1/34 Chance for a Key? Players 1 vs players 8 and 0% MF

Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

Someone mentioned to me that the odds of a KEY drop was 1/34.

I am assuming that MF and Numbner of players plays a role in this

If this were true then assuming at players 1 with 0% MF
(caveat: provided I copied the numbers correctly from my spreadsheet)

After 10 runs you would have a 25.2% chance to get one key.
After 10 runs you would have a 1/4% chance to get three keys.

After 20 runs you would have a 45% chance to get one key.
After 20 runs you would have a 2% chance to get three keys.

After 30 runs you would have a 59% chance to get one key.
After 30 runs you would have a 6% chance to get three keys.

If this were true then assuming at players 8 with 0% MF

After 10 runs you would have a 93% chance to get one key.
After 10 runs you would have a 43% chance to get three keys.

After 20 runs you would have a 99.5% chance to get one key.
After 20 runs you would have a 88.2% chance to get three keys.

After 30 runs you would have a 99.9% chance to get one key.
After 30 runs you would have a 98.3% chance to get three keys.

You want to get 9 keys and open 3 all three portals

At Players 1 with 0% MF

After 170 runs you would have a 6.5% chance to get 9 keys.

At players 8 with 0% MF

After 40 runs you would have a 62% chance to get 9 keys.

If somebody explains how the MF works for this particular drop I can
post calculations for that.

If keys are dropping like hotcakes and you have some MF then it is
likely that it helps. This means that players 8 and good MF could get
the keys very quick.

If keys are dropping like babies out of a man's body and you have zero
MF and/or are soloing then get some MF and other party members or don't
waste you time soloing for the keys with no MF.

Orion Ryder
8 answers Last reply
More about chance players players
  1. Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

    Sliver wrote:
    > "Orion Ryder" <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote in message
    > news:1123008835.837243.66680@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
    > > Someone mentioned to me that the odds of a KEY drop was 1/34.
    > <snip>
    >
    > According to everything I have read around battle.net the basin etc. MF has
    > nothing to do with the key drops. This makes sense as the keys are white. As
    > per for the odds? Well I have done 7 runs and found 3 keys (one of each).
    > First drop was with 2 players game 3. 2nd drop was 4 players 6th game. Last
    > drop was 7th game solo. So the keys are dropping like hotcakes and the
    > trading for them is ridiculous. Everyone I know has had at least one key
    > drop for them within 5 runs. I think the odds are a lot lower than has been
    > stated or we have just been damn lucky 8D

    Do these keys drop in single player as well, or is this just a realm
    game?
  2. Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

    "Orion Ryder" <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote in message
    news:1123008835.837243.66680@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
    > Someone mentioned to me that the odds of a KEY drop was 1/34.
    <snip>

    According to everything I have read around battle.net the basin etc. MF has
    nothing to do with the key drops. This makes sense as the keys are white. As
    per for the odds? Well I have done 7 runs and found 3 keys (one of each).
    First drop was with 2 players game 3. 2nd drop was 4 players 6th game. Last
    drop was 7th game solo. So the keys are dropping like hotcakes and the
    trading for them is ridiculous. Everyone I know has had at least one key
    drop for them within 5 runs. I think the odds are a lot lower than has been
    stated or we have just been damn lucky 8D

    --
    In a World full of Insanity
    Here I Stand.
    Sliver
  3. Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

    "Jason" <marlaque@hotmail.com> wrote in message
    news:1123048312.737771.83500@f14g2000cwb.googlegroups.com...
    >
    > Sliver wrote:
    >> "Orion Ryder" <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote in message
    >> news:1123008835.837243.66680@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
    >> > Someone mentioned to me that the odds of a KEY drop was 1/34.
    >> <snip>
    >>
    >> According to everything I have read around battle.net the basin etc. MF
    >> has
    >> nothing to do with the key drops. This makes sense as the keys are white.
    >> As
    >> per for the odds? Well I have done 7 runs and found 3 keys (one of each).
    >> First drop was with 2 players game 3. 2nd drop was 4 players 6th game.
    >> Last
    >> drop was 7th game solo. So the keys are dropping like hotcakes and the
    >> trading for them is ridiculous. Everyone I know has had at least one key
    >> drop for them within 5 runs. I think the odds are a lot lower than has
    >> been
    >> stated or we have just been damn lucky 8D
    >
    > Do these keys drop in single player as well, or is this just a realm
    > game?

    Haven't got a clue. Haven't played SP in year lol

    --
    In a World full of Insanity
    Here I Stand.
    Sliver
  4. Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

    "Sliver" ...
    > "Orion Ryder" <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote in message
    > news:1123008835.837243.66680@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
    >> Someone mentioned to me that the odds of a KEY drop was 1/34.
    > <snip>
    >
    > According to everything I have read around battle.net the basin etc. MF
    > has nothing to do with the key drops. This makes sense as the keys are
    > white. As per for the odds? Well I have done 7 runs and found 3 keys (one
    > of each). First drop was with 2 players game 3. 2nd drop was 4 players 6th
    > game. Last drop was 7th game solo. So the keys are dropping like hotcakes
    > and the trading for them is ridiculous. Everyone I know has had at least
    > one key drop for them within 5 runs. I think the odds are a lot lower than
    > has been stated or we have just been damn lucky 8D


    Well, this just pisses me right the f%$# off!

    I have done AT LEAST 40 (FORTY!) Countess runs looking for that key. Nada.
    Zilch. Squat.

    Grrrrrrrr........
  5. Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

    Brian Kastel wrote:

    > Well, this just pisses me right the f%$# off!
    >
    > I have done AT LEAST 40 (FORTY!) Countess runs looking for that key. Nada.
    > Zilch. Squat.
    >
    > Grrrrrrrr........

    Hopefully you got some good runes?

    I've done a few runs (<10) of all the key bosses, doing them all in the
    same game. The only one that has ever dropped a key for me is the
    summoner. I have two hate keys. This also seems to be the fastest run to
    do with a tele-sorc, at least with the FO/CL build I have - Nihlathak
    can be a bitch with the endless supply of popping corpses...
  6. Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

    In article <Ma3Ie.63555$Dw5.1265254@weber.videotron.net>,
    Nobody <anonymous@bogus.invalid> wrote:
    >Brian Kastel wrote:
    >
    >> Well, this just pisses me right the f%$# off!
    >>
    >> I have done AT LEAST 40 (FORTY!) Countess runs looking for that key. Nada.
    >> Zilch. Squat.
    >>
    >> Grrrrrrrr........
    >
    >Hopefully you got some good runes?
    >
    >I've done a few runs (<10) of all the key bosses, doing them all in the
    >same game. The only one that has ever dropped a key for me is the
    >summoner. I have two hate keys. This also seems to be the fastest run to
    >do with a tele-sorc, at least with the FO/CL build I have - Nihlathak
    >can be a bitch with the endless supply of popping corpses...

    After Mickey and other commented on the 'niceties' of doing Countess runs
    a few months ago, I've been rather busy running her. She drops quite
    nicely, especially if your 'hobby' is crafting Caster Amulets (Rals
    aplenty now!).

    Anyway, I run here with an FO/CL sorc, which is very nice for that. Merc
    now wields an ethereal Insighted Partizan and this combo is quite nice.

    So Countess is also easy. The Summoner I never ran, but will do due to
    your comment. Nihlatak I've always avoided, mostly due to his CE attack. I
    know how devastating CE is because I also MF a lot with a Meatgrinder (a
    summoner with maxed CE), but it seems that same build is probably best to
    take down Nihlatak, repeatedly.

    But perhaps I should just stick to running the Countess, and trade her
    keys for the other one, if/when I find one. I did about 15 runs since
    1.11, but she hasn't dropped a key yet. I'll continue trying though!

    Regards,

    Patrick.
  7. Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

    "Nobody" wrote...
    > Brian Kastel wrote:
    >
    >> Well, this just pisses me right the f%$# off!
    >>
    >> I have done AT LEAST 40 (FORTY!) Countess runs looking for that key.
    >> Nada. Zilch. Squat.
    >>
    >> Grrrrrrrr........
    >
    > Hopefully you got some good runes?

    One would hope.... Well, the best I got was one little Lem. Best after
    that was one Hel. The rest were mostly Thuls, Rals and Orts.

    > I've done a few runs (<10) of all the key bosses, doing them all in the
    > same game. The only one that has ever dropped a key for me is the
    > summoner. I have two hate keys. This also seems to be the fastest run to
    > do with a tele-sorc, at least with the FO/CL build I have - Nihlathak can
    > be a bitch with the endless supply of popping corpses...

    I tried Nihl, but the CE is too dangerous for my sorc -- instant death. I
    read on another thread about barbs using Grim Ward to "disable" the corpses
    for explosion, and I found an ammy of Grim Ward on one of my mules, so next
    time I try Nihl my sorc will be trying that.
  8. Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo2 (More info?)

    "Brian Kastel" <be-ar-eye-ay-en-kay-ay-ess-tee-ee-ell@tampabay.rr.com> wrote
    in message news:Vu_He.59921$mC.20609@tornado.tampabay.rr.com...
    >
    > "Sliver" ...
    >> "Orion Ryder" <orionryder@hotmail.com> wrote in message
    >> news:1123008835.837243.66680@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
    >>> Someone mentioned to me that the odds of a KEY drop was 1/34.
    >> <snip>
    >>
    >> According to everything I have read around battle.net the basin etc. MF
    >> has nothing to do with the key drops. This makes sense as the keys are
    >> white. As per for the odds? Well I have done 7 runs and found 3 keys (one
    >> of each). First drop was with 2 players game 3. 2nd drop was 4 players
    >> 6th game. Last drop was 7th game solo. So the keys are dropping like
    >> hotcakes and the trading for them is ridiculous. Everyone I know has had
    >> at least one key drop for them within 5 runs. I think the odds are a lot
    >> lower than has been stated or we have just been damn lucky 8D
    >
    >
    > Well, this just pisses me right the f%$# off!
    >
    > I have done AT LEAST 40 (FORTY!) Countess runs looking for that key.
    > Nada. Zilch. Squat.
    >
    > Grrrrrrrr........

    Sorry Brian. Some people seem to think it's easier with more players.
    Perhaps if you get a couple of friends and run all 3 each game you will get
    better results. GL!

    --
    In a World full of Insanity
    Here I Stand.
    Sliver
Ask a new question

Read More

Video Games