R520 pwnz G70, right?

[The_MaguS]

Anyone think the R520 will be out before the first week of August? Will it pwn the G70?

Should I hold off buying the G70 and wait for the R520? But if I make a PC, it needs to be done before the end of the first week of august.


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[scottchen]

The R520, X900XT PE will destroy the 7800GTX, but you won't see them in quantities in retail channel 'til Christmas at earliest. By then Nvidia will be nearing completion of the G80. And i'm hopeful Nvidia will come out with a 90nm 7800ultra with 32 pixel pipelines.

 

[KCjoker]

Doesn't seem like ATI will have very many if any out by then. If you've got the money go for the 7800GTX they're easy to find right now.

 

[cleeve]

Yeah, the R520 should kick ass. But that's a couple months away at the very least, and that's a long time in this biz.

Doubt Nvidia would add pipelines to an existing part, that'd be wasted R&D... unless they're on there already and disabled for now, but what a waste of die space that would be. I can't imagine it being the case.

If Nvidia's on their game, they'll have a true next-gen part ready for a couple months after R520 comes out.

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[scottchen]

This is somewhat bad for ATI, this is Nvidia's payback for 9700, remember at that period, when Nvidia has no counter to ATI's performance throne, Nvidia will be able to claim the true performance throne for at least a good 5-6 months due to the fact ATI's facing yielding problems on their new X9xx series cards. In this "biz" you win some and you lose some, and Nvidia's NV40 is a success.

 

[scottchen]

But in truth this is bad for consumers like us, due to the fact Nvidia's 7800GTX will be priced outrageously until ATI finally enters the competition again.

 

[KCjoker]

Well the 7800GTX should push prices down on the 6800U and GT though so that's good.

 

[RX8]

UK prices has seen USA $ convertion a $200 price drop (£100) this week alone. but the 7800gtx just sounds alot better but has a £399 price tag £100 more than a ultra and x850XTPE.

i whish the r520 yields had been a lot betta then there would be some amazing competition forcing there hands to speed up the production of there technology ATI is letting us down ATM.

i am happy with my x800xt and 6800 vanilla unlocked sh!tty thing just does not die, i am going to leave out buying this next gen stuff and just going to wait till the x1000 ATI or 8000 series nvidia to be released coupled with the next gen motherboard, longhorny OS and duel core pro.

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[scottchen]

I see the price going down on the 6800GT, but not yet on the 6800ultra.

 

[Vapor]

I don't see how anyone can make a statement on the R520 at this point. It won't be here before September though, that's guaranteed.

Performance wise, it should be in the same league as the 7800GTX, probably a little faster (like the performance difference between the X800XTpe and the 6800U). It will most definitely not be a 32-pipe part, that's the R580. They certainly could release a 32-pipe version of the R520 (as it is capable), but they'd have how many after two months of production? 100? The R520 has already had 1 MAJOR revision and 3-4 more minor ones since then...there are most definitely problems with the chips and yields.

ATi won't make a vaporware product this round, not after nV pulled a fast one and essentially flooded the high-end market with the 7800GTX.

In short summary: it won't be here in time for you, but when it gets here, it won't be much faster than the 7800GTX.

Maxtor disgraces the six letters that make Matrox.

 

[KCjoker]

The 520 better be atleast 15-20% faster than the 7800GTX considering it'll be months later and how many GTX will be in stock. Not only that but Nvidia would likely be able to one up it pretty easy. For consumer's sake ATI better get their butts in gear.

 

[pauldh]

Let's say, just for fun, ATI discovered that the 24-pipe R520 can not beat the 7800GTX? Then the 7800GTX release confirmed their suspicions. What should they do? My guess is, Then we would probably see a 24-pipe Pro for $499 and a 32-pipe XT or XTpe for $599-$649, both released at the same time. Could this be the delay (stocking up to have the 32-pipers available for launch time)?

I hope 24 pipe R520 > 7800GTX, but I've just been trying to think this out a bit, and "what if it's not faster" came to mind.



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[scottchen]

Just my opinion, the low-k 90nm die on the x900pro is a more attractable core than the 110nm now low-k on the 7800GTX in terms of clocking. In the leaked specs, they say it's only clocked at 450/550, though i have no doubt that the X900Pro will have no problem hitting 500-550mhz, because some people with watercooling already took the 7800GTX to 500mhz+.

 

[TheGreatGrapeApe]

I disagree with the assertion that it won't be a 32pipe part, as it wouldn't offer enough of a boost to wait this long IMO.

As Cleeve mentioned it is unlikely either side would simply run a disabled part when they could be selling better at that point. The die cost is the same, and only if yields were truely horrible would you need to have a 24pipe part in order to maintain inventory. Even in that case making it a XTPE++ or whatever and then pricing it high would make it a PR part, which will be more common in this staggered launch shecdule IMO. Then refresh with the usual R580 refresh.

Like I mentioned to scottchen, launching a 24pip part with only a few percentage better performance over the GF7800GTX would be a waste, if that part isn't here now, then ATi has alot of sales groun to make up and that won't happpen with a slightly better card, they need a signioficantly better card to sell at an attractive price to get any sort of volume of sales. If it's only a bit better than the GF7800GTX then all nV has to do is hint that they have a 32pipe part in order to stiffle ATi sales, even if ATi says they will also be releasing something soon after the nV part even the ATi fans will wait for that part instead. Either way, launching a 24pipe part will simply continue their dissapointing sales of the X800PRO/XT and X700Pro cards where they were late to market with anything competitive or even competitiviely priced.

I agree we won't know until we know, but the re-spins have been to increase yields of the top end part, so I would expect them to show up, and if they are planning a release of the 32pipe part for August, then they will have had sufficient time to get performing chips, and they should have a plethora of 24pipe capable chips from the first few runs and from the ongoing production.

Their best strategy IMO, would be to have a FAR better performing part come at launch at whatever the price, but ALSO have a slightly better or equal performing 24pipe part for as much or cheaper than the GF7800GTX. Those two things together would be necessary to have any hope at strong sales IMO. And if they are wise, they will follow nV's lead and make the high end parts primarily available to e-tail, and then follow with retail later. This makes it not a paper launch but nowhere near as stressful as trying to get parts to distibutors like BestBuy etc.

Either way I wouldn't rely on seeing a part by the end of August, but if people are looking for the very best at that time I suspect the picture about the R520 and it's competition will be far clearer than we currently have. IT might be worth waiting but there's no way we could tell that now without havng the engineering sample Macci et al may have been playing with.


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[Vapor]

ATi has hinted that they're having leakage problems. Even with low-k. In fact, that's speculated to be part of their yields problem, they can't get the 32-pipes ones to run at non-suicidal power levels (and temp levels).

After both nV's and ATi's previous gen fu<b></b>ck ups on release and yields (took forever to find a damn 6800U or GT in PCIe), I'm taking the stance that it doesn't work until proven otherwise (probably should have awhile ago, too).

Maxtor disgraces the six letters that make Matrox.

 

[Vapor]

If it's a 32-pipe part, it's vaporware. Plain and simple.

No doubt they want it to work as one and no doubt it can with the right cooling, but they can't bring a product like that to the market.

Frankly, I have a feeling that G70 is actually a 32-pipe part and they're having problems too. Ever wonder why RSX STILL hasn't had it's specs officially released?

As for the 32-pipe part being stocked up right now...no way. They have an overstock of their old stuff in their warehouses, they want to sell those for as much as they can before they choke those sales.

No doubt they're getting the 32-pipe version to work, but they'll have way too many 24-pipe versions to not sell those immediately as the highend for awhile. How well did the X800Pro sell (especially if the XT and XTpe were fully available)?

I don't see how everyone is so damn hopeful for a 32-pipe card from ATi, there's so many things that have gone wrong on the road there that they almost HAVE to have a 24-pipe card as their #1 for awhile.

Maxtor disgraces the six letters that make Matrox.

 

[TheGreatGrapeApe]

I disagree witht eh GTX being 32pipe part, the die size is too small without some new design efficiencies. Rememeber the RSX is a 90nm part, and is not a GF7800GTX or even an GF7800GTX on 90nm, it's a variant which will have more/less features.

I don't see the GF7800GTX being 32pipe part as it stands, and it just wouldn't make sense to build it on the 110nm fab if you're planning to move to 90nm by launch time anyways. And if they're having trouble with 110nm, what are they going to have with 90nm? For those reasons I doubt any talk about 32pipe 110nm part and anything in the 'Ultra' other than clock pushes (which Asus and others are already doing, and which wouldn't match a 32pipe chip).

I'm not saying ATi wouldn' launch vaporware for the 32pipe variant, I'm just saying for their marketing purposes anything less would be dissapointment. Whatever they launch has to impress enough to make people think it can compete well against nV's part which will be scant few months away. They don't need to just match nV they need to beat them in order to then shift the balance of sales back, because right now they will be in the low minority of new high-end cards, and if they only equalize or barely beat they aren't about to make up anywhere near the ground lost in 3months. That's how the see-saw launches are supposed to work if you want to remain competitivie, otherwise ATi should have launched all the 24pipe parts they could have at the same time as nV, their decision to not do so (long before people realized that nV was shipping e-tail from day one) meant that they alwys needed to have a period where they dominated sales. If they just barely outperform the GF7800GTX by a few percent then you won't get that, and there will be a huge gap in projected and actual revenue IMO. At the very least they have to have 550+mhz core and faster memory, anything else on 24pipe wuld be a waste, and even with those spec nV coud probably launch something the next day to match performance.

This may happen, but it would be stupid IMO.

They have an overstock of their old stuff in their warehouses, they want to sell those for as much as they can before they choke those sales.

That's not what their conference call mentioned it mentioned a lack of stock. And trying to sell old stock instead of new doesn't help the situation, it would be like trying to sell XGI Duos simply because there is a glut of them in a warehouse somewhere. ATi needs to treat this as a new product line not the extension of the old one. If they have 30,000 X800PROs sitting in a warehous somewhere, well then sell them for the same as a GF6800 or even GF6600GT, get them out of there, because they are dead weight and they do not contribute to the future. MAking more R520 chips, either 32pipe, 24pipe, 16pipe or 12pipe all goes to perfecting the chip and lower the cost per unit. Worrying about inventory does nothing except for keep the accountants happy. It's the marketers and economists who need to be running the show. Accountants kill companies!

No doubt they're getting the 32-pipe version to work, but they'll have way too many 24-pipe versions to not sell those immediately as the highend for awhile.

See above.

How well did the X800Pro sell (especially if the XT and XTpe were fully available)?

That's poor pricing strategy, they were trying to sell a 12pipe card for the same price as a faster 16pipe card from nV. How many of those PROs do you think they would've sold if they sold at $100less (aka X800XL prices)? They would've outsold the GT for $100 less, but whomeever priced the cards seemed to ignore the actual market and went of some stoopid grid (Well the XT/PE is this, our next one down should be this, regardless of what the competition offers).

I don't see how everyone is so damn hopeful for a 32-pipe card from ATi,

whoa, Whoa WHOA, with the hopeful stuff. I'm not hopeful, I'm simply telling you what NEEDS to happen in order to be competitive, not hope, my hope is a 48 pipe unified WGF2.0 card from Matrox, but that's not about to happen, either cause I'm realistic about it.
I'll turn your question around on you, why are you so damn adamant that it's not a 32pipe card as it's flagship?

there's so many things that have gone wrong on the road there that they almost HAVE to have a 24-pipe card as their #1 for awhile.

Those issues don't improve with more time of NOT making chips. The best way to fix that is to move the 10% yield you can get now for a $150 premium, and then have the massive 'value' 24pipe chip/cards as well as the premium of the 32 pipe version finance your re-spin etc. With releasing a 24pipe card only, all those potentially more valuable 32pipe chips simply get shelved or crippled. That's lost revenue right there. And if they do re-spin again, then that new batch is far more attractive to the refresh so once against you lose the value of the old 32pipe chips.

ATi can launch a 24pipe card in August, but it will need to be closer 600mhz and OC from there as well in order to have any chance to make up for lost time. And how do you think increasing the speed of the chips is going to affect their bining as well? Either way they need a far better part, and a 450mhz 32pipe part can have similar performance characteristics as a 600mhz 24pipe card. Either way you're in a bind for 'volume' shipments, so it makes far more sense to sell a 32pipe expensive boutique part for the PR BS aspect and then sell your 24pipe part for your volume. However that 24pipe part need 3 things to be successful for ATi, first performance, it has to be better than the GF7800GTX (without questions or exceptions), it has to be similarly priced (which will be hard for a new part versus a part that's been selling for at least 2-3 months), and it has to be cheaper to produce than the GF7800GTX, (which once again is hard to do compared to a more mature part).

Those are the realities ATi faces, and like you allude to, making another X800Pro or even X700Pro that can't compete just makes their hole bigger and loses any moemntum they need to get to get their credibility to a level of being able to compete. Remember right now nV has a part, they and their fans/supporters are trumpeting them from the roof tops, system builders will soon be doing the trumpeting too, by the time ATi decides to launch their part, it can't just be a staid, measured and humdrum, 'look we can do it too' announcement as that will not in anyway help their situation. nVidia has the luxury of sitting back, ATi has nothing right now. And while today's meager sales don't matter, those in a months time will matter once they have more stock in retail and the prices start to fall (which they don't have to if there's nothing to compete with).

Once again I don't hope this is what they will do, this is simply what they need to do, whether they are smart enough to see that is questionable.


EDIT:
I tell you if ATi does as you suggest and if I were with an investment firm/house on conference call when next spring ATi brings out their annual report and says "we had lower than expect sales and revenue from the launch of our new product" my answer to that would be a quite vocal "Well, Fvckin' Duh!"



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<P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1><EM>Edited by TheGreatGrapeApe on 06/30/05 07:56 AM.</EM></FONT></P>