Thanks for the great inputs, actually. Your thoughts echo mine for the most part.
Having said that, I'm about to go ahead and order the Ti200 (grin)... here's my rationale, so that you can point and laugh:
First: I'm just sorta primed to get a card anyway, since I've been delaying this purchase for about 2-3 months and the idea of waiting two more didn't thrill me.
So I went and looked at the benchmarks on Tom's Hardware's review and started comparing performance-vs-price. The Gainward card is reported in several reviews to reach Ti500 performance or higher reliably. So if we use Ti500 performance at $150 vs Ti4200 performance at 200, we get the following results at 1280x1024 resolution (I'm not likely to use 1600x1200):
Giants--
Ti/450 : 0.38 fps/$
Ti4200 : 0.285 fps/$
Max Payne:
Ti/450 : 0.40 fps/$
Ti4200 : 0.3275 fps/$
Aquanox:
Ti/450 : 0.249 fps/$
Ti4200 : 0.2065 fps/$
Now: I realize this is a fundamentally flawed comparison, because the Ti4200 is probably at least somewhat overclockable out of the box--but since shipping parts are several months away, I can only compare the "stock" 4200 specs (and price) vs the "tested" gainward GF3 Ti/450 specs
(and price). But unless I just want the extra speed, speed, speed, the "cost-per-fps" of the Ti4200 is only about 80% of the gainward card.
Besides, it gives me a totally fictitious justification for buying a new toy now, now, now! (heh).
(On a less facetious note, I'd just as soon enjoy the higher speeds for now and do another low-level upgrade with the NV30, since it SHOULD be a good deal more "revolutionary"--besides, I have two systems at home, so this upgrade replaces my wife's TNT with the GF2MX, and the NV30 upgrade will give her the Ti/450 in about a year, which will work OK...).
(oh, and why NVidia over ATI? I just like their Linux support better, pretty much).
-->Stitch