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This doesnt make it easier for AMD to be taken over,unless they plan on breaking AMD up and saleing them off, becouse what this does, is make the diffrent parts od AMD more valueable then the sum of them all togethor.
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But nVidia is only a littie bit larger than AMD 8O
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Wow --- jumped over to the Yahoo boards and skimmed through, they are crucifying AMD over there.....
Funny when it comes to money/financials, it is always to the extremes --either the sky is falling and the world is about to end or it's the sky is the limit and nothing in the world can stop it.
This might be a good time to sell AMD shares and buy Intel. Two reasons why this might be a good idea...Intel is at a really good price right now, and if they deliver a good Q1 earnings report, the stock could jump nicely. Let's face it, everything that Intel has been hammered on by the investors over the last few quarters can only improve this time around...pure speculation though.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/mb/AMD
that´s what i call brutality
AMD was not that much larger then ATI,AMSOUTH was larger then regions, and regions bought them out, a smaller, more aggressive,richer company can purchase a larger one. AMD has had very very few quarters that were profit, look at Nvidias record, plus they have avery good credit rateing, and a very nice record with bank of america. Also Nvidia has almost enough cash on hand, to pay all of AMDs outstanding debts, and if they found someone to buy the ATI division from them at the time of purchase, it would make it even easier...and SiS,Via,Intel, and Matrox all have cash on hand to be able to buy ATI for its value...and all have a reason to do so. Outside of private groups, theres only a few companys that can afford to injest AMD, even fewer could handle AMDs problems ontop of their own, of those that are left, you have Intel, IBM, and Nvidia, Intel would never get approval, IBM can afford to jump into competition with Intel and Nvidia in new markets all at once. On the other hand, you have Nvidia...an aggresive company, it shows solid profits, and a CEO, huang, who is bold,smart, and a leader on the move. He has been pushing Nvidia into new markets at a steady pace, and has yet to lose step. Everyone knows Nvidia wants part of the x86 pie, but cant get Intel and AMD to let them have a peice, Huang has shown before that he isnt scared to take risks if the end justifies the means...but it is inded only speculation,based on rumors
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Exactly right!
And short term trading of stocks is often like a pyramid scheme for exactly that reason. The bet ends when the unlucky last buyers near the top are left holding the bag from the "momentum" stock. It all works exactly the same way inversely in the downward momentum. Some unlucky folks somewhere will sell near the bottom, wherever it is, and will regret that.
This is why anyone who isn't a professional trader should instead follow the principles of Warren Buffett for example, IMO.
I do generally, and also I'm very diverse. Both Intel and AMD together are less than 1.5% of my portfolio back when both where higher. In a way, I'm betting that Paul O. won't be able to maintain a price war without getting the boot, and my time horizon is actually 15 years, during which time I expect a lot of chips to be sold in Asia.
hmmmm, this is always hard to judge, but Intels board sems to love Mr. Otellini, they are spreading out into new markets, growing, increaseing sales, regaining market share, cutting out old stock, all while showing a decent profit margin. I had the chance to meet Mr. Otellini in January of 03, and even then, he was aglow with his vision of Intel. He has been with Intel sence the early 70s, he has studied at the right hand of some of the greatest busines minds in the world, and his goal wasnt to outprofit AMD, becouse he said any company 10x the size as its closest competitor can make more, he said his goal was the make Intel a faster paced company, trim it, until they could respond to the curent and future markets quickly, and without a total restructure. His speach to Intel, when he took the helm, said many of the same things. He didnt promise a return to the profits of the early 90s, he promised to make then a new Intel for a new world, and ya know what? Hes done it. Intel is leaner, more agressive, faster to respond, and more efficiant then they have ever been. Even with the price war, they are on an increase across the line, it could be better with higher prices maybe, but all the board is seeing, is profits, less need to floor the market with advertisements, and the income they will soon be getting from the medical section. M. Otellini isnt going anywhere anytime soon, he is what Intel needed, and they know it.
yeah, good points. The CEOs of big companies (S&P500 types) that lost their jobs in the last couple of years even when the company was well run and profitable were said to be kicked out because the stock price went nowhere.
I bet Paul O. has a lot of room to play, but also that he's used up some part of it now. It's the big institutional shareholders that can apply pressure I think.
I dont think hes done anything but gain ground. Most of the big investors in Intel, are part of Intel, the next largest shareholder outside the board, is BGI, and they are firmly behind M. Otellini. Granted they are in for the long haul, haveing owned their stake of Intel sence the 80s, but they hold the proxt vote of many others, and even more Intel investers listen when they speak. Intel is rare in that the majority of its large shareholders have been with te company for many years,some even decades. They have sen Intel at its early 90s height, to the bottom after the silicone valley boom, and Intel has always survived. Up and down, but they survive and prosper. Unles Otellini messes up by the numbers, he will be at the helm for a while yet, hes a young man, and just aggresive enough to keep Intel on the track he wants
Gentlemen:
This is neither a stock split nor dilution of equity. The key phrase in the proxy was "authorization". This means they are asking stockholders to allow the issuance of x number of shares. They could concievably issue them to the existing shareholders, on a 1 to 1 basis and turn this into a stock split. Or they could issue them at a given price (determined by them and the brokerage firms they use to do the offering). Depending on the offering price, this may or may not be dilutive, as the company takes in large quantities of cash that raises shareholder equity, although it still may lower equity/share.
If they choose to hold onto these shares in the corporate treasury, it does nothing to the value of the outstanding shares.
While a doubling of authorized shares is huge, many companies ask for increases in authorized shares to pay for stock options, profit sharing, ESOP's etc.
Therefore, simply authorizing shares does nothing. It's not until they are issued and tradable that they will affect price/share, earnings/share, equity/share and all the other xx/share ratio's investors and analysts use to evaluate value.
I think your speculations, though, are right on the money in that AMD is essentially going to its shareholders "hat in hand" so to speak. At least they are asking!
nice points lance.
True, but none of us argued otherwise...what we said was, to everyone, this looks like AMD is in trouble. Its the sums that total more then the parts so to speak. If Barcelona was r600 were as great as AMD says,then they wouldnt wait to ramp, they would sale what they have, to bring in cash, they would not plan on eeding such drastic measures. Even if everyone is wrong, and it is nothing major, investors wont see it that way, nor will analysts. If you are right, then AMD is hitting bullets with hammers by doing this at this moment. It would be much better to release a groundbreaking product, and start to earn income, then do it, so people know you have a fighting chance, not delay,and delay, and then do it
Well, perhaps it is their plan to build a new fab in NY state.
| Quote : AMD has been struggleing with cash isues for a long time now...the purchase of ATI made it worse....and the thrashing of k8 by conroe was a sucker punch from right field that they werent expecting...its a formulae for disaster...at the time buying ati was smart..in hindsight it was stupid...i wish i could always see into the future...but im puting nvidia stock on my plans of purchase for monday morning |
it wasnt a bad move ,As I have railed for so long ,the planning was seriously flawed and now they propose to TAKE value from common stock.
If its not a split,AMD is a thief.and I lose 2 bucks
sell before its an official rip off.
Late again on the conversation. Ok, the last couple weeks I've questioned the sanity of the heads of AMD and wondered if the tech departments were smoking some strange stuff. Of course, Baron then questioned why I had bought any stock at all. But in defense, I first bought last fall when teh new cpu and the R600 were supposed ot come out shortly. They didn't, the stock fell, so I bought some more thinking that in a month or two some hardware would finally come out and the stock would go back up enough to recover my losses. Now this.
Since it has to be put to the stockholders for vote, I know where my vote will go, like, no way. Unfortunately, my few shares don't hold a candle to the big shareholders, should they vote for it. If the stock were to split, than I wouldn't care one way or the other, my valuation remains the same.
But I see that all the company heads are dumping their stock holdings. That means they know something they aren't telling, which might pull charges of insider trading. Can anyone spell Enron? Does anyone remember what happened to those in charge of Enron, including the accountants of the company? maybe there is a note of hope here, as I just checked and found that though the officers sold off some stock, their overall holdings are 10 to 30 times as much as what they sold. But they still took options to buy at much lower prices, which means they expect the price to go lower and that still smacks of insider trading.
Like you say Vern, if its a split, it doesn't matter much, if its not, AMD is playing not just theft, but grand larcony. At the moment, I don't know whether to put in a sell order now and take the losses or gamble that the stock will recover and rise. I know I live in Nevada, a gambling state, but this really tests the nerves.
that fab is part of the problem. Fabs are hugely expensive to make and maintain, and AMD doesnt have that kinda cash right now, they need to cancel until they weather this current storm and come close to paying off the diffrent loans they took out
I've no doubt they have intelligent people working out these scenarios. One thing they decided as I understand was that they could not go long term at below 20% market share, because it was too much of an R&D disadvantage. Of course, alliance with IBM helps enormously, but Intel's advantages had to be reduced at least some. Also, if you have Dell, HP, Lenovo, etc, as customers, and you come out with a good arch, you just have to be able to make enough chips to make it pay off as it should, with scale vs R&D costs.
Could you give a link. Not long ago, I read about insider buying at AMD, and the Yahoo info bears this out. The normal exercise and disposition of options are part of how executives make a living now of course. If you know of something unusual, please offer a link.
edit: WSJ tables AMD doesn't show up on the active insider list (which isn't long though). Noticibly Microsoft does have a lot of insider selling, but again, you'd have to know the norm, since it's actually a method of payment to employees.
you are only figureing in part of it though. They are to small to expand in every direction at once, they cant support that amount of growth, and yet, that is what they are trying to do, and look where it has gotten them? No cash on hand, more debt then they are worth, and a brand name that is worth more, broken up and sold seperatly then togethor. This, to me, doesnt seem like a company on the move, it sems like a company sinking fast
that seems a little overblown. It is very much to the disadvantage of HP, Dell, Lenovo, etc., for AMD not to thrive. Without AMD, Intel could take a nice chunk of the profits away from the OEMs, both in margins and ultimately sales. Right now, the OEMs are benefiting enormously from AMD, and they realize it I'm sure.
often, company leaders will sale some of their stock, back to the company,at current market value, for the company to use as it sees fit, includeing as leverage. Leverage is when a company owns enough of its own stock, that no one can buy them out, although AMD doesnt own that much of its stock, if it does double its comon stock, and nows owns the 3% that it bought from its leaders,then it will own around 57% of itself, enough to defeat any takeover attempt
| Quote : Could you give a link. Not long ago, I read about insider buying at AMD, and the Yahoo info bears this out. The normal exercise and disposition of options are part of how executives make a living now of course. If you know of something unusual, please offer a link.
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At the bottom of the link to the Inq at the beginning of this thread, it lists how many shares the various officers have been selling. I understand that buying or selling shares is part of where executives make their money, but I've long made the contention that their activities should be barred from their own company because of their priviledged information. If the AMD exec's have only sold a few shares, then there may be no problem, considering the total amounts they own. But if there is a pattern in their selling, in this case, it means that they are using their priviledged information to bail out before the public has such information. That is illegal and people go to jail for doing such things.
Vern,
I've already put a call to my broker. This has caught him by surprise. His advice is to hold for the moment. He hopes that the news is being mistated. I'm also waiting for a call from my son. He does a fair amount of accounting work and is heavy into the legal ends. One of the people he works with is from the IRS and that guy did a lot of the investigating on the Enron case and a couple other accounting scandels which resulted in long jail sentences for the people involved. If it starts looking too bad, my sell order will go in today, not Monday morning. I'll eat a 30% loss, but that's better than 60% or if the worst happens, 100%.
wow, this has been blown out of proportion bigtime. AMD, nor its exexcutives, have done anything illegal, they are hurting the company through stupidity, but that isnt illegal.
All of this, could simply be a means for AMD to stop any chance of a takeover, giveing the company more then 50% of total ownership now, while it hurts the image, will save the company later if someone, nvidia, is planing to try to buy them out. On the bright side, if Nvidia does buy em out, my shares in thqat company will go up!
Only reason to sell is either because you don't have a choice, or because you honestly believe the company won't thrive within your time horizon for how long you can be invested.
For myself, if I didn't have so many other great stocks, I'd surely have a higher portion of AMD, and when I rebalance next, I'll likely indeed buy some more.
But I'm starting here at only 1% of my portfolio, and it's not much risk, see?
Diversifying allows you to ride out the ups and downs without losing sleep. If AMD goes way down more, and the market in general gains 5%, I'll likely gain about 5%. If the market loses 5%, I'll lose close to that *temporarily*, because what matters for my stocks is the very long term outcome, like 15 years or more when I need some of the money.
| Quote : often, company leaders will sale some of their stock, back to the company,at current market value, for the company to use as it sees fit, includeing as leverage. Leverage is when a company owns enough of its own stock, that no one can buy them out, although AMD doesnt own that much of its stock, if it does double its comon stock, and nows owns the 3% that it bought from its leaders,then it will own around 57% of itself, enough to defeat any takeover attempt |
I understand what leverage is and how it can be used, but to do it in the manner that you suggest would be illegal. It would similar to conterfeiting, by printing up a lot of shares that either have no value in themselves or decrease the value of the stock held by the shareholders. True leverage is when, for example, a company has issued stock at a given valuation and it retains control of 51% of the shares. To simply try to get the 51% without compensation to the shareholders so their ownership value remains unchanged, as in a stock split, amounts to theft from the present shareholders. The courts typically look at such things in a highly unfriendly manner.
Since the SEC said that this split has to be approved by the shareholders, I can't imagine that the major holders (such as mutual funds) would voluntarily give up half their investment, nor would they desire to face their own stockholders if they did such a thing.
Looking at the third paragraph in the Inq which describes the stock sale as "in the best interests of the stockholders", it makes me wonder if the heads of AMD have gotten so used to lying that they actually believe their own lies. There is no way that a stock sale such as this could be in the best interests of the stockholders if it is anything except a stock split.
im not saying its right, but if the shareholders vote for it, then they are willingly giveing up money to make AMD money,or give AMD a safety net. It is only illegal if they did it without investor apporval, the government cant punish people for giveing money away to support a company
wow, the level of ignorance displayed on the subject of finance is amazing...
i was going to make a long post to correct a lot of misunderstandings, but lance525's post was excellent. GO BACK AND READ IT.
those of you claiming that this will dillute shares by half or cause harm to shareholders in order to benefit management are demonstrating your complete lack of knowledge...
cut eps in half because of unissued shares? the tech equivalent would be saying that you expect your HL2 fps to double because you increased your ram from 1 to 2gb. slly, yes? and expecting an eps cut in half looks just as silly to those of us who know finance...
in theory, the actual issuance has ZERO impact on the company
in real world in has some effect, because it signals the market that amd may have some future cash flow problems and therefore could cause a drop in stock price. (on the other hand, one could argue that th e market is already very aware of amd's potential cash problems)
jackxlj - please stop talking... you don't know what your talking about.
1) your post about takeover protection shows a clear misunderstanding as to the difference between unissued shares and treasury stock
2) your definition of "leverage" is incorrect
3) you said that amd has "more debt then they are worth" and that they need to "come close to paying off the diffrent loans they took out."
- both those statments are completly untrue. AMD has less debt than market capitalization and they are not in default on any loans
- you need to be more careful with what you say about a company and their creditors. your false statments about that could constitute libel. i doubt anyone will sue you over it
but still, you houldn't say things like that unless you know it
-tiger
| Quote : im not saying its right, but if the shareholders vote for it, then they are willingly giveing up money to make AMD money,or give AMD a safety net. It is only illegal if they did it without investor apporval, the government cant punish people for giveing money away to support a company |
1) it is not necessarily the current investors who will be giving amd cash
2) thy get stock in return - its called an INVESTMENT
3) illegal??? wtf, its a business decision.
everytime you talk, jackxlj, people get dumber. please stop.
jackxlj are you drunk?
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I think this is more of a neutral move, I believe they see an opportunity but don't have the cash on hand to jump on it.
Risk is risk no matter how you slice it, they are the king at losing money for years on end and sticking around. You also have to remember that semiconductors are a boom to bust type stock and particularly one of the most riskiest investments one can make.
You are correct in saying that a stock split is good news a reverse stock split is usually meant to raise stock price to prevent delisting which is really bad news.
Neutral is issuing more stock to get some cash. This can very well turn into good or bad news depending on how they put that cash to work. As I said above risk is risk and OPPORTUNITY only comes around so often.
By AMD doing this I think is more of a good sign than bad, but the semi market is a tough one, time will tell.
| Quote : This doesnt make it easier for AMD to be taken over,unless they plan on breaking AMD up and saleing them off, becouse what this does, is make the diffrent parts od AMD more valueable then the sum of them all togethor. |
Exactly. I don´t expect that they want to be taken over. Maybe they created the rumor of the takeover to increase the value of the new shares.
Could this move just be a precursor to a rights issue? This will have the affect of diluting the value of your current AMD stock, but if you see an upside to the stock price it also allows you to buy new shares at a discount to the market price. If the rights issue price is struck at a good price point it may be just what AMD need. i.e. access to a new source of funds at low cost.
If this is the case it does suggest they are over-stretched, but in a way it could be perceived as an after the event rights issue to cover the cost of the ATI acquisition, amongst other things. The fact that it is ‘after the event’ suggests that their financial planning department needs to polish their crystal ball a bit more thoroughly. I assume that the markets will punish them for this and any rights issue will need to be more heavily discounted because of this sloppiness.
It’s very common for companies to issue new paper (stocks, bonds etc) when they buy other companies, so it doesn’t have to be seen as a disaster.
The problem is that if Intel can turn the screw on AMD this rights issue, if that’s what it is, will end up being more of a bail out than asking for funds to pay for acquisitions and expansion. Which brings us to the issue of timing. If Barcelona is hot then make the rights issue call after they’ve proved that it is. If it’s not then make the call ASAP. Should be interesting to see this one play out.
you are so off,never once did i say they were in default on any loans. Also you are grosly wrong about what the doubleing of common shares will do to the companys outstanding stock.
http://www.findarticles.com/p/arti [...] _n16548322, this is a financial look at AMDs debt,placeing AMDs debt at 3.2 billion.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMD
this is amds current finanaces.
Se anything funny here? They had a negative profit margin, and a negitive return of equity. That is why I said they ned to pay off the loans,becouse it is hurting their bottom line as long as they have to pay them.
On to other things, total stock, equals an amount of ownership in said company, doubleing the stock, will lower said value by half, as you will own a small part of said company. I can do an apples in peices to make it easy for you
| Quote : wow, this has been blown out of proportion bigtime. AMD, nor its exexcutives, have done anything illegal, they are hurting the company through stupidity, but that isnt illegal. |
Part of the problem here is the lack of information. It doesn't help that the AMD execs filed this on a weekend, rather then on Monday. That at least implies that they may have been trying to do something illegal. The fact that they were selling off a lot of their personal shares at the same time hints at insider trading, which would be illegal if it can be shown that they knew there was trouble and they were getting out while the getting was good.
In addition, the wording they used in justifying the move is suspitious at best. By specifically bringing up the idea of issuing stock for anti-takeover purposes, the implication stands that such really is the case. Add to that the fact that the execs are selling off thousands of shares with options to buy back at $0 dollars, and it looks bad indeed. I won't say that anything illegal has been done or was intended, but for sure it was stupid. And for sure, it can't do anything good for the market share price.
Halbhh I have choices whether to sell or hold. The main questions in my mind are the timeframe involved and what this is going to do to the actual value of the stocks. In total of my portfolio, I can stand the loss, but at the same time, I hate to loose money if I don't have to.
its always a tossup, if it works or not. Hindsight makes everything wrong. If k10 and r600 demolish the competition, then this will be seen as genius, if they tank, it will be seen as the prelude to the end of the current board of directors...such a fine line to walk
Why do you insist on the nVidia-AMD buyout?
| Quote : you are so off,never once did i say they were in default on any loans. Also you are grosly wrong about what the doubleing of common shares will do to the companys outstanding stock.
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you're an embarrasment to yourself. Doubling unissued shares does absolutely nothing to th value of the stock or the price per share. these are unissued, not outstanding. you could raise the number of unissued shares by a trillion, it would make no difference to the value or anything else.
you could say that interest on loans negatively effects every company's bottom line... you don't have a clue about capital structure.
frankly, jackxlj, you're one of those people who knows just enough to be dangerous - but once again by opening your mouth you just show how ignorant you are.
You're going to break down the apple into pieces for me???!!!
hahahaha
to sum it up, unissued, oustanding and treasury shares are all different. take some time to educate yourself before you speak
ps. yes, amd has debt of about 3.2 billion and a market cap of about 8 billion, thus your statrment that they have more debt than they are worth was (as i pointed out) completely incorrect.
but you are only looking at debt and total worth, you have to add in the rest, such as the fact, that they are loseing equity and money, thus debt increases and worth decreases. On a side, by itself, thedoubleing of unisued shares does nothing, as long as they never act on it. But I doubt they will get approval to issue them, and then not put them on the market, to raise cash, and even if they dont, investor confidence will plunge even further. Shall we bet on wether AMD closes in single didgets on monday?
| Quote : Why do you insist on the nVidia-AMD buyout? |
Agreed. A massive pain for Nvidia due to ATi.
IBM buying AMD? Anyone ever heard of Lenevo?
Oh yes, ATi also make the Wii GPU, and we all know how well that is selling
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Doubling the shares, unissued or otherwise, does nothing to the value of the stock? I think you need to go back and study math again. Doubling the number of shares halves the value of the per share. The company is only worth a given amount of money. An amount of shares are issued based upon that value. If the share number is increased, the per share valuation is decreased in like percentage unless the company does something to increase its value in like percentage.
I dont insist on the nvidia buyout of AMD,its just my favorite theory,giveing everything. Even if Nvidia doesnt sale off the ati brand, they wont be monopoly becouse of Via,Sis,and Intel. They would only around 30% of the gpu market,hardly a monopoly. Also, they have been looking for a chance to make x86 cpus, but dont have the liscence, if they bought AMD,they would...even better, if they bought AMD, then they could sale ATI, and make a good portion of the cost of buying AMD back instantly. They have a high credit rateing, absurdly low debt, and very nice income. They also have a ceo who is hungry to expand, and aboard of directors that backs him 100%, and investors who are totaly behind them. AMD is at a low point, stock a shadow of its normal self, and who wouldnt spend 9 billion once if they had the chance to make 4 billion off of it a year?
there is an article over on overclockers.com on this news. Ed Stroglio makes some good points.
Overclockers.com article on AMD SEC filing
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Doubling the shares, unissued or otherwise, does nothing to the value of the stock? I think you need to go back and study math again. Doubling the number of shares halves the value of the per share. The company is only worth a given amount of money. An amount of shares are issued based upon that value. If the share number is increased, the per share valuation is decreased in like percentage unless the company does something to increase its value in like percentage.
this is exactly the stupidity i am talking about. doubling th unissued shares DOES NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT halve the value per share. a doubling of outstanding shares would that. So, yes, they are different. Math is not the problem for anyone here. Perhaps you should take a class in finance. oh now, thats right you'd rather just insist that you're right like that makes it so
if, and when, amd chooses to issue these shares the price at which it does so and the use to which that money is put will determine any dillution to the earnings per share.
But, i'm glad you finally understand that this transaction does nothing per se. Yes, it may change some people's expectations as i said before - in that it perhaps reflects a cash flow problem. Will there be a negative reactoin on monday? maybe so... but to suggest that the stock will be cut in half to say $7, is unbelieveably stupid.
| Quote : Question is will it be over time as a margins accentuation or all at once as a huge plunge?
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News like this often creates an oversold situation, so after monday buy back in for a quick 5-10% return. That is risky though, very much like day trading so don't take my advise on that, I will deny I ever suggested it ...
It's always tempting to spin the wheel, and I've done it a few times, but....I'm inclined to continue doting on the new baby here instead.
Saw this you might find a bit interesting:
"The selloff probably has excited private-equity firms like Blackstone Group, Bain Capital and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, which are sitting on record levels of cash. In a recent report, Credit Suisse strategist Andrew Garthwaite estimated there is $250 billion to $280 billion of uninvested private-equity money, which could support $1.3 trillion of leveraged buyouts. With private-equity firms continuing to raise new money, their investment firepower will only grow."
"sell off" is re the stock market this last week. excerpt from this weeks Barron's cover story, on Newstands everywhere.
| Quote : Question is will it be over time as a margins accentuation or all at once as a huge plunge?
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Well, after much thinking, I decided to put in a sell order. Only got $14.18 and will take a $2200 loss, but I decided that's better than hanging on and taking a worse loss. It also gives me the option of buying back in with the same amount of money later if the stock drops far enough to interest my gambling fever again.
Yeah, it drops to $7. Then I can buy back and double my holdings and if K8L, etc do well, I ride it up and make a fortune, less the $2200 loss of course. Of course, if the price goes up a bunch tomorrow, I'll be kicking myself.
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