As you pointed out (and I actually looked up on my own several months ago) we are actually experiencing a decline in violent crime since 1994. A rather significant decline.
1994 was the year that the first popular violent first person shooter hit the market. Since that point violent crime has been in notable decline and shrinking fairly steadily. Blaming violent crime on violent video games just makes no sense from the statistical angle that many like you try to use. If anything using the same correlation argument, it looks like violent video games are causing violent crime to diminish.
Again as an old fart (military retiree, and trained operations research analyst with federal law enforcement back ground), you are totally off base in your assessment. You are also misinterpreting those statistics:
1) You dramatically understate the long-term metric, which is that
US society is still almost three times more violent than in 1960.
2) You are ignoring important variables that occurred in 1990s that have a much greater impact on lowering crime statistics such as the
huge increase in the number of law enforcement officers in service (Bill Clinton’s 100,000 cops), the adoption of
mandatory sentencing guidelines ,
three strikes and your out laws etc, which have put more criminals behind bars (a very good thing), but not truly diminished violence, nor addressed the $35,000 cost per inmate per year cost of keeping an inmate behind bars.
3) You ignore important factors like the
absolute amazing US economy that roared in the mid 1990s and to date remains strong with an incredibly low unemployment rate (<5%). The economy and crime generally show a very strong, direct correlation.
4) You assume that the overall trend is downward, when in fact, there has been
a 1.3% increase in the violent crime rate since 2004, and that future crime projection rates
predict that the next two generations of juveniles will be significantly more violent based on demographics and criminal profiling. This is supported by appalling school graduation rates (69% in 2000), which predict long term poverty. Also, lot of those violent cons that were put behind bars in 1990s have served their sentences, and are coming back on the street.
5) You ignore the proliferation and effect of advance criminal investigative tools like DNA testing in improving prosecutions of violent criminals, and the reality that a lot of criminals have been apprehended by federal law enforcement as a result investigations into terrorism under expanded Patriot Act powers (wire taps). You ignore the effect of other technology such as the installation of metal detection equipment, alarm systems etc.
There are a lot of things that just did not happen in the 1950s and the 1960s, even in communities that were in utter abject, destitute poverty, that are commonplace today. Crime was not something mainstream America thought about, most people really did not lock their doors in 1960. Now, every body worries about crime. In 1960, it was almost unheard of to speak back to, let alone assault a police officer. Assaults on teachers were also unheard of – we had a teacher on the west side gang rapped by her 13 year old students this past summer. There are definitely “no go” areas now in most American cities where even law enforcement does not respond at night. That is something that unheard of previously and also has resulted on under reporting of crime due to intimidation.
Mass media has been advocating a powerful, self-reinforcing, counter culture message for a long time. Trying to pin violence and declining social values on the gaming industry, let alone a single game is ludicrous, but when you look at the social values promoted by mass media and the entertainment industry, of which gaming is a part, the picture is different. My point being that one song, game, movie will not do it, but continued exposure to violence, irresponsible sex, drugs, and a host of other questionable social behavior, on cable TV, in games, in music, at the movie theatre etc. over years of development do have an effect. Obviously, the effect is greater on people that have less support from family, but I guarantee there is an effect. The advertising industry isn’t a $2-300 billion dollar industry because the tens of millions of dollars spent on a thirty second TV ad don’t work. No guy wants to admit that he bought a car because the ads featured some hot babe in it, but the statistics tell us its true. Anyone with children will tell you how effective TV adds are at selling kids cereal. Our pop culture contines to promote violence, drug use, irresponsible sex and other behavior. Weapons training results in the military and law enforcement tell us its true.
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