such a way as to devlop a stepping stone or something completely different. Sure the R500 and R520 are different, but they also have enough in common to learn from.

Quote:
With this wide shortage of X800 and 6800Ultra, I can tell you the situation is not going to get better, no matter how TSMC, IBM can improve the yield rates, as GPUs becomes more complex, they need time to figure things out.

While that may be true I think that the yields of the first few R520s don't need to be as high as they would be if they transitioned the new design in something that did need high volume like the mid-end. While moving to a new process is likely best done on the mid and low ends, moving to something that may need alot of respins to get right might be better done with a core that you can profit more of individually with a low initially start. Also really what would it say if ATI only came out with a low end SM3.0 card, which really likely would be as pointless as an FX5200's or GF6200's 'full feature-set'. It might make alot of sense for test purposes, but would likely also lead to the question of why the heck you can't do it with the cards I'm paying 2-4 times as much for!

I think that's more at issue than actual yields, because directly related to yields in the selection of 'stock' speeds, and by lowering target speeds significant yields <i>should</i> be achieveable, and IMO if there is no mV reply ATI doesn't have to play the silly 'let's see what their clock speeds are then we'll chose ours game that they played with the launch of the X800 and X700 series cards.

Of course nV's response will be interesting to see because there is no way they are simply going to sit back and do nothing, but likely their path will closely follow the NV40 in the way that the R420 closely followed the R300's design, rather than coming out with a completely new GPU.

Anywhoo, that's my view of it. Of course it could be 100% wrong, well maybe 99.44% wrong, but still I think there's more than just yield issues involved here, which I doubt would cause all these shortages alone for such a long period of time. But once again, just my two frames' worth.


- You need a licence to buy a gun, but they'll sell anyone a stamp <i>(or internet account)</i> ! - <font color=green>RED </font color=green> <font color=red> GREEN</font color=red> GA to SK :evil: 
January 11, 2005 3:50:33 PM

It's an unusual period for the industry right now, and I think the major issues are

<b>1</b> Trying to make decisions in a murky transition into a new bus system (hasn't happened in almost a decade).

<b>2</b> Trying to make design projections based on a new M$ OS and API on the horizon.

<b>3</b> Trying to efficiently manage the company as the vendors aggressively expand into various other markets such as bus chipsets and cell phone chips.

<b>4</b> There's never been a bigger disparity, in terms of price, technology, and fab process, between their low-end and flagship GPUs.

<b>5</b> Trying to one-up each other with new features like SLI and dual-GPU, and trying to get that technology finished and onto the market as well.

<A HREF="http://atomfilms.shockwave.com/landing/landingIndex.jsp..." target="_new">DumbLand</A>
January 11, 2005 5:45:09 PM

LOL way to long. You writing a book?
a b U Graphics card
January 11, 2005 7:36:55 PM

I'll have you know they're called Epic Novels! :tongue:


- You need a licence to buy a gun, but they'll sell anyone a stamp <i>(or internet account)</i> ! - <font color=green>RED </font color=green> <font color=red> GREEN</font color=red> GA to SK :evil: 
a b U Graphics card
January 11, 2005 9:18:26 PM

I think the other part of the equation is also the drivers and game developers.

All this new technologies however some of it doesn't work well with all games, others work one way with one card and another way with another card.

Needless to say a time of great upheaval.


- You need a licence to buy a gun, but they'll sell anyone a stamp <i>(or internet account)</i> ! - <font color=green>RED </font color=green> <font color=red> GREEN</font color=red> GA to SK :evil: 
January 11, 2005 11:23:44 PM

Quote:
So this allows you to release a core, that like the R9600PRO has a wide range of performance characteristics (from those like mine to those like yours [sorry just had to ).


I'LL KILL YOU!!!!

In ATi and nV headquarters right now there are banner hanging from ceiling saying "let's kick some nV/ATi ass" that's the only thing motivating them to move forward, ofcourse this is a good thing but when they are releasing new products when the previous ones aren't even available are just wrong -_-


RIP Block Heater....HELLO P4~~~~~
120% nVidia Fanboy+119% Money Fanboy
GeForce 6800 Ultra--> The Way we thought FX 5800Ultra is meant to be played
THGC's resident Asian and nVboy :D 
a b U Graphics card
January 11, 2005 11:31:16 PM

Sorry I couldn't resist. :evil: 

And I agree. Seriously, they need to work on yields and getting card to actual customers more than filling every single last gap of price/performance.

I'd prefer just the X800 line from top to bottom (XTPE to SE) instead of the X700 series if they could at least produce enough of them!

Here's to hoping the X800XL and it's kin and the NV45 (GF6800GT/U PCIe) solve some of our availability issues before Valentines day, and then we can love them like they need to be loved; HOT, FAST and... well that's good enough for now. :wink:


- You need a licence to buy a gun, but they'll sell anyone a stamp <i>(or internet account)</i> ! - <font color=green>RED </font color=green> <font color=red> GREEN</font color=red> GA to SK :evil: 
January 12, 2005 3:51:38 AM

soon enough fanboy will be have wars such as

OUR PRESS RELEASE OWNED YOURS!

THERE IS 2 MORE R520/NV50 CARDS AVAILABLE WORLDWIDE THAN (the competitor)

and of course

XGI owns all because we can ship our high end cards! :D 

RIP Block Heater....HELLO P4~~~~~
120% nVidia Fanboy+119% Money Fanboy
GeForce 6800 Ultra--> The Way we thought FX 5800Ultra is meant to be played
THGC's resident Asian and nVboy :D 
a b U Graphics card
January 12, 2005 4:54:38 AM

Quote:
XGI owns all because we can ship our high end cards! :D 

LOL! Too bad they can't SELL them. :wink:


- You need a licence to buy a gun, but they'll sell anyone a stamp <i>(or internet account)</i> ! - <font color=green>RED </font color=green> <font color=red> GREEN</font color=red> GA to SK :evil: 
January 12, 2005 1:33:28 PM

LOL you said it. :smile:
January 12, 2005 1:35:06 PM

You making any $ on those Epic Novels of yours? :smile:
January 12, 2005 1:37:17 PM

ROFL Hot and Fast. You are talking about Vid cards?????? :smile:
January 12, 2005 7:43:00 PM

I have a solution for XGI: create a version of SLI that requires 8 cards instead of nVidia's 2. Why not challenge NV by taking it to a new level?!? Simply buy 8 of XGI's best graphics cards, add two 650W power supplies, and <b>BANG</b>! Then they will <i>own</i>!

<A HREF="http://atomfilms.shockwave.com/landing/landingIndex.jsp..." target="_new">DumbLand</A>
a b U Graphics card
January 12, 2005 8:32:24 PM

Yeah actually we talked about that once. Alienware's ALX supposedly doesn't limit the system to just two cards, if they had 4 16x slots running at 4x each you could have 8 VPUs running at once, but with those XGI drivers it'd probably still get smoked by an X700PRo of GF6600GT. :lol: 


- You need a licence to buy a gun, but they'll sell anyone a stamp <i>(or internet account)</i> ! - <font color=green>RED </font color=green> <font color=red> GREEN</font color=red> GA to SK :evil: 
January 15, 2005 3:54:40 AM

what are you talking about? reactor owns! ;) 


RIP Block Heater....HELLO P4~~~~~
120% nVidia Fanboy+119% Money Fanboy
GeForce 6800 Ultra--> The Way we thought FX 5800Ultra is meant to be played
THGC's resident Asian and nVboy :D 
!