1/34 Chance for a Key? Players 1 vs players 8 and 0% MF

Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

Someone mentioned to me that the odds of a KEY drop was 1/34.

I am assuming that MF and Numbner of players plays a role in this

If this were true then assuming at players 1 with 0% MF
(caveat: provided I copied the numbers correctly from my spreadsheet)

After 10 runs you would have a 25.2% chance to get one key.
After 10 runs you would have a 1/4% chance to get three keys.

After 20 runs you would have a 45% chance to get one key.
After 20 runs you would have a 2% chance to get three keys.

After 30 runs you would have a 59% chance to get one key.
After 30 runs you would have a 6% chance to get three keys.

If this were true then assuming at players 8 with 0% MF

After 10 runs you would have a 93% chance to get one key.
After 10 runs you would have a 43% chance to get three keys.

After 20 runs you would have a 99.5% chance to get one key.
After 20 runs you would have a 88.2% chance to get three keys.

After 30 runs you would have a 99.9% chance to get one key.
After 30 runs you would have a 98.3% chance to get three keys.

You want to get 9 keys and open 3 all three portals

At Players 1 with 0% MF

After 170 runs you would have a 6.5% chance to get 9 keys.

At players 8 with 0% MF

After 40 runs you would have a 62% chance to get 9 keys.

If somebody explains how the MF works for this particular drop I can
post calculations for that.

If keys are dropping like hotcakes and you have some MF then it is
likely that it helps. This means that players 8 and good MF could get
the keys very quick.

If keys are dropping like babies out of a man's body and you have zero
MF and/or are soloing then get some MF and other party members or don't
waste you time soloing for the keys with no MF.

Orion Ryder

Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

Sliver wrote:
> "Orion Ryder" <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> news:1123008835.837243.66680@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
> > Someone mentioned to me that the odds of a KEY drop was 1/34.
> <snip>
>
> According to everything I have read around battle.net the basin etc. MF has
> nothing to do with the key drops. This makes sense as the keys are white. As
> per for the odds? Well I have done 7 runs and found 3 keys (one of each).
> First drop was with 2 players game 3. 2nd drop was 4 players 6th game. Last
> drop was 7th game solo. So the keys are dropping like hotcakes and the
> trading for them is ridiculous. Everyone I know has had at least one key
> drop for them within 5 runs. I think the odds are a lot lower than has been
> stated or we have just been damn lucky 8D

Do these keys drop in single player as well, or is this just a realm
game?

Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

"Sliver" ...
> "Orion Ryder" <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> news:1123008835.837243.66680@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
>> Someone mentioned to me that the odds of a KEY drop was 1/34.
> <snip>
>
> According to everything I have read around battle.net the basin etc. MF
> has nothing to do with the key drops. This makes sense as the keys are
> white. As per for the odds? Well I have done 7 runs and found 3 keys (one
> of each). First drop was with 2 players game 3. 2nd drop was 4 players 6th
> game. Last drop was 7th game solo. So the keys are dropping like hotcakes
> and the trading for them is ridiculous. Everyone I know has had at least
> one key drop for them within 5 runs. I think the odds are a lot lower than
> has been stated or we have just been damn lucky 8D


Well, this just pisses me right the f%$# off!

I have done AT LEAST 40 (FORTY!) Countess runs looking for that key. Nada.
Zilch. Squat.

Grrrrrrrr........

Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

In article <Ma3Ie.63555$Dw5.1265254@weber.videotron.net>,
Nobody <anonymous@bogus.invalid> wrote:
>Brian Kastel wrote:
>
>> Well, this just pisses me right the f%$# off!
>>
>> I have done AT LEAST 40 (FORTY!) Countess runs looking for that key. Nada.
>> Zilch. Squat.
>>
>> Grrrrrrrr........
>
>Hopefully you got some good runes?
>
>I've done a few runs (<10) of all the key bosses, doing them all in the
>same game. The only one that has ever dropped a key for me is the
>summoner. I have two hate keys. This also seems to be the fastest run to
>do with a tele-sorc, at least with the FO/CL build I have - Nihlathak
>can be a bitch with the endless supply of popping corpses...

After Mickey and other commented on the 'niceties' of doing Countess runs
a few months ago, I've been rather busy running her. She drops quite
nicely, especially if your 'hobby' is crafting Caster Amulets (Rals
aplenty now!).

Anyway, I run here with an FO/CL sorc, which is very nice for that. Merc
now wields an ethereal Insighted Partizan and this combo is quite nice.

So Countess is also easy. The Summoner I never ran, but will do due to
your comment. Nihlatak I've always avoided, mostly due to his CE attack. I
know how devastating CE is because I also MF a lot with a Meatgrinder (a
summoner with maxed CE), but it seems that same build is probably best to
take down Nihlatak, repeatedly.

But perhaps I should just stick to running the Countess, and trade her
keys for the other one, if/when I find one. I did about 15 runs since
1.11, but she hasn't dropped a key yet. I'll continue trying though!

Regards,

Patrick.

Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

"Brian Kastel" <be-ar-eye-ay-en-kay-ay-ess-tee-ee-ell@tampabay.rr.com> wrote
in message news:Vu_He.59921$mC.20609@tornado.tampabay.rr.com...
>
> "Sliver" ...
>> "Orion Ryder" <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote in message
>> news:1123008835.837243.66680@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
>>> Someone mentioned to me that the odds of a KEY drop was 1/34.
>> <snip>
>>
>> According to everything I have read around battle.net the basin etc. MF
>> has nothing to do with the key drops. This makes sense as the keys are
>> white. As per for the odds? Well I have done 7 runs and found 3 keys (one
>> of each). First drop was with 2 players game 3. 2nd drop was 4 players
>> 6th game. Last drop was 7th game solo. So the keys are dropping like
>> hotcakes and the trading for them is ridiculous. Everyone I know has had
>> at least one key drop for them within 5 runs. I think the odds are a lot
>> lower than has been stated or we have just been damn lucky 8D
>
>
> Well, this just pisses me right the f%$# off!
>
> I have done AT LEAST 40 (FORTY!) Countess runs looking for that key.
> Nada. Zilch. Squat.
>
> Grrrrrrrr........

Sorry Brian. Some people seem to think it's easier with more players.
Perhaps if you get a couple of friends and run all 3 each game you will get
better results. GL!

--
In a World full of Insanity
Here I Stand.
Sliver