The most optimistic estimate I've read about the supposedly names Intel HD 5000 (GT3) is that it will be double the Intel HD 4000's performance. That would more or less make it a little / slightly faster than AMD's Radeon HD 7660G in the A10-5800k APU.
That translates into performance between the nVidia GT 625 and GT 630; but much closer to the GT 625 than the GT 630.
The GT 650m is roughly 4x faster than the Intel HD 4000. Therefore, the performance would need to be increased at least by 300%. You will need to wait for an Intel CPU beyond Skymont (2016) to get that level of performance. Who knows, maybe it will happen as early as 2017.