I don't know the answer but I think it depends on the software.
Many games have been optimized to use the video card's local memory to avoid the slowness of the AGP bus. Games are much slower when forced to use system memory across the AGP bus, even at 4X. They would be slower still if forced to use PCI. If a game can load most of the textures into local video memory and the polygon count is not too high I suppose decent speed is possible.
More than the class of GPU, (Geforce 2 MX, 2, or 3), what would be most helpful is a large amount of video memory like 64MB.
Would you like a Quarter Pounder?
No, thank you. Just give me the BIG heatsink. It's an Athlon.