Why AMD is in deeper trouble... - Page 2

I don't really understand how you gained 2 leaps in rep with Mr. JumpingJack for these statements here. Are there problems with AMD? Heck yes. They're being really stupid and not giving us some benches. Does this mean they're doomed? NO. For you to sit there and try to say that they ON PAR or maybe a LITTLE OVER is extremely ignorant of you. We have no clue for the real reason why AMD is hiding the info but you have absolutely no clue whether they're screwed or not. Stop preaching the doom and gloom.

Again, you have absolutely no clue if they have a plan or not. Just because they said they're restructuring does not in any way, shape, or form mean that's all they're doing. It is, again, very ignorant of you to preach more doom and gloom.

Again, it befuddles me as to how you got two reps with Mr. JumpingJack. He's almost always very neutral in his post and usually writes things based around facts. If you're not a fan boy of Intel then you certainly fooled me. Next time you want to start talking like what you have to say is factual...GET SOME FACTS. Is it stupid that AMD hasn't released any benches? That's up to the individual but most people agree it's not very sound. Are they making some bad choices about things? Most people will say "HECK YEAH!" and preach about what they need to fix. Do you have ANY facts that prove they have done nothing in a few months to fix this? NO! Why? They haven't released it. Do you have any facts that their new chip won't be as fast as they say? HELL NO! Why? Cause they're not releasing benchies.

I only have a few post but I've been reading the forums and THG for several years. It doesn't matter to you if you gain my respect, but you haven't. As soon as you start talking facts that can and are proven, then you will gain my utmost respect. If you think I'm sticking up for AMD and that I am a fan boy, you're mistaken. I'm a fan boy of innovation and what ever is top of the line currently. I'm also a fan boy of calling people out for making completely baseless remarks. Get some facts and post back here and I'll start respecting you. The same should go for everyone else.

P.S. Please for the love of god, stop this incessant doom and gloom about AMD. Especially from the Intel/nVidia crowd. Give it a few months and if everything is the same...maybe you can talk. But it's always safer to start talking doom and gloom when AMD has finalized the paper work for selling their assets off. Until then, no one knows anything until AMD makes an announcement.

This is exactly what I was thinking. You sir have gained two rep notches with me.

I think you meant, "Where's the beef!?"

But your point is good.

He made a point........not sure I would say it was a good one. But..........

LOL he got the quote wrong! Everyone is a critic and arm chair quaterback. When did you make your first million dollars? How many people here who keep putting AMD down can balance their checking account and how many even have a checking account?

Ok, I got the quote wrong, shamefaced.

I made my first million back in the 1970's. I have an accountant to figure out my year end taxes and my checking account probably far exceeds yours. I'm not perfect, I make mistakes, but I almost always end up with more money at the end of the day than I had the day before.

Finally, somone who has thought more than a minute on the subject. You're entirely right, of course.

Let's hope AMD has the good sense to be doing as you suggest.

Personally, I think the Intel ceo is foolish to try to eliminate AMD, and is likely to get fired eventually for wasting money. The reasons are complex, and I don't even care to spend time to lay out why again (for the 4th time).

Instead, what is more interesting is how AMD should change it's image via advertising. Intel has always won that game in a drastic fashion, for lack of competition.

Intel doesn't care about the R600 benchmarks as it has no effect on them directly but AMD certainly isn't going to put out AMD graphics bechmarks on an Intel quad core so everything waits on the K-10. Until the stock craters or the stockholders bring out the gallows for a lynching of Hector why should they release anything.

I'm glad there is someone that can read through all the sarcasm.

I was speculating that the desktop parts wouldn't be available until 08 (except high priced Agena FX parts), not about the desire of users to jump on board ASAP. Still, I hope I'm wrong so you can get your Agena soon.

PS: Did you see AMD's stock rise today? I wish you hadn't sold out so soon.

Yes, I saw the rise in AMD's stock price. I don't think it will last. If I had held on until today, I would have not lost quite as much money. But I put the money to use in a different stock and have done well with that, so I'm not too unhappy.

WHICH ONE?

Care to wager on R600...

I have been thinking very carefully about AMD's position and what they should be doing before deciding what they are up to. Here is an evaluation of the facts and conjectures on why AMD is acting as they are based upon what we know and what they are doing.

AMD is in a seriously bad financial situation. They are losing money and market share at a very fast rate. They are seeking very significant financing under very unfavorable terms. Their current microarchitecture is not competitive in the market, relegating their products to the low end of the spectrum. To make matters worse, their competitor is coming after the portion of the market they occupy with low-end chips that carry the positive image of Conroe. Further, their competitor has sped up their development cycle to include a new architecture every two years and improvements in the odd years and is sharing information to promote their product.

AMD has an upcoming product, which they have announced will be out in the third quarter and will out-perform the competition significantly, namely Kentsfield. They have reported very little in the way of benchmarks and have not provided samples for testing by independent sources, not even sources that have helped them in the past and should be unbiased. They are doing this despite their competitor more openly showing off a product that was scheduled for the fourth quarter.

The likely situations at AMD regarding development of their next generation processors can be categorized by development schedule and performance. The development schedule could range from a strong release in early Q3 with a quick ramp up in production to a paper release in late Q3 or early Q4 and no product until 2008. The performance of the product could range from something on the level of Nehalem, which their competitor will not have until late 2008 to a product that is on par clock for clock with Core2 and won't be competitive with Penryn. Something outside of these parameters could occur, but is highly unlikely.

Let's presume that AMD wants to surprise Intel with their amazing new chip. They would have to be sitting on a best case performance and decent development schedule with significant product in the fourth quarter. The question is, why would they make the specific but unconvincing claims they have made? Their statments have created more uncertainty than if they said nothing other than their release date and touted the architectural improvements that match the competitor. This would lead to the biggest surprise upon release.

The notable attribute of AMD's statement is that it has created uncertainty. We don't know what to expect and there are widely varying opinions. There is plenty of room for any interpretation that a viewer wants to make. The uncertainty is most valuable in buying time for AMD. If they show us what Barcelona can do right now, they will face the question of when it comes out and how production will ramp up. The way they are playing the game, they can "release" Barcelona in mid to late Q3, go through the benchmarking process, then face questions about ramping of production when Q1 2008 isn't so far away. If we don't get much in the way of benchmark data out of Tunisia, it is pretty certain that this is close to their game plan and there won't be significant Barcelona chips available in 2008.

More or less, AMD probably thinks they have a competitive or superior product, but it is behind schedule and they are stalling. Management is going to be spending a lot of time spreading uncertainty in an effort to get the company through 2007. They have already started their song and dance, and it will be going on for quite a while yet.[/b]

If you're all so concerned about AMD's fiscal health, then support them by buying their products instead of Intel's! I, for one, hope that AMD is able to pull through, as I don't want to be limited to only Intel CPUs in the future.

Yes, it is absolutely necessary if we want to get progressive, jaw dropping, performance increase year over year.... necessity is the mother of invention, and with AMD it becomes necessary for Intel to beat them and for AMD to beat Intel... ahhh, the circle of life.

It's not that I care so much about performance; it's that I don't like Intel.

A lot of people don't, and I have never really understood completely why?

NetBurst. My P4 fried and took the 'board with it. Although, strangely enough, I still prefer Intel for the mobile platform.

Yeah; that too.

I agree with Jack, this is well written.

I excerpted your writting to show a couple potential problems for AMD. Yes, their recent statements and actions in the past few months have created uncertainty, far too much in my opinion. I'll use myself in this example. I'm giving my present gaming computer to my son for his college graduation present, a machine with a FX60 and a X1900 XTX Toxic video card, so its not the latest and greatest, but still not bad by any means. My plan is to build a new gaming machine this summer. To plan a build, I need to at least have an idea what cpu, motherboard, and video card to buy. With the uncertainty that AMD has given, I have no way to plan on whether to buy from them or from Intel and Nvidia, or how much money to budget. The constant delays and uncertainty over the R600 video card has no doubt cost AMD many sales and will likely make people nervous even when the card does come out.

AMD may well think it has a superior or competitve product. But if it is behind schedule, I think it would be far better if they didn't do the song and dance, but simply said that they ran into a problem and will delay the part until a given time. I can deal with honesty far better than deception. The R600, for instance, has been delayed time and time again. Something's obviously wrong concerning it, whether its in the hardware or the software, but a problem is there. Statements like they have plenty of cards but are refusing to put them out for sale make no sense whatsoever. That type of thing breeds the very fear, uncertainty and doubt that's been a part of these forums for weeks. That also probably has been affecting AMD's stock market price. A fear also developes, at least for myself, that by the time the R600 is finally released, even if it does beat the 8800, Nvidia will have a 8900 out that will beat it. Thus the R600 may be a good card, but too little, too late.

So, this is my two cents worth. We will learn the truth in the coming months, but I don't know that we will be satisfied with it.

I sure wouldn't call doom on AMD, but AMD has worked themselves into a tight spot.

AMD never needed a superior product in the past to survive, but now thats a different story.

What used to keep AMD alive was they were the cheaper chip. PERIOD.

People bought AMD because when they walked into a store, the AMD machines were ALWAYS cheaper. Intel CPUs and chipsets were expensive, AMDs were not and neither were 3rd party AMD chipsets, allowing a lower overall cost of PC. This held true from K6 all the way to the end of Athlon XP.

AMD64 changed all that, and finally brought AMD into premium price range and profit. (It also allowed nV to start building premium chipsets with pricing that rivaled Intel's) But that was short lived as Intel noticed they were losing market share and went straight for the throat by flooding the market with cheap Pentium Ds.

Problem for AMD now is, Intel can keep doing it and hasn't let up. Thats the problem. When Pentium D supplies finally dry up Intel could drop the price on C2D and keep kicking while AMD is down. If the new, cheap E6X20 prices are any indictation and the huge price cut on Quads isn't a rumour then AMD does have a problem.

They have to cut costs and become the cheap brand they once were, while hoping Intel cuts them some slack and slowly raises their prices again or release a superior product. Of course if Intel keeps beating the price drum.....

Who knows. AMD isn't going away, but they do have a bumpy road ahead. Myself....I'm happy as hell. Fast cheap AMD and Intel CPUs FTW!!

Couldn't have possibly said it better.

Yeah no doubt. But then again the whole industry has been heading to high volume low margins for years. CPUs were the last hold out. Video cards can be the exception for now, but again the enthusiast market is just a niche.

People bitch about paying 300 bucks for a CPU now and I laugh. My girlfriend payed $475.00 for my first (4X) CD Burner, and that was wholesale from a distributor.

I remember a good mobo and a Intel 486DX2 66 would run $1200. But then again, there wasn't 3 out of 4 Americans owning a PC then.

How times have changed....


EDIT: WTF? No wonder piracy is so bad. Software pricing hasn't changed much in price in 10 years. Vista Ultimate is the same price my parents paid for DOS 5.0

I certainly hope they are worth it. The sites I looked at didn't list those, guess they must be harder to get one's hands on. However, there are multiple cores on each, so the price has still been significantly decreased per core. Still a heckuva margin.